Were you shocked that Smoltz took the Red Sox' better offer?

When Braves President Terry McGuirk claimed Rafael Furcal had backed out of an agreement to sign with Atlanta, we were all appalled.

How could he?

Furcal and his agents denied committing to Atlanta, but who are you going to believe, the selfish ballplayer with the DUI conviction and his sleazy agents, or the model organization that won 14 consecutive division titles and managed to make J.D. Drew healthy and Gary Sheffield tolerable?

Obviously, we all believed the Braves.

But today Atlanta is once again crying foul, and this time I’m not buying it.

Here’s what McGuirk had to say about John Smoltz’s decision to sign a one-year contract with the Red Sox:

“John is a great guy. He follows his own head, and I just don’t know what’s going on with him right now,” McGuirk said, according to the report. “We’ve offered less of a guarantee, but we’ve offered a substantial guarantee. Coming off an injury like this, we feel like it’s the right thing that we should be doing.

“We’ve offered him a package that would get him in the $10 million range, if he were to pitch a full season and pitch well,” McGuirk said, according to the AJC. “For him to walk away from that and to go to another place, I’m just shocked and surprised.

Here’s the facts. Smoltz made $14MM in 2008. This offseason, the Braves declined an option to keep Smoltz in Atlanta in 2009. Then Atlanta strung Smoltz along for weeks before finally offering him a contract for far less guaranteed money than other teams were offering — and far, far less than he made last year.

Now, I’m not saying the Braves should have made Smoltz a bigger offer. Frankly, I think they were wise not to throw too much cash at a 42 year-old pitcher coming off shoulder surgery. But to claim you’re “shocked and surprised”? First of all, that’s redundant. Second of all, you can’t be serious. The Red Sox offered Smoltz nearly twice as much guaranteed money and a chance to pitch in maybe the best baseball city in America for a team that has an excellent chance of going to the postseason. And you’re surprised he’s going to Boston?

The Braves’ front office used to be the gold standard. But times have clearly changed.

I know we have that badass Delicious widget over there on the upper right corner now, but I thought I’d offer an old-fashioned reading post as we cruise towards the weekend:

• First the Mets had to fight a PR scandal over their new Citi Field, after Citi got bailed out by the American taxpayer (said taxpayer was none too thrilled that the naming rights for said stadium had cost $400 million). Now the team is assuring everyone that they are not, repeat, NOT for sale, even though ownership lost money in Bernie Madoff’s bizarre Ponzi scheme. Sounds exhausting.
• On WEEI.com: Rob Bradford has a fantastic piece where Dan Duquette talks about scouting — and drafting – Mark Teixeira, only to have Tex choose Georgia Tech instead.
• Craig Calcaterra: the “new Yankee Stadium is built on a foundation of graft.” Really, it’s like right out of Tammany Hall — the higher the land was valued, the more tax-free bonds the Yankees would get; so when the Yanks didn’t like the original valuation of the land, the city officials obligingly bumped it up from $27 million to $204 million. I wonder if there’s any connection to this article from last week’s New York Times: “Tax Shelter Helps Yankees Afford Those Big Salaries.” Any accountants out there want to do the math for me?
• In other Yankees news, I found this opening line unintentionally hilarious: Like a holiday shopper, the Yankees are carefully mulling how to spend their cash. In case you haven’t heard, this has been a disappointing holiday shopping season — to say the least — for retailers. Yet the Yankees have already spent more than $240 million on just two pitchers and are now considering a “hard push” for Manny Ramirez, including a rumored 3-year offer of as much as $75 million. That’s a lot of “careful mulling,” for sure.
• How crazy is this Rafael Furcal deal? I volunteered to cover MLBTR for the evening and spent the night updating this post. I think I have whiplash, now.
• Bobby Jenks gives a really interesting interview explaining why he doesn’t throw 100mph all the time anymore — because, he says, that’s his strategy. “Anyone can time 100 mph if they see it enough…My strikeouts are down, yes, but my pitch efficiency is higher than ever and my walks are down. I’m getting hitters swinging early in the counts, and when they get behind, I can put them away.” In other words, he’s not throwing…he’s pitching.
• Joe Posnanski takes a look at the Hall of Fame ballot and handicaps who’ll get in — and thinks Jim Rice will make it this time (even though Posnanski himself won’t be voting for him).
• Speaking of the HOF, HOFer Ryne Sandberg is moving up to AA — as a manager, that is. He’s been with the Cubs-affiliated Single-A Peoria Chiefs for the past two seasons, but will join the Double-ATennessee Smokies this season. Just another reason why this year’s minor league road trip will have to take in the Smokies!
• Speaking of minor league road trips, Deadspin has just noticed that the Buffalo Bisons have an ungrammatical name, which is something that my pal Rachael pointed out during the Bulls-Bisons game we watched in Durham in July. (I, on the other hand, took that moment to exclaim, “OH, the Buffalo BISONS — I GET IT NOW!“)

