After a fantastic honeymoon in Fiji, where we were cut off from television, internet, and all other forms of media other than the Fiji Times (which doesn’t publish baseball standings), the blushing bride and I returned stateside yesterday. We landed at LAX around 4 p.m. to discover 1. The Phillies were still alive! 2. They were scheduled to play the Dodgers in the NLCS and the first game was to start in an hour! 3. We’d miss the first half of the game traveling from L.A. to Tucson!

What to do? Our flight was oversold, so we volunteered to take the next flight. That gave us time to watch the game in the airport bar, and we scored free roundtrip flight vouchers to boot.

You might be wondering, “what kind of a baseball fan schedules his honeymoon during the playoffs?” But consider: 1. The last thing anybody wants to do after surviving his or her wedding is return to work on Monday. 2. Going to Fiji in the spring and missing the annual spring training baseball weekend with the guys was not an option. (Neither was missing the holidays.) 3. Jimmy Rollins has already predicted a Phillies-Yankees World Series, so I knew the Phils would still be alive when I returned.

Anyways, I’m back. But being away from baseball for over a week and then returning in the middle of October is a bit of a weird experience. Here are some observations from a guy who is jumping into the 2009 playoffs midstream:

1. I can’t believe that in the 1.5 weeks I was gone, the Phils’ bullpen situation seems to have actually gotten murkier. Which is not to say it’s gotten worse. Just less certain. Last postseason, the Phils went almost exclusively with a bullpen rotation of Romero, Madson, Lidge. This postseason Manuel is just making it up as he goes along. He is really grasping at straws, and his lack of a plan is making all us Philly fans a little edgy.

2. When was the last time Manny got a haircut? Did Joe Torre just stop caring about that?

3. What is up with the east coast? Did you guys even have a summer this year? It’s snowing today in Boston and the weather forecast for the Yankees-Angels series is horrid. Is this a global warming thing or what?

4. Vicente Padilla really is an asshole. Don’t you think?

5. When I said that Suz and I got to watch the Phillies-Dodgers game in the airport, I meant we got to watch all but the final three outs. We had to board the plane before the game ended. Never in my wildest dreams did I think that a nine inning game played between two teams not named the Red Sox or Yankees could last more than four hours. But this game started at 5:07 and was still going when we boarded our plane at 9:20. I know it didn’t help that Manuel used pretty much his entire bullpen. But it really doesn’t help that commercial breaks during the playoffs are twice as long as those during the regular season. Can we do something about this?

6. Chase Utley is in a funk. He’s made two throwing errors in two games and he hasn’t had an extra-basehit in the NLCS. Granted, it’s only two games. But he’s got this look on his face like something isn’t right. With any other player, I’d chalk it up to a slump or nerves. But with Utley, anytime he’s not playing well I worry he’s hurt. Because, frankly, he almost never struggles and when he does we almost always find out after the fact that he was playing with a broken this or a torn that. It’s a tribute to Utley that we worry for his health whenever he turns in anything less than a Hall of Fame performance.

7. So let me get this straight: While I was gone there was a kid in a balloon and for a whole day people stopped what they were doing to watch this kid float away, only to find out later the kid wasn’t actually in the balloon but was instead hiding in the attic? And we still don’t have healthcare reform? And Rush Limbaugh can’t buy a portion of an NFL team, but he can judge the Miss America pageant? Is that everything? Am I caught up?

8. I bet the Red Sox faithful really wishes Theo would have shelled out the cash for Teixeira. His decision to sign with New York could haunt Boston for years to come. This winter, the pressure to sign Matt Holliday is going to be enormous. Sarah is already starting to obsess over him. And not just because she thinks he’s hot.

