Last week, I wrote this somewhat silly Metro column about why Red Sox fans should root for the Phillies. I was being glib and slightly facetious. But tonight, I really do think that everyone in their right mind should be rooting for the Phillies — specifically, for Pedro Martinez.

There’s nothing like a good sports redemption story, and Pedro’s tale has all the ingredients. He has crazy hair, says crazy things, has a crazy secret love child. He is winless in his last 5 playoff starts at Yankee Stadium, dating back to 2003. He once admitted that the Yankees were his “daddy.” And he’s also one of the best pitchers of all time. (Remember that time back in 2000 when he posted an ERA+ of 291?!? Well, I do.)

And yet despite his sustained dominance — three Cy Youngs, eight All-Star picks, nine seasons with 200+ strikeouts including two seasons with 300+ strikeouts — he always retains the flavor of the underdog. Maybe it’s his diminutive size. Maybe it’s the arm-hanging-by-a-thread thing that’s made it seem for 10 years like every great game might be his last. Maybe it’s because he’s come thisclose to an MVP (in 1999, denied by voters who didn’t think a pitcher should win), thisclose to a perfect game (in 1995, when, after retiring 27 batters, the game was still scoreless) and now, just maybe, thisclose to being the only pitcher to win a Cy Young and a World Series ring in both leagues. Or maybe it’s because we remember that he was just the younger, smaller brother from a poor town in the Dominican; the one who might, with luck, one day be nearly as good as Ramon.

“I’m someone who wasn’t meant to be,” he said, “And here I am on the big stage.”

Here’s hoping he gets to take a well-deserved curtain call.

Tonight Pedro Martinez struck out 11 batters in a minor league rehab start. He threw 82 pitches — 60 strikes — and showed that he’s ready for big league action.

The only question is, who will lose his spot in the Phillies’ rotation once Pedro comes on board?

Lots of people have lots of theories about this. My favorite belongs to the Philadelphia Daily News’ David Murphy, who seems to be a little conflicted, and must be getting paid by the inch.

Here’s my take:

There are two candidates to get bumped from the Phils’ rotation.

In one corner we have Jamie Moyer, who is old and seems like a really nice guy. Both this season and last, Moyer has won more games than any Phillies pitcher. But in 2009 his ERA has ballooned to 5.55 — the third highest in the NL among qualified pitchers. What’s more, his FIP and BABIP indicate that he hasn’t been particularly lucky or unlucky this season. He really is this bad.

In the other corner we have J.A. Happ, who has emerged as a (leading?) candidate for rookie of the year. Happ is in the top-10 in the NL in ERA, but his 4.21 FIP suggests he probably won’t stay there long, while his .254 BABIP is probably a little low to sustain.

Happ could return to the bullpen, where he has excelled. Moyer, on the other hand, probably isn’t suited to a bullpen role, as it takes him too long to warmup.

The conclusion? This is an easy decision. Even if Happ’s luck runs out, he’s still a better pitcher than Moyer, and the numbers back it up. Also, as Nick pointed out a month ago, if the Phillies cut Moyer now (or put him on the DL with an imaginary injury) they’ll save $4MM in 2010.

Not that this should matter much, but keeping Happ in the rotation will also afford him experience starting high-leverage games, which will benefit him in future seasons.

Once the playoffs start, the Phils can move either Happ or Martinez to the bullpen, depending on which one has the hotter hand. But for now, Happ has earned the right to stay in the rotation.

Jamie Moyer is a great guy, but there’s no room for a 5.55 ERA on a championship team.

UPDATE:

From David Murphy’s High Cheese blog comes word that Happ is staying in the rotation, and the Phils might use a six-man rotation. “Happ’s not going out of anywhere,” Amaro says. Good grief.

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at UmpBump, and this week’s honoree is Carolina Cruz de Martinez, the wife of Pedro Martinez.

Born in San Geronimo in the Dominican Republic before emigrating to the US with her family, Carolina first met Pedro in 1998 when he was pitching for the Boston Red Sox and she was a sophomore at Boston College. Pedro would often create a stir at BC in those days when he would show up on campus to watch her play in college volleyball matches.

Carolina went on to become a reporter for ESPN Deportes before marrying Pedro in November of 2005.  Today, Carolina run’s Pedro’s charitable foundation, the Pedro Martinez and Brothers Foundation, which contributes to a wide variety of charitable causes both in the US and the Domincan Republic.