What did I miss?

Today the New York Post’s Joel Sherman tells us Rafael Furcal is likely to sign with the Oakland A’s, because Oakland is offering the most money.

But Furcal isn’t excited about playing in Oakland. In fact, between the A’s, Dodgers, Royals and Braves, the A’s are his last choice.

He is comfortable with the Royals because Furcal knows a few executives from his Atlanta days who are now in Kansas City, notably GM Dayton Moore. He liked playing with the Dodgers and believes of the finalists they have the best chance to be contenders next season. However, the Dodgers might not even offer three guaranteed years and Oakland already is at four guaranteed years.

One of the sources said Furcal was hoping that the Braves might revive trade talks for San Diego’s Jake Peavy and use Yunel Escobar to land the Padre ace. That would open up a return to Atlanta.

Rafael, can we be real for a moment? I know you and Dayton Moore go way back. But is he really so great that you would follow him to Kansas City, where the Royals haven’t had a winning season since 1994 and don’t seem likely to have another anytime soon?

May I remind you that the A’s are run by Billy Beane, who is also pretty awesome. The guy who’s married to Tabitha Soren wrote a book about Beane. And Brad Pitt is going to play Beane in a movie based on the book.

There are plenty of reasons not to sign with Oakland. Fan-support is at an all-time low. There’s a lot of crime in Oakland. Not everybody can pull off the white shoe look.

But avoiding Oakland because Billy Beane is not Dayton Moore (who only weeks ago traded for Mike Jacobs!) is just insane.

Between you and me, Rafael…the A’s are going to be good this year. They’ve got Matt Holliday and a buttload of young talent, including Travis Buck and Gio Gonzalez. You want to be a part of this team. You want to be the big piece that puts them over the top. You’ve got a lot of great baseball left in you, and there’s a lot you can teach their young players. And who knows…maybe the A’s would be willing to wear green shoes for a while? Couldn’t hurt to ask.

If the Dodgers want to win in the NL West, they’ll have to run a very tight pitching ship as their offense is below the fold in almost all categories (nearing rock-bottom in RBIs for instance) and not looking to improve much in the next two weeks. Much of that offensive mediocrity, however, can be credited to the fact that three of the major (would-be) run producers and scorers in the team are on the DL. Nomar Garciaparra is out with a bad calf (and the genetic disorder that prevents it from healing quicker), Andruw Jones is coming off knee surgery to repair torn cartilage, and Rafael Furcal has been battling a stiff back for almost two months now. All three are scheduled to beign rehab assignemnts with Triple A Las Vegas on Monday.

So far the Dodgers have managed to remain two and a half games behind first-place Arizona (albeit with a 37-42 record) due in part to the strong pitching from (of all people) Chan Ho Park, who’s 1-0 in three starts with a 1.20 ERA (after being in the pen to start the year) and Eric Stults (2-0, 0.60 ERA). Manager Joe Torre wants to up the ante, announcing a six-man rotation after Hiroki Kourda comes off the DL, and specifically because of Stults’ results (trying saying that three times!).

I doubt the Dodgers will be buyers in the trade market, if only because they’ve already got a bloated payroll with nothing to show for it. In fact, they’ve been having “cryptic meetings” with Derek Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, and its their young’uns that are producing (like Andre Ethier above).

