Forgive me if the answer to this question is completely obvious to you and makes me appear to be obtuse and uninformed for even asking this…

But why do so many people hate the Mets? It doesn’t appear to be just rival teams’ fans who feel this way and I’m curious as to why this is. Some examples:

1. Following their victory over the Mets in the 2006 NLCS, the Cardinals celebrate in their locker room by chanting “Jose, Jose, Jose” - the same chant heard at Shea Stadium cheering on Jose Reyes.
2. In late September while the Mets, Phillies and Brewers were battling it out for playoff berths, there were reports coming out of the Braves locker room that the Atlanta players were openly mocking and cheering against the Mets.
3. Prior to what turned out to be the final series of the 2008 season for both the Mets and Marlins, Florida’s first baseman (and former Met) Mike Jacobs said regarding how the Marlins had effectively played spolier in 2007: “It was pretty amazing going from how loud that stadium could be to you could hear a pin drop after that game was over. I remember hearing some of the guys saying they saw fans who were crying.”
4. Following the final game at Shea that saw the Marlins – for the second year in a row – eliminate the Mets from playoff contention, the Marlins celebrated on the field, lingering on the diamond for a much longer period of time than usual, prompting Mets fans to yell “Get off the field” for at least two minutes before they finally did.
5. During game 2 of the NLDS, the Phillies’ Shane Victorino hit a grand slam. While rounding first, Victorino raised one finger in the air in celebration. Which is all well and good, except for the fact that back in July, Jose Reyes had done the same thing against the Phillies. And they were pissed. Phillies’ radio personality Larry Anderson went so far as to say “somebody oughta put one in his neck” on air. Prior to the start of Game 3, Victorino walked into the Phils clubhouse to find that his name above his locker had been changed to “J. Reyes” in commemoration of his celebration style the night before.
6. Phillies GM Pat Gillick admits – NL East teams hate the Mets. “If you want to know the best thing we had going for us this year,” said Gillick, “it was the fact that all the other teams in our division hated the Mets’ guts. It started with Atlanta and all the hostility they had with the Mets through the years. Then Fredi Gonzalez left Bobby Cox to manage the Marlins and he didn’t forget everything that went on between the Braves and Mets. Look what Florida did for us the past two years (beating the Mets two out of the three in each of the last series of the season to prevent them from making the postseason)! Washington doesn’t like them very much either, and all those teams seemed to really get up for the Mets.”
7. And last night, as the Phillies were celebrating their first championship since 1980, Phillies’ broadcaster Harry Kalas screamed “See ya, New York!“, which sounds to me like a really odd thing to say. I mean, the Mets weren’t playing and haven’t been for the past month. What exactly did he mean by this?

I suppose I can understand that Reyes’ dancing in the dugout can seem excessive. But I don’t find it offensive. It’s not like the guy does it in front of the opposing teams’ dugout. He never points at players on the opposite side, he never looks at the pitcher following a homerun, and he doesn’t have a slow trot around the bases.

And the rest of the Mets players are… well, kinda dull. The two Carloses (Delgado and Beltran) are consummate professionals, David Wright is the golden boy who wouldn’t dare tick anyone off, Johan Santana is all business, and John Maine has no discernible personality. So please explain this to me.

P.S. To all the Red Sox fans I may have angered by my post last year on why everyone hates Curt Schilling, now is your chance for revenge.

Right around this time last year, the New York Mets were in first place in the NL East. They were struggling, to be sure, but they were still in first with a “healthy lead”. And then MLB.com began selling this – a 2007 NY Mets NL East Championship T-Shirt. Now I don’t believe in jinxes or anything of the sort. But it did seem presumptuous at best.

But at least they were in first place.

MetsBlog.com has a link to a website belonging to Joe’s Sports, which is a sporting goods chain located in the Pacific Northwest. And they’re selling 2008 NL East Championship T-Shirts. For the Phillies.

Now I can’t blame the Phillies on this one. As far as I know, they’re not the ones promoting this. Joe’s doesn’t even have any stores east of Idaho. But as a Mets fan, it’s still kind of funny…

Let me start this post by saying that, at this juncture, with less than a month left in the regular season, I tend to throw all predictive stats out the window. With so little time left, very close divisional races such as the ones we still have in the AL Central, NL East, and NL West, could easily be decided on anomalous occurrences. Orlando Cabrera could far surpass career norms and OPS over 1.000 in September, leading the White Sox into the post season. Newly acquired Matt Stairs could start jacking home runs for the Phillies and allow them to overtake the Mets for the second year in a row. And both Brandon Webb and Danny Haren could completely implode over the final few weeks, and the Dodgers could be crowned division champs.

