This is one of a series of posts in which we eviscerate teams for their offseason blunders and grudgingly praise them for the occasional wily move. Guest author Melissa Rakestraw is a life-long Cubs fan and a first-time poster on UmpBump.com.

On October 14, 1908, the Chicago Cubs defeated the Detroit Tigers to become baseball’s world champions. It was their second consecutive title; they have failed to win a championship since that time. They haven’t even won their division two years in a row since then. But despite a century of futility, expectations around this team have been elevated after their come-from-behind NL Central title last year. And after watching previously futile franchises like the Red Sox and the cross-town White Sox take titles in ‘04 and ‘05 and then seeing their arch-rival Cardinals win it all in ‘06, Cubs fans (and Ryan Demptster) are tired of the lament, “wait ’til next year,” and in 2008 ask, “Why not us?” But that may be asking too much.

On the surface, it does appear that GM Jim Hendry has improved the team enough to repeat as division champs, but will these moves provide what’s necessary to win a World Series? For those looking for signs that the Curse of the Goat is still alive and well, the advent of spring training has already seen numerous oddities arise, which include the twisted testicles of Felix Pie, the fighting cocks of Aramis Ramirez, a fractured middle finger for Alfonso Soriano, the surgically repaired heart of Mark DeRosa and a convenience store smackdown suffered by Jose Ascanio. Let’s take a look at the offseason moves of a team whose season has already gotten off to a memorable start, regardless of the final outcome…

In ‘07 the Cubs had enough talent to overcome a slow start and make a second half push to win a weak division. But once they were swept by Arizona from the divisional round of the playoffs, it was clear that they were deficient in several areas. The most glaring weakness the Cubs suffered from was the lack of a #2 starter after Carlos Zambrano. Lefties Ted Lilly and Rich Hill certainly didn’t look the part and no one acquired in the offseason can be considered able to fill this role. The Cubs would have been well served to have made an effort to acquire Eric Bedard, Dan Haren, or Joe Blanton. The addition of any of these pitchers could have made them the clear favorite in the NL.

The Cubs have a fairly deep arsenal of young pitching prospects that surely would have made them competitive bidders. Although when asked why he never made an attempt to acquire Johan Santana, Hendry claimed that Santana refused to waive his no trade clause for a team that trained outside of Florida, I find it doubtful that the Cubs would have been willing to sacrifice the prospects necessary to complete the deal. In the past they have refused to deal top prospects only to have them fizzle out on the major league level (think Corey Patterson).

Hendry did make progress in upgrading his position players by somehow managing to unload the undisciplined and unfocused Jacque Jones on Detroit for utility man Omar Infante. This move set up Hendry’s acquisition of the crown jewel of the Cubs’ offseason - Kosuke Fukudome, the former Japanese-league MVP - who signed with Chicago for $48 million over 4 years. He was the primary free agent the Cubs targeted and his strengths should bolster areas that have been known weaknesses for the club. Defensively in right field, look for him to showcase impressive fielding skills and a rocket arm. Right field bleacher fans should not be surprised when they see him hitting the cut-off man or gunning down runners attempting to stretch singles into doubles. Moreover, the Cubs lineup is dominated by right handers, and his left-handed bat with some power and a high OBP was sorely needed. His combination of plate discipline, speed and power should make him an excellent fit in the 2nd or 5th slot of the batting order. PECOTA projects 550 plate appearances at .289/.401/.504, with 21 HR and 81 RBI.

Fukudome is a major upgrade for the Cubs in one position, but they also expect improvement at two other positions that they intend to fill from within. They allowed the defensive liability and offensively neutered Jason Kendall to walk in order to make room for top catching prospect Geovany Soto. Soto was impressive last season in his September call-up even though he had only 16 starts. Geovany had a stellar season in AAA and carried that success with him to the big league level where he showed plate discipline and the ability to drive in runs and hit for power. His defensive skills and his arm are well above average and offensively in 54 major league AB he had a line of .389/.433/.667. He looks poised to have a break-out season.

