Updated

To label the New York Yankees 2008 season as a disappointment might be an understatement. This is the team that year after year has been a staple in the playoffs, and that in a not-too-distant past (though it fades ever so slowly from memory) were the very definition of a dynasty.

Reverting to their winning ways will not be an easy task; GM Brian Cashman has to deal with an aging staff, and has to plug holes in the outfield, first base, and rotation.

Cashman will have to shell out the cash. Har har... har...

On the surface, the most important need for the Yankees this offseason is to bolster their lineup. During the last four seasons, the Yankees either lead or were second in home runs in the American League, relegating to fourth place in 2008; and even though they were third in team OBP, they were seventh in both runs scored and RBI. In 2007, the Yankees led all three of those offensive categories.

Rumors have been flying around the possibility of signing Mark Teixeira, which would add a potent bat to the lineup and replace a departing Jason Giambi, but the the price tag for Tex will prove to be pricey (not that the Yankees couldn’t afford it). Worth noting is Hideki Matsui’s knees, both of which have now been surgically repaired, possibly limiting his defensive abilities in the outfield.

Will the Yanks sign Tex?

So yeah, offense is a big one, on the other hand, beefing the rotation also looms as a critical issue to be addressed if the Yanks are to return to the post season. Team officials have confirmed that they’ll pursue C.C. Sabathia, who’ll definitely command Johan Santana money (again, not that the Yankees couldn’t afford him), but other questions regarding their rotation circle around the future of veterans Andy Pettitte and Mike Mussina.

Pettitte has already filed for free-agency, and it’s unclear whether he’ll sign elsewhere, opt to retire, or stay in New York. Pettitte himself has told the press that he’d like to pitch in fancy new Yankee stadium, and he may get a one-year deal worth around $11 million. Mussina is mulling retirement (even though he was, by far, the Yanks best pitcher in ‘08, winning 20 games for the first time in his career), and Cashman said during the GM meetings that the 40-year-old is an option they’re considering.

According to Cashman, only Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain have guaranteed spots in the rotation, and considering pitching is one of the Yankee needs this offseason, it makes sense to bring back both pitchers – especially after disappointing seasons from Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy.

The Yankees are never a team to stay pat in regards to the hot stove, so don’t be surprised if a they land a couple of big fish via trade or free agency.

- What They Need Index -

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Update #2: You want your update? I got yer update righteer.

Update/note: This post was ready to go in the morning, and was scheduled for today, but in light of the news that the Yankees have acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox (oh Kenny Williams, how do you do it?) we’ll post an update soon.

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

Don’t look now, but after all the hyping of the Yankees trio of young arms, 39-year-old Mike Mussina has become the most consistent and reliable starting pitcher on the Bombers staff. After tonight’s victory over Toronto, Mussina is now 9-4 and on pace to win 21 games this season. He also has a very respectable 4.01 ERA.

Which got me wondering about last year, when we all had the perception that Mussina was getting hammered and that he was basically done for his career. While it’s true that Mussina had an unsightly 5.15 ERA last season – the highest of his career – when I went back and looked, most of his other peripherals were decent. His walk rate remained miniscule, and his home run rate of 0.83 HR/9 was actually the lowest over a full season out of his whole 18 year career.

Which of course immediately made me think of BABIP.

Sure enough, last year Mike Mussina was victimized by the highest BABIP of his entire career, at .340. And it wasn’t even particularly close. The next worst BABIP mark of his career was only .326, which he posted in 1996 and matched in 2005. This year, Mussina’s BABIP has predictably fallen back down to .304, which is very much in line with league averages and his career rate of .298, which explains much of the apparent difference between this year and last year.

So while it is certainly true that Mussina is old and his strikeout rate has been in gradual decline, it is safe to conclude that Mussina didn’t really fall off a cliff last year as we all thought. It was mostly BABIP. Especially since he wasn’t giving up bombs at all, we can conclude that balls were just falling in for singles here and there, in a case of bad luck.

“Who would they replace me with?”

That’s what an annoyed Mike Mussina asked a reporter on Friday in Detroit. Following a terrible outing against the Angels last Tuesday night, during which Moose allowed nine baserunners (seven hits) and seven runs over 1 2/3 innings, the notion that the veteran with 247 career wins could lose his spot in the Yankees rotation became credible.

