And as you may have heard, there is only one October. There is also only one postseason, and unless we are sorely mistaken, the Fall Classic is equally singular. And folks, it starts today. Thus, in today’s Boston Metro column, I (naturally) pick the Red Sox to win the 2007 World Series.

I had originally set out to do the kind of point-by-point comparison I’d done before: Rox versus Sox in the various categories of pitching, defense, baserunning, and offense. But I was stymied at every turn once I tried to get beyond the barest of bones. The NL and the AL have so diverged, it’s hard to make any meaningful comparisons between them with traditional stats. And when you’re also trying to take into account the park factor with Coors Field and Fenway Park, well, it’s was an exercise in futility.

I guess we’ll just have to let baseball decide. May the best team win!

Let us rise (yet again) in praise of David Americo Ortiz.

It might be true that we praise David Ortiz a lot on this site, but this time it is truly merited, as Ortiz is currently in the midst of one of the greatest periods of sustained excellence in baseball post-season history.

I think most baseball fans probably have some sense that Ortiz has been hitting wel in the playoffs of late, but I was floored when I actually took a look at the numbers.

From the start of the 2004 postseason through game one with Cleveland, Ortiz has played in 19 postseason games, batting .434 with 8 home runs, 23 RBI, and a .561 on-base percentage. Breaking down those numbers, he has hit safely in 33 out of 76 at-bats, and reached base in 55 out of 98 plate appearances, and has launched a home run once every 9.5 at-bats. Two of those home-runs were game-winning walk-off shots, and he also added a walk-off single.

Just looking at this year’s performance so far, Ortiz has reached base in 16 out of 18 plate appearances, going 7-9 with 8 walks and a hit-by-pitch, for a .778 batting average and an .889 on-base-percentage.

I think most of us can agree with the assumption that it’s harder for hitters to put up as good numbers in the postseason as they do in the regular season, given that most teams essentially go with a three-man rotation of their top three hurlers and only pitch the top half of their regular-season bullpen. Which just makes Ortiz’s numbers that much more amazing. Is there anyone we can think of who has hit that well for that many postseason games in a row?

Reggie Jackson got nicknamed “Mr. October” for his post-season heroics. If this continues, Ortiz is going to need a special postseason nickname too.

1. The national media (and, let’s be fair, UmpBump) obsessed over the will-they-or-won’t-they American League East title, as the Yankees posted a late surge and the Red Sox briefly flagged. But really, as both teams seemed extremely likely to make the postseason one way or another, this debate was only interesting to the rabid fans of each team. The real excitement was taking place in the National League. The AL is stronger than the NL, but has big divisions between rich and poor. The NL is more egalitarian, money-wise, and consequently the teams are more evenly matched. So it was that the season closed with a number of hard-fought, down-to-the-wire contests between NL teams, none more surprising than the Mets’ collapse and none more exciting than the one-game playoff between the Rockies and the Padres. Nevertheless, despite the close competition and unexpected upsets, count me shocked that it’s the Colorado Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks playing in the NLCS. That will be appointment TV in the Green household. But if you’d told me in April that either one of those teams would be in the World Series come October, I would have laughed in your face. I love baseball.

2. The full beard is making a comeback, if the AL playoffs are any measure. On the Sox, both Dustin Pedroia and Jason Varitek are growing full beards, and David Ortiz’s chin strap has been widening to approach actual-beard status. On the Indians, Casey Blake, Jake Westbrook, and Travis Hafner all sport healthy beards. Alas, poor Mike Napoli of the Angels has too much neck for his beard; a key rule of beardedness being never to set the bottom edge of the beard above your jawbone. Amateur. Nevertheless, with Casey looking cute and the Captain finally (yes! thank you Jesus!) moving on from that mid-90s Tower Records-clerk goatee, it may be time for a slight modification to our long-neglected UFH category. Except, of course, for Napoli. And I’m not sure that Pedroia’s full-beard-but-no-moustache look is quite kosher.

3. TBS is awful. I mean, Fox was awful too but at least they had appropriate baseball postseason theme music. These Dane Cook ads are killing me. (The phrase “There’s only one October!” is quickly inculcating within me a Pavlov’s dog response of uncontrollable rage-induced spasms.) The boring announcers who can’t keep track of which team is batting are killing me. The fact that TBS couldn’t get an HD deal done with Comcast in time for the playoffs is killing me. In fact, I am slowly dying a TBS-induced death punctuated by rage-spasms.

4. Kenny Lofton looks younger than Joba Chamberlain. Yet I’ve been watching him steal bases since I was ten years old. I’d like to know what moisturizer he uses.

5. Grady Sizemore not only has a great last name (Size! More! ME LIKE SIZE! ME LIKE MORE!) he really is very dreamy. Though either he has the best razor known to mankind, or he hasn’t gone through puberty yet. I don’t think we’ll be seeing a beard on that tender chin anytime soon.

