What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

…

Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

The Houston Astros are in shambles.

After a hot start, they completely tanked in May and June and are now in a closely-fought battle with the Reds for last place in the 6-team NL Central.

So big changes need to be made.  And they need to start in the front office.

Owner Drayton McLane can’t very well fire himself, but he needs to fire somebody.  With all the indications that manager Cecil Cooper and pitching coach Dewey Robinson have contributed to creating a toxic clubhouse atmosphere, he can start with them, but most of the blame for this putrid team must be laid at the feet of GM Ed Wade.

To be as fair as possible to Wade, he was apparently under strict orders from McLane to field a contender. But what Wade did was take a team in no position to seriously contend, and completely torpedo any vague chance it might have had with a series of atrocious moves.

It’s not like I foresaw this suckage or anything, months ahead of time. Oh wait, I did.

A quick glance at the performance of the guys Wade brought in, compared to the performance of the guys he shipped out, reveals the magnitude of the tranwreck, as all of his major acquisitions have tanked.  Leadoff man Michael Bourn has a .288 on-base percentage and a .600 OPS. Second baseman Kazuo Matsui has an only slightly less abominable .678 OPS. Imported closer Jose Valverde has posted a 4.24 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP. Shawn Chacon added injury to insult by physically assaulting Wade and getting released. And marquee big-name acquisition Miguel Tejada’s .779 OPS is actually 86 points lower than that the main player he was acquired for, Luke Scott.

Meanwhile, Scott has become one of the best hitters on the Orioles, fellow Tejada trade pieces Matt Albers and Dennis Sarfate have been amazing out of the Baltimore bullpen, Chad Qualls leads all Diamondbacks hurlers in relief innings, and Brad Lidge has utterly dominated as the Phillies closer.  Throw in Trever Miller’s decent performance out of the Rays’ pen, and Wade gave away or let go almost an entire major league bullpen which is much better than the one he currently has.

The Astros have no business trying to field a contender this year.  They should be tearing everything down and rebuilding from the ground up.  And that needs to begin with the front office and the coaching staff.  But mostly Ed Wade. Because even if they think they should be trying to contend, Wade is clearly not the man to try that with.

- What They Need Index -

By now, you’ve no doubt read the story: ESPN found out that Miguel Tejada wasn’t really 31; when they asked him how old he was, he said 32; he’s actually 33.

I read this story and I thought, “Miguel Tejada’s only 33?!” For some reason I thought he was 35.

Anyway, the Houston Chronicle’s Richard Justice says this is no biggy for Miggy:

Don’t condemn Miguel Tejada unless you’re absolutely sure what you would have done in the same situation. Don’t jump on your high horse unless you’ve walked a mile in Miguel Tejada’s shoes. He was a poor kid that saw baseball as a way to provide for his family.

If he’s 17, he’s one kind of prospect. If he’s 19, he’s another kind. So he told scouts he was 17 when he actually was 19. Instead of celebrating his 32nd birthday next month, he’ll be 34. This isn’t a big deal. As Ed Wade said, the important thing is he’s playing like he’s 25.

I hope I’m not about to mount my high horse here. (As Babes Love Baseball put it, “I am not one to condemn people for lying about the year they were born. I was under the age of 21 at one time and was very thirsty.”) But I do think this is a big deal. First, Tejada’s already under a cloud because of the steroid rumors that have been swirling around him for years. Now that we know he lied about his age, anyone who believed his steroid denials will rightfully wonder if he’s lying about that, too.

But the bigger deal, of course, is that Tejada’s actual age calls into question what the Astros can expect to get out of him, considering that the peak age for the average baseball player is generally considered 27, and considering that a precipitous drop-off in production can usually be expected to strike in a player’s mid-30s. (Beyond the Box Score has a graph—of course!—demonstrating the pattern.) And the discrepancy also calls into question last winter’s trade between ‘Stros and the O’s. Yet Houston GM Ed Wade doesn’t seem to care. MLB Trade Rumors:

I’m surprised – those two years have to be a big consideration when projecting him for his ‘08 and ‘09 seasons, which the ‘Stros pretty much own. I guess the Astros can’t have a legitimate beef with the Orioles, if the O’s didn’t know either.

Tejada, by the way, can opt out of his contract after this season. He’s due $13MM in ‘09.

Unless he has a great season this year, I’d expect him not to opt-out. 34-year olds don’t get the money or the contracts that 32-year olds do. Which is, of course, part of why he lied in the first place.