Are any of these specific events likely to occur? Probably not. But every year, instances akin to these do happen and factor heavily into the playoff picture. The unlikely is expected.

So this is not a post where I am going to predict how the NL East is going to play out in the month of September. Frankly, I think it’s a waste of time even trying to do so. But I do want to assess the current situation, and lay out the things we should be looking at over these final 22 games, especially since the Mets and Phils are locking horns for the last time this year in a three-game series starting tonight.

Can They Keep It Up?

METS: I shake my head a bit at the recent chatter regarding whether or not Carlos Delgado is an MVP candidate. For one, he doesn’t deserve it, and two, it’s unbelievable that I even have to argue against it considering where he was just a couple of months ago. As of the morning of June 26th, Delgado had a .229 BA, .306 OBP, and most surprising of all, a .396 SLG. That’s an OPS barely above .700 for a guy with a career OPS of .925. But during the game on the 26th against the Yankees, Delgado exploded for 2 home runs and a team record 9 RBIs. And since then, his line has been a very impressive .298/.391/.627. To me, it’s the difference in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s most encouraging. And surprising based on his performance during the first 3 months of the season.

PHILLIES: One area of the Phillies that I completely underestimated going into the season was their pitching. As a team, they’ve allowed  only 4.17 runs per game, which is top-three in the National League – and they’re doing it in a hitter’s park. But one guy who was not having much success for the better part of the season was Brett Myers. Through his first 17 starts, Myers was awful. He had an ERA of 5.84, had a worse K-rate (7.9/9) and a walk rate (3.9/9) than his career norms, and an incredibly high home run rate (2.12/9) as well. Then the Phillies did something a bit surprising – they optioned him to the minors in early July, and Myers agreed. And since his return to the bigs on July 23rd, Myers has been outstanding, especially in his past five starts. The Ks are back, the walks and homeruns have all but disappeared, and his ERA has reflected these positive changes (1.43 over 37 2/3 IP). I try to never put too much stock in so few innings, but that 37 2/3 IP are also about as many innings as the Phillies are going to get out of any starting pitcher from this point forth any way. So who says he can’t finish strong too? Myers takes the mound tonight against Mike Pelfrey in the series opener.

Can They Turn It Around?

METS: Pedro Martinez is a totally different pitcher these days, and the change hasn’t  been positive. When he arrived in Flushing back in 2005, he dominated. The following season, he walked a few more hitters and gave up more home runs. It was also during the 2006 campaign that the injuries began. First, it was a hip injury. Then it was his right calf. Then his left calf was torn. Finally, a torn rotator cuff. Season over. There was still some optimism in 2007 when Pedro returned. Despite a serious drop in velocity (couldn’t hit 90 mph any more), the strikeouts were still there, and the walks remained manageable. Yet, even though he had a 2.57 ERA in the five starts he made last year, his line drive % was telling a different story. Hitters were on him, evidenced by the .284 BAA. Predictably, Pedro missed significant time in 2008 as well. When he returned in June, his velocity was higher than last year (88-91mph), but the line drive % remained high – only this time, the strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he’s been giving up homeruns at a career high rate. As of this writing, his ERA is 5.07 and it’s no fluke. Can Pedro stay healthy and keep the ball down? Pedro is scheduled to get the ball on Saturday.

PHILLES: In 2007, the Phils averaged a whopping 5.51 runs scored per game. This year, they’re at 4.83, which is still good, but is also a noticeable drop. From here in New York, it seems that the media and fans are mostly attributing the decrease in production to Jimmy Rollins. But the bigger problem has been with Ryan Howard. His BA, OBP, and SLG have all decreased quite a bit for two consecutive seasons now. His sufficient HR (39) and RBI (119) numbers appear to be masking his .325 OBP. And although a .502 SLG is nothing to scoff at, it is a cause for concern when he had a .584 last year and .659 the season before that. Add it all together and his adjusted OPS is a 109 – which is a bit low for a first baseman, and especially so for a guy with Howard’s reputation. Unless he is hiding an injury, I don’t think that this is a decline just yet. He could very realistically go berserk in September.

Will They Get Noticed?

METS: I’m continually amazed at how little appreciation Carlos Beltran receives from Mets fans. Perhaps some false expectations were created by his career year in 2006 when he crushed 41 home runs in his second season in a Mets uniform. Or perhaps it’s because he’s been put into the clean-up spot 108 times this year and we’ve come to expect more power from that position in the batting order. Beltran may never hit 40 dingers again, but here’s what you can count on him for – one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game with good pop, a very strong ability to get on base and plus speed. As viewers, it’s easy to be impressed by diving catches and leaping grabs at the wall. They guys who are underappreciated are those who are so good they get to the ball fast enough so they don’t have to dive. Beltran’s one of those guys. And he’s also one of those guys who can appear to be able to win games all by himself. We haven’t seen that Beltran yet in 2008.

