Okay, so at a time when most people are debating whether or not the Washington Nationals can even break .500 next season, this is going to sound more than a little crazy, but I think the Nats have an outside chance at contending next season.

I’m not saying it’s going to happen, but I am saying that it could.

Let’s look at the positives.  First of all, the Nationals definitely have a high-powered offense. By most measures they’ve had the fourth or fifth-best offense in the National league this season, right up there with hard-hitting teams like the Phillies, Brewers, and Dodgers.

Second of all, the Nationals finally have a real GM. Mike Rizzo has just recently had the “interim” label removed from his title, and deservedly so, as he has done just about everything right since taking over for the hilariously incompetent Jim Bowden. Rizzo also has a track record of success as the scouting director of the Diamondbacks during the period they developed many of their current stars, and has a proven eye for talent.

Third, the Nationals have actually been quite “unlucky” this season by several measures, not least of which is their run differential, which suggests that they should actually have about 10 more wins than they’ve actually recorded.

Fourthly, the areas where the Nats most need to improve – the bullpen and on defense, are the areas most easily improved from season to season. In this way, it is possible to make a comparison between the 2009 Nationals and the 2007 Devil Rays. Both were terrible teams with terrible defense and terrible bullpens that drastically underperformed against an already terrible run differential. As you will recall, that Tampa Bay team went to the World Series the following year.

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A week ago I sent an email to the Umpbump staff suggesting that the Nationals maybe, with a little luck and a bit of offseason spending, could be a .500 team in 2010.

Is it me, or are the Nats looking like they may not be all that terrible next season? Dunn’s moving to 1B, where his iron glove plays a lot better. Nyjer Morgan is providing above-average defense in CF. Willingham is looking like he’s finally ready to realize his potential. Dukes is back after a successful stint at triple-A. Zimmerman is having a breakout year. The other Zimmerman, the pitcher, looks like the real thing. And Stephen Strasburg, we’re told, should be able to join the rotation right away. So if the Nats were agressive and added two average SPs in the offseason, they could actually be pretty decent in 2010 (though I’ll admit their bullpen could use some work). A lot would have to go right, of course. But I think they’ve got a shot at .500.

Paul had his doubts, pointing out that the Nats’ infield defense was still bad (and could be worse with Dunn at 1B), and that they’d have trouble outbidding other teams for free agent pitchers.

But I still thought they’d have a shot at respectability, mostly because I love how Morgan’s addition has improved the team’s defense.

Today, I’m not as excited about the Nats. That’s because a lot has already gone wrong. Specifically, Jordan Zimmermann will miss the next 18 months following ligament replacement surgery.

This is a huge blow to the Nats’ hopes. Zimmermann is the best pitcher on a terrible staff. I was willing to bet that if Washington got Zimmermann some help in 2010 — signed Strasburg and a couple free agent starters — that the team could win a few games.

But now? The Nats might still be better in 2010. But I wouldn’t hold my breath for .500.

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

On Wednesday we asked readers to guess how many people would show up to watch Randy Johnson try to win number 300, despite the rain, the fact that the game was in Washington D.C., and that the Big Unit is kind of a jerk.

But the game got postponed.

On Thursday we tried again, and Johnson pitched a gem, and now the results are finally in.

How many people were there to watch Johnson win 300?

According to Baseball Reference, zero.

Now, clearly that’s not an accurate number. As Keith Law points out on his Twitter feed, there were at least a handful of fans in the seats.

It looks like the Nats let Randy Johnson bring a few close friends to the game … and didn’t let anyone else in the park

The Washington Post estimated the attendance at about 1,000.

We’ll continue to monitor this situation to see if we can get a more accurate attendance number. But for now, you all lose.

UPDATE: We’re going to go ahead and call this thing. Last night’s game was a single-admission doubleheader and the attendance was 16,787. The winner is Joe, who guessed 16,030. Congrats, Joe. You’re the lucky winner of a copy of Ron Darling’s book “The Complete Game.” Thanks for playing.

Yesterday, we asked readers to guess how many people would show up to watch Randy Johnson attempt to win his 300th game.

At stake was a copy of Ron Darling’s new book, “The Complete Game.”

But the game got rained out.

So here’s what we’re going to do. We’ve got four hours before Johnson tries for a second time to win his 300th game. If you already guessed yesterday and you don’t want to change your guess, that’s cool. The old guesses will still count. If you want to change your guess, leave a new one in the comments. If you didn’t guess before but you want to join the fun, now’s your chance. Again, just leave your answer in the comments section.

I’ll close the comments a few minutes before game time, so get your guesses in now. And remember, it’s “The Price is Right” rules. The person who is the closest without going over wins.

Quick, guess which team is leading the National League in OPS.  Unbelievably, it is the oft-ridiculed Washington Nationals, even though they have the worst record in baseball at 10-21.