In recent years, Carolina and the Foundation have been particularly involved in helping poor Dominicans rebuild after devastating hurricanes, and with Carolina’s personal brainchild, the “Power in Learning”program, which develops programs to help young girls in the Dominican have access to a good education.

More pictures after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

Yesterday the Washington Post’s Cameron Smith posted a little ditty titled “Why Pudge is a huge step forward for the Astros.” It’s full of wrongheadedness and backward thinking. If we didn’t know better we’d think Ned Coletti was moonlighting as a Post columnist.

The column is so bad that we feel compelled to ridicule it FJM style. Here goes.

[T]he Astros organization raved about what Rodriguez might bring to the team, adding veteran leadership and a more reliable bat.

Sure, the Astros have a shortstop who aged 2 years at the start of last season (now he’s 35), but if there’s one thing a team can’t get enough of it’s veteran leadership. Remember last season when Brad Ausmus’ leadership amounted to a .599 OPS? That was awesome.

All the hype is legitimate for a team that expected to start the season with either Humberto Quintero or J.R. Towles behind the dish. Sure, either one of them could have turned out to be a Jesus Flores or Giovani (sic) Soto (hey, maybe one still will), but Rodriguez is more than just an upgrade at catcher, he’s a player who immediately puts the Astros in the mix for the Wild Card or Division race, assuming they stay healthy.

You’re hoping that your catcher performs like Jesus Flores? The guy with a sub-.300 OBP? Really?

It’s not entirely clear that Rodriguez is an upgrade over Towles, as FanGraphs points out.  And there’s the issue of Houston and the wild card. Baseball Prospectus projects the Astros will finish this season in fourth place with 68 wins. According to Smith, Pudge makes them a contender. So if you put any stock in BP’s projections, the man is worth an extra 15-20 wins. That’s impressive. And can you believe that Pudge made neither Buster Olney’s list of the top ten most indispensible players, nor Baseball Prospectus’s list? Me neither. I’m betting Smith would be stunned as well.

Yes, Pudge is getting older, but if you discount his slumptacular stretch with the Yankees last summer, Rodriguez has always hit above .273 (at least since his third season in 1993), and while his OPS (on-base percentage plus sligging (sic again)) has dropped significant (sic sic sic) since a monstrous season in 2004, he still making contact with the ball and, as he showed with Puerto Rico, he still has the potential to be a game changer.

“Slumptactular.” That’s a great word. I’ve got to write that down.

This is a tightrope Smith is walking. He wants us to disregard Pudge’s stint as a Yankee last season, presumably because it’s just a small sample and, hey, slumps happen. But he wants us to value Pudge’s performance in the WBC — an even smaller sample! That’s thin.

Here’s a more reliable number: Over the past two seasons Pudge’s OBP has hovered around .300. His slugging percentage has dropped precipitously. He hacks at a ton of balls outside the zone and he almost never walks.

But wait, there’s more. Smith thinks Pudge isn’t enough…

Adding Rodriguez was clearly a big step for the Astros,

You must be used to taking REALLY small steps. I shall recommend you to the Ministry!

but they could go even further before the end of the week. There were rumors of a potential deal for Pedro Martinez on Tuesday night from Baseball Prospectus, but multiple sources are countering what Baseball Prospectus was reporting.

Pedro Martinez? The Pedro Martinez? No way!

That’s a shame, because Pedro Martinez might be exactly what the Astros need to reach the thick of the playoff race.

Quick recap: Pudge puts the Astros in the mix, Pedro puts them in the thick of it. I’m sure there’s a distinction there somewhere.

Think about it: Heading into the stretch last September, the Astros were within a long run of the Wild Card or an NL Central playoff bid.

Firstly, I don’t know what a “long run” means. But it sounds really far. Secondly, to say the Astros were “within a long run of the Wild Card” ignores the fact that the team won six in a row and 14 of 15 during a stretch that started in August and ended with a Carlos Zambrano no-hitter. Saying all they needed to do was get hot down the stretch ignores the fact that they were insanely hot for the better part of a month and no team can keep that up forever.

That followed a slow start that easily could have flushed Houston’s entire season.

So which was the fluke: the slow start or the nearly perfect stretch in August-September? You can guess what I think.

Add Pudge Rodriguez and a healthy Pedro Martinez (if he’s as healthy and locates as well as he did in the WBC), and the Astros might not fade out so quickly.

A healthy Pedro…that’s not much to ask for, is it? Just because he’s averaged less than 90 innings per season over the past three years and he’s coming off major surgery and he’s lost many miles per hour off his fastball and he’s 38 and has had a 4.74 ERA since 2006 and had his strikeout rate plummet and walk rate skyrocket last year… I mean, he’s still Pedro, right?