PHILLIES: When most people think of the Phillies lineup, the names that immediately come to mind are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell. But Jayson Werth is the guy who has impressed me most so far this year. This is a gentleman that walks, is slugging over .500, manages to steal bases without getting caught, and still somehow finds a way to give a stray badger shelter below his lower lip. Multi-tasking. Werth hasn’t been great against righties (.790 OPS) but absolutely kills lefties (1.051 OPS and 1 HR every 8.87 ABs). If he could get that OPS vs. righties up just a bit, he’d really be something pretty special.

I’ve got about an hour until game time, so I’ve gotta go on my way. Enjoy the series, UmpBumpers!

Atlanta Braves – Healthy Mike Hampton, Healthy Mike Gonzalez, RH hitter off the bench, Hope that Andruw Jones’ defensive value was highly overstated

With their recent acquisition of Mr. Jamie Kotsay to patrol centerfield, the Atlanta starting lineup appears to be set. We can quibble with the top of the order a bit, as we’re not quite sure how Yunel Escobar will perform in his first full year, but aside from that, it’s a more than solid crew. Chipper Jones had a very underrated 2007 campaign, Mark Teixeira gets his first fulls season in the National League, and LFer Matt Diaz turned some heads as well, especially against lefties. Despite the absence of Andruw Jones – let’s face it, Jones wasn’t that much of an offensive asset in 2007 anyhow – the Braves offense looks strong enough to duplicate their success from last year, when they scored 810 runs (3rd in NL). They could use another right-handed bat off the bench (no, Omar Infante doesn’t count), however, as Scott Thorman, Brandon Jones, and Josh Anderson all bat from the left side.

However, Mark Kotsay himself will never be able to replace Andruw Jones, especially with the glove. And it’s the all-important preventing of runs that may pose to be a problem for the Atlanta Braves in 2008. Their top-two starters, John Smoltz and Tim Hudson have the ability to match up with pretty much anyone aside from the Arizona duo. After them, however, it’s completely a crap shoot. By the end of 2007, Tom Glavine had nothing to rely on aside from his famous changeup, and even that was losing effectiveness since his fastball had dipped to the low 80s. I’m also not sold on Chuck James yet either, as his rather successful year was largely due to the defense behind him (his fielding independent ERA was 5.41). The ultimate wild card, however, is the status of Mike Hampton. The far-too-often-injured lefty had yet another set back in his continued recovery from elbow surgery after straining a hamstring on a rehab assignment down in Mexico in November. The Braves did, however, have the foresight to gain some solid pitching depth, as Jair Jurrjens remains a viable option.

The Atlanta bullpen has some questions as well. I think Rafael Soriano will do just fine in the closer role, but who will bridge the gap? Can Peter Moylan duplicate his surprisingly effective (1.80 ERA over 90IP) 2007 campaign? How effective will Mike Gonzalez be following Tommy John surgery and how soon can he return?

Moving forward, I’m interested in seeing how much of an impact Andruw Jones had on the Atlanta pitching staff. It’s been over a decade since the Braves had this to worry about, and although Kotsay has been a capable defender in the past, his recent back surgery and age (32) could affect the pitching quite a bit. Smoltz, Glavine, and James are all flyball pitchers (James is extremely so), and are the most likely to miss a top flight centerfielder they could rely on.

Florida Marlins – The Ability to Stop the Arbitration Clock, pitching, pitching, third baseman, pitching.

We knew going into the offseason that the Florida Marlins had to do something. Two of their most recognizable players, Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis, were approaching arbitration and were going to get mighty expensive. But they surprised everyone by trading both these guys away in the same deal.

But the clock now starts again for the Marlins and herein lies a potential problem. Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla, Jeremy Hermida, Mike Jacobs, Scott Olson, Cody Ross, and Josh Willingham have all completed their second year of MLB-service. Players can become arbitration eligible after three.

Problem.

Another interesting subplot to the current Marlins team is how far their pitching has fallen over the past year. Dontrelle Willis was supposed to be a superstar. Never happened – at least not in Florida. Josh Johnson was supposed to be his trusty sidekick. He’s out the entire year most likely, following Tommy John surgery. Scott Olsen was supposed to be the great accompaniment to Willis and Johnson who would also get into fights with Miguel Cabrera. Instead, Olsen was the guy with a 5.81 ERA who would also get into fights with Sergio Mitre. And Anibal Sanchez was Mr. Perfect Game. He spent most of the year in the minors. It really wasn’t that long ago that the young Marlins staff looked like the future of MLB. Remember, kids: TINSTAAPP (there is no such thing as a pitching prospect).

