Oliver Perez’ much-awaited return to the big league rotation yields an outing of 5 innings pitched, two strikeouts, and seven walks. He needed 108 pitches to get through five, out of which 53 were balls. And this is considered progress.

For the record, Perez’s last start in AAA prior to being recalled saw him throw 92 pitches, out of which only half were strikes.

Yup, sounds to me like he got his kinks worked out.  Welcome back, Ollie. Because you’re still better than Tim Redding.

Bob Klapisch thinks the Mets deserve a refund.

Bob, I’m gonna give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that your editor wrote that headline. Because it’s a pretty stupid sentiment.

Still, it’s in print. And it’s stupid. So we’re gonna rip you a little. Just a little.

The Mets knew what they were getting when they signed Perez. You thought Saturday’s implosion in Philly was bad? Well, it was. But it wasn’t the first time!

Remember April 11, 2007? That was the day Perez walked 7 batters in a game against the Phils at Shea. In the top of the third inning he gave up a single to Chase Utley, then he walked Ryan Howard and Pat Burrell. Then he walked Wes Helms (the $1 man) to score Utley. Then he walked Aaron Rowand to score Howard. Then he hit Rod Barajas with a pitch to score Burrell. And then the Mets finally got the hook.

Rob Neyer went to the trouble of creating a table with numbers detailing some of the worst piching stretches of Perez’s Mets tenure. There have been numerous. Long. Stretches.

Umpbump’s Paul Moro (a Mets fan) has written about Perez on several occasions, and he would have written this post except that he’s up on a ledge right now, where internet access is spotty.

In October, before the Mets signed Perez, Paul said the pitcher would never return to his 2004 self:

Sure, wherever Ollie ends up, he’ll probably still rack up the strikeouts. But he’ll also keep walking 4+ guys per game. And while he’s been able to keep his actual ERA well below the FIP and xFIP over the past two seasons, it’s a decent bet that this can’t continue. Yes, he’s still young as he won’t turn 27 until June. But we’ve seen him for almost 1000 innings now and he hasn’t changed.

Of course, Paul was right. And Neyer was right.

This is who Perez is. Stop acting surprised.

NOTE: The following post was not written by a rational human being. Instead, it was written by a Met fan. If you notice any vast gaps in logic, this fan refuses to take any responsibility whatsoever. In fact, reading this post may make you dumber. You’ve been warned.

So Derek Lowe is heading down south to Atlanta, Georgia. Just a week or so ago, it appeared that he would be headed to Queens as the #2 starter in the Mets rotation. Then, the Braves got stupid.

No, I wouldn’t have given Smoltz a large contract either if I were the Braves. But after spinning the Rafael-Furcal-did-he-or-didn’t-he AND the Smoltz debacle until they got way too dizzy to think straight, the front office decided that it would be a great idea to spend $60 million on a 35-year old pitcher who can take them over the .500 mark. Awesome.

As they are currently constructed, the Braves are not very good. They won 72 games in 2008 (though their Pythag was of a 79-win team). Even after adding Javy Vazquez, Kenshin Kawakami and now Lowe, it’s still not enough to make them contenders in 2009.The gap between where they ended up in 2008 and where they need to be to justify all this money spent is too wide.

Yes, teams have made huge leaps in standings before – but the majority of these teams have done so because their young players improved simultaneously (ala Tampa) or their division is weak. Neither is true in this case.

Remember, the Braves offense had Mark Teixeira for most of last year. His production cannot be replaced by a full season of Casey Kotchman, who I assume will be better than he was during his Atlanta stint in 2008, but still  can’t be expected to post average numbers for a first baseman.

They should get good production out of Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar, but whiny Larry Jones’s health is always going to be a crapshoot.

And while I love Brian McCann, as of this moment, their OF consists of Brandon Jones/Gregor Blanco, Josh Anderson, and Jeff Francoeur.  That’s pretty horrendous. So really, the Braves offense is praying that Larry won’t have a long-overdue Hooters-related injury.