Last night, it became probable.

Against the Tigers, Mussina allowed ten baserunners (nine hits) and six runs over 3 innings. And this morning, every major New York paper seems to expect a change.

Make no mistake, Mussina’s current 5.53 ERA and 1.49 WHIP is not unjustifiably inflated by his recent string of three straight bad outings. There has been a season-long question as to whether not Mussina can perform any longer. His 2007 ERA has never been south of 4.50 following any of his 23 starts. His strikeouts have plummeted to 5.53 over 9 innings which is very much a cause for concern for a pitcher like Mussina who has had at least 7.11 K/9 over the past 11 seasons. His batting average against has jumped from .241 in 2006 to .313, largely due to the fact that he’s allowing more line drives (also due to the fact that he was lucky on balls fielded in play in 2006), which is a sure sign that hitters have your number. His slugging percentage against (.481) is the worst in his entire career. Perhaps most troubling in his case that he’s not walking hitters any more than he usually does. This means that it’s probably not mechanics. More likely, he just can’t cut it anymore.

His fastball has dropped to 86 mph, and hitters no longer have to anticipate it coming to be able to turn on it. This gives them the opportunity to anticipate the off-speed pitch all the time without having to worry about not being able to catch up if the heater comes their way. Moose needs the fastball to be around 88-90 to be effective, and in a game when 0.05 seconds is the difference between crushing a pitch and being behind it, it makes all the difference in the world.

So now the Yankees are forced to answer that very question that Mussina had asked reporters on Friday. Who can they replace him with? The Yankees cannot mess with a young arm like Joba Chamberlain who was already transferred to the bullpen after a career of starting in the minors. Kei Igawa has not proven to be any better than Mussina on his worst days. Prospect Ian Kennedy has turned some heads this year in AAA but at 22 years of age, he’s been put on an innings limit for the year and he’s approaching that figure already. Steven White is the most suitable candidate if a switch does indeed happen. White is older than most prospects (26) and isn’t projected to be long for the Major Leagues. But he is unproven in the bigs, which in this case, may oddly be a positive. When Mussina and Igawa have “proven” to be unable to perform for the Yankees down the stretch, the unproven may be their best option.

Yesterday morning as I arrived at the bookstore where I work, I clapped my hands with glee—a coworker was unloading fresh bundles of the New York Daily News, and on the back, the paper was chastising Mr. Yankee, Derek Jeter, for his childish “feud” with Alex Rodriguez, after A-Rod said Monday that the “blood brothers” were now just co-workers.

How disappointed I was this morning to see that Jeter had already made the inevitable, “No, we’re fine” comment. I thought we weren’t scheduled for a backpedaling until next week, Derek. What gives? I was looking forward to more erudite analyses like the following, from New York Post scribe Joel Sherman:

These have not been questions about his relationship with Jessica Biel or Mariah Carey or whatever starlet of the moment Derek Jeter was romancing.

When it comes to that, Jeter is right. His off-the-field associations have nothing to do with on-the-field results. Thus, he has decided to make them off-limits and I totally respect him for that.

But this was not about Page Six. This was about E-6, error on Jeter for malfeasance as a leader.

Ooh! Snap! What else you got, Joel?

Rodriguez attempted to recast the bond between the two and, perhaps, the power dynamics Monday when he admitted that their association had dwindled from “blood brothers” to “a working relationship.” It was, perhaps, a liberating moment for Rodriguez, a chance to stop having to act as if something existed that does not any more.

Jeter’s opportunity to take the cathartic baton came and went yesterday with the Yankee captain defiantly sticking to his cover story…

Cathartic baton! Quelle poesie!

Every story on this subject from the parking lots of New Jersey to the banks of the Hudson has focused on three storylines: Jeter isn’t doing his job as Captain where A-Rod is concerned; Jeter bailed out Jason Giambi when the slugger was caught using steroids, telling fans to cheer for him, yet leaves A-Rod to be booed mercilessly; and that all of this is starting to corrode Derek’s sterling reputation.

