Jayson Stark doesn’t think the Philies should sign Chone Figgins because Figgins is a leadoff hitter and the Phillies already have a leadoff hitter.

From ESPN.com:

“What happens if they try to install Figgins in the leadoff hole? That has the potential to create a gigantic problem because they’d have to sell it to their current leadoff man, some guy named Jimmy Rollins. And that won’t be easy. So to me Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa and Placido Polanco are much better fits for them, depending on the asking price.”

Rollins had a .296 OBP in 2009, which was the third lowest in the National League, behind only Clint Barmes and Bengie Molina. Because he still has some power and speed, Rollins isn’t a total loss offensively. But leadoff hitters are supposed to get on base and score runs, and because of Rollins’ inability to get on base he’s a terrible fit for the leadoff spot.

Granted, the Phils have been to two consecutive World Series with Rollins batting leadoff, but I think it’s safe to say that in 2009 the Phils succeeded despite Rollins offense (which Fangraphs says was worh -10 runs), not because of it. In fact, whether or not the Phillies sign Figgins, Rollins shouldn’t bat leadoff in 2010. Shane Victorino would be a much better candidate.

I’m of the belief that if your team is using a guy with a sub-.310 OBP in the leadoff spot, somebody should be fired. Probably the manager. Maybe the GM. Possibly both. But I must be in the minority because last season, of the 10 guys with the lowest OBPs in the NL, three of them (Rollins, Guzman and Soriano) batted leadoff most of the year, and one of them (Bonifacio) batted leadoff for nearly half the season.

You’ll hear a lot of Philly fans bitch about Charlie Manuel’s allegiance to closer Brad Lidge, but his willingness to stick with Rollins at the leadoff spot is an equally great crime.

I feel like we’re beating a dead horse. Nick said it. I said it. Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli said it. And now I’m saying it again: The Kansas City Royals need more OBP.

The 2008 Royals were twelfth out of 14 AL teams in OBP, and last in walks. But Dayton Moore kicked off the trade season by dealing for Marlins 1B Mike Jacobs, who had a .299 on-base percentage in 2008 and walked just 36 times.

Next, Moore picked up the option on catcher Miguel Olivo, who has a .275 career OBP.

Then he signed free agent infielder Willie Bloomquist, who had one extra base hit in 2008 and a .377 OBP. What’s that  you say? A .377 OBP isn’t half bad? Don’t be fooled. Bloomquist’s high OBP came in only 71 games and 165 at bats — not a very big sample size. His career OBP is a more pedestrian .322. In Bloomquist’s favor, he can play almost every position and would make a decent utility player, but it seems the Royals intend to use him as an everyday second baseman.

Moore’s best transaction was trading for Coco Crisp, whose stellar defense will be an asset, but whose .331 career OBP doesn’t help solve the Royals’ biggest problem.

What it all comes down to, as Jazayerli describes, is the Royals simply have too many low OBP guys to compete:

Baseball rewards balance, and punishes redundancy. One Jack Cust in your lineup is an asset, because he mashes the ball and you can hide him at DH – but if you’ve got four Jack Custs in your lineup, then you have no defense at three positions, and pretty soon you’re giving up runs faster than you can score them. Similarly, if you’ve got one low-OBP hitter in your lineup, he can bat ninth and compensate for his low OBP in other ways. But when you’ve got five low-OBP hitters in your lineup, then by definition some of them are going to have to lead off or bat in the middle of the order, and the liability of each additional low-OBP hitter has a multiplier effect.

Amen, Rany. Amen.

Added: Mike Jacobs, Coco Crisp, Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist.

Lost: Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez, Kip Wells.

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer:

CF Coco Crisp
SS Mike Aviles
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
LF David Dejesus
1B Mike Jacobs
2B Willie Bloomquist
C Miguel Olivo

SP Zack Greinke
SP Gil Meche
SP Brian Bannister
SP Luke Hochevar
SP Kyle Davies/ Jorge Ramirez

CL Joakim Soria

Conclusion: The Royals have a decent pitching staff, led by Meche, Greinke and Bannister. They’ve got a top flight closer and potential star hitters in Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. But until they address the team’s total and complete lack of OBP, they’re screwed.

Grade: F

-Hot Offseason Action index -

The 2008 Royals were twelth out of 14 AL teams in OBP. So what did the Royals do to address the problem? They kicked off the trade season by dealing for Marlins 1B Mike Jacobs, that’s what. Jacobs hit a career-high 32 homers this season in 141 games, although he batted just .247 with a .299 on-base percentage.

How bad is Jacobs at getting on base? He walked just 36 times last year, and his .299 on-base percentage was the seventh-lowest in baseball among players with 500 or more plate appearances.

Here’s what Rob Neyer, a Royals fan, had to say about Jacobs:

Mike Jacobs is not a good baseball player. He’s just not. Jacobs’ career OPS+ is 110. That number almost perfectly describes Jacobs’ current abilities, as he has been quite consistent. Here are his OPS+ numbers for the past three years: 106, 100, 109. Good for a hitter, but not for a hitter who plays first base.

Yes, he did hit 32 home runs last season. To be a good hitter with a .299 on-base percentage, you have to hit at least 40 homers. Maybe 50.

Jacobs’ acquisition should lead to more homers, which couldn’t hurt, since Kansas City was 13th in the AL in homers in 2008. But odds are he’ll be hitting a lot of solo shots, because Kansas City isn’t very good at getting on base, and adding Jacobs won’t change that.

Hey, don’t get me wrong. Jacobs represents an improvement over Ross Gload and his three home runs and 37 RBI. But if you’re only objective is to find somebody better than Gload, then you’ve set the bar pretty low.

If you get past Kansas City’s OBP troubles the team isn’t so bad. Not so good, either. But not awful. Kansas City gave up the fifth most runs in the AL last season and the team’s defense was middle of the pack.

The Royals would need a lot to go right in order to contend in 2009. A lot. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen and Butler would have to realize their potential and become the stars the Royals believe they can be. Gil Meche has to have a bounce-back year. Zack Greinke has to continue to pitch like an ace. Ditto Joakim Soria.

A free agent like Jason Giambi could help the Royals, but Giambi is limitted to DH/1B and the Royals have a glut of players that play that position, including Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, Gload and Kila Ka’aihue. Giambi would just add to that glut.

The Royals will no doubt look to trade some of their 1B/DH depth. Butler has the most trade value, but the Royals would be selling low on a guy who only a year ago was considered one of the league’s brightest hitting talents. Ka’aihue has career numbers of .262/.382/.448 in seven minor league seasons, but he could start the year back in triple-A.

What’s troubling about the Jacobs acquisition is that it suggests that the organization isn’t serious about improving the team’s OBP. And it needs to be serious about OBP, but the Royals’ OBP is a serious problem.

- What They Need Index -