Another thing they need to get sorted is their third base situation. Alfredo Amezega, Jose Castillo, and Jorge Cantu look to battle it out for the starting gig in spring training. But I have to wonder – why not move Dan Uggla over to third?

It’s not all bleak, however. The Marlins did get two worthwhile prospects from Detroit in that Cabrera-Willis deal. Both Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller will get the chance to prove themselves at some point in 2008.

New York Mets - A Quick Start, Ace Pitcher, Let Youth Develop

Well, there wasn’t much that the New York Mets needed to do. After all, this is the same team that cruised into the postseason, maintaining the seven game lead they had in mid-September over the Philadelphia Phillies, and went on to dispatch all who were in their way en route to the franchise’s third World Series Championship ever.

But everyone else wants to tell me that none of that happened. Including my shrink. Fine. For the purposes of this post, I’ll pretend that the Mets failed to hang onto their huge lead over the last three weeks of the 2007 season. Are you happy? Seriously, the things I do for you people…

Since I have no soul, I don’t really believe that momentum exists in the context of a baseball season. With that said, I still think it’s important that the Mets get off to a strong start. If they falter early on, the NY media will be absolutely relentless. Of course, the only way they can really silence doubters would be if they could build a lead going into September (a big “if” at this point) and maintain it this time around. But a good April will spare me the team from having to read about “the collapse” to the point where I they have to swear off reading anything for all of eternity.

Additionally, sometime before Opening Day, the Mets, Yankees, Red Sox and Twins need to piss or get off the can when it comes to Johan Santana. Despite Pedro Martinez’s successful return towards the end of last season, the Mets still lack someone they can call their ace. Oliver Perez took a couple steps forward in 2007 but he’s still a box of chocolates. John Maine also showed improvement, but he must continue to limit walks and homeruns. Neither of them can yet be considered as more than mid-rotation arms with some room to grow. Pedro should no longer be considered an “ace pitcher” since we have no idea if he can sustain himself over 100+ innings, let alone 200. IF the Mets end up with Santana (another big “if”), this will allow the team to potentially put Orlando Hernandez in the bullpen, which in my mind would be ideal as it allows the Mets to not rely on Jorge Sosa to do much of anything.

Lastly, this isn’t necessarily something they need in 2008, but for the sake of 2009 and beyond, I’d like to see the Mets have a better organizational philosophy when it comes to managing their younger players. As a franchise, the Mets have historically rushed their prospects to the big leagues and 2007 was no exception. Carlos Gomez has the talent to be sure, but had no business playing on a team that needed to win every game possible to make the playoffs. Both Mike Pelfrey and Phil Humber were not considered “Major League ready” when they made their respective debuts either.

Of course, this is a total moot point if Johan Santana becomes a Met. Last I heard, the Twins were actually asking the Mets to include the entire cities of New Orleans, Binghamton, Savannah, Brooklyn, and St. Lucie in the deal (they didn’t want Kingsport).

Now I’ll go back into my world where I wear my Championship T-Shirt proudly.

Philadelphia Phillies - RH Bat, Starter not named Adam Eaton. Relief Pitching

And I’m back in reality. The 2007 NL East Champs should have no problems scoring runs in the coming season. They led the National League in runs scored (2nd in MLB) and the lineup remains largely intact. While there is no such thing as a sure thing, the big three of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and (ahem) MVP Jimmy Rollins come close. And Pat Burrell will continue to be denied his just praise by the Phillies fanbase. The only real change in the lineup comes in the form of Geoff Jenkins, who will most likely get the bulk of the time in RF, while Shane Victorino moves to Center to replace the departed Aaron Rowand. I was a bit surprised by the Jenkins deal, as I thought that the Phils were already loaded with hitters capable of hitting from the left side. Howard, Utley, Greg Dobbs, Rollins, Victorino, and now Jenkins are all either lefty or switch hitters, leaving only Carlos Ruiz and Pat Burrell hitting from the right side during most games. Jayson Werth should see some time in lieu of Jenkins against lefty pitching, but I do wonder if they should get an additional righty capable of swinging the bat (which incidentally leaves out Wes Helms).