But don’t worry, Miguel. You’re still younger than I thought you were.

PS—Obligatory Julio Franco age joke at Larry Brown Sports.

PPS—Pedro Martinez says he’s 36. His son, Pedro E. Martinez, is a Mets prospect and will turn 21 this June. Of course, it’s not impossible that he became a father at 15, but…

Miguel Tejada has a lot on his mind these days. This offseason saw him get traded to a new team, get named in the Mitchell report, and become the target of an investigation for possibly having lied in sworn statements to Congress in 2005, which could be punishable by 5 years in prison. On top of all that, Tejada has also had to deal with the death in January of his beloved older brother Freddy Tejada in a motorcycle accident.

But if there is anything that will help Tejada make it through this most difficult of winters, it is the fact that he has an extremely hot wife to come home to.

Alejandra Tejada, Miguel’s wife of 13 years, has not only been mother to their two children, but this past year just launched a career as as a spanish-language pop star. Alejandra scored a success with her debut album “¡Ama!”, which was released last fall, and has just announced plans for a second album, to be released later this year.

More pictures after the jump… Read the rest of this entry »

This is one of a series of posts in which belittle each team for their befuddling offseason blunders, and possibly praise them for any prescient pre-season pickups.

The Astros were in deep trouble even before the offseason started. Even before Ed Wade started his wheelings and dealings to drive this once-proud franchise even further into the ground.

I know these posts are supposed to focus on what happened during this current offseason, but I think it would be difficult to understand exactly how fast and how breathtakingly far this organization has fallen without a bit of a recap on the past year.

It is almost hard to remember that just two years ago, the Astros were representing the National League in the World Series, and coming off nearly a decade as perennial contenders in the NL Central, including six playoff appearances in nine years.

But that all changed a year ago when the Astros had just about one of the worst offseasons imaginable. Things began when the Astros lost 2/3 of their rotation by making no effort to re-sign Andy Pettite, and consequently, lost Roger Clemens as well. The Astros attempted to fill this gaping hole with Woody Williams, but grossly overpaid for a 41-year-old pitcher whose numbers had been greatly enhanced by pitching in the best pitcher’s park in baseball for all those years in San Diego.

The Astros also tried to make a splash by signing Carlos Lee, but even at the time, many questioned giving a 6-year contract to one of the worst defensive outfielders in all of baseball who was already in his 30s and already seemed to be having signficant problems with his weight.

But the biggest blow of all was when the Astros inexplicably and bafflingly traded fan favorite centerfielder Willy Taveras as well as their two best pitching prospects, Jason Hirsh and Taylor Buchholz, to the Rockies for pitcher Jason Jennings, who had just one year remaining on his contract.

Not surprisingly, most of us here at UmpBump predicted disaster for the 2007 Astros, and our predictions were borne out in almost every way possible. While Pettite pitched well for the Yankees, and Taveras helped the Rockies reach the World Series, putative no. 2 starter Woody Williams fell off a cliff to an 8-15 record and a 5.27 ERA, Lee gained 30 pounds, won the NL GIDP title, cost the team 16 runs with his defense, and broke shortstop Adam Everett’s leg, and Jennings, who had come at such a high price, never looked right all year, posting an execrable 2-9 record with a 6.45 ERA. Overall, the team stumbled to a 73-89 mark, its worst record in eight years, and both manager Phil Garner and GM Tim Purpura lost their jobs.

Thus the Astros headed into the 2008 offseason in desperate need of a creative reboot. Despite the fact that they were locked into the bad contract with Lee and had a barren farm system, there was some reason for hope that the team might head in a new direction and launch a long awaited youth movement, now that the Craig Biggio farewell tour was over, Biggio was safely retired at least two seasons later than he should have, and the battle cries of “we have to try one more time to win a World Series for poor Craig Biggio” could be laid to rest.

Unfortunately, the man the Astros hired to replace Purpura, former Phillies GM Ed Wade, was simply not the right man to take the Astros in a creative new direction.

To be as fair as is possible to Wade, he was handed a pretty bad hand, given orders from owner Drayton McClain to put a contender on the field rather than rebuild, and handed one of the worst collections of talent in baseball. If we give points for trying hard, we have to admit that Wade has certainly been very active this winter, and has tried his very best within the limits of his understanding to improve the team.

