Averaging 4.84 runs scored per game, the Pittsburgh Pirates offense has been better than what many had expected going into 2008. In fact, their starting OF has been stellar, averaging an adjusted OPS of 138, which is tops in MLB*. You read that correctly. You could easily make the argument that the 2008 Pittsburgh Pirates have the best offensive outfield in Major League Baseball. I’m going to give you a second to let that sink in.

That’s better than Boston (Manny-Ellsbury-Drew = 127), St. Louis (Schumaker-Ankiel-Ludwick = 126), White Sox (Quentin-Swisher-Dye = 129), and even Detroit (Thames-Granderson-Maggs = 136).

Consisting of Jason Bay, Nate McLouth and Xavier Nady, each member of this Pittsburgh outfield trio have OBPs north of .350 and slug at least .510.

Which is why it’s really too bad that the Pirates are still pretty far out in the playoff hunt, 11.5 games behind the Cubs for the division lead. And the long-term outlook for the Bucs would be improved if they broke up their outfield in preparation for 2009 and beyond.

With all three players performing at such a high level, any of them should interest teams looking for an offensive boost for the stretch run. Xavier Nady is the one who will most likely get dealt, which makes sense. He’s a 29-year old in the last year of his contract. Based on his current performance this season, he’s going to get quite the raise from his $3.35MM salary. In addition, with a very strong .284/.387/.531 line and a pretty budget friendly contract ($5.75MM in ‘08, $7.5MM in ‘09), Jason Bay will most likely be among the top names we’ll be hearing about as we approach the trade deadline. There’s been word that Pittsburgh intends on keeping Bay for now, and if this is their sincere intent, then I think they’re making a mistake. Not only will the Pirates still be near the basement in 2009 with or without him, this is the perfect sell-high moment. With one more year left on his contract, teams would be more inclined to make an offer, much like the Rangers were able to do last year with Mark Teixeira.

The only one that the Pirates ought to keep for 2009 is McLouth and they ought to ink him to a long-term contract extension very soon (arbitration eligible at the end of the year), despite the fact that Pittsburgh management seems very wary of committing financially to players over the long haul. Although many small market teams have been quick to lock up their young talent in recent months, the Pirates have been late to that party. In fact, the only player on the roster with a guaranteed Major League contract two seasons from now (in 2010) is Ian Snell. To be fair, they haven’t exactly had the kind of young talent that’s really worth locking up, but I think McLouth’s bat is worth the risk.

And if Bay and/or Nady can be dealt, the Bucs have a pretty good prospect waiting in the wings named Andrew McCutchen. Currently playing for AAA-Indianapolis, McCutchen is a five-tool centerfielder whose skills at the position should allow the team to move McLouth over to left (Nate currently sports a pretty ugly .866 RZR in center). But since he’s only 21 years old, I’d understand it if the Pirates waited just a bit longer to call him up.

Now if they could only figure out this “pitching” thing, they’d be going somewhere…

*One caveat so that Rangers fans won’t jump me - on those days when Texas goes with the trio of Milton Bradley-Josh Hamilton-David Murphy, they’re better (OPS-Plus of 142). But Bradley’s mostly a DH these days (48 games at DH, 17 in OF).

- What They Need Index -

Yesterday, the Pittsburgh Pirates continued their attempts to wash themselves clean of former GM Dave Littlefield’s reign of terror by releasing pitcher Matt Morris, who the Bucs acquired in early August last season in a trade with the San Francisco Giants. A month after the deal, Littlefield was fired. And now Morris follows suit.

We here at UmpBump mocked the deal for many reasons, including (but not limited to):

1. The Pirates were on the hook for a prorated portion of Morris’ 2007 salary of $9.5M PLUS his 2008 salary of an additional $9.5M. Littlefield pulled the trigger without having San Francisco assume any financial obligations.
2. It actually made Brian Sabean look like a decent General Manager, when the vast majority of the Giants GM’s moves show otherwise.
3. Pittsburgh was going nowhere in 2007. No one - especially not Matt Morris - was going to change that.
4. The deal absolutely reeked of a GM in panic mode. Littlefield was trying desperately to save his own job and didn’t care about the organization’s future in the slightest.

So it really came as no surprise that Morris bombed in Pittsburgh. He made 16 starts for the Bucs, during which he compiled a 3-8 record to go along with a 7.04 ERA. I kind of feel badly for Morris since he’s kind of a victim of circumstance. But then I remember that he’ll still receive his paycheck until the end of the year. So, he’s OK. Pirates fans? Not so sure I can say the same for them. They have a genuine right to be pissed.

The Blue Jays debuted their throwback uniforms last night, as they plan to do for every Friday home game this season. Behold:

They look a bit silly, but isn’t that just part of the fun? The Royals have also brought their powder blues back (though only from the waist up). Last year, the Padres busted out their old all-yellow duds. What other teams could bring back some kickass vintage duds? Let’s look at the contenders:

Read the rest of this entry »

ASTROS - pitching depth.
Besides Oswalt, Houston’s rotation currently features Woody Williams, Brandon Backe, Wandy Rodgriguez and Felipe Paulino. That’s a lot of finger crossing.

