Thoughts and links: Second City let-down edition

I made an effort to watch all three White Sox - Cubs games this past weekend, thinking that we (ChiSox) would have a chance to keep those pesky Twins at bay – and of course, show our cross-town rivals a thing or two.

Like I said in the WTN for the Cubs, boy was I being prophetic. Nary a word of trash-talk comes out of my fingers and the Sox spiral into some kind of bizarre, home-run allowing, non-moving-RISP, dribbler-down-the-line-for-a-double-play-hitting team.

I hate to admit it, but series like these prove the White Sox are at the top because the other teams aren’t winning. Much like the Twins winning the division for a while early in the decade, Ozzie’s Sox have been good enough to stay on top, but that won’t be true for long, as those pesky Twins are inching ever-so closer. And don’t look now, but the Tigers might make a run for it in the AL Central.

During those annoying in-game interviews, Joe Morgan asked Ozzie for one wish; Ozzie’s response: My hitters to get hot.

The Sox offense sputtered all weekend, producing a couple of home runs and some run-scoring singles, but not enough to counter the slugfest that was the Cubs’ line up. Aramis Ramirez? Are you serious? In fact, the Sox had the lead in the first two games but the bullpen just couldn’t hold on. And last night, Ryan Dempster won his ninth home-game in a row.

I hated the Octavio Dotel signing before the season began, and I hate it even more now. He gave up two consecutive home runs on Friday that got the Cubs back in the game. With his two blown saves, 3.31 ERA (second-highest in the Sox pen), and three losses, it’s plenty to skew perception towards the negative.

It’s still early, and the Cubbies still have to play three more in the South Side next weekend, so we’ll just save the condolences for then.

Now for the linkage:

[Baseball Musings] The let-down in stats: The White Sox had allowed 54 home runs before the seires. They allowed nine during those three games.

[Baseball Think Factory] Asking your top RBI producer to bunt with two runners on and nobody out? Well that or hit into a double play.

[Newsday's Baseball Insider] Kevin Davidoff’s sticking to his preseason prediction and thinks the Mets are more likely than the Yankees to make the playoffs.

[The LoHud Yankees Blog] “Prepare yourself for the return of Sir Sidney Ponson.”

[Palm Beach Post] M.C. Hammer may have gotten Jack McKeon fired.


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The Post Where I Under-Over-Estimate Kenny Williams

war_of_the_worlds_poster.jpgHave you ever heard the story of the 1938 radio broadcast The War of the Worlds? Supposedly, in October of that year, a young Orson Welles (before he became a legend for Citizen Kane) directed a radio adaptation of the H.G. Wells’ novel (before it became a legendary bad movie with Tom Cruise). But he had made the broadcast so realistic that some listeners were unaware that this was a fictional show. They really thought that they were listening to a news bulletin about aliens invading earth and supposedly ran around the streets in a panic. I learned about this fact/urban legend back in grade school and recall thinking at the time, “What dumbasses… Who’d believe a story like that? Aliens? Really?”

Flash forward to this past Friday, when I read via the Dominican sports news website Impacto Deportivo that the Chicago White Sox had signed Octavio Dotel to a two-year, $11m deal. I recall thinking at the time, “What dumbasses… Who’d believe a story like that? Dotel for 2-years and $11 million? Really?” My skepticism was such that I e-mailed the other UmpBump writers with the “news”:

From: Paul Moro
To: UmpBump Staff
I’m not sending this link along because I think it’s true. I’m sending this along because:
1. The advertisement makes it impossible to actually read the damned story
2. It’s funny to think that the White Sox would actually pay $11m for two years of perennially injured Octavio Dotel after signing Scott Linebrink to $19m/4
3. It actually ends the story with the word “Congratulations”. And that makes me smile.

Well, it appears I now have a ham and egg on my face. Thanks, Ken Rosenthal.

kenny-williams.jpgBut in my defense, who actually thought that Octavio Dotel would get a guaranteed multi-year deal for that much money? This is a reliever who has pitched 56 innings combined in the last three seasons. Did you catch that? 56 innings. Total. Last three years. And you know what he did in those 56 innings? He compiled a 5.14 ERA thanks in large part to the fact that he walked 5.5 guys per nine innings pitched. Who gives a guy like him a two-year $11 million deal? Who does this?