9. Tsunami warnings make me glad to live in the desert.

So the playoffs are under way and we were having so much fun in Tucson that we forgot to do our playoff predictions. Well, never fear dear readers, this might be late, but it’s here:

Sarah’s Picks:
ALDS: Red Sox over Angels in 4, Yankees over Twins in 3
ALCS: Red Sox over Yankees in 7 games
NLDS: Phillies over Rockies in 4, Dodgers over Cardinals in 5
NLCS: Dodgers over Phillies in 6
World Series: Red Sox over Dodgers in 6

Paul’’s Picks:
ALDS: Red Sox over Angels in 4, Yankees over Twins in 4
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox in 7 games
NLDS: Phillies over Rockies in 4, Cardinals over Dodgers in 5
NLCS: Phillies over Cardinals in 6
World Series: Yankees over Phillies in 6

Alejandro’s Picks:
ALDS: Red Sox over Angels in 5, Yankees over Twins in 5
ALCS: Yankees over Red Sox in 7 games
NLDS: Phillies over Rockies in 5, Cardinals over Dodgers in 5
NLCS: Cardinals over Phillies in 7
World Series: Cardinals over Yankees in 7

Zvee’s Picks:
ALDS: Phils over Rocks (3-1)
ALCDS: Yanks over Twins (3-0)
NLDS: Cards over Dodgers (3-2)
ALDS: Angels over Sox (3-2)
NCLS: Cards over Phils (4-2)
ALCS: Yanks over Angels (4-1)
World Series: Cards over Yanks (4-2)

Coley’s picks:

Now, 8=2. Or 9=2. Or 2+2=5. Whatever. The point is, there are only two teams left: the NL Champion Philadelphia Phillies and the AL Champion Tampa Bay Rays. Who do you think will win the World Series?

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TBS is showing a re-run of the Steve Harvey Show. I don’t even know what that is. My boyfriend had to spell it for me.

WHERE IS MY BASEBALL? WHERE IS MY BECKETT? WHERE IS TROPICANA FIELD?

Right about now, those mowhawked, blue-haired, cowbell-ringin’ Rays fans are standing and screaming, “NOT IN OUR HOUSE, MUTHAF*CKAS!”

Right about now, the Red Sox are slappin’ some extra pine tar on their helmets and spittin’ their chaw on the dugout steps.

But I am watching a man with a mustache crack jokes to a laugh track due to “technical difficulties.”

“Please stand by,” they’re telling me.  And I’m telling them, “THERE’S ONLY ONE OCTOBER, A**HOLES!”

Mr. Hyde receives counsel from Jason Varitek and John Farrell

The big game is less than an hour away and the big question is, undoubtedly: which Josh Beckett will show up tonight?

As this NYT article points out, his fastball velocity is dangerously down:

His fastball averaged 93.9 miles an hour in 2008, but it decreased to 92.4 against the Angels and just 91.1 against the Rays, according to the Inside Edge scouting service. (In three postseason starts last year, he averaged 95.3.)

And as Tony Massarotti noted, putting his finger right on the crux of the issue after Beckett’s Game 2 start, this is making him entirely too hittable:

The most disturbing statistic from this game was that Beckett threw 93 pitches and managed just four swings-and-misses, only one of them coming on a fastball.

Let’s say that again.

Beckett threw 93 pitches and got one fastball by a Tampa hitter – a swinging strike by B.J. Upton in the first inning. Every other fastball was either put in play or fouled off.

The other swings-and-misses? Two were on curveballs, one on a cutter. And this was against a Tampa team that struck 1,224 times during the regular season, more than any AL club but the Oakland A’s (1,226).

And keep in mind that the A’s have Jack Cust.

Whether Beckett wants to admit publicly that he’s hurting or not, the radar gun doesn’t lie. Well, sometimes it does…but that’s not the point. The box score doesn’t lie, and last time the Rays managed 9 hits–three of them leaving the ballpark–and 8 runs off of Beckett in four and a third. Though he has struggled to notch first-pitch strikes this postseason (48% of batters, according to the same NYT article), he only walked 1 Ray last time out, while striking out 5. (He walked 4 and struck out 6 against the Angels, and also gave up 9 hits, including two longballs.)

Tonight, Beckett’s first challenge will be to keep the ball inside the ballpark. So far this postseason, he’s given up 5 homers in 9 and a third innings. A home run every other inning? That just won’t do.