The ‘Stros have Jose Valverde closing games. And that’s awesome. But other than Valverde, the bullpen offers little beyond Doug Brocail. Geoff Geary and Oscar Villarreal do not inspire confidence.

It’s easy to point to the bevy of all-star names in Houston’s lineup and think that the team’s offense might make up for it’s crappy pitching, but players like Tejada and Berkman are past their primes, while Kaz Matsui is overrated.

Verdict: The Astros need one more top of the rotation starter and some middle relief help.

CARDINALS - starting pitcher.
Go to the ESPN.com stats page. Check out the NL batting stats. The top 75 players from 2007 include just one Cardinal — Albert Pujols. That’s gotta change in 2008. How is that going to change? Three things have to happen. 1. Troy Glaus has to stay healthy. 2. Rick Ankiel has to live up to the Babe Ruth comparisons and 3. Chris Duncan has step up his game. If all three of those guys hit, and Pujols continues to be Pujols, the Cardinals will be dangerous.

Of course, those are a lot of maybes. And even if all of those things happen, that still doesn’t change the fact that St. Louis’ starting staff includes Anthony Reyes and Braden Looper.

Verdict: The Cardinals need one more top of the line starting pitcher. And a lot of luck.

BREWERS - steroids
This offseason, Milwaukee acquired Guillermo Mota, Eric Gagne and Mike Cameron. They already had Derrick Turnbow. That’s three relievers who were mentioned in the Mitchell Report, plus one CF who will start the season suspended. How do they sleep at night?

Verdict: The Brewers need to stay one step ahead of the drug testers.

REDS - Jay Bruce
Rumors abound that the Reds are considering trading their entire farm system — including OF prospect Jay Bruce — for Baltimore ace Erik Bedard. This would give Cincinnati a scary rotation led by Bedard and Aaron Harang. But it wouldn’t solve all of the team’s problems.

Last season, David Ross cought 107 games for the Reds. His OBP was .271. So there’s that.

Also, Ryan Freel is penciled in as the team’s starting CF, now that Josh Hamilton has been dealt. But what happens when Ken Griffey Jr. gets hurt? The Reds need Bruce to get major league ready quick, allowing Freel to serve as a super-sub and giving the team a little more depth and power. If Bruce pulls a Ryan Braun and shows up swinging, the Reds could be contenders, even without Bedard. (Of course, nobody in history has ever pulled a Ryan Braun to the extent that Ryan Braun pulled a Ryan Braun in 2007. But I digress.)

Verdict: The Reds need to keep Jay Bruce.

CUBS - an ace.
Outside of the continuing development of CF Felix Pie, the Cubs’s question marks are all on the pitching side. A handful of relievers, including Kerry Wood, will battle it out to be this season’s closer. Meanwhile, Jason Marquis will attempt to return to form after 2007’s late season collapse.

Chicago has a few good starting pitchers, like Rich Hill, Carlos Zambrano and Ted Lilly. But the team really needs at least one of those guys to step up and pitch like an ace.

Verdict: What the Cubs really need is for Carlos Zambrano to cut down on his walks.

PIRATES - a miracle.

Strengths: ummmmm…
Weaknesses: oy!
Verdict: sigh.

This may not be a game everyone is interested in playing, but let’s face it: the World Series is over, the Red Sox won, and readers of this particular blog do not need further discussion to know how glorious and awesome the Red Sox are.

Now it is time to focus on the offseason and next year, and Item 1 on the agenda is A-Rod, thanks to the stunt he and Boras pulled last, announcing his opt out during game four of the World Series.

So let’s go ahead and start handicapping where A-Rod might end up…

3-1 New York Mets

Omar Minaya and the Mets are the reigning kings of offering massive, mindblowingly large contracts to whoever are the biggest names on the market at the time - just think back to Carlos Beltran, Pedro Martinez, and Carlos Delgado. Not only can the Mets definitely afford A-Rod already, but they are getting a new stadium and lots of new revenue in 2009. Plus, they’ve shown interest in A-Rod several times in the past, and you know that Minaya is going to want to do something big this offseason to appease the fans and the back pages after the team’s historically epic collapse down the stretch.

5-1: Anaheim Angels of Anaheim

Arte Moreno has shown repeatedly that he is the kind of crazy individual owner that will throw caution to the winds and order the signing of a big-name star to a ridiculous contract that a team under corporate ownership would be less likely to offer. He is much the same sort of gunslinging cowboy owner Tom Hicks was when he signed A-Rod to his last contract in Texas, before Hicks was reined in by his investment partners. Angels attendance and revenue growth have both been phenomenal in recent years, so they can definitely afford A-Rod, and with the way they use their players as interchangable parts, they can easily shuffle people around to make room at third base.