It’s just that pretty much every decision he has made has been questionable. At the very least, it would have been wise for Wade to try his best to hang on to whatever prospects he had left, but instead he completely traded away every last near-major-league-ready prospect or marginal prospect the Astros had left in order to land Miguel Tejada and closer Jose Valverde, completely emptying the cupboard and taking what had been one of the five worst minor-league systems in baseball and turning it into the absolute worst.

Wade compounded mistakes by deciding to keep Tejada at shortstop. This made no sense, since Tejada’s defense is no longer even adequate at shortstop, and the Astros already had one of the best defensive shortstops in baseball firmly under control in Adam Everett. It would have been a perfect chance to shift Tejada to third, where the Astros had a gaping hole in the form of Ty Wigginton, a player who can nominally play any position on the diamond, but only because he is equally terrible at all of them. But instead, Wade decided to keep Tejada at short, and keep Wigginton – a player even the Devil Rays didn’t want. He then actually non-tendered Everett – one of the top two or three defensive shortstops in all of baseball – losing a valuable player that was still under the team’s control and getting nothing in return, while insuring that any gain to the offense from what pop remains in Tejada’s unjuiced bat will be negated by the absolutely abominable left-side defense.

Mistakes continued in other areas as well. While Valverde is a useful player, his acquisition necessitated the trading away of the Astros’ last remaining major-league ready pitching prospect. And the whole reason Wade had needed to get Valverde in the first place was that he had traded away incumbent closer Brad Lidge to the Phillies to get one of his old favorites from his days in Philadelphia, centerfielder Michael Bourn. Although Bourn is an exciting speedster and a well-liked teammate, he is projected by most systems to be a fourth outfielder type at best so one has to wonder if will help the Astros much at all.

Finally, there is the awful signing of Kazuo Matsui to a 3-year, $16.5 million deal. I almost can’t express in words what a terrible idea this was. It reeks of big-name-itis, a desire to get someone, anyone, who might have been affiliated with the Rockies’ magic mojo of last season, and a complete lack of understanding about how ballparks might affect hitting numbers. Given that he was playing half his games in Coors Field last season, Matsui’s batting numbers are truly frightening, and we can expect a severe drop off as he returns to sea level. One wonders if Matsui’s numbers next season would be better than even another season of Craig Biggio, as bad as Biggio was in recent years.

So where do all Ed Wade’s moves this leave the Astros in 2008? In the NL Central cellar, alongside the Pirates, and with a very dim future.

The Astros offense should be okay, but with the loss of Lidge, Chad Qualls, and Dan Wheeler they have not much bullpen after Valverde, they have one of the worst infield defenses in the major leagues, and they have perhaps the worst rotation in all of baseball, despite the presence of ace Roy Oswalt (I mean seriously, Wandy Rodriguez is the number two starter?!?!). You are also talking about a team with the worst farm system in all of baseball, a meddling owner who interferes with his GM, a hide-bound GM stuck in old ways of thinking, and no hope of doing anything at all at any time in the anywhere near future.

In other words, in just two short years the Astros have gone from World Series runners-up to the worst organization in all of baseball.

Offseason Grade: D

Additions: SS Miguel Tejada, CL Jose Valverde, 2B Kazuo Matsui, CF Michael Bourn, CF Darin Erstad, OF Jose Cruz Jr., RHP Shawn Chacon, UT Geoff Blum, RHP Oscar Villareal, RHP Doug Brocail, RHP Geoff Geary, RHP Chad Paronto, OF Reggie Abercrombie

Losses: 2B Craig Biggio, RHP Brad Lidge, SS Adam Everett, RHP Chad Qualls, 3B Mike Lamb, OF Luke Scott, 2B Chris Burke, UT Eric Bruntlett, LHP Trever Miller, RHP Matt Albers,

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

CF Michael Bourn – .277/.348/.378, 18 SB

2B Kaz Matsui – .288/.342/.405, 32 SB

SS Miguel Tejada – .296/.357/.442, 18 HR

1B Lance Berkman – .278/.386/.510, 34 HR

LF Carlos Lee – .303/.354/.528, 32 HR

RF Hunter Pence – .322/.360/.539, 17 HR

3B Ty Wigginton – .278/.333/.459, 22 HR

C J.R. Towles – .375/.432/.575, 14 ML games

RHP Roy Oswalt – 14-7, 3.18

LHP Wandy Rodriguez – 9-13, 4.58

RHP Brandon Backe – 3-1, 3.77

RHP Woody Williams – 8-15, 5.27

RHP Chris Sampson – 7-8, 4.59

CL Jose Valverde – 47 SV, 2.66

-Hot Offseason Action Index-

Every December and every July for the past few seasons, Miguel Tejada has been a standby of the trade rumor mill. No longer. The Orioles, looking to start afresh, are shopping all their big-name players this winter and today, they traded Tejada to the Astros for five younguns: Luke Scott, Matt Albers, Troy Patton, Dennis Sarfate, and Mike Constanzo. The reaction at UmpBump was swift and scathing:

Nick to UmpBump Staff – 1:52 pm

Re: Tejada to the Astros

Is there anything more fun than watching Ed Wade run the Astros into the ground?

