When the Tampa Bay Rays signed LF/DH Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract this past off-season, I thought that the defending AL champs had gotten a steal – especially in comparison to the 3-year $31.5 million deal that his replacement in Philadelphia, Raul Ibanez, would garner from Burrell’s old team. And while I won’t make final judgments until these two contracts are completed, it’s looking like I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

While Ibanez was posting career-best numbers as a 37-year old Phillie, Burrell was doing the exact opposite in Tampa. His walk rate is below career norms, he’s striking out more often than he has in several seasons and his power has seemingly disappeared (.385 SLG? Who are you?).

To his credit, the guy isn’t making excuses for himself. But that also means that we don’t quite know if there’s something wrong that can be fixed during the off-season.

There are, however, potential explanations for his dip in performance that could portend a much better season in 2010:

1. The talent gap between the AL East and NL East. Especially over the past few seasons, the quality of pitching in the NL East has been slightly underwhelming. Johan Santana didn’t enter the division until 2008 so the only top-level SP that Burrell had to face consistently over the last few seasons was John Smoltz. Now in the big boys league, he has to face the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Can Burrell adjust to the higher quality pitching at the age of 33? I haven’t the faintest.
2. Hiding an injury. You wouldn’t expect a player to have such a dramatic drop in power numbers from one season to another and especially not at Burrell’s age. This is a guy who had slugged over .500 from 2005-2008. How does he become a sub-.400 slugger seemingly overnight? If he had a serious injury, that would explain quite a lot.
3. He’s done this before. The main reason why I don’t believe that Pat Burrell is washed up is because of his 2003 season. A year prior to that, the then-26-year old had a very strong line of .282/.376/.544 with 37 HRs. He had become on of the  better offensive threats in the National League. But he followed it up with a very disappointing season where he batted .209/.309/.404 with 21 HRs. And despite a wrist injury in 2004, his numbers rebounded very well and he was a solid hitter for the rest of his stay in Philadelphia. No actual reason (none that I saw, anyway) was ever really given for his sharp drop in production in 2003.

I am not going to say that any of these potential reasons are correct because at this point, I have no way of knowing anything. But I will say that Burrell most likely is not done, simply because it’s rare for a 33 year old hitter to fall off such a steep cliff. There’s got to be a reason aside from “decline” that ruined Burrell’s 2009 season. I just don’t quite know what that reason may be.

Because people will be upset if I wrote about Burrell and didn't include this photo...

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at UmpBump, and this week’s honoree is Michelle Burrell, the wife of former Phillies outfielder and current Tampa Bay Rays DH Pat Burrell.

Before marrying Pat, former Michelle Fonseca served a five-year tour of duty in the US Marines. She credits her time in the Marines with developing her love of physical fitness, which recently inspired her to open up a cycling fitness center in Tampa, Florida.

Michelle and Pat got engaged in the spring of 2007 (pictures after the jump) and were married the following offseason, on November 10, 2007, in California.

Read the rest of this entry »

Last year was a year of big firsts for the Tampa Bay Rays. New uniforms. New name. And a new habit: winning.

Also, fighting.

From their Spring training clashes with the Yankees to their June brawl with the Red Sox, the AL East’s big kahunas were put on notice early: no longer would the Tampa Bay Rays be the hapless losers of the AL East, finishing under .400 and wearing teal.

For some, their sudden kickassery was unexpected — “Bizarro Baseball,” Sports Illustrated called it, in a cover story that featured a cartoon Ray giving a Yankee the ol’ one-two. Yet that was just the tip of the “Rays Actually Good; Baseball World Stunned” media iceberg. For those who’d been paying closer attention, the question was never whether the talented young Rays would have a breakout season. It was when. At the very least, the last half of 2007 pointed to a much-improved Rays squad in 2008. For 2009, the question for this year becomes: will Tampa regress, as most teams do after worst-to-first seasons? Or could they actually improve ? (The latter is entirely possible, given their number of young, still-developing players.)