7-1: Boston Red Sox

Flush with even more cash from their World Series victory and facing a possible hole at third base with the free agency of Mike Lowell, it would be easy to imagine the Red Sox going after A-Rod. Although this would definitely anger many Sox fans, a certain subsection of Red Sox Nation has been crying out for the Sox to get A-Rod all season long, and Theo has shown in the past that he is willing to ignore the desires of the fans and go get long-running obsessions like Drew and Lugo. Considering how close the Sox came to acquiring A-Rod in 2004, it would be folly to assume that that option is not in Theo’s mind right now. I still think we are more likely to see Lowell manning the hot corner in Fenway next year, but if he dithers and doesn’t sign pretty much the first contract offer made to him, it might well be A-Rod instead.

9-1 Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are suddenly flush with cash the past few years, having cleverly marketed and leveraged their new ballpark, and owner Mike Illitch has shown that he is not at all afraid to take huge gambles and blow massive amounts of that cash on players nobody else is even trying to sign, such as Magglio Ordonez and his injured knee, or Ivan Rodriguez and his suspect back. Both of those deals worked out rather nicely for Illitch, so if for some reason all the other teams hesitate too long to sign A-Rod due to excessive contract demands or character questions, don’t be surprised if Illitch swoops in and make A-Rod a ridiculous offer even he can’t refuse.

11-1: San Francisco Giants

With Barry Bonds getting the boot, the Giants may well be looking for a new megastar to keep butts in the seats at Pac Bell, er, SBC, er Whatever-it’s-called-now Park. Their overpaying for Barry Zito last year certainly suggests that they are thinking along those kinds of lines. Plus, San Francisco fans have already proven that they are more than willing to embrace a superstar that the rest of the nation hates.

13-1: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies are not the first name that usually gets mentioned when people talk about where A-Rod might end up, and he is certainly not the kind of player that you would expect to be popular with the Philadelphia fans, but the Phillies have been on the edge of something big for years now and have been looking for something to get them over the hump, so Philadelphia might actually be the team who would be helped the most by adding A-Rod. The Phillies can definitely afford A-Rod, especially with their still-new stadium and several millions in contracts coming off the books over the next two years (including the $7 million they were still paying to Jim Thome this past season), and they don’t have a strong incumbent at third base (as Wes Helms could easily be shunted to the bench). Plus, as a baseball fan, it would kind of be exciting to see A-Rod added to an infield that already has 3 MVP types in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Jimmy Rollins, creating what would indisputably be the greatest infield quartet ever assembled.

15-1: Houston Astros

Faced with a weak NL Central there for the taking and a gaping hole at third base, the Astros are another team which could really be helped immediately by adding A-Rod. They’ve already shown a willingness to drop ridiculous dollars on big-name star power with their pioneering the whole pro-rated Clemens contract thing, and Drayton McClane is the kind of owner with the actual authority to wake up on the other side of the bed tomorrow morning, decide he wants A-Rod, and make it happen. Plus it’s Texas, and Texans like big things.

17-1: New York Yankees

Common sense says that despite their repeated sworn statements that they would not pursue A-Rod if he opted out, the Yankees are the team that most can afford A-Rod, and perhaps the team that most desperately needs him, given their current state of disarray, so they should therefore eat some crow and humbly go back to the table with Boras. But I don’t think this is going to happen, because guys like Randy Levine and Hank Steinbrenner strike me as a men possessed of large amounts of pride, and not particularly excessive amounts of common sense.

20-1: Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers always get mentioned, because we know they can afford A-Rod if they really want to, and plus, they have a huge hole at third base right now. But we have to remember that after the whole JD Drew opt-out thing, Ned Colletti has a huge hate-on for Scott Boras, to the point where he refused to talk to Boras for several months and foolishly didn’t offer Greg Maddux arbitration (thereby losing free draft picks), just because Maddux was a Boras client. Although Colletti has gotten over the worst of his hatred at this point, he is unlikely to have much patience for Boras’s negotiating tactics unless he gets a direct order from Frank McCourt or something.

25-1: Chicago Cubs

The Cubs showed last offseason that they are willing to drop big bucks on free agents. The don’t really have a need at third base, but shortstop has been a black hole for sometime now, so they could try to entice A-Rod with the chance to move back to the premier defensive position on the diamond. That said, one get’s the feeling that the Cubs blew their wad on Soriano last year and especially with the sale of the team getting a lot closer now, they are less likely to give Hendry the free reign to make such a huge financial commitment

30-1 or higher: Baltimore Orioles, Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Pittsburgh Pirates

Nobody saw the Texas Rangers coming last time, so these four teams are my dark horse candidates this time around. The Orioles have always shown a propensity to make sporatic, unpredictable, and irrational plunges into the free agent market, but what they really need is pitching. The Washington Nationals don’t seem to be getting mentioned much, but they are getting a new stadium in a few years, and might see A-Rod as the perfect guy to have as their centerpiece going into their new digs. The White Sox could probably afford A-Rod, although Kenny Williams has not shown much of a tendency to go after guys like this in the past. I’m throwing the Pirates in here, because the Pirates as an organization are certifiably bat-shit crazy. Nobody has been able to understand what they are doing for the past 15 years, and nobody can ever predict what they are going to do next.