Maybe I’m the wrong person to be writing about any team in the AL Central. Going into the season, I was pretty darned sure that the Cleveland Indians would win the division quite handily, and that the Minnesota Twins were a fourth place team. And I totally bashed the Chicago White Sox and Kenny Williams, calling them a third-place team at best. Oh how embarrassingly wrong I was. How incredibly, utterly, hopelessly, know-nothingly wrong I was.

But so far, I think I’ve been fairly accurate in my assessment of the Detroit Tigers (Hazzah!). To me, they were a second place team that was going to miss out on the playoffs. Good, but not good enough. I wasn’t sold on Miguel Cabrera this year. His transition to a new, tougher league wouldn’t be helped by Comerica Park. I felt that both Gary Sheffield and Pudge Rodriguez’ age would eventually catch up with them. Although Pudge has slightly exceeded my expectations, Sheff’s been hurt and hasn’t produced while he was on the field. And I like Magglio Ordonez, but there was simply no way in hell that he was going to duplicate his 2007 season at the plate. Nate Robertson never was a very good pitcher to begin with, Kenny Rogers was 43 years old, and Dontrelle Willis is no one’s answer. Consequently, what we have at the All-Star break is a .500 team that’s 7 games out of first and 8 games out of the Wild Card spot.

So while I do think that the Detroit Tigers will be better than they had been before the All-Star break, I also wouldn’t be very surprised if they never get within 3 or 4 games of the Chicago White Sox for the rest of the season for two reasons – pitching and defense. Justin Verlander’s Ks are down and his walks are up. Same with Jeremy Bonderman but even more so. And although Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria had been fine defensive options in the past, their Revised Zone Rating indicates that they might be slipping. Combine that with Miguel Cabrera at first and Carlos Guillen (who still hasn’t gotten this third base thing down), you have yourself a pretty weak defensive infield. With the pitchers not striking nearly enough guys out (averaging an MLB worst 5.3 Ks per game), your defense needs to be much better because a lot of batted balls are coming their way.

How to go about accomplishing this? Frankly, I have no idea. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many answers down on the farm. Their top prospect, pitcher Rick Porcello, is a top-ten talent. But he’s also still a teenager and in High-A. And the rest? Not too helpful, especially since they traded away Cameron Maybin to Florida in the Cabrera deal and also sent Jair Jurrjens packing to Atlanta to acquire Renteria (yeah, that one’s worked out quite well, hasn’t it?). So what they’re essentially left with is a decent crop of talent who are all in the lower classes of the minor leagues. I suppose neither Polanco nor Renteria are untradeable, but who would take these guys and give back a better player at the same position?

And here’s also a big problem – this is a team that cannot afford to look into the future right now. Aside from Curtis Granderson and Cabrera, the lineup has no young talent. The Tigers have a very small window to win with veterans the likes of Ordonez, Guillen, Pudge and Sheff.

So basically, here’s what Detroit can do: Hope for the best. Hope that the rotation will be better. Hope that Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney stay healthy and effective. And pray to god that Todd Jones can continue to prove all statistical metrics wrong by successfully closing out games despite allowing way too many runs (the man has successfully converted 86.8% of save opportunities since 2006 – all while sporting a 4.29 ERA. How do you do this???). Although I personally may not think that they can secure a playoff berth, this doesn’t mean that they should go and blow the whole thing up (which may not even be possible at this point). Because as we’ve seen, I’ve been very, very, very, very wrong before. And it’s not like the Tigers have many other options.

- What They Need Index -

David Ortiz (.070, 1 HR, 3 RBI) “I’m just trying to figure things out for a minute so I can go back to being Big Papi again. You see this in baseball, where a guy will have a hard time, go home, chill out and come back with a fresh mind. It happens to everybody. I always do what Terry tells me to do. I’m an employee.”

Jason Giambi (.107, 2 HR, 4 RBI) “If I’ve been frustrated by anything, it’s that I feel so good and I’m hitting the ball hard and I had nothing to show for it.”

