Via MLB Trade Rumors comes this tidbit from an article by the Miami Herald’s Israel Gutierrez, who feels that the face of the Marlins’ future is ace Josh Johnson and that the Marlins need to sign Johnson to a long-term deal. Gutierrez says:

If Hanley Ramirez was worth paying for, then Johnson is at least as important, if not more.

Over the last five seasons, Ramirez has been worth 22.2 wins more than a replacement player. Johnson, meanwhile, has been worth 8.5 wins over replacement.

Even this year, with the season Johnson is having, HanRam has been worth more.

Maybe Gutierrez thinks Johnson is “more important” because he thinks ace pitchers are more scarce than slugging shortstops? Maybe, but it’s not true. I appreciate that aces don’t grow on trees (all you need to know about the scarcity of aces can be found in Nick’s annual unquestioned aces post — this year there were only 6 unquestioned aces). And there are more than a few shortstops who can swing the bat (see: Tulowitzki, Scutaro, Jeter, Tejada, Escobar, Rollins). But there is a huge gap between the shortstops I just mentioned and Ramirez, whose 2009 SLG is .554 (The shortstop with the second highest SLG is Tulowitzki, at .480).

As Fangraphs recently pointed out, Ramirez will likely go down as one of the best short stops ever, and is on course to be in the top three (behind Honus Wagner and A-Rod).

Conclusion: Johnson is good, but Ramirez is better.

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

According to Wikipedia, Flo Rida is “an American rapper”. I did not know this.

Wikipedia also tells me that, “Mail on Sunday was Flo Rida’s solo debut album; its lead single “Low”, featuring T-Pain which was a #1 hit for ten weeks in early 2008. Flo Rida’s single “Right Round”, featuring Ke$ha, from his new album R.O.O.T.S., spent six consecutive weeks at the top of the Billboard Hot 100″. I did not know this either.

Now, this is not a post about how incredibly uncool and out of touch I am with the popular music scene (we still call it “pop music”, right? Just checking). But this is a post born out of anger.

Because of this man named Flo Rida, I will be unable to watch the first few innings of the Mets-Marlins game on Saturday.

…

Allow me to explain.

On Saturday the 11th of April, Flo Rida will be performing a concert at Dolphin Stadium following the game. To accommodate the show, the Marlins have decided to move the start time of the game up one hour to 6pm.

Now this would be all well and good if it were not for the fact that MLB and FOX have a contract – all games in play before 7pm on Saturdays can only be aired on FOX, regardless of whether or not FOX gives a crap to air these games.

So you know what that means, kids? I can’t watch the game until 7pm, when SNY (the Mets channel here in NYC) begins broadcasting. I can’t even go on the internet to watch it because it’s the same fricken’ situation down in Miami. I just. can’t. watch. the. game.

Hulk get mad.

I can only hope that instead of Ron, Keith and Gary, the SNY team decides to have Ralph Kiner open up the telecast. I’d love to hear Ralph try to explain this %#$!-show on-air (Welcome to Mets baseball. This is uh… I’m uh… Well, we open up the telecast in the fourth inning here in uh… There’s a musician named Flo Rida who’ll be playing tonight… And as a result, here we are in the second inning, with Darryl Strawberry coming to bat).

It might be the only thing that could make this okay.

P.S. For the record, I am not proud of that Kiner joke. I mean, it’s not even funny. I love Ralph. Plus, I don’t know why I’m blaming Flo Rida instead of the stupid Marlins and stupid FOX and stupid MLB.

I disappoint myself in so many ways…

Hat tip to Metsblog for the Mets info as always

This is one of a series of posts in which we brashly belittle each team for their brutal offseason blunders and praise them where possible for any potentially prescient ploys.

The recurring tragedy of the Florida Marlins is that they are so young and talented, that in each of the past few seasons they have been only a piece or two away from some serious postseason contention, despite having the lowest payroll in the Major Leagues. This is a credit to the deft running of the organization by long-suffering GM Larry Beinfest, as well as a big steaming discredit to the tightfisted luxury tax profiteering of owner Jeffrey Loria.

This year is much the same. Make no mistake about it – the 2009 Marlins, although largely young and untested, have a chance to be good. As in really really good.

As usual Marlins conducted yet another fire sale this offseason, getting rid of just about anyone who was arbitration eligible, in what has become an annual ritual of sorts in South Florida. But what makes offseason a bit different from recent years is that none of the guys they shipped out are actually all that good, or actually all that necessary.

First they shipped out-machine 1B Mike Jacobs (.299 OBP) to the Royals for talented young reliever Leo Nuñez (2.98 ERA). Then they sent mediocre closer Kevin Gregg to the Cubs for fireballing minor-league reliever Jose Ceda. Finally they dealt league average and no-longer-young corner outfielder Josh Willingham along with starting pitcher and BABIP mirage Scott Olsen to the Nats for slick-fielding 2B prospect Emilio Bonifacio and two other minor leaguers.