The other open position, still up for grabs, is center field. Felix Pie will be given the first opportunity to take over the reins at a position he could not hold last year. The 23-year-old product of the Cubs farm system has stellar defensive skills, and speed, but looked over-matched at the plate in ‘07, hitting only .215/.271/.333 in 177 AB. To succeed this season Pie must show a better command of the strike zone. He needs to cut down on a big looping lefty swing in favor of making contact, and must be more willing to sacrifice power in order to get on base. Unfortunately the Cubs brought him up through the minors as a #3 hitter when he is clearly not ever going to be a #3 in the Majors. They made the same mistake with Corey Patterson and he was either unwilling or unable to make the adjustment to being a table setter. Expect Pie to continue to languish at the plate if placed in the 8th slot which is where he likely will bat in the current projected lineup. It would serve Pie better to spend another year in AAA trying to adjust his approach at the plate.

The other top contender for the job in center is the Arizona Fall League MVP, Sam Fuld. Fuld is nearly as good a fielder as Pie and has shown that he is actually more advanced at the plate. Even if he doesn’t win the job in center, expect him to stick around as a 4th outfielder. Another avenue the Cubs are rumored to be pursuing is possibly dealing starting pitcher Jason Marquis to Boston for Coco Crisp. If the Cubs can pull it off, this would probably be the best option available, since Crisp is a proven major-league quality centerfielder, and the Cubs consider Marquis expendable due to the free agent signing of Jon Lieber and the moving of closer Ryan Dempster into the starting rotation.

The Cubs appear to have a solid pitching staff on the whole. They had the 2nd best ERA in the NL last season, led the league in strike outs, and were the most difficult NL team to manufacture runs against. Their top 3 starters, Carlos Zambrano, Ted Lilly, and Rich Hill, are certainly capable of combining for at least 45 wins. It’s most likely that Jon Lieber and Ryan Dempster will fill in the final two slots with youngsters Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Kevin Hart having outside chances. They don’t want to put Dempster back in the bullpen, even though in his career he is below .500 as a starter, and there was no point in acquiring Lieber if they did not intend to use him in the starting rotation. But placing much confidence in Lieber’s ability to stay healthy seems unwise due to his propensity for injury over the last 6 seasons. Since 2001, when he was the Cubs’ last 20-game winner, he has pitched over 200 innings only once and that was back in 2005. Still, at only one year and $3.5 million, the Lieber signing is not a huge gamble and, should he come up lame, they do have numerous young arms that could fill the slot.

What does make the Lieber signing rather curious, however, is that they refused to offer this same deal to Mark Prior, who has also been injury-plagued but is only 27 and has more upside than a 38-year-old Lieber. Prior has only made 57 starts in the last 4 seasons and hasn’t shown signs of the brilliance he possessed in 2003 when he won 18 games. But I would’ve rather seen them gamble on the younger player who has the potential to be a top of the rotation pitcher when healthy. When Prior balked at agreeing to a club option for a second year on the one year offer, the Cubs finally threw in the towel on one of the most heralded draft picks in franchise history.

So Prior no longer figures into the Cubs future, but they did re-sign oft-injured former phenom Kerry Wood to a one-year deal. Moving Dempster out of the closer role creates an opportunity for Bobby Howry, Carlos Marmol, or Wood to win the position in spring training. Woody seems the least likely to win the role in spite of being the hardest thrower. He has always had a propensity to walk batters and it’s uncertain if his arm can withstand working 2 or 3 consecutive days. Last season, Manager Lou Piniella tended to avoid using Wood in situations when the game was still in contention.