C.C. Sabathia (0-2, 11.57 ERA) “Of course people are going to say that — what else could be the reason?” he said. “It can’t just be that I’m pitching bad. It’s got to be something bigger; why not that? I don’t really care how it looks or seems. I can’t control what people think. I’m just trying to get it right and win baseball games.” — on whether his struggles are caused by contract-year pressure.

Jose Reyes (.225, 0 HR, 6 RBI) “I’m gonna get there. I want to finish my career here.”

Prince Fielder (.222 AVG, 0 HR, 6 RBI) “This game is all mental, anyway. It’s never physical” (so don’t even think about blaming this on my weight or my new vegetarian diet, asshole).

Miguel Cabrera (.175 AVG, 1 HR, 2 RBI) “It’s bad. I’m playing bad. … I feel bad. I feel like everybody’s behind me, laughing.”

Kenny Rogers (0-3, 6.75 ERA) “I’m supposed to be consistent and I was very uncomfortable out there and inconsistent.”

Andruw “The Tubbo” Jones (.100 AVG, 0 HR, 1 RBI) “Do I have to be sad all the time? My mom is still living, my dad is still living, and my mom thinks I’m fine and that’s what matters.”

This is the latest in a series of posts in which UmpBump breaks down the cagey offseason moves and woeful offseason blunders for all 30 major-league teams

The Marlins only really made one move this offseason, but it was a huge one, shipping Dontrelle Willis AND Miguel Cabrera in the same deal to the Detroit Tigers for prospects Cameron Maybin, Andrew Miller, Burke Badenhop, Eulogio De La Cruz, and Dallas Trahern, and Mike Rabelo.

The deal has been talked about for months as one of the best trades made in years, but of course everyone means from the Tigers’ perspective. From the Marlins’ perspective, this is an abominable trade, so bad you almost feel like Marlins fans should be able to sue the team for some sort of breach of fiduciary duties.

First of all, there is the overwhelming feeling you get that the Marlins would almost certainly have gotten far more in return if they had traded Willis and Cabrera in separate deals, most likely to two separate teams. Both were marquee names, both could have been expected to have a large market, and Miguel Cabrera is probably one of the 5 best players in the entire game right now. The only two words that could adequately describe the feeling around the baseball world when word came down that both players had been traded to a single team in the same deal was, “absolute shock”

Second of all, is the players the Marlins actually got in return. Centerfielder Cameron Maybin and lefty starting pitcher Andrew Miller were supposed to be the centerpieces of this deal, but both players are still extremely raw, and if the Marlins have any sense they will start them both at Double-A this year (note: it is unclear whether the Marlins have any sense). I mean, if these were dominant Triple-A players on the verge of major-league stardom, then that would be one thing, but there is a lot that players have left to learn if they are going to make the show from Double-A, so while Maybin and Miller have upside and projectability, they are as of yet nobody’s idea of “can’t miss.” Meanwhile, the other three pitchers are all C-grade prospects, and catcher Mike Rabelo is nobody’s idea of a prospect at all.

But thirdly, and this is where my own opinion comes in, above and beyond the general consensus that this was a bad deal by the Marlins, I can’t help thinking that what makes this deal so shameful and regrettable is that the Marlins actually had a pretty good shot to contend this year, with just a few moves.

What’s that, I hear you saying. Did he just say that the Marlins could have contended this season?

Well, yeah, actually. I’m sure the Marlins front office probably looked at their 71 wins last year and decided this team had no hope, and that they might as well shave an extra few million bucks off their payroll by dumping Willis and Cabrera. But I submit to you that if they had kept Willis and Cabrera, who are still relatively cheap, the Marlins would really only have been a few players away from being a serious menace in the NL East.

For one thing, the Marlins have a lineup stacked with young players making the major league minimum who are all still on the upswing side of their young careers. Second, the Marlins could have easily improved their defense dramatically, with a few moves. Last year, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, and Miguel Cabrera were woeful defensively at their respective positions. But if you simply moved Cabrera to first, Uggla to third, Ramirez to second, and found even an average defensive shortstop, you would suddenly have a vastly improved infield defense.