The Rays front office seems to be, sensibly, charting a middle course between these two extremes. According to Pythagoras, Tampa won an “extra” five games last year, which could have still been good enough to get them into the playoffs as the Wild Card team. Hence it makes sense that instead of making any splashy trades or expensive free agent signings, Tampa’s FO has set about collecting a few inexpensive pieces to round out their ballclub.

The most notable signing has been the signing of free agent slugger Pat “the Bat” Burrell. Though Burrell played left field for the Phillies, he will be DH-ing for the Rays. (There’s a reason they don’t call him “Pat the Glove,” and it’s not because it doesn’t rhyme.) The Rays managed to snag Burrell — 32 years old, hit 30 homers and OBP’ed .400 last year — for two years at $8 million a pop. That should be a considerable upgrade over last year’s main DH, Cliff Floyd (36 years old, OBP’ed .349 and hit 11 homers in 80 games last year), and plug Tampa’s main lineup hole.

On the field, Tampa’s main need last year was an every day rightfielder. The need for another outfielder became more pressing once it became clear that BJ Upton (recovering from shoulder surgery) would not be available to start the ‘09 season — in the intensively competitive AL East, getting off to a slow start is not an option. So, for the short term, they picked up Gabe Kapler for an easy one-year, $1 million contract. For the long term, they traded for toolsy corner outfield prospect Matt Joyce, sending Edwin Jackson to Detroit. Joyce played in 92 games for the listless Tigers last year, but the feeling around baseball seems to be that he could use a chance to play every day in the minors before being called up again.

Added: Pat Burrell, Joe Nelson, Gabe Kapler, Lance Cormier

Lost: Rocco Baldelli, Trever Miller (and have yet to re-sign free agents Cliff Floyd, Eric Hinske, and Jonny “Fists of Fury” Gomes)

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer:

CF: BJ Upton
2B: Akinori Iwamura
3B: Evan Longoria
DH: Pat Burrell
1B: Carlos Pena
C: Dioner Navarro
SS: Jason Bartlett
RF: Gabe Kapler/Matt Joyce
LF: Carl Crawford

SP1: James Shields
SP2: Scott Kazmir
SP3: Matt Garza
SP4: Andy Sonnanstine
SP5: David Price

CL: Joe Nelson

Grade: A

I’m having a hard time imagining what they could have done better, except maybe reel in a few more relievers. But that’s nit-picking. The addition of Burrell helps address Tampa’s main weakness — an underachieving offense. But with Burrell, a full year of Evan Longoria, a healthier team than last year’s, and a lucky break or two, this offense looks more than a little intimidating. Defensively, the addition of Kapler as a backup only bolsters their already slick-fielding club. They have nice depth, with Gabe Gross and Fernando Perez ready to help out in the outfield. Pitching-wise, the Rays are still loaded with young guns. In the bullpen, they picked up Lance Cormier, and the signing of reliever Joe Nelson gives them some insurance for aging closer Troy Percival (who, it’s worth mentioning, is the only player on the team over 35). Short version: the Rays have taken a strong young club and, with some thoughtful tweakage, made it even stronger.

-Hot Offseason Action index -

To celebrate the upcoming inauguration, each day we’ll post a different Obamicon, featuring one of our favorite baseball personalities. Today, we present Pat Burrell (take one drink).

The Phillies drafted Burrell with the first pick in the 1998 MLB draft and from day one his play (on and off the field) was such that fans were inspired to ask the question: man or machine?

While his patient approach at the plate led some to believe that Burrell was hard-wired, the tales of his numerous female conquests led me to a singular conclusion: Burrell is all man.

Everyone in Philadelphia — not just the ladies — will miss Burrell. He was a talented ballplayer with a gift for negotiating the city’s sometimes hyper-critical media and fickle fans. But above all, he was a hunk.