I do have to admire the Phillies for obtaining Brad Lidge from Houston on the cheap. This has of course allowed the team to move Brett Myers back into the rotation, and he and Cole Hamels should be a formidable duo atop the rotation. However, much like Atlanta, the rest of the rotation needs work. UmpBump writer Coley has already expressed his slight-discomfort-inducing love for Kyle Kendrick, but I’m one of the naysayers. So far in his brief MLB career, he hasn’t induced nearly enough groundballs (1.55 GB/FB ratio) to make up for the fact that he strikes out far too few (3.8K/9IP. 3.8!!!) . His peripheral stats project him as someone who should have an ERA in the mid-to-high-fours. I do expect Jamie Moyer to be slightly better than he was in 2007, but this does assume that his magic anti-aging powder was not discontinued. Plus, Moyer had an ERA over 5 last year, so “slightly better” in this context doesn’t have much weight. But compared to Adam Eaton, I’ll take Kendrick and Moyer any day. Here’s a general rule of thumb: bringing an extreme flyball pitcher into an extreme homerun hitters’ park is generally a bad idea (only two more years and $16.135 million to go, Phils fans!). At this point, Chad Durbin would most likely be the safer option.

While I still have faith that Brad Lidge can be a fine closer, I do wonder about this team’s bullpen. Tom Gordon (can we stop calling him Flash now?) is no longer reliable, and they have no viable lefty option after J.C. Romero. Will someone step up?

Washington Nationals - Trade away Dmitri Young and/or Nick Johnson, Find trade partners for Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch, Pray for John Patterson’s health

The Nats were one of my favorite offseason stories to watch, since they finally appear to have a sense of direction. They acquired Lastings Milledge and 2007 Douchie Award winner Elijah Dukes in trades that could both potentially end up as steals for the Nationals. With Austin Keans and Wily Mo Pena, they actually will have a decent, young outfield in 2008. I fully expect Ryan Zimmerman to have a bounce-back year as well. A few more young prospects and the Nats may actually be in business. They must know that they have no shot in the immediate future, and I love that they’ve begun to create something that could bear fruit in a few years.

With that in mind, I’m surprised that no one is yet to offer something that convinced Jim Bowden to trade away both Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch. Those two are prime candidates to used as bait to acquire some B-level young pitching. I also do wonder what the team intends on doing once Nick Johnson returns. Neither he nor Dmitri Young are really capable of playing elsewhere, so I assume at least one of them will have to go.

I also think that one issue that is getting overlooked is the health status of John Patterson, who was clearly not right the past two seasons. But back in 2005, he looked to be “top-of-the-rotation” material, sporting a 3.13 ERA along with a 8.7K/9IP over 198 1/3 innings. It’s most likely asking far too much to think he can immediate return to those numbers following surgery on his pitching arm back in September, but a glimpse of that former self should give hope to the future of Nationals pitching.

I’m not sure who’s responsible for this. I don’t know if it was a Mets employee or someone from MLB. But if the Mets fail to hold onto their 2.5 game lead over Philadelphia, I think this becomes the proof that may actually convince me of the existence of a god, and that he/she/it has a sense of humor.

That’s right, Mets fans! You can purchase your 2007 Mets NL East Championship T-Shirt right now before it actually happens! Because here in NYC, if you’re not ahead of the fashion trend, then you’re treated like a piece of crap (as a caveat to this rule, if the Phillies overtake the Mets, then the “ironically historical” nature of this shirt will inevitably become chic among the hipsters of the Lower East Side – or the “LES” of Manhattan and Williamsburg - or ”Billysburg” – in Brooklyn. It’s just the way it is.).

Hat tip to MetsBlog for their post.

So it’s the day after the all-star game, and you know what that means. Every baseball columnist at every daily newspaper in the country is writing his or her “state of the team” column.

Let’s take a look at what they’re saying in the NL East, where the Mets lead the Braves by two games and the Phillies by 4.5.

Gannett News Service reporter Brian Heyman says fans think the Mets need to acquire some pitching before the trade deadline.

Stephen A. Smith says the Phillies, as they are currently assembled, have no chance.

AJC columnist Terrence Moore agrees with Stephen A., and says the Braves will win the East.

Philadelphia Daily News columnist Sam Donnellon says Phillies GM Pat Gillick hasn’t proven anything since he arrived 20 months ago.

That other Daily News columnist, Rich Hoffman, thinks the Phils should be sellers at the deadline, not buyers.

All I know for sure is that the Phillies won’t be sellers, unless they happen to lose their next 10 games in a row. The Mets won’t part with any of their young studs (Millege or Gomez) for a pitcher, unless that pitcher is Dontrelle Willis (and even then maybe not). And the Braves can kiss their post season hopes goodbye if Smoltz doesn’t return healthy.