All of these deals make a certain kind of sense, if you think about it from a Marlins perspective.  Jacobs had to be moved to clear the way for hot prospect Gaby Sanchez, while Nuñez and Ceda can fill in the bullpen holes left by Gregg and free agent departee Joe Nelson for a fraction of the cost.  Meanwhile, Olson was traded at a “sell high” moment, as he is unlikely to ever repeat his 4.20 ERA from last season, and Bonifacio gives the Marlins a major league-ready 2B option if they decide to move Dan Uggla, whom the team has already stated it has no intention of signing to a long-term deal.

Meanwhile the Fish still have an impressive core of young talent.  Hanley Ramirez is a monster at the plate and on the basepaths, and if they can stay healthy, starting pitchers Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad all have ace potential, which means that along with a healthy Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins actually have the best pitching rotation in the NL East, believe it or not.

The bench is also a source of strength.  Alfredo Amezaga is the best utility man in baseball for his ability to provide a plus glove and reasonable offense at any position on the diamond. Dallas McPherson provides some nice left-handed pop, and Wes Helms, whom the Fish got for a single dollar last year, is a serviceable fill-in at the corners.

Areas of potential weakness include the outfield and the bullpen, but if Jeremy Hermida continues to make strides on offense, Cody Ross continues to only ever hit home runs, and Cameron Maybin even vaguely approximates the Willy Mays impression he did on both offense and defense in a small sample size last fall, the outfield can become a strength, especially defensively in the cavernous Dolphins Stadium outfield. Plus, if untested flamethrowers like Matt Lindstrom, Taylor Tankersley, and Ceda can step up in the pen then leads may be safe after all.

Volstad had a 2.88 ERA in 15 games

Perhaps the biggest weakness is infield defense.  Ramirez has improved a bit from his rookie season, but his glovework doesn’t exactly remind anyone of Omar Vizquel. Meanwhile Jorge Cantu is a butcher anywhere you try to put him, and Dan Uggla’s embarrassing 3 errors in last year’s All-Star Game were not exactly a surprise to Marlins fans.  Not sure how this problem can be fixed, but at least these guys get back at the plate the runs they give away in the field, having smashed a combined 93 homers between them last season.

Nobody is going to pick the Marlins to win the East, nor do they look like winners on paper. But a team this young and this talented is going to be loaded with upside, so while things could easily go wrong, if a few things break right they could also go very very well.  And even if they don’t win the division, there is always the wild card, which is the road the Marlins took to their last two World Series titles.  Consider the Fish my dark horse pick for contention this season.

Which brings us to the offseason grade. It’s always difficult to give the Marlins an offseason grade because they don’t play by the same rules as everyone else and it all depends on how you evaluate their goals.  GM Larry Beinfest probably deserves an “A” for his personal grade every year for even managing to come close to contending with such a constricted payroll, and if you evaluate the Marlins by the goals that they set for themselves then they are also doing well, making money hand over fist by pocketing the difference between their luxury tax-padded revenues and their miniscule payroll.

Even if you evaluate the Marlins strictly on what they do toward constructing a competitive team, you have to give them some credit this year because they mostly got rid of flotsam while getting value in return.  They do get docked however, for probably not getting as much as they could have by trading Olsen and Willingham together instead of separately, and for letting valuable reliever Joe Nelson walk when he could have been signed fairly cheaply (and immediately was, by the cross-state Rays).

But in the end, you’ve still got to punish them a good deal for Loria’s pure, unadulterated greed.

Offseason Grade: C+

Acquisitions: IF Emilio Bonifacio, P Scott Proctor, P Jose Ceda, P Leo Nuñez

Losses: 1B Mike Jacobs, OF Josh Willingham, P Scott Olsen, P Kevin Gregg, P Joe Nelson, OF Luis Gonzalez

Projected Starting Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

C John Baker
1B Gaby Sanchez
2B Dan Uggla
3B Jorge Cantu
SS Hanley Ramirez
LF Jeremy Hermida
CF Cameron Maybin
RF Cody Ross

SP1 Rickey Nolasco
SP2 Josh Johnson
SP3 Chris Volstad
SP4 Anibal Sanchez
SP5 Andrew Miller

CL Matt Lindstrom

- Hot Offseason Index -

Heading into the offseason, the Marlins had 17 arbitration-eligible players. The notoriously cheap Fish wasted no time in starting to deal them, and have already shipped out Kevin Gregg, Josh Willingham, Mike Jacobs, and Scott Olsen.