The Nats’ outstanding team OPS of .809 is more than enough to edge out the now Manny-less Dodgers for first place.  They are third in homers with 42, behind only the Brewers (44) and the Rockies (43), both of whom play in bandboxes.  Their very healthy .361 OBP trails only the Mets and Dodgers, and their robust .448 slugging percentage trails only the Phillies.

Add it all up and you have the best hitting team in the League.  In fact 7 out of 8 members of the regular starting lineup have OPS’s of at least .821 or higher, and the one guy who doesn’t, second basemen Anderson Hernandez, only falls short for lack of power and still contributes with a sparkling .378 OBP.

Which all makes it really too bad that the Nationals can’t pitch their way out of a paper bag.  Their 5.54 team ERA is easily last in the league, and it’s not even that close (surprisingly, second worst are the 16-14 Phillies, at 5.31).

So basically the Nats are on pace to become Rangers East.  However, by all accounts they do not face the same structural constrains on good pitching in their new ballpark that the Rangers do at Arlington.  Which means the Nationals pitchers really do flat-out suck.

But it also means, especially with their offense, that if they can scrounge up some good pitchers somewhere, they really make some noise. It’s probably too late to turn things around this year, but Adam Dunn is on a two-year deal, so a dark-horse run next year behind Dunn and Stephen Strasburg is not out of the question.

You’ve probably heard by now that Elijah Dukes got fined and benched because he showed up late for work.

Dukes was five minutes late for stretching drills because he was signing autographs at a local little league.

Now that little league has volunteered to pay Dukes’ $500 fine.

Buster Olney thinks Major League Baseball should pay the $500.

Rob Neyer thinks Dukes doesn’t get it and never will.

I think this whole thing is fascinating.

The little league president has praised Dukes, saying, “I could see if he was out trying to do something small or private, but he just came into my community and gave us a shot in the arm” and “The point is, this guy gave back to our community, and now he’s in a hard spot. We need to help him.”

But let’s be honest. Dukes is no saint. He didn’t volunteer his time. He got paid $500. Now, that’s not a ton of money, especially for a guy who’s making $400K. But he wasn’t exactly doing a lot of heavy lifting, either. Dukes “signed autographs, watched the parade of teams and spoke to the players for about a minute.”

Wow. A whole minute.

What kind of a person charges a little league $500 for a few autographs and a photo op? The kind of person who fathered at least five children with four women between 2003 and 2006, I suppose. That’s probably a lot of child support to pay.

Moreover, what kind of little league says to itself, “Gee, it’d be really swell to get a Major League player to come sign autographs on opening day. Who should we get? How about Elijah Dukes?! He’s been arrested at least three times for battery, and once for assault, and he’s threatened to kill his wife and he knocked up a 17-year-old foster child, but aside from that he’d be great!” Maybe the other Nationals players were too expensive?

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: Thank god for the Nationals. Never a dull moment.

The 2009 Washington Nationals are not going to win the NL East.

Shocking, I know. But please let me finish.

The 2009 Washington Nationals are not going to win the NL East and are still treating their best talent like they have no idea what the hell to do with them.

It started on Opening Day when Manager Manny Acta chose to pencil in Austin Kearns as his starting right fielder over Elijah Dukes. At the time, Acta’s rationale had been thus – Kearns hit four HRs in Spring Training agaisnt the likes of Felipe Paulino, Kyle McClellan, Nate Robertson, and Leo Nunez. That’s it, really. Not because Kearns has more to offer for the future of the franchise (he doesn’t), not because Kearns will end up with better numbers than Dukes (he won’t), but because of four HRs he hit off of mediocre pitching in games that didn’t count.They favored Kearns who slugged .316 last year over Dukes, who was the team’s best hitter in 2008.

And then there comes the news today that the organization is sending another talented young OFer – Lastings Milledge – down to AAA. Why? Because he hasn’t raked in the first 7 games. Cue my confusion.

What exactly does Milledge have left to learn down in the minors that he can’t learn in the bigs? Why wouldn’t a team that’s going nowhere fast want to groom their best talent at the major league level against major league pitching?

Now I’d be naive if I didn’t mention two things – one, Milledge plays a notoriously shallow CF, a fact that hurt him twice on Opening Day when balls sailed over his head, one resulting in an inside-the-parker by Emilio (EMILIOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!) Bonifacio. It’s becoming clearer by the day that Milledge does not have the skillset to be a good CFer and should be moved to the corners. Two, well, Elijah Dukes hasn’t exactly led the most prudent life.

But I don’t see what these two things have anything to do with playing time in 2009. Lastings Milledge is not a good defensive CFer, but among the other candidates (Dukes, Kearns, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and, I suppose, Willie Harris), he is the most attractive option. And to the best of my knowledge, Dukes has stayed out of trouble since 2007.  Why stifle their development? I simply do not see how this helps the ballclub’s bottom line.

Maybe Milledge should’ve just shook hands with Jim Bowden last year or something…