Carlos Marmol, possessor of the devastating slider and no doubt the closer of the future, may not yet be ready to move into the closer’s slot. While it is true that last season he had the 2nd lowest ERA (1.43) of all NL relief pitchers, and held batters to the 2nd lowest batting average (.169), the 25-year-old has not had the experience of facing the pressure of even a single major league save opportunity. Lou said last season that he liked having the flexibility of being able to bring Marmol into the game in the 6th, 7th or 8th when close games hung in the balance. He stranded inherited runners 87.8% of the time, which was better than all other NL relievers. Due to Marmol’s inexperience it is most likely they will start the season with veteran Bobby Howry in the closer role. Howry has done it before and it may benefit the club to ease the younger player into the role later on in the season if Howry falters.

In other bullpen moves the Cubs avoided salary arbitration with middle reliever Michael Wuertz by signing him to a one-year, $860,000 deal. The hard throwing right-hander was a solid contributor in ‘07 with a 3.48 ERA and stranded 86.8% of inherited runners, second in the NL to teammate Marmol. Neil Cotts was also resigned to a one-year deal, avoiding arbitration. He has a live arm but may return to the minors if he can’t regain the control that gave him the success he had in ‘05 with the White Sox. In a move with a lot of upside, Hendry dealt left hander Wil Ohman and utility man Omar Infante to Atlanta for Jose Ascanio, who has a 95+ mph fast ball and will likely begin the year at AA. Rule 5 draft pick-up Tim Lahey could also bolster their bullpen depth. These moves could serve dividends down the road and the Cubs have added young depth. Overall, I would say the pitching staff is slightly upgraded from last season, but more should have been done.

This offseason, the Cubs have made several moves that have improved their ballclub. It is still possible that they will attempt to bring in lead-off man and second baseman Brian Roberts, which would improve their lineup even more. That move would allow them to move Soriano and his strike outs down in the order and free up Mark DeRosa to fill the utility role which best suits him. But even if they are able to pry Peter Angelos’ pet out of Baltimore it probably won’t be a move that helps them capture the NL pennant. Their best chance of ending the centennial suckfest would be to acquire another top of the rotation pitcher. My prediction is wait ’til next year.

Offseason Grade: B

Additions: RF Kosuke Fukudome, SP Jon Lieber, RP Jose Ascanio, RP Tim Lahey, SS Alex Cintron, RP Chad Fox, RP Shingo Takatsu

Losses: OF Jacque Jones, C Jason Kendall, SP Mark Prior, RP Wil Ohman, OF Angel Pagan, OF Omar Infante

Projected Lineup, Rotation and Closer:

LF Alfonso Soriano - .299/.337/.560, 33 HR
SS Ryan Theriot - .266/.326/.346, 3 HR
1B Derrek Lee - .317/.400/.513, 22 HR
3B Aramis Ramirez - .310/.366/.549, 26 HR
RF Kosuke Fukudome - .294/.443/.520, 13 HR (Japan in 81 games)
2B Mark DeRosa - .293/.371/.420, 10 HR
C Geovany Soto - .389/.433/.667, 3 HR, 54 AB
CF Felix Pie - .215/.271/.333, 9HR

RHP - Carlos Zambrano - 18-13, 3.95 ERA
LHP - Ted Lilly - 15-8, 3.83 ERA
LHP - Rich Hill - 11-8, 3.92 ERA
RHP - Jon Lieber - 3-6, 4.73 ERA
RHP - Ryan Dempster – 2-7, 4.73 ERA, 28 SV

CL - Bobby Howry 8 SV, 3.32 ERA

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Today, it was announced that the San Diego Padres and free agent pitcher Mark Prior agreed on a one-year contract with a base salary of $1 million (worth a max of over $3 million with incentives).