We’ve gotten used to watching Florida bring ‘em up (it will be Cameron Maybin this year) and ship ‘em out, World Series victories or no. For years, they’ve claimed they can’t afford to keep their young stars until they’re allowed to build a new stadium. But recently, there was a major breakthrough on that front, as a judge ended the lawsuit blocking them from breaking ground. (Of course, there might well be an appeal by the time I post this, but for now the issue is resolved.)

Does this mean that the Marlins will now, maybe, finally start keeping some of their good players around long enough to reach a critical mass and add to their ‘97 and ‘03 World Series wins? Aside from beefing up their pitching a bit (an incentive-laden deal for Carl Pavano is a mutually beneficial idea), they shouldn’t need to do too much to contend; down on the farm, they have a healthy stockpile of young talent to supplement the young stars currently on their major league roster, and the front office has made it clear that they don’t expect the team’s offense to produce at the rate it did last year, and so will focus this winter on improving their pitching, defense, and speed. I can’t argue with that.

And yet….and yet.

One reason the Marlins have been agitating for a new stadium is that they have the worst attendance in baseball (they share the Miami Dolphins’ stadium). But is it unreasonable to suggest that part of the problem is that the fans get no chance to become attached to their players? Whether or not they’re arb-eligible, the Marlins are almost always willing to deal, and always willing to listen. The turnstile approach may lead to low payrolls and the odd World Series ring, but it doesn’t necessarily win the hearts and minds of fans.

I have never accepted the proposition that money is as tight in Florida as the front office claims — MLB these days is flush with cash, and the small-market teams do benefit from revenue sharing and luxury taxes. Florida has been very good at evaluating young talent, and with a little more effort on the part of the FO — and by signing some of their best young players to long-term deals before they hit arbitration — they should be contenders or spoilers in the NL East almost every year. New stadium or no.

-What They Need index -

Most people have realized by now that the Marlins have one of the best offenses in the National League – an offense which has kept them in the NL East race all year long.  The Marlins also have a pretty nifty bullpen, led by closer Kevin Gregg (23 SV, 2.47 ERA), which has posted the 4th best ERA in the National League, at 3.74.

But everyone has been assuming that the Marlins will eventually fade from the playoff picture, thanks to an abominable starting rotation.  After all, this is the same Marlins team who tabbed Mark Hendrickson of all people to be their opening day starter.  The Mark Hendrickson who has gone on to post a 6.09 ERA this season.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the consensus narrative that the Marlins shoddy rotation would be the downfall of an otherwise solid team.  Some new guys emerged, some old guys stepped up, some crap guys pitched their way into the bullpen, and some hurt guys came back from injury.

And suddenly, the Marlins rotation became awesome.  Now the starting five is led by de facto ace Ricky Nolasco (10-6, 3.94 ERA), backed by the continuing-to-surprise-the-naysayers Scott Olson (6-6, 4.04 ERA), and the out-of-nowhere rookie sensation Chris Volstad (2-1, 2.38 ERA in four games).

And now with the return from the DL of two top young hurlers, Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez, the Marlins rotation has gone from completely suspect to rock solid 1 through 5.

All of these five guys are good, and guys like Johnson, Sanchez, and Volstad have the potential to be truly great on any given night.

And with that offense, these guys don’t necessarily have to be great every night anyway.  With that offense, they just have to be decent enough, and that seems like an assignment they can handle.  Which should be a scary thought for the Mets and the Phillies.

These Marlins probably aren’t going to go away anytime soon.

Well, this is shaping up to be one of the quieter trade deadlines in recent memory.  Nevertheless, as I have done every year on this blog, I’ll be here all afternoon to give you hasty reactions to each trade as they happen.  Newest trades will be on top

* * *

Boston dumps Manny Ramirez, cash on the Dodgers for Pirates OF Jason Bay.  Pirates receive Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss

Sigh. Yet more confirmation of Ned Colletti’s severe case of big-name-itis and Frank McCourt’s mad quest to acquire as many members of the 2004 Boston Red Sox as he possibly can.  The Dodgers are weakening their defense terribly.  Manny is the worst defensive left fielder in all of baseball by virtually every measure there is.  And it is not even all that close.  The short left field in Fenway was just about the only park in the majors where he was even serviceble. Now the Dodgers have huge defensive holes at third, short, second, and left.  Not to mention the huge logjam in the Dodgers outfield being made even worse.  If the Dodgers play anything other than Manny-Kemp-Ethier most of the time, this deal doesn’t really even help anything.  But you know that Torre is going to be sorely tempted to run Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre out there as much as he possibly can.

As for Boston, this is an insanely good deal.  It is ridiculous that they got JASON BAY, who is locked up through 2009 for just Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss (and Manny).  Those are two guys they didn’t even want!