Today Philly Daily News columnist Bill Conlin tells us to rest easy — Raul Ibanez is going to be way better than Pat Burrell ever was. And the 2009 Phillies lineup, which is chock full of lefthanded hitters, will be much improved.

From Philly.com:

Manuel will have some flexibility. You could see a lineup against a lefthanded starter that opens with the World Series alignment that flipped Victorino and Werth in the Nos. 2 and 6 holes. Ask CC Sabathia, now in Yankees pinstripes, how that worked out. With Werth establishing himself as a certified power threat, Charlie could bat Shane No. 2, Utley 3, Howard 4, Werth 5 and Ibanez 6. And please don’t start with, “Don’t tell me they’re gonna pay $10 million a year to a No. 6 hitter.” The Phillies just got through paying $14 million a year for a guy who hit .257, struck out a ton, clogged the bases, hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2005, has never scored 100 runs, and is a seven-inning player.

Crashburn Alley (who you may remember has a bit of a history with Conlin) has taken the time to break Conlin’s column down Fire Joe Morgan-style. But somehow Crashburn neglected to take Conlin to task for accusing Burrell of clogging the bases. And I’m not gonna let that slide.

I’d rather turn this one over to an expert. Here’s what FJM’s Junior (Alan Yang) had to say about base-clogging in April:

The problem is, 99.99463% of the time when writers use “clog the bases” or “clog the basepaths” or some variant thereof, the guy they’re accusing of base-clogging is way better at getting on base, hitting home runs (the opposite of base-clogging — it’s base-Drano-ing!), or both. So it makes little to no sense to complain about their lack of speed.

There’s no debating that Burrell is slow. But it’s not like his replacement, Ibanez, is greased lighting. Moreover, as Junior points out, it doesn’t make any sense to criticize Burrell for base-clogging when he does a better job at getting on base — and clearing them with home runs (.367 OBP/33 HR in 2008) — than Ibanez (.358/23).

The lesson learned here, Bill, is that it’s never a good idea to borrow phrases from Dusty Baker.

Today the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30MM contract. This means Pat “The Bat” Burrell won’t be back.

Is Ibanez really better than Burrell? Let’s look at the numbers.

Last year Ibanez hit 23 home runs. Burrell hit 33. Over the last three seasons Ibanez has 77 home runs and Burrell has 92. Advantage: Burrell.

Ibanez is pretty much a lock to have an OBP around .350. Burrell, on the other hand, has a career OBP of .367, and last season his OBP was — wait for it — .367. Advantage: Burrell.

Ibanez doesn’t rely on walks to get on base to the same extent that Burrell does. His batting average last season was .293, compared to Burrell’s .250. That helps explain why Ibanez’s RBI totals are consistently above 100, while Burrell couldn’t crack 90 in 2008. Advantage: Ibanez.

Now let’s talk about defense.

Last season, Burrell was last among qualified NL left fielders in Revised Zone Rating (.829), meaning he didn’t get to many balls that were hit near him. Ibanez’s Revised Zone Rating was second among qualified AL left fielders (.893). Advantage: Ibanez.

In 2008, Burrell played 50 fewer innings in left than Ibanez but still had more out of zone plays. Advantage: Burrell.

Over the past three seasons, Burrell has thrown out 25 percent more runners than the average left fielder, but he’s been less successful holding runners — holding two fewer runners than average. Ibanez (who didn’t play the outfield in 2006), threw out almost 28 more runners than the average left fielder (in 2005, 2007 and 2008), but he was just average when it came to preventing runners from advancing. Advantage: Ibanez.

John Dewan’s Fielding Bible says Burrell made 20 fewer plays than the average left fielder in 2008, while Ibanez made 18 fewer plays. Advantage: Nobody.

So what does it all mean?