Any discussion with the 26-year old righty is going to begin with his history of injuries so let’s just get that out of the way. I tried my best to piece everything together in the chart below (if I missed any, let me know) so we can get a clearer picture of what we’re talking about here:

The reasons for concern are self-evident. Over the span of five years, Prior has been on the disabled list eight times, and only once during this time was he able to become active at the end of the 15 days.  What’s even more worrying is that seven out of the eight injuries were related to the his pitching elbow and pitching shoulder. Now I’m no sports physician (and I’ve never stayed at a Holiday Inn Express), but those sound like really important parts of any pitcher’s body. Even now, we’re not exactly sure if Prior’s going to be ready to step on the mound anytime soon.

So why am I actually jealous that the Padres signed Prior?

Because this winter’s proving to be difficult for anyone to improve. Unless you have top-level prospects that you’re willing to part with, bolstering your lineup or rotation considerably is looking next to impossible. But this deal has about as much upside as anything else I’ve seen so far this off season. Sure, one can’t neglect the past injuries, but you can’t ignore these points either:

• Even if Prior’s rehab goes terribly awry, the Padres lose only $1 million.
• He has been a flyball pitcher throughout his career, which means Petco Park will feel like heaven  compared to Wrigley.
• The surgery he underwent that killed his 2007 season was actually the first time (believe it or not) that Prior went under the knife. His previous injuries were”treated” in the “wait-and-see” school of medicine. According to James Andrews (are there other doctors out there aside from this guy?), Prior had a good amount of chips just floating around in his shoulder that were previously undiagnosed.
• He’s not pitching for Dusty Baker anymore and thus won’t be asked to throw 211 1/2 innings in 30 starts as a 22-year old who had never previously come even close to hitting that innings mark.
• He’s still Mark Prior and he’s only two years removed  from a pretty good season despite the elbow injuries. And maybe it’s because the guy’s only two weeks older than I am that I’m saying this, but at 27, he’s still young enough to rebound.

To me, it looks like even the worst case scenario can’t be all that bad. He’s either hurt and can’t pitch (with the Pads out a million bucks) or he’s healthy enough to take the ball every five days and pitch what I suspect will be roughly league average numbers with a good amount of upside.

I don’t think that any team aside from San Diego really had a shot to grab him. Not only was he born in San Diego, he stayed in Southern California for college, attending USC. After the media attention he received in Chicago, a year of reestablishing his market value pitching in the pitcher’s park of pitcher’s parks that just happens to be in your old neck of the woods sounds mighty appealing, doesn’t it?

So I think that the Padres quite possibly have upgraded their rotation by a couple notches, replacing David Wells with Prior. I don’t know about you guys, but I’ll be pulling for Mark to make good in 2008. I loved seeing him pitch a few years ago, and I hope to see it again. Well, maybe the Cubs fans will disagree…

It’s amazing how the more things change, the more they stay the same. Looking at today’s headlines I noticed…

1. The Red Sox and Yankees are about to enter a bidding war.
2. Alex Rodriguez’s new contract (which hasn’t even been finalized yet) is creating some controversy.
3. The Cubs are hopeful Wood and Prior will contribute next season.
4. The Mariners are hoarding all the Japanese players.
5. Mike Hampton is hurt.

I think now this is going to get interesting. Now that teams can make offers to free agents from other teams, we’re going to see some fun things happen.

Here are some of the more interesting plot points:

1. Mike Lowell is still unsigned. The Yankees still need a 3B. The Yankees still have more money than God.

2. Mark Prior will become a free agent if the Chicago Cubs don’t tender him a contract. Who’s gonna roll the dice on Prior?

3. Andruw Jones had a terrible season. But Scott Boras still thinks he’s worth $7.2 billion a year. Is he right?

4. Barry Bonds says he still wants to play. Logic says he’ll be a DH. But where? And will the impending Mitchell report scare teams away?

5. A-hole.

6. The Nationals have been mentioned as possible destinations for Andruw Jones and Aaron Rowand. Clearly, somebody went and convinced Washington that it’s a real team. But will anybody want to play for the ex-Expos?