Paul to UmpBump Staff – 2:01 pm

Re: re: Tejada to the Astros

Yes. Watching Ed Wade run the Phillies into the ground. I miss those days.

Other blogs concur. “That’s a fine haul for Baltimore,” notes MLB Trade Rumors. “The Astros pretty much cleaned out their farm system for two years of an average-hitting third baseman.” Bugs and Cranks takes a quick look at the kiddies’ numbers and concludes that “the Houston Five are a couple lefthanded bats with some pop – particularly Scott, who had 18 homers last year – and three pitchers with varying degrees of promise.” Over at the Fanhouse, the consensus is the same: “For a team that’s short on young players, the Astros dealt a lot of them for two years of Tejada. Everyone knew that the Orioles were desperate to move Tejada’s salary. To get so much in return for a player coming off a down year is a feather in the cap of Andy MacPhail.”

But in Baltimore, the reaction has been very different. On the Baltimore Sun’s blog, Bill Ordine laments:

The Orioles sent Miguel Tejada to Houston, and for all those who thought the four-time All Star shortstop would be tasty trade bait, well, think again.

There are five guys coming here — outfielder Luke Scott, pitchers Matt Albers, Troy Patton and Dennis Sarfate and third baseman Michael Costanzo.

If there’s a household name in there, it’s Luke Scott. And if it is a household name for you, you must live in Scott’s neighborhood.

The deal must have been a hard one for O’s fans who, just a few years ago, were being offered Manny Ramirez and Matt Clement for their four-time All-Star shortstop. And some of these players aren’t exactly hot young prospects with tons of upside—Scott is 29.

But—and now it starts to get interesting—some of those who think Baltimore’s haul for Tejada is suspiciously slim think the Orioles were desperate to unload a player who is sure to be named in the Mitchell report tomorrow. Tejada was linked to Rafael Palmeiro’s steroid probe two years ago, and the blogosphere is rife with conspiracies about Baltimore dumping him today before his name became as poisoned as Barry Bonds’, who is currently out of work and under indictment. FanNation notes that Pettitte also signed his contract today—and has also been mentioned as a possible Mitchell reportee. And for its part, the Associated Press tried to ask about the timing of the deal vis-a-vis the Mitchell investigation, and got stonewalled.

So what do you say UmpBumpers? Who got the better of this deal? The Astros, who get Miguel Tejada for a bunch of guys who aren’t that good anyway? Or the Orioles, who get a cadre of new young(ish) players, divest themselves of Tejada’s salary, and manage to pull it all off just before what little value he has retained takes a nosedive?

The Washington Post is reporting that the Baltimore Orioles may be interested in trading Miguel Tejada if the team doesn’t improve it’s standing in the AL East in the next few weeks (it won’t).

BALTIMORE, June 22 — Though it was reported in several Los Angeles area newspapers that the Angels could have an interest in Baltimore Orioles shortstop Miguel Tejada, the two teams have not had any talks recently, according to an Orioles source. That may change, however, if the Orioles continue to slide in the standings.

The source did not deny the team would listen to offers for the superstar shortstop if Baltimore plays poorly in the weeks leading up to the July 31 trade deadline.

If the Orioles put Tejada on the trading block, there likely would be no shortage of suitors. The Angels, who have been looking for a power bat, seem like a perfect fit since they have a surplus of young talent in their minor league system. The Tigers or White Sox could also be possibilities.

Tejada, who entered Thursday’s game hitting .321 with 16 home runs, is not expected to come cheap. . . .

The Angels have got to be the scariest last place team in baseball. Can you picture them in 2007 with Tejada and Vladimir Guerero knocking in runs, Chone Figgins setting the table, Colon and Jered Weaver leading the rotation and K-Rod closing out games? They’d have some big-time names and be a real threat to make a worst-to-first run.

On the other hand, if the White Sox or Tigers end up with Tejada, they’d be pretty good RIGHT NOW.