With Pedro possibly available at a bargain price — the pair might cost less than $5 million up front in total — why not give both a run?

Because neither deserve a run – not at that price, anyway, and not when cheaper options who could perform just as well are already in the system. Let’s face it. J.R. Towles sucked in his 171 PAs last year. But who could mean more to the franchise over the next three years – a 25-year old who has crushed pitching at every level of the minors or a 37 year old who has caught over 18,000 innings in the bigs and has been on a clear decline since 2006? And trust me, there are very few members in the Jose Capellan fan club. But at this stage in their careers, are they that far apart statistically? Since 2006, again, Pedro’s ERA is 4.74. Cappellan’s is 4.70 (in 99.67 IP). This isn’t to say that they are definitively equal (they’re not). But Cappellan is definitively younger and cheaper and is capable of pitching just as well and actually may give you 140+ innings.

Ed Wade clearly thinks the Astros are playoff contenders, and who are we to argue with the visionary that is Wade? But Astros fans and non-Astros-fans alike should be able to agree that Ivan Rodriguez, at this point in his career, doesn’t represent a giant step forward for anyone. Ditto for Pedro. Those guys were great, but the greatness has faded.

*Paul Moro contributed snark and statistics to this post.

I can’t speak for Mets fans everywhere and I’m not going to even try. There are far too many opinions and emotions, each to numerous degrees, for me to oversimplify it all. I can only speak for myself and that’s what I’m going to do. Because I need to get over it. The playoffs are starting and I’m a fan of the game first and foremost. My love for the New York Mets is secondary in comparison although I do forget that sometimes. So if I am going to be able to enjoy October – with or without Dane Cook (but hopefully without) – I need to get over most of the negatives that are going through my mind.

I went to three of the last four games at Shea. I was there on Thursday, Saturday, and yes, I was there yesterday. So let me explain everything in chronological order. I’ll write posts for each of the last three games for entertainment, therapy, and reminiscence.

I’ll begin with Thursday night’s game against the Cubs, which turned into my favorite Met game that I ever attended. And I warn you – this is a long one.

My seats were down at the field level. Section 103, box J, seats 3 and 4. It was the first time all year that I sat so close to the field. Before the first pitch, I was sitting alone in my seat (my brother would be coming later), trying to take it all in. The Mets were making their way to the outfield grass on the first base side, just beyond where the green met the infield dirt. First, it was rookie Daniel Murphy. Then journeyman Ramon Martinez, followed by Ryan Church, Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Delgado. I forgot how old I was and giddily watched them conduct their pre-game warm-ups right in front of me.

Then a group came and sat down in the box to my right. Cubs fans. A couple in the box to my left. More Cubs fans. And as I would soon find out, I was seated amidst what was possibly the most apathetic group of “Mets fans” the city had to offer. And those few that did express any emotion whatsoever simply berated the players for underachieving. Then I looked around the stadium as sprinkles of rain became visible in the lights above the upper deck. It wasn’t near full. The Mets were in a tight race for the playoffs. Four games left in the season. Four games left at Shea. And we couldn’t fill the stadium. I was, in all honesty, embarrassed, but for what I couldn’t explain. Were there so few Mets fans in New York? Were they unwilling to sit through some rain to cheer on their guys? Had the team pushed ticket prices so high that devotees couldn’t afford them? For whatever reason, we were at around 70% capacity.

But as these thoughts were passing through, Pedro Martinez took the mound. And while I cheered on as he threw his warm-ups, I knew we were in for a rough night. A lot of Met fans consider the Pedro Martinez signing to be an overall success. They say that Pedro brought a sense of “respectability” to the organization, and that thanks to him, other free agents were more willing to come play for the Mets. I’m not one of those people. Carlos Beltran did not become a Met because of Pedro Martinez. He came to Queens because that’s where the money was. And none of the other key players on the team signed as free agents. They were either drafted or acquired in a trade. What we got instead was one good year of Pedro out of the four-year contract. And it has been painful to watch his total decline. Read the rest of this entry »

Before the season started, Peter Gammons predicted the Mets were the team to beat in the NL East, “because the Mets may have the best four-man rotation in the National League East or perhaps the entire National League, period.”

Here was his reasoning:

Johan Santana is arguably the best pitcher in the game. Pedro Martinez has had a very encouraging spring, with Saturday’s outing against Washington more proof of his recovery. Pedro is not going to ever throw 95 mph again, but he is looser than he has been in years (he still doesn’t have to ice his shoulder), his command of four pitches is outstanding and he is so intelligent that he doesn’t have to throw harder than 88 mph to win. Oliver Perez is up in the 93-mph range with a very good slider.