Well, Kenny Williams, apparently. And even though I’ve been critical of him before, I’m still left wondering as to whether or not I over-estimated him, or under-estimated his level of delusion. Or maybe I over-under-estimated him.

Congratulations.


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2007 Trade Deadline Roundup

I will analyze trades and rumored trades going down today, updating as news breaks. Latest news will be on top.

Red Sox acquire Eric Gagne from the Rangers for Kason Gabbard and minor leaguers David Murphy and Engel Beltre
I’m a big Kason Gabbard fan, so I think that the Rangers come out the winners in this one, especially given their desperate need for major-league-ready starting pitching. The Sox did avoid giving up any of their A-list prospects and moving Gabbard is helpful in the short term to clear room in the rotation for Schilling’s impending return, but they had to renegotiate Gagne’s contract to get him to waive his no trade clause, bumping up the price tag by several million, and they have consistently under-estimated Gabbard’s potential. If Gabbard ends up being a decent major league starter, the Sox may well regret giving him up for just two months and ~20 innings of Gagne.

Astros dump Morgan Ensberg on the Padres for a player to be named
The Padres continue their endless quest for a third baseman, which has been going on for more than two years now. No word yet on which minor leaguer the Astros are getting but it was probably nobody special since the Astros had designated Ensberg for assignment and had to trade him.

Padres get Rob Mackowiak from the White Sox for a player to be named
The Padres continue their search for answers in the outfield. Mackowiak is an even better option that yesterday’s acquisition, Scott Hairston, for the 4th outfielder role, so Hairston is probably headed to the minors. The White Sox are clearly sellers this year, so anything they can get for their impending free agents is a plus.

Braves get Octavio Dotel from the Royals Kyle Davies
This deal has been agreed to by both sides, but the Braves have to wait until the Teixera deal is finalized because Davies could potentially become the alternate player if the Rangers reject Matt Harrison for health reasons. This deal makes sense for both teams - the Braves have soured on Davies but the Royals would get a live arm to upgrade their ever-beleaguered rotation. There is speculation that Moore could have gotten a bit more for Dotel than Davies, but that his familiarity with Davies from his days in the Braves organization and his gut-feeling that Davies can be a star swung things in favor of the Braves.

Dodgers deal Wilson Betemit to the Yankees for Scott Proctor
At first glance this seems like a good deal for the Dodgers. Betemit had lost his starting job and had nowhere to play, and the Dodgers bullpen has been devastated by injuries and having to move Chad Billingsley, Mark Hendrickson, and Brett Tomko into the rotation to replace injured starters. However, Betemit’s low batting average of .231 conceals the fact that he has an extremely respectable OPS of .834, and by all rights should be starting at 3B over Nomar Garciaparra, who has a pathetic OPS of .690. Betemit’s OBP is .359; Nomar’s is .330. Betemit’s SLG is .474; Nomar’s is .360. Betemit has 10 home runs in 156 at-bats; Nomar has 4 home runs in 358 at bats. Meanwhile Scott Proctor has been one of the most abused pitchers in baseball since the beginning of 2006, and his peripherals are way down across the board since last year. So basically, this is a great deal for the Yankees. Betemit is a huge upgrade over Miguel Cairo as a utility infielder, and offers insurance at 3B should A-Rod opt out of his contract. Given a full year as a starter, Betemit should be able to hit 30 homers with a decent OBP.

Red Sox ship Joel Piniero to the Cardinals for a player to be named
This deal makes sense for both teams. The let’s-convert-piniero-to-a-bullpen-ace plan had been a complete bust for the Red Sox this season, so much so that they had busted Piniero down to the minors July 25. But for the Cardinals, Piniero immediately becomes something like their third best starting pitcher, so giving up a player-to-be-named seems like a pretty cheap price for a team with no starting pitching to speak of to gamble on Dave Duncan’s ability to help a player that is only 28 years old and has already started 148 big league games.


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