The fate of the Rays if Dr. Beckett shows up

His second challenge will be to keep the ball close to, if not actually inside, the strike zone–especially on the first pitch. Throwing the first pitch for a strike will allow him to rely more on his breaking stuff, which he’ll have to do since he clearly can’t blow the heater by these Rays. I say “close to” the strike zone since everything “in” the zone seems to end up soaring into the stands or ricocheting around the outfield.

(Yes, these are basics–but if their offense has caught fire, that’s all Boston needs.)

His third challenge will be beating himself. Look, a big 28-year old Texan used to throwing 95 with movement just isn’t a finesse kind of guy. When he’s behind in the count–heck, when he’s ahead in the count and smelling blood in the water–he’ll want to reach back for the gas. But right now, the tank’s empty. He won’t like it, and he hasn’t had time to learn it, but until that muscle heals he’ll just have to throw something else.

So tonight, Josh Beckett, the Boston Red Sox, and nervous Fenway Faithful everywhere are all hoping the same thing: please, hardball gods, let Jason Varitek have a plan.

We may only have another day to enjoy this, Sox fans, since Josh Beckett and his craptastic oblique will be taking the mound for Boston tomorrow and who knows what will happen. To get the maximum enjoyment out of this moment—and I am still doing secret little cha-cha moves up and down the corridors at work when I think no one can see me—here’s a roundup of links:

Yahoo’s Jeff Passan goes for goosebumps and raises the specter of Aaron Bleepin’ Boone.

Sox&Dawgs never gave up. No, really! (I sort of gave up, but gave up while still firmly believing that if they only put their freakin’ minds to it, they could come back. If that makes sense.)

Center Field is glad the Sox stuck it to the TBS broadcast crew, who did indeed start talking about the Rays-Phillies World Series before the game was truly ovah. (Thanks, announcerboys! A little reverse-jinx action never hurts.) And as we know, it ain’t ovah ’til the Big Papi swings.

Kevin McNamara homes in on the Crisp at-bat.

Fenway West has the wooooo-creepy numerology take.

Red Sox Monster highlights Curt Schilling’s (really awful) first pitch — the only pitch he threw from the mound in Fenway all year. Which, yes, means it cost 8 million dollars. But clearly it was worth it for a little bit o’ that bloody sock karma, right?

Joy of Sox notes that after falling behind 7-0 and intentionally walking Carlos Pena, the Red Sox only had a 0.6 chance of winning. If you turn the chart upside down, it looks sort of like the Dow.

As a bonus to her great recap, Amalie Benjamin has a video detailing the superstitious behavior of some Sox players during the final innings.

King Kaufman assails the fans who left early. Shame!

Tony Massarotti says “Wow.” And has a kind of creepy quote from Beckett: “Tomorrow. Tomorrow, tomorrow, tomorrow.” But before you get all Macbethian like I did, he’s just clarifying when he’ll talk to reporters.

Alex Speier reports that even with the hot, swampy breath of defeat steaming the backs of their grimy necks, the Red Sox dugout thrummed not with doubts, but with the steely resolve of a determined and indefatigable mantra: “Let’s win every pitch.”

Joe Posnanski calls it something out of a kid’s dream. Yes: yes. A wild, improbable, ridiculous dream! Why did we become prematurely middle-aged cynical farts who fret about the stock market and pop Prilosec before eating pizza? NO! Today my hair is shiny. My abs are like my college abs. I could eat a barrelful of chili-cheese fries smothered in jalepenos and buffalo sauce and wash it down with cheap tequila and not feel even the slightest singe along my esophagus. When I woke up this morning, I didn’t even need coffee! i just bounded out of bed, tingling with La  Belle Victoire. (But i did have some coffee anyway, just in case.) Maybe October comebacks are what Ponce de Leon was looking for!

I’ve been wanting to write about the playoffs, but I’m a little overstimulated by the prospect of a Phillies-Rays World Series. So I’m just going to throw some thoughts against the virtual wall and see what sticks.