On top of it all, the Braves will be without Tim Hudson for the majority of the season. This doesn’t sound like a team that’s good enough to overtake the Phillies or the Mets.

So this signing really annoys the hell out of me. Why? Not because I’m concerned that the Braves are now better than my Mets. No. I’m annoyed because the Braves’ idiocy means that the Mets are stuck trying to go after Oliver Perez, who will now most likely be asking for a four-year deal.

I’ve made my opinions known about Ollie already. His numbers aren’t anything that can’t be replaced by cheaper options and his walk totals are always going to haunt him. I really don’t want to have to cheer for him again. And yet, he’s now the best option left on the free agent market (though I think Ben Sheets is more talented). All this because the Braves panicked.

WHY MUST YOU SCREW ME EVEN IN MEDIOCRITY, ATLANTA? WHY? WHY CAN’T I EVER WIN WITH YOU?

Yesterday was the first day that those eligible for free agency this off season were able to file, and among the 65 players who did so was Oliver Perez. MetsBlog.com writes that Ollie will initially seek upwards of $50MM over five years, “while eventually settling on a three– or four-year deal later in the off-season”.

Perez has now logged just a shade under 1000 innings in his major league career that began in 2002 with the Padres. He rose to fame in 2004 as the 22-year old future lefty ace of the Pittsburgh Pirates, going 12-10, posting an ERA of 2.98 with 239 Ks over 196 innings. Four full seasons later, we’re still yet to see another year quite like that out of him. The popular opinion of Perez seems to be that he’s an erratic, yet at times dominant young pitcher with loads of potential that just hasn’t been tapped.

Over the past two plus years since he became a Met, I’ve cheered for Ollie. And quite frankly, I’m hoping that I won’t have to ever again. Why? Because he’s not good. He’s not good enough to warrant his reputation, and he’s certainly not good enough to receive such a large contract – even at three or four years.

It appears that there’s still a lot of people out there who think that Perez will be able to duplicate his 2004 season once again with the proper instruction. And it’s never going to happen. We have four full seasons worth of information to work with here that shows why.

For one, in that 2004 season, Ollie struck out an incredible 11.5 batters per nine innings. That’s impressive for a closer. For a starter who logged close to 200 innings, that’s incredible. But he followed that up with disastrous 2005 and 2006 as a Pirate, seeing his strikeouts per nine plummet to 7.9 and 6.5 respectively. And although he’s gotten those numbers back into “good” territory since he was traded in July of 2006 to New York, it’s still quite a ways away from 11.5. On top of that, Perez’ walks per nine innings haven’t been better than it was in ‘04 either, peaking (in a bad way) in 2005 with 5.7 free passes per game.

But that’s not all. The Hardball Times keeps a stat called FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching). In the simplest terms, FIP is what that particular pitcher’s ERA would be if the defense behind him was the same as that for every other pitcher. Taking it a step further, Hardball also uses something called xFIP (Expected Fielding Independent Pitching), which calculates what the FIP of each pitcher would be if his HR-allowed were more in line with his flyball rates (It’s generally believed that if a significant percentage of the flyballs given up by the pitcher are going over the fence, it’s either due to a small ballpark or just plain bad luck). For those of you who believe that this stuff is just fancy mumbo-jumbo, just know that it’s a very useful tool to be able to predict the future ERA of pitchers.

Anyhow, if you look at these stats for Oliver Perez (chart on right), you’ll notice something. Since 2005, Perez’ ERA has ranged widely from a low of 3.56 to a high of 6.63. What about FIP? It’s a much smaller range, from 4.36 to 6.19. And it’s even tighter for xFIP – 4.65 to 6.10.

So what does this tell us? For one, Oliver Perez is a below average starter whose ERA should be in the high-4s or even low 5s. And he’s not really that inconsistent on a year to year basis. Aside from that 2006 tenure with the Pirates (which lasted for 15 games), there are no real outliers. His xFIP has been predictable. What has varied is his level of luck and the quality of the defense that’s been behind him. Put an average defensive team behind Oliver Perez and all those guys he’s walking are going to score.