Maybe if the coerce a few more wins out of Lowe and Chad Billingsley, and if they get their superstars back from Triple A rehab stints soon enough (not to mention the eventual return of Brad Penny and Jason Schmidt – but don’t hold your breath on Schmidt), they might be able to hold on to make it interesting in the NL West.

- What They Need Index -

Compared to last year, ranking the rookies for this season is pretty boring, since as Coley points out, most of the best rookies were in the NL, but even in the NL the choice is obvious given Ryan Braun’s utter dominance.

But I have been a bit surprised at some of the names that keep getting mentioned, as well as some of the names who haven’t been mentioned much.

So I decided to rank the top 15 rookies together in one group, including players from both leagues. Here is what I came up with:

1. Ryan Braun (NL)

2. Troy Tulowitzki (NL)

3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (AL)

4. Hunter Pence (NL)

5. Dustin Pedroia (AL)

6. Jeremy Guthrie (AL)

7. James Loney (NL)

8. Brian Bannister (AL)

9. Chris Young (NL)

10. Kyle Kendrick (NL)

11. Yovanni Gallardo (NL)

12. Peter Moylan (NL)

13. Reggie Willits (AL)

14. Joakim Soria (AL)

15. Hideki Okajima (AL)

Sure enough, 8 out of my top 12 rookies hail from the National League. Although I’m not sure if this necessarily means good things for inter-league balance, since the Red Sox and the Yankees are probably just going to sign away all these guys as soon as they hit free agency.

Also, as you can see, I agree with Coley’s contention that at least based on pure numbers, Troy Tulowitzki was really unlucky to have his rookie year in the same season as Ryan Braun. But in actuality I don’t really feel too bad for him, given that he benefitted greatly from playing half his games in Coors Field, posting a ridiculous .942/.720 home/road OPS split.

Hunter Pence had a heck of the year, hitting for both average and power and stealing bases as well, and even with his injury woes he still managed to play in 108 games and log 456 at-bats. He’s not the Rookie of the Year, but he has a heck of a future ahead of him.

After Braun, Dodgers first-baseman James Loney was actually the second-best rookie in the National League this season, and did get into 96 games, but couldn’t make as much of a contribution to his team as Pence or Tulowitzki since was pointlessly blocked for the first two months owing to Ned Colletti’s foolish decision to resign Nomar Garciaparra despite the fact that Loney led all of baseball in batting average at AAA in 2006.

Frankly, I don’t understand why anyone is even considering Delmon Young, and as you can see, I’ve left him off my list. In fact, he wouldn’t even make my top 20. Delmon Young led all rookies in at-bats with 654, yet only hit 13 home runs, walked a mere 26 times, and posted a woeful .723 OPS. 10 other rookies hit more home runs, most of them in far fewer at-bats. Out of the eight rookies who qualified for a batting title, five had a higher OBP than Young, including teammate Akinori Iwamura. The bottom line is, if you get 654 at-bats and OPS .723 as a corner outfielder, you are in fact severely hurting your team, even if you are a veteran. You are certainly not anywhere close to being the Rookie of the Year!

I’m also not sure why Hideki Okajima gets mentioned so much. Sure he had a great year, but Peter Moylan was by far the best rookie relief pitcher this year (although he was in the NL), and even in his own league Joakim Soria of the Royals put up nearly identical numbers while posting 17 saves to Okajima’s 5.

A guy who certainly deserves more consideration is D-Backs centerfielder Chris Young. He’s not the Rookie of the Year because his batting average and on-base percentage were atrocious, but he did contribute greatly at a defensive skill position while playing every day, and chipped in 32 home runs along with 27 stolen bases.

I’ve saved perhaps my most controversial call until last: I’m going to have to go with Daisuke Matsuzaka over Dustin Pedroia as my 2007 AL Rookie of the Year. First of all, I don’t buy the whole argument that Japanese players shouldn’t be eligible for ROY consideration given all their experience in Japan. Having watched a lot of Japanese baseball, I can say firsthand that it is nowhere near the level of the Majors. That’s why Matsuzaka’s ERA was 4.40 this year and not 2.35. Also, Matsuzaka was only 26, which isn’t really that old. If an American player gets lots of experience in the minors and then has a breakout season at 27 or 28, we don’t say he should be ineligible for the award.