Thirdly, the only real hole in the Marlins’ lineup last season was in centerfield, which was exactly the position with the most free agents to choose from this offseason. The Marlins may not have been too inclined to jump into the Torii Hunter or Aaron Rowand sweepstakes, but with only a $30 million payroll last year, they easily could have afforded to go after Mike Cameron. And an even better idea would have been to make a trade for Boston’s Coco Crisp.

With a powerful young lineup headlined by Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham, and Jeremy Hermida, the Marlins would have put up a ton of runs, and a promising young rotation led by Willis (who was bound to improve on a down year) would have benefited greatly from an improved defense. Meanwhile, the Marlins bullpen is actually a secret source of strength: now that last years disasters Armando Benitez and Jorge Julio have been shown the way to the exit, the pen can be fully turned over to respectable closer Kevin Gregg (3.54, 32 SV), and extremely promising young arms Lee Gardiner (1.94 ERA last year), Henry Owens (1.96), Matt Lindstrom (3.04), Justin Miller (3.65), Renyel Pinto (3.68), and closer-in-training Taylor Tankersley (3.99).

So by my count, all the Marlins would have needed to do this offseason to field a very competitive team this offseason would have been to acquire a centerfielder, a cheap defensive-oriented shortstop (such as Cesar Izturis or Adam Everett), and a reliable 5th starter who could eat innings while Rick Vanden Hurk develops a bit more polish and Anibel Sanchez heals from surgery (Livan Hernandez?). Also, they should have resigned starting catcher Miguel Olivo, who doesn’t walk enough, but is strong defensively and has some good power, and would have only cost a few million at most (he wound up signing a one-year deal with the Royals). That is literally all they would have needed, as the lineup, rotation and bulpen would have been totally set everywhere else, and set with young players who are actually good, and pretty much all have upside left.

Of course, enacting this plan would have required that the Marlins actually care about winning anymore, rather than just whining about having no stadium deal. But clearly, winning is not a priority.

Offseason Grade: F

Additions: Luis Gonzalez, Mark Hendrickson, Dallas McPherson, Mike Rabelo, Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin

Losses: Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Miguel Olivo, Armando Benitez, Aaron Boone, Byung-Hyun Kim, Joe Borchard, Wes Obermueller

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

SS Hanley Ramirez – .332/.386/.562, 51 SB

2B Dan Uggla – .245/.326/.479, 31 HR

RF Jeremy Hermida – .296/.369/.501, 18 HR

LF Josh Willingham – .265/.364/.463, 21 HR

1B Mike Jacobs – .265/.317/.458, 17 HR

3B Dallas McPherson – .261/.298/.478

CF Alfredo Amezaga – .263/.324/.358

C Mike Rabelo – .256/.300/.357

LHP Scott Olson – 10-14, 5.81

RHP Sergio Mitre – 5-8, 4.65

RHP Ricky Nolasco – 1-2, 5.48

LHP Andrew Miller – 5-5, 5.63

LHP Mark Hendrickson – 4-8, 5.21

CL Kevin Gregg – 3.54, 32 SV

– Hot Offseason Action Index -

- Nope, not Perlozzo’s fault. The Orioles would be far better off if more of their players were like Nick Markakis.

- The A’s are torn about the ensuing return of Mike Piazza from the DL (as a DH); so much so that they’ve decided to make him their back-up catcher even though his right shoulder sprain renders him useless in that position. Scott Ostler at the SF Gate has the story – and the best line: “…but Mike Piazza is Mike Piazza, and Jack Cust isn’t.“

- Sure Terrence, Bonds’ controversial career would’ve been smooth sailing had he been a Brave. Just ask John Rocker.

- Carlos Lee. Prince Fielder. Doesn’t the Marlin’s press corp realize that a hefty slugger is the way to go? Get off Miguel Cabrera’s back; he’s heavy enough as it is.

- This is the epitome of Interleague play: Griffey returns to Seattle.

- Now, all is not well in Interleague land. They’re charging $75 bucks a seat to the fine folks in Denver for the privilege of watching that “fine-looking ballplayer” Derek Jeter. “But the biggest rip-off of consumers in Denver? The Rockies win, the Rockies win!“