Perhaps the most encouraging part of the mix for the Mets this spring has been John Maine. Two years ago, GM Omar Minaya, who stole Maine in the Kris Benson trade, predicted Maine would be a top-of-the-rotation starter. Two years of working with pitching coach Rick Peterson and Maine may be just that. The Indians faced him Wednesday night and thought he was the best pitcher they’ve seen all spring. Where he was essentially a one-pitch, 92-94 mph fastball pitcher, Maine has been throwing 94-96 this spring with an improving slider and changeup to go along with his ability to command the fastball on all four quadrants of the plate.

Until they know what’s going to happen with El Duque, who for now is still throwing no higher than the low 80s, the fifth spot is in flux. But a fifth starter is usually a work in progress, and remember this — without Santana or Pedro and with Maine a work in progress — the Mets starters last year led the NL in wins and quality starts. So with the Phillies pitching in some question and John Smoltz and Mike Hampton set to leave Florida with slight physical questions, there seems little doubt that the Mets will head north with the premier starting pitching in the National League East.

That evaluation seemed entirely reasonable at the time, but now one has to wonder what Gammons would have predicted if somebody told him that Martinez would alternate this season between injured and awful, that Maine would take a major step backwards and sit out the last month of the season with a bone spur, that El Duque would miss the entire season, and that Oliver Perez would start slowly.

I’m guessing he’d probably give the Mets zero chance of winning the division.

Just goes to show that even the best made plans sometimes go awry — and sometimes things still work out. Thank god for Mike Pelfrey, eh New York?

Let me start this post by saying that, at this juncture, with less than a month left in the regular season, I tend to throw all predictive stats out the window. With so little time left, very close divisional races such as the ones we still have in the AL Central, NL East, and NL West, could easily be decided on anomalous occurrences. Orlando Cabrera could far surpass career norms and OPS over 1.000 in September, leading the White Sox into the post season. Newly acquired Matt Stairs could start jacking home runs for the Phillies and allow them to overtake the Mets for the second year in a row. And both Brandon Webb and Danny Haren could completely implode over the final few weeks, and the Dodgers could be crowned division champs.

Are any of these specific events likely to occur? Probably not. But every year, instances akin to these do happen and factor heavily into the playoff picture. The unlikely is expected.

So this is not a post where I am going to predict how the NL East is going to play out in the month of September. Frankly, I think it’s a waste of time even trying to do so. But I do want to assess the current situation, and lay out the things we should be looking at over these final 22 games, especially since the Mets and Phils are locking horns for the last time this year in a three-game series starting tonight.

Can They Keep It Up?

METS: I shake my head a bit at the recent chatter regarding whether or not Carlos Delgado is an MVP candidate. For one, he doesn’t deserve it, and two, it’s unbelievable that I even have to argue against it considering where he was just a couple of months ago. As of the morning of June 26th, Delgado had a .229 BA, .306 OBP, and most surprising of all, a .396 SLG. That’s an OPS barely above .700 for a guy with a career OPS of .925. But during the game on the 26th against the Yankees, Delgado exploded for 2 home runs and a team record 9 RBIs. And since then, his line has been a very impressive .298/.391/.627. To me, it’s the difference in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s most encouraging. And surprising based on his performance during the first 3 months of the season.

PHILLIES: One area of the Phillies that I completely underestimated going into the season was their pitching. As a team, they’ve allowed  only 4.17 runs per game, which is top-three in the National League – and they’re doing it in a hitter’s park. But one guy who was not having much success for the better part of the season was Brett Myers. Through his first 17 starts, Myers was awful. He had an ERA of 5.84, had a worse K-rate (7.9/9) and a walk rate (3.9/9) than his career norms, and an incredibly high home run rate (2.12/9) as well. Then the Phillies did something a bit surprising – they optioned him to the minors in early July, and Myers agreed. And since his return to the bigs on July 23rd, Myers has been outstanding, especially in his past five starts. The Ks are back, the walks and homeruns have all but disappeared, and his ERA has reflected these positive changes (1.43 over 37 2/3 IP). I try to never put too much stock in so few innings, but that 37 2/3 IP are also about as many innings as the Phillies are going to get out of any starting pitcher from this point forth any way. So who says he can’t finish strong too? Myers takes the mound tonight against Mike Pelfrey in the series opener.