6. I’ve never seen so many bugs as there were in the Yanks-Indians game on Friday night. That was gross.

7. The euphoria (and noise) levels in Fenway Park on Friday (oh yes, I was there) after Manny Ramirez’s walkoff homer easily matched any I’ve ever seen. The scene from the Fens to the Pru at 1 am was all honking and hugging and high-fiving (there are no strangers in Red Sox Nation). And as Manny’s power returns at just the right time, Manny’s pimp jobs have regained their ridiculously offensive nature. I’m so glad he’s playing for my team, because I would have to hate him if he played somewhere else. Plus next year, I think his dreadlocks will be long enough to obscure the name on his travel jersey.

8. With the Sox up 9-0 in the bottom of the 8th right now, I think it’s safe to say that three of four division series have now ended in 3-0 sweeps. And with that, it’s time to tune in to the only ongoing series, over in the Bronx. Spotlight’s on Joe Torre, but if 22-million (prorated) man Roger Clemens can’t come up big tonight, you have to think Brian Cashman is going to be looking at the classifieds, too.

That’s right. I’m predicting that the Sox will wrap this ALDS series up in four games. (Actually, I think they could do it in three with the injuries the Angels are facing right now, but I’m hedging my bets). The seven factors that will influence in this series (and which team has the edge in each) is the subject of this week’s Metro column.

This was a tricky column for me to write. I jotted the seven factors (starting pitching, bullpen, closer, defense, baserunning, overall offense, and power hitting) down in my notebook and then set out to evaluate each team independently. I was very much surprised by my findings: in every category, the teams are either even or the Red Sox have an edge. I struggled with writing such an apparently biased column, especially since I’m an unabashed Boston homer—would anyone take me seriously if I didn’t give the Halos an edge somewhere? But in the end, I had to go with what the data was telling me. To be sure, the Angels are a very good team, and in the playoffs anything can happen—a five-game series seems especially keyed to the possibility of upsets. But I was surprised at the edge the Red Sox have heading into this series, which starts tonight.

The most controversial call I made in the article was giving the Red Sox an edge in baserunning. Every talking head I’ve heard so far has handed this category to the Angels with ease. It seems like common sense. After all, the Angels love to steal. As a team, they’re second in the league in steals at 139 (all those double-steals helped them out here). Boston, with 96, is seventh. And Boston has never been known as a fast team. But as I looked at the numbers, the way the media is handing the Angels the edge in baserunning began to seem less like common sense and more like laziness.

With Coco Crisp, Julio Lugo, and Jacoby Ellsbury on the team, Boston’s slow days are over—at least temporarily. And when I looked at each team’s stolen base percentage, Boston had a huge advantage over Anaheim. Boston is actually first in the league with an 80% success rate, while Anaheim is eleventh, with a 72% success rate. (These numbers have changed slightly since I wrote the column—not sure what’s up with that, since the regular season is over. Thanks, ESPN.com! But the basic comparison is the same.) Smarter people than I have argued that, on an individual level, a player who can’t maintain a 75% stolen base percentage shouldn’t  be stealing bases, because he’s actually hurting his team. Where the Angels are concerned, however, stealing makes up for a lack of power hitting on their part. They clearly know how to get on base: they’re third on OBP and fourth in the league in hits. But they’re fifth in doubles (Boston is first) and eleventh in triples (and they’re a supposedly speedy team! even “slow” Boston ranks sixth in this category). When you look at home runs, the Angels are twelfth in the AL, ahead of only Minnesota and Kansas City. Clearly, Mike Scioscia feels that small ball is the way for this team to go—and it’s gotten them this far.

However, Boston’s better stolen base percentage tells me that baserunning could be a factor that tilts in favor of the Red Sox this postseason. They’re not stealing to make up for a lack of extra-base hits. They’re stealing from a position of strength, not a position of competitive weakness. They’re stealing situationally, strategically—and successfully. And that makes them more effective baserunners in the playoffs.

From Deadspin, via the Atlanta Journal Constitution, comes this tidbit about Turner’s strategy for broadcasting three playoff baseball games in one day:

Note: If a game lasts longer than its scheduled 3 1/2-hour window, the next game will begin on TNT, then shift to TBS.

I don’t have a lot to add to this except to say that I lived in Atlanta for three years. I was a Comcast customer with basic cable and, as part of that deal, I got TBS, but not TNT.

And if I was living without TNT today, and was forced to miss part of my favorite team’s playoff game, I would be irate.

Fortunately, I now live in Tucson and have PREMIUM cable, including TBS, TNT, MTV, ESPN and Comedy Central. No HBO, but one step at a time, you know what I mean?

And if you’re one of those poor schmoes who is living with TBS but without TNT, just pray that none of the games run long.