As for the Pirates, this has to be a bit of a disappointment.  LaRoche has a chance to be good, but this is not anywhere near the return you would have expected for a year and a half of Jason Bay.

Reds ship Griffey Jr to the White Sox for P Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

This is a pretty baffling trade for the White Sox, one which smacks of big-name-itis and favorite player obsession.  Griffey can still hit a bit, and of course both 1B Paul Konerko and CF Nick Swisher are struggling at the plate this season, so playing Griffey in center can allow Ozzie Guillen to bench one or the other with Swisher either sliding over to 1B or riding the pine, but Griffey is not *that* much of an improvement over Swisher, and playing him in center is just asking for another groin pull or hamstring tear.  Not a bad deal for the Reds though, as they get out from under Griffey’s salary and buyout to an extent (splitting them with the Sox), and they also get Masset, who is a mediocre but usable swingman, and Richar, who is only 25 and was once heralded as the future 2B of the ChiSox, and may yet become at least a handy piece of the bench or something.

Mariners trade Arthur Rhodes to the Marlins for minor league P Gaby Hernandez

Meh. The Marlins already had a pretty decent bullpen (4th in the league in bullpen ERA), so this is just adding a tiny extra piece. Plus, Arthur Rhodes is old and has only pitched 22 innings this year, so he’s likely to wear down and pitch not quite as well down the stretch. But it does let them get the ball out of Taylor Tankersley’s hands and let him try to rebuild his shattered psyche down at AAA. Gaby Hernandez is a B-grade prospect, but that is not a bad return for a Mariners squad that is always in need of pitching and which was going nowhere this year.

90 games into the season, the Florida Marlins remain in the hunt for the NL East crown, and they have done so largely on their ability to knock the crap out of the baseball. They’re currently in fourth in slugging percentage among all 30 teams with a .443 and are actually tops in home runs with a total of 128, which is all the more impressive once you account for the fact that Dolphin Stadium is quite the pitcher’s park. Their middle infielders, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla, are probably the most offensively potent 2B-SS combo in the game so far this year (apologies to Philly). First baseman Mike Jacobs has a Dave Kingman-esque .249/.288/.513 line (I think I mean that as a compliment) third baseman Jorge Cantu has come back from the dead to hit 16 HRs to go along with 51 RBIs, and with Josh Willingham missing 2 whole months of action, center fielder Cody Ross has performed admirably to help fill in that gap in production.

And I’m still predicting that before the season is done, the Florida Marlins will find themselves in fourth place in the National League East. I can feel the hate coming from Miami already (do we have Marlins fans as readers?). Allow me to explain.

The Marlins have scored an average of 4.9 runs per game, which is quite good. But it simply isn’t good enough to mask the 5.2 runs they’ve been allowing. If you allow more runs than you score, you lose. That’s just how baseball works. Moreover, the NL East has been downright terrible in games decided by a run. Collectively, they are 55-81 in these situations. In fact, Florida is the only team above .500 in one-run games. So I expect Philadelphia, Atlanta, and New York to rectify this before the season’s done (although Atlanta’s been beating the odds on this one for quite some time now) which is bad news for Florida. The Phillies and Braves have been underplaying their Pythagorean scores while Florida is overplaying theirs.

In addition, I simply don’t think that Dan Uggla in particular will be able to continue hitting for so much power. In 2006 and 2007, Uggla slugged .480 and .479 respectively. This season, he’s at .620, which is an incredible leap, made all the more peculiar by the fact that his line drive rate has been decreasing over this time and he’s not hitting more fly balls either. How you could possibly increase your slugging percentage so dramatically while essentially hitting more ground balls is simply beyond me. His BABiP is an unsustainable .341, and the fact that 23.2% of the flyballs he’s hit has cleared the outfield wall is also too high to be believable for a guy like Uggla, who should be around 13%. To a lesser extent, the same could be said of Mike Jacobs as well. Could it be that these guys are just improving as they enter their primes? Absolutely and I’m not ruling that out by any means. But doubting such severe increases in production like Uggla’s has served me well in the past. He’s good. Just not this good.

However, this is still a team that has Hanley Ramirez, who I think will be the consensus “Best Player in Baseball” within 2-3 years. You can’t ask for a better building block than this guy. And I’m also a fan of Andrew Miller, who might never be an ace, but should be one of the catalysts if/when the Marlins become championship contenders once again. But it’s not going to be this year.

So I hope that the Marlins realize this and not become buyers in July. In fact, by selling some of their pieces (like the resurgent Jorge Cantu at peak value), they’d probably be better off. With Ramirez, Uggla, Willingham, Miller, and the returning Josh Johnson, the Marlins still have some great talent. But I don’t think they’re ready to stay with the Phillies, Braves and Mets just yet.

- What They Need Index -