Can They Turn It Around?

METS: Pedro Martinez is a totally different pitcher these days, and the change hasn’t  been positive. When he arrived in Flushing back in 2005, he dominated. The following season, he walked a few more hitters and gave up more home runs. It was also during the 2006 campaign that the injuries began. First, it was a hip injury. Then it was his right calf. Then his left calf was torn. Finally, a torn rotator cuff. Season over. There was still some optimism in 2007 when Pedro returned. Despite a serious drop in velocity (couldn’t hit 90 mph any more), the strikeouts were still there, and the walks remained manageable. Yet, even though he had a 2.57 ERA in the five starts he made last year, his line drive % was telling a different story. Hitters were on him, evidenced by the .284 BAA. Predictably, Pedro missed significant time in 2008 as well. When he returned in June, his velocity was higher than last year (88-91mph), but the line drive % remained high – only this time, the strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he’s been giving up homeruns at a career high rate. As of this writing, his ERA is 5.07 and it’s no fluke. Can Pedro stay healthy and keep the ball down? Pedro is scheduled to get the ball on Saturday.

PHILLES: In 2007, the Phils averaged a whopping 5.51 runs scored per game. This year, they’re at 4.83, which is still good, but is also a noticeable drop. From here in New York, it seems that the media and fans are mostly attributing the decrease in production to Jimmy Rollins. But the bigger problem has been with Ryan Howard. His BA, OBP, and SLG have all decreased quite a bit for two consecutive seasons now. His sufficient HR (39) and RBI (119) numbers appear to be masking his .325 OBP. And although a .502 SLG is nothing to scoff at, it is a cause for concern when he had a .584 last year and .659 the season before that. Add it all together and his adjusted OPS is a 109 – which is a bit low for a first baseman, and especially so for a guy with Howard’s reputation. Unless he is hiding an injury, I don’t think that this is a decline just yet. He could very realistically go berserk in September.

Will They Get Noticed?

METS: I’m continually amazed at how little appreciation Carlos Beltran receives from Mets fans. Perhaps some false expectations were created by his career year in 2006 when he crushed 41 home runs in his second season in a Mets uniform. Or perhaps it’s because he’s been put into the clean-up spot 108 times this year and we’ve come to expect more power from that position in the batting order. Beltran may never hit 40 dingers again, but here’s what you can count on him for – one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game with good pop, a very strong ability to get on base and plus speed. As viewers, it’s easy to be impressed by diving catches and leaping grabs at the wall. They guys who are underappreciated are those who are so good they get to the ball fast enough so they don’t have to dive. Beltran’s one of those guys. And he’s also one of those guys who can appear to be able to win games all by himself. We haven’t seen that Beltran yet in 2008.

PHILLIES: When most people think of the Phillies lineup, the names that immediately come to mind are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell. But Jayson Werth is the guy who has impressed me most so far this year. This is a gentleman that walks, is slugging over .500, manages to steal bases without getting caught, and still somehow finds a way to give a stray badger shelter below his lower lip. Multi-tasking. Werth hasn’t been great against righties (.790 OPS) but absolutely kills lefties (1.051 OPS and 1 HR every 8.87 ABs). If he could get that OPS vs. righties up just a bit, he’d really be something pretty special.

I’ve got about an hour until game time, so I’ve gotta go on my way. Enjoy the series, UmpBumpers!

Step right up, get your Saturday afternoon reading right here!

First, Baseball Prospectus Unfiltered has a must-read interview with Chili Davis on being the only Yankee to get a hit—and a home run, at that—in Pedro Martinez’s famous, 17-strikeout game in Yankee stadium from 1999.

Home Run Derby has the sad-hilarious (sadlarious?) pictures of some of the worst seats in America’s major league ballparks.

Squawking Baseball takes Buzz Bissinger to task for some inopportune words about baseball salaries.

Speaking of money, the Biz of Baseball links to a report that Harold Reynolds and Hazel Mae, formerly of NESN, will be joining the new MLB Network. I have to wonder if he will inappropriately hug her.

Joe Posnanski has a nice, long, director’s cut of a story he wrote about A’s reliever Brad Ziegler.

Sox Addict has ESPN leaving single, red socks in LA laundromats.

FireNedCollettiNow is discouraged by Manny’s inaugural GDIP. Given the name of the blog, I’m shocked, shocked.

And last week, while in North Carolina, I penned my weekly column for the Boston Metro about the Angels and their deceptively craptastic offense. Of course, later that same day, they acquired Mark Teixeira. Oops.