Sure, whereever Ollie ends up, he’ll probably still rack up the strikeouts. But he’ll also keep walking 4+ guys per game. And while he’s been able to keep his actual ERA well below the FIP and xFIP over the past two seasons, it’s a decent bet that this can’t continue. Yes, he’s still young as he won’t turn 27 until June. But we’ve seen him for almost 1000 innings now and he hasn’t changed.

Now do you want to spend $10MM a year on this guy?

Before the season started, Peter Gammons predicted the Mets were the team to beat in the NL East, “because the Mets may have the best four-man rotation in the National League East or perhaps the entire National League, period.”

Here was his reasoning:

Johan Santana is arguably the best pitcher in the game. Pedro Martinez has had a very encouraging spring, with Saturday’s outing against Washington more proof of his recovery. Pedro is not going to ever throw 95 mph again, but he is looser than he has been in years (he still doesn’t have to ice his shoulder), his command of four pitches is outstanding and he is so intelligent that he doesn’t have to throw harder than 88 mph to win. Oliver Perez is up in the 93-mph range with a very good slider.

Perhaps the most encouraging part of the mix for the Mets this spring has been John Maine. Two years ago, GM Omar Minaya, who stole Maine in the Kris Benson trade, predicted Maine would be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Two years of working with pitching coach Rick Peterson and Maine may be just that. The Indians faced him Wednesday night and thought he was the best pitcher they’ve seen all spring. Where he was essentially a one-pitch, 92-94 mph fastball pitcher, Maine has been throwing 94-96 this spring with an improving slider and changeup to go along with his ability to command the fastball on all four quadrants of the plate.

Until they know what’s going to happen with El Duque, who for now is still throwing no higher than the low 80s, the fifth spot is in flux. But a fifth starter is usually a work in progress, and remember this — without Santana or Pedro and with Maine a work in progress — the Mets starters last year led the NL in wins and quality starts. So with the Phillies pitching in some question and John Smoltz and Mike Hampton set to leave Florida with slight physical questions, there seems little doubt that the Mets will head north with the premier starting pitching in the National League East.

That evaluation seemed entirely reasonable at the time, but now one has to wonder what Gammons would have predicted if somebody told him that Martinez would alternate this season between injured and awful, that Maine would take a major step backwards and sit out the last month of the season with a bone spur, that El Duque would miss the entire season, and that Oliver Perez would start slowly.

I’m guessing he’d probably give the Mets zero chance of winning the division.

Just goes to show that even the best made plans sometimes go awry — and sometimes things still work out. Thank god for Mike Pelfrey, eh New York?

Most things are looking up for the Metropolitans these days. By reeling off 10 wins in a row recently, the Mets have gotten themselves back into the thick of the NL East race. Carlos Delgado has rediscovered his stroke after a horrid start, the emergence of Mike Pelfrey and the re-emergence of Oliver Perez has solidified the rotation, and the bullpen is performing much better under new pitching coach Dan Warthen and the more adept bullpen management of new manager Jerry Manuel.

But the one place the Mets still have a gaping hole is in the outfield, where scrapheap find Fernando Tatis is manning right field and bench-player-at-best Endy Chavez has been pressed into fulltime service in left. This unfortunate situation has arisen due to the ailments of Moises Alou (which should have been foreseen), and the continuing concussion woes of Ryan Church (which the Mets badly exacerbated by rushing him back).

But regardless of the cause of the situation, something needs to be done, as the Mets can ill afford to miss out on offensive production from crucial corner spots in such a tight three-way race in the East. While it’s true that Church may eventually come back (possibly as soon as next week), and that Tatis may keep up his strong hitting (Alou on the other hand, is done for the year), the Mets can not afford to gamble on both of those things happening, and should go out and acquire a corner outfielder before the deadline.