7. Kosuke Fukodome is gonna need a nickname. Kofu anyone?

Last season, after a year spent on the DL, White Sox DH Jim Thome hit 42 HRs, 109 RBIs and a .288 AVG on his way to the comeback player of the year award.

This season, Thome won’t take anybody by surprise. But here’s a list of players who are top candidates for 2007 Comeback Player of the Year:

1. Sammy Sosa Slammin’ Sammy is back from baseball purgatory. He spent a year sitting on his duff in his native Dominican, after a couple of seasons with the Orioles that saw him completely implode as a hitter and a Congressional hearing that took a lot of the shine off his formerly glowing image. Now he’s on the Rangers and spent most of spring training absolutely tearing the cover off the ball. If Sosa can keep it up, he’s the logical choice for the CPOYA, but then again voters might find it hard to vote for a guy who forgot how to speak English when asked about steroid use and who, not so long ago, got caught with a corked bat.

2. Garrett Anderson One of the most liked players in the game, Anderson didn’t live up to expectations the last few seasons due to injury. This is a guy who hit 235, 28, 29, and 29 homers between 2000-2003. The last three years he’s hit 14, 17 and 17. That’s not awful, but it’s not what we cam to expect from Anderson. This year, Anderson says he is finally healthy. He’s only 34, so he should still have gas left in the tank. If his injuries really are a thing of the past, he could be primed for a big year.

3. Dmitri Young This guy has nowhere to go but up, after getting cut by the Tigers last season, then entering rehab following a domestic violence incident. Now he’s playing first base for the Nationals, which might be an even bigger challenge than quitting drinking. But don’t underestimate him. He can hit. In 2003, he hit 29 HR, 85 RBI and .297 AVG with the Tigers. You don’t luck your way into those numbers. And he was probably drunk. Imagine what he will do sober.

4. Wade Miller It seems like forever ago that the Astros were planning their future around Miller and Roy Oswalt. Miller won 16, 15 and 14 games from 2001-2003. But the last few seasons, he just couldn’t stay healthy. Now he’s earned a spot as the Cubs fifth starter. A return to form could be the difference between the Cubs finishing in first or last.

5. Mark Prior and Kerry Wood Stranger things have happened, but one is scheduled to open the season in the minors and one will start on the DL, so don’t hold your breath.

Kerry Wood and Mark Prior could start the season on the Chicago Cubs’ disabled list. In a move that surprised no-one yet frustrated many, Cubs manager Lou Piniella declared yesterday that the status of his two hurlers is still up in the air. For Prior, a career that so sparklingly began in 2003 when he propelled the Cubs to the NLCS has come to a screeching halt. The 26-year-old was 1-6 with a 7.21 ERA last season before bowing out with a strained right shoulder late in the summer. He is 0-1 with an 18.90 ERA in two spring appearances, allowing seven runs in only 3 1-3 innings.

Wood, who strained his right triceps while pitching against Milwaukee on March 11, threw 25 pitches off a mound in Mesa, AZ on Monday. The swashbuckling Texan still has not fully recovered from a torn right rotator cuff that seriously hampered his long-term prospects. At best, Wood would secure a spot on the active roster as a one-inning reliever, a far cry from the his twenty strikeout performance at Wrigley during his rookie campaign.

In a related story, Cubs fans everywhere have begun to relate to Bill Murray in “Groundhog Day”. As cinema-goers were left to ponder how many times Phil Connors would dreadfully awake to I Got You Babe, baseball fans throughout the country are left to answer a similar question: How much more of this repetitive disappointment can the Chicago faithful take? As far as I see it, we’re two seasons away from another devastating fire. Sell your houses, people.

And it’s official - Harry Carey is rolling over in his grave.

We’ve all drafted teams that would have won fantasy leagues if it weren’t for the injury bug. I know it, you know it. Avoid the madness! I have detailed the highest injury risks fantasy baseball has to offer. Rip off a friend, work a trade, do what you have to do. Just get rid of these players immediately – they will be on the DL by the All-Star break.