The good news is that it’s pretty clear that Ibanez is a better defensive player, though Burrell sets the bar pretty damn low. Offensively, Ibanez doesn’t hit for power like Burrell does, nor does he get on base as often, but his higher batting average could lead to more RBIs (though that’s not a given). And logic would dictate that Ibanez will flourish now that he’s departing Seattle’s anemic lineup and landing in the middle of Philly’s high-powered offense.

On the other hand, signing Ibanez will cost the Phillies a draft pick because the Mariners offered Ibanez arbitration. Moreover, Philadelphia won’t gain a draft pick when Burrell signs elsewhere because new GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. didn’t offer Pat “The Bat” arbitration.

Why didn’t Amaro offer Burrell arbitration? Because he was afraid Burrell would accept. But would that have been so bad? Burrell might have made as much as $16MM in 2009. That’s a lot of money and more than Ibanez will make. But signing Burrell to a one-year deal would also free up cash to sign a better LF in 2010, when the market could be flush with corner outfielders like Matt Holiday, Rick Ankiel, Vlad Guerero, Xavier Nady and Jason Bay.

When you boil it down, Ibanez and Burrell are both similar players. And since Ibanez will probably be cheaper than Burrell over the course of the next three years, this signing makes some sense. But when you factor in the loss of a draft pick and the fact that Ibanez will be 37 come June and 39 in the final year of this deal…well, I’m not sure one year of Burrell and a return trip to the free agent market wasn’t the better option.

UPDATE: The 700 Level has this to say about the Ibanez signing:

Already a lefty-heavy lineup, adding another southpaw doesn’t exactly sound like a great idea, despite Ibanez’s overall numbers. But he did hit lefties well last season, better, in fact, than he hit righties. His average against lefties was .305, and his OBP was .371, and he slugged .497. Versus righties, those numbers were .288, .352, and .470, respectively.

However, those splits might be misleading. Over the last three years, here are his numbers against lefties: .269 avg, .325 OBP, and .410 slugging; against righties over that span: .300, .366, .526, respectively.

Rob Neyer, meanwhile, pretty much agrees that Ibanez and Burrell are very similar players.

Is he a man? Is he a machine? Science still isn’t sure. What we do know is that, when he’s hot, he’s one of the best hitters around. But lately, Pat the Bat has been anything but hot.

On September 9, the Phillies gave Burrell a rest. At the time, he was in the middle of a terrible slump, hitting a major-league-low .168 (18 for 107) since August 6, dropping his overall average from .278 to .253.

Since he returned to the lineup, Burrell hasn’t improved much, if at all. It looked like maybe he was poised to break out of his slump over the weekend, hitting a home run against the Brewers. But last night he struck out. And then he struck out again. And Again. And Again. And again.

That’s right, Burrell went 0-5 with five strikeouts, acheiving the elusive platinum sombrero. So, maybe it’s time to talk about other options in left field. This is not the time of year for patience. It’s the time of year where you go with the hot hand. There’s no loyalty in September. You do what it takes to win, period (see: Ned Yost, Brewers).

Burrell was the team’s MVP in the first half of the season. But he’s not hitting now, and he hasn’t hit a lick since July. And let’s face it, if Burrell isn’t hitting, he’s of zero value. In 2007, Burrell allowed 19.6 more runs to score than the average left fielder would have in his 1028 innings. So per inning, Burrell’s defense is worth negative 0.019 runs. That’s pretty bad.

The Phillies don’t have a ton of other options. Eric Bruntlett is no doubt a better defensive left fielder than Burrell, but it’s unclear how much better, since he didn’t play enough in left field last seaon to get a good idea of his ultimate zone rating. So Taguchi is a fantastic defensive outfielder. He allowed 8.2 fewer runs than the average left fielder. Over his 212 innings, his defense saved .037 runs per inning.

Philadelphia has suffered Burrell’s woeful glove all season, because his hitting made up for his defense. They waited patiently in July and August for him to break out of his slump. But now the season is on the line. Time is running out. And the Phillies can’t afford to be patient.

Is it finally time to bench The Bat?