Fortunately for the Mets, several of those appear to be available.

- What They Need Index -

Our UmpBump Fantasy League is getting tighter and tighter in the standings. Comfortable leads are now slimming down. Two owners have already made a combined 93 roster moves. which may be a record. But then again, with so many notable players hitting the DL over the past week (John Smoltz, Ryan Zimmerman, David Ortiz, Carlos Pena, Rickie Weeks, Jeremy Bonderman, Aaron Hill, and the indispensable Clete Thomas), it’s looking like a necessity…

Alejandro: So how’s it going? Good? Well? Swell? Great, I’m fine; just dandy. D’you see those White Sox? Boy that Ozzie Guillen can really get under his team’s skin, and boy do they respond! Ok fine, I didn’t want to do it, but I guess I have to talk about my fantasy team. I’m so good I don’t wanna talk about it lest I jinx it. I was this close to losing in week 9, but last week I just brought it, and my Center Field Stud whopped freebase my balls (yes that’s the name) 11-1. That lone loss came as a result of a 2.91 ERA, which was obviously not enough to beat balls’ 2.59. But really, my offense was firing on all cylinders. I mean, I had guys on the bench who were racking up stats. My pitching was decent, B.J. Ryan blew a save and had a balloon-like 16.20 ERA (I wonder if that’s what prevented a perfect 12-0?). And Mark Hendrickson seems to be coming back to earth. Don’t look now, but that first place seems awfully close at 7.5 games ahead. Hot: Dan Uggla, Chipper Jones, Hanley Ramirez, Jermaine Dye, Josh Beckett, Tim Lincecum, Kerry Wood (hot!!), Gavin Floyd, Jon Garland. Notable mildness: Eric Chavez. Not: Mark Hendrickson, B.J. Ryan, Alex Gordon (trade anyone?).

Coley: This week my team put a 9-3 beat down on Montefusco’s Revenge, a feat that is made more amazing by the fact that I had to overcome Oliver Perez’s 162.00 ERA. Overcome it I did, and Perez is now on the waiver wire. That’s the good news. The bad news is that, moments after trading away Todd Helton for Rich Harden, Carlos Pena hit the DL. All of a sudden I found myself sans a first basemen AND an extra infielder. So I picked up Mark Teahen and Carlos Delgado and they’ll just have to do until Pena and Chone Figgins return from the DL. Now my only problem is what to do with Jorge Posada. He’s back and he’s looking healthy, but I am perfectly content with Bengie Molina. I’ve tried to trade Posada but so far there have been no takers. Should I cut him? I just can’t bring myself to do it. Hot: Milton Bradley, Johnny Damon, Yunel Escobar. Not: Oliver Perez, Brandon Phillips.

Sarah: The Green Sox took a 6-5 squeaker last week over team caitlin grace, who goes all-lowercase, e.e. cummings-style. Embarassingly, she’s last in our league, hasn’t logged in in nearly a month, and has made zero roster moves all season long. But a win is a win, and this one marked an important milestone for my team: I finally won the saves category. With John Smoltz out for the season, I’m hoping the Braves will give my Rafael Soriano a long leash. With Pedro Martinez coming off the DL, I spent much of the week trying to find a taker for a pitcher to clear a space on my roster, but had no luck. Then Vernon Wells came off the DL and Rickie Weeks went on, necessitating even more maneuvering. Ultimately, I dropped Dana Eveland, Hong Chih Kuo, and Santiago Casilla and added Joel Zumaya and Akinori Iwamura. Hot: J.D. Drew, David Murphy (though the poor kid never gets a chance to play for me—trade anyone?), Vernon Wells, Ian Kinsler, Troy Glaus. Not: Andy Pettitte (I thought it was safe to pitch him against the Royals!), Matt Cain, Jacoby Ellsbury.