BARRY BONDS
Bonds recently passed Babe Ruth for 2nd place on the all-time HR list. His knees are shot, his back is stiff and he has publicly acknowledged that he does not foresee himself passing Hank Aaron. Does he really have anything else to play for? Bonds takes a verbal beating every time that he takes the field, it’s only a matter of time until some psycho throws a needle at him, and the Giants are 3 ½ games out of first place in the NL West. Bonds has been out of the starting lineup an average of once every fives games this season. The well-rounded lashing that Bonds takes on a daily basis will catch up to him…soon.

KERRY WOOD
Sorry Cubs fans, but the curse continues. Despite solid performances in his first two starts after returning from right shoulder surgery, Kerry Wood’s third start had to be pushed back to “give him more rest”. Ummm, shady. Cubs manager Dusty Baker refuses to pitch Wood on less than five days rest. Wood’s curveball embarrasses hitters, but it doesn’t help that he can only throw it 50-80 times before undergoing more shoulder surgery. As long as Wood continues to throw that curve – and he will…he’s a stubborn, swashbuckling Texan – expect DL stints to follow.

Read the rest of this entry »

Eric Gagne Dodgers reliever Eric Gagne allowed one hit in a scoreless ninth inning Monday to earn a save in his second and final rehab assignment for Triple-A Las Vegas. Gagne got former major leaguer Curtis Pride to ground out to shortstop to end the 8-6 victory.

Gagne said he is scheduled to return to the Dodgers on Thursday, when they return home to play Philadelphia. The former All-Star has looked great during his rehab stint and is primed to regain his role as the Dodgers’ closer upon his return to the majors. It’s likely that it’s too late to pry Gagne away from your fantasy brethren, but it’s worth a shot. Try packaging two good relievers and see if you can catch someone off guard.

Mark Prior Pitching at the Cubs’ Class A affiliate, Prior struggled to get out of the second inning of his rehab appearance on Monday. The 25-year old righty threw 44 pitches in two innings, giving up four hits and three runs. He’s been on the disabled list all season as he works his way back from a sore shoulder.

With the Cubs mired in a season-long slump, don’t expect Prior to be rushed back into the rotation. The Cubs plan to start Prior in atleast two more rehab games before assessing his situation. Prior is a top-notch starter that is worth acquiring if you have trade bait and can afford to stow him away until he reemerges in the majors in mid-June.

Jorge Cantu Devil Rays 2B Jorge Cantu starts a week-long rehab assignment Monday at Double-A Montgomery and is expected back from a broken left foot around June 5.

Despite putting up remarkable numbers, Cantu is still an under-valued fantasy commodity. With eligibility at 2b and 3b, Cantu is coming off of a season in which he led the Devil Rays in homers, RBI’s, hits and doubles. Try to trade for Jorge before he regains full strength and starts mashing again at the Trop.

Carl Pavano Carl Pavano had a bone chip removed from his right elbow by Dr. James Andrews last Thursday, according to the New York Post.

Run for your lives! Anytime you hear the words “Dr. James Andrews” in regard to one of your pitchers, you might as well grab a drink, toast to better times, grin and bear it. Pavano is still hopeful to return before the end of 2006, but at this point, the injury-plagued Pavano holds little to no fantasy value. Stash him only if you have ample room on your DL.

Rich Harden Oakland ace Rich Harden could return to the Oakland rotation as early as this upcoming Sunday. He has been out of action and on the disabled list since late April due to a strained back muscle.

Now may be the perfect time to try to acquire Harden. With a lengthy injury to begin the 2006 campaign, fantasy owners may be growing restless with his prolonged abscence and may not have heard the good news about his return. Offer a respectable trade for Harden in an attempt to make an antsy Harden owner bite without thinking things through.

Stay tuned for my next article in which I’ll tell you which players WILL be injured by the end of this month.