• Last night, after the Rays emphatic victory over the Sox, Peter Gammons asked Tampa left fielder Carl Crawford how he felt about the win. And Crawford went through the usual scripted response, ending with something like, “and hopefully we can win one more and play in the World Series.” The look on his face when he said the words “World Series” was priceless — like he never said it out loud before. He was giggling.
• Inquirer columnist Bob Ford was wrong, and he’s not afraid to admit it. He says he shouldn’t have bashed Pat Gillick for signing Joe Blanton, Scott Eyre and Matt Stairs. Who’s going to be the next columnist to apologize? How about you, Jim Salisbury?
• Before this season started, whenever I would talk about the Rays’ loaded farm system, someone would remind me about Boston’s glut of young talent, most notably Jed Lowrie, Clay Buchholz and Jacoby Ellsbury, and about New York’s young guns Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy, as well as Robinson Cano and Melky Cabrera. But all of a sudden Buchholz is unable to pitch with men on base and Ellsbury’s a shadow of his 2007 playoff self, while Hughes and Kennedy are constantly hurt or getting shelled. Cano, for his part, got off to a terrible start in 2008 and didn’t improve defensively, while Cabrera got demoted. I’m not saying that Boston or New York should give up on any of these guys. But if you’re a Yankees or Red Sox fan, and you’re watching the Rays kick ass this week, it’s probably hard to feel excited about your team’s youth movement.
• Bad sign for the Dodgers: Scott Boras is already talking about Manny Ramirez’s free agent negotiations.

I noticed a subtlety in Jerry Crasnick’s write-up of last night’s absolutely inSANE game between the Red Sox and Rays—Game 2, in which the Rays tied the series 1-1 after pulling off a walk-off win in the 11th against Mike Timlin. (Why does Terry Francona bring in Timlin in extra innings anymore?? As soon as he comes in, I just know the game is over. I just know it. And the frat guys who live upstairs know it. And the waitress at Kelly’s Diner on the corner knows it. That guy from Sullivan Tire knows it. Mayor Menino knows it. My dog knows it. And, in fact, I suspect Mike Timlin knows it. Because all across New England, EVERYONE KNOWS THE GAME IS OVER WHEN MIKE TIMLIN COMES IN. I know he’s a lovely human being, and I know Terry Francona wants to show faith in his players, but come on. He’s shot. It’s over. Hand the ball to someone else. ANYONE ELSE. Even Paul Byrd! Even Tim Wakefield! At least with Wake, you have a 50-50 chance the pitch could float in for a strike.)

Writes Crasnick:

J.D. Drew, who had been plunked on his throwing shoulder by a 95 mph Grant Balfour fastball in the series opener, uncorked a weak throw up the third base line, and Perez scored easily to send the Rays into a celebratory frenzy.

“As soon as I drew my arm back to throw and follow through, I got that good charley horse from where I got drilled in the shoulder last night,” Drew said. “I didn’t have the best grip on the ball, so it kind of sailed a little bit to the right. I knew I had to be perfect. And when I released it, I knew it wasn’t.”

Drew normally has an enviable throwing arm, but the ball bounced twice on its way in. Still, Drew’s explanation can’t help but contrast starkly with this quote from Josh Beckett:

Beckett obliged reporters and answered questions at his locker after the game, but he was cryptic and tight-lipped about his performance and his health status. While the oblique injury appears to have transformed him from John Smoltz version 2.0 to Mr. Rocked-tober, he’s not about to use health problems as an excuse. And he still sounds like a guy who plans to pitch when his turn in the rotation comes around again in Game 6.

“I’m fine,” Beckett said at least four times during a two-minute interview. “It’s just frustrating when your team scores eight runs and you can’t win the [bleeping] game.”

I dunno, JD. Beckett’s badassery sounds pretty, well, badass, compared to your “explanation.” And Dustin MVPedroia played last October with a cracked hamate and we didn’t even know about it until later. And yet you’re blaming your weak-ass two-hopper on an HBP? That’s a thing that makes me go “hmm.”

But here, in the Boston Globe, is this conflicting report: “Drew didn’t make any excuses and didn’t lean on a recurring back problem or the throwing shoulder that got drilled by Grant Balfour in Game 1.”

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.