Paul: My high school gym teacher, the legendary John Donodeo, used to say, “a tie is like kissing your sister!” Mr. Donodeo, that’s just gross. I really think I’d just rather tie. And so would 98% of god-fearing Americans (statistic not applicable in West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Philadelphia). But I did manage to pull off a draw this week against the team whose name is most difficult to type, Box89RowKKSeat14 (Ania). My offense was dominated but my pitching staff picked up the slack. That’s not to say that all my bats were silent. Brian Roberts, Edwin Encarnacion, and Shane Victorino did their best, but the only category I won on offense was Runs Scored. On the mound, the only pitcher who stumbled was Cliff Lee, and he still picked up a win despite allowing six runs in five innings (proof #876,329,861,734,896 that Wins are an arbitrary stat). But Scott Kazmir just keeps rolling. Have you seen just how good he’s been? He began the year late due to an injury, but since his return, he’s pitched 45 innings, averaging almost 10Ks per 9IP, less than 3 walks per 9, allowing a mere (but unsustainable) .22 HRs per game, a 0.91 WHIP and 1.40 ERA. On a totally, completely and utterly unrelated note, the Mets are 7.5 games back in the NL East and Victor Zambrano is sporting a 9.45 ERA. In Colorado Springs. AAA. Excuse me, I need to go get a tissue. Hot: Brian Roberts, Edwin Encarnacion, Shane Victorino, Trevor Hoffman, George Sherrill, Scott Kazmir. Not: Geovany Soto, David Wright, Jhonny Peralta, Cliff Lee.

Standings, with games behind:

1. Paul (ElDuquesInjuryReport) (0)

2. Scott (Utley’s Firm Quads) (3.5)

3. Doug (Swamp Dragons) (5)

4. Alejandro (Center Field Stud) (7.5)

5. Sarah (Somerville Green Sox) (13.5)

6. Kirk (Montefusco’s Revenge) (23)

7. Bryan (Pirates in 08!) (24.5)

8. Ania (Box89RowKKSeat14) (26.5)

9. Larry (croutchyoldman) (26.5)

10. Coley (Crunkball All Stars) (28.5)

11. Sooze (freebase my balls) (34.5)

12. Caitlin (caitlin grace) (35)

Drunk, belligerent Al Reyes to arresting officer: “Don’t tase me, bro!” (DRaysBay)

In other booze news, Drunk Jays Fans is having a healthy debate about all those…drunk…Jays…fans. How apt.

El Lefty Malo has an intriguing suggestion for Barry Zito: send him down.

Fire Joe Morgan took their sarcastic snark to new heights yesterday with YouTube. Epic.

I love reading CenterField. This woman has gone above and beyond to bring us the video of Jonathan Papelbon’s asstastic Dunkin Donuts commerical. I have been waiting for this moment all week!

There’s a reason UmpBumper Nick didn’t join our fantasy league. “You guys have to understand, fantasy sports is like crack to me,” he confessed. “Once I start, I can’t stop.” Sound familiar to any of you? Well, here’s a way to save yourself from yourself. (RotoNation)

Edgar Renteria apparently likes getting booed now (”When the fans boo me, that’s real exciting”) reports the Boston Herald. That’s not what he said when he left Boston for the Braves, when he said that an early booing by Red Sox fans caused him to put too much pressure on himself. “I don’t know if [the fans] were looking for 30 homers, like Garciaparra in the past did, but it was crazy,” he kvetched at the time, adding “I had never been booed in my career.” We weren’t looking for thirty homers. We just didn’t want thirty errors.

The Red Sox and the homers they hit, from Me and Pedro. An excellent chuckle (at least for Sox fans).

Since 1956, only 5 pitchers have gone their first three starts without giving up a run. Today, tomorrow, and Sunday, three pitchers will try to match this feat—Ben Sheets, Oliver Perez, and Kyle Lohse. Get the details from Baseball Reference’s Stat of the Day.

Doug Glanville’s writing a guest column for the NYT this season.

Also, there’s a Red Sox t-shirt buried under the new Yankee Stadium.

Thank you, that is all.