Won’t anyone come to Jeter’s defense? Won’t Mariah Carey or Jessica Biel or any of his other beards broads come to his aid?

Ah, wait….riding up on a white horse is none other than…Don Zimmer! Calling the negative press “a disgrace,” The Gerbil said of Jeter, “What do you want him to do? Put his arm around him and kiss him?” Given the frat-boy-humor t-shirts out there, Zim could have, perhaps, chosen his words a little better.

The irony about all of this is that A-Rod made his initial comments ostensibly to put to rest the incessant questions—which have swirled ever since that 2001 Esquire article—about the nature of his relationship with his “frenemy.” I say “ostensibly” because either A-Rod really is the PR naif he sometimes seems to be, with as many foot-in-mouth gaffes as John Kerry, or he is crazy like a fox. I can’t tell anymore. He started the interview saying, “I think it’s important to cut the [redacted]…You don’t have to go to dinner with a guy four, five times a week to do what you do. It [the relationship] is actually much better than all of you guys [the reporters] expect. I just want the truth to be known.”

Funny thing is, when I hear someone blurt out the T-word, I instantly suspect them of chicanery. So when, a few moments later, A-Rod innocently added, “People start assuming things are worse than what they are, which they’re not. But they’re obviously not as great as they used to be, when we were like blood brothers.” Well that’s a little passive-aggressive, don’t you think, Mr. I Just Want The Truth To Be Known. “The reality is, there’s been a change in our relationship over the past 14 years and hopefully we can put it behind us.” I can just see the wheels turning in the Yankee press corps’ collective brain: “So there IS something to put behind them! Aha!” But if A-Rod was trying to start trouble, then the question becomes: why? WHY? You’d think it would be the very last thing the beleaguered third baseman would want.

In other Yankees’ camp gossip, Bernie Williams is still MIA. The outfielder, who spent all 22 professional seasons of his career with the team, does not want to go to Tampa as a non-roster invitee, the only position the Yankees were willing to offer him this spring. But, of course, Jeter finds a way to make this story, too, about himself:

[Williams] has not returned calls from Brian Cashman, Joe Torre, [Jorge] Posada or [Mariano] Rivera. He did return Jeter’s call two days ago.

“He called me back,” Jeter said. “I’m not going to talk about what we talked about. I can’t relate to what Bernie’s going through. He’s been here what, over 20 years? Even I haven’t been here that long.”

Oh, hyuk hyuk hyuk Derek. You kidder.

At this rate, it’s a good thing that Mike Mussina and Carl Pavano have already cleared the air. Spring Training isn’t even a week old and there’s already more drama in the Yankees’ clubhouse than you’d find naturally occuring in a high school bathroom.

So the Social Security set of Major League Baseball continues to rake it in.

On the heels of the Dodgers throwing $18.5 million for two years at old-for-his-age Nomar Garciaparra (a rickety 33), other teams continue to add past-their-prime stars to their rosters.

Greying Mike Mussina (38) re-upped with the Yankees for a slightly less than he was making before ($23 million for two years, as compared with $88.5 million over six).

The Mets have hired Moises Alou (40) for the year, paying him $8.5 million for his services at the plate and in left field. And in a formality, they declined their option on Tom Glavine (41), who is vacillating between staying in New York and going home to Atlanta. Earlier this year, they re-signed Orlando Hernandez (41) and Jose Valentin (37), and added Damion Easley (37) to their bench. Next to fellow benchwarmer Julio Franco, these veterans all look like mere pups. The first baseman (and 1990 All-Star Game MVP!) is 48.

The Reds signed lefty reliever Mike Stanton (39) to a $5 million, two-year deal with a $2.5 mill option for 2009. And, of course, the Tigers earlier gave up young pitching for 38-year old Gary Sheffield, while rumors continue to swirl around 42-year old Barry Bonds.

That makes the biggest deal to get finalized this offseason, Alfonso Soriano’s $136 million with the Cubs, also the youngest. The infielder-turned-outfielder is just a couple months shy of his 31st birthday and will be 39 when his deal with the Cubbies runs out. (Though, as Nick pointed out, he hits like he’s ten years younger, so maybe the Cubs were just confused. Or drunk.)