But more importantly, Matsuzaka had a better year than Pedroia. Sure, he wasn’t *quite* as good as some of the more delierious Boston fans might have expected, but was still one of the better pitchers in the American League, posting 15 wins, pitching over 200 innings, and striking out 201 batters. Sure, Pedroia had a great season, but was he even the most valuable rookie on his own team? Put another way, would the Red Sox rather have played through this past season without Daisuke Matsuzaka, or without Dustin Pedroia? I think it’s clear that Matsuzaka made a greater contribution as a rookie in the AL.

For all you fantasy geeks that would rather endure a Bea Arthur striptease than watch your former all-star vet suffer through another horrendous season, I have masterfully compiled the following list.

This list dutifully releases you of all hardship involved in making the perpetually difficult decision: hope for the best or drop for the rest? I’ll make your decision for you…

1. ADRIAN BELTRE – Beltre is hitting an anemic .218 on the season with power numbers sagging across the board. What you may have missed is the fact that Beltre has swiped nine bags, nearly matching his output from the last two seasons combined. Some schmuck in your fantasy league will want Beltre the minute he hits two homeruns in a game, so stash him away for a trade deadline deal.

Verdict: KEEP HIM

2. LUIS CASTILLO – Is this guy infuriating or what? No doubt you drafted Castillo for his stolen bases, but fact of the matter is he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to. With declining stolen base totals each of the last three years (10 last year), Castillo serves little to no worth at the 2b position. Oh wait, he’s batting .345 with 20 rbi’s! Are you kidding?!? Do yourself a favor and trade him while he still has some value. Castillo has never had more than 47 rbi’s in a season, so don’t expect his pace for 90+ rbi’s to be sustainable.

Verdict: TRADE HIM…IMMEDIATELY

3. MIKE SWEENEY – Oh Mike, I’ve drafted you in three fantasy leagues over the past two years…oh, sorry Mike, I’ve dropped you in all three of those fantasy leagues. Sweeney’s days of .300+, 25+ hr, 85+ rbi are long gone. This guy has more health problems than Jack Bauer. With bulging discs and tight hammies and broken wrists and whatever else, Sweeney is not worth a roster spot.

Verdict: DROP HIM

4. SHAWN GREEN – Ever since the ‘roid rage days of 2002, Greenie has prided himself on being thoroughly mediocre. In the last three years, he has averaged 23 homeruns and a .278 batting average, fitting in perfectly with the Raul Ibanez’s of the outfield world. Those numbers are fine for a flex outfielder in mixed rotisserie formats, just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’ve found a gem. Verdict: KEEP HIM

5. RAFAEL FURCAL – Furcal has struggled so far in his first year west of the Mississippi, but I can’t remember a season in which he didn’t struggle before June. Although his batting average and power numers are down, Furcal has totaled 29 runs and 9 sb’s through the first six weeks, hardly numbers to complain about. You drafted Fookie for his stolen bases and in that regard he has come through.

Verdict: KEEP HIM

*note: a line in this post was changed to read “west of the Mississippi”, rather than “west of the Mason-Dixon Line.”

For all you fantasy geeks that would rather endure a Bea Arthur striptease than watch your former all-star vet suffer through another horrendous season, I have masterfully compiled the following list.

This list dutifully releases you of all hardship involved in making the perpetually difficult decision: hope for the best or drop for the rest? I’ll make your decision for you…

1. ADRIAN BELTRE – Beltre is hitting an anemic .218 on the season with power numbers sagging across the board. What you may have missed is the fact that Beltre has swiped nine bags, nearly matching his output from the last two seasons combined. Some schmuck in your fantasy league will want Beltre the minute he hits two homeruns in a game, so stash him away for a trade deadline deal.

Verdict: KEEP HIM

2. LUIS CASTILLO – Is this guy infuriating or what? No doubt you drafted Castillo for his stolen bases, but fact of the matter is he doesn’t run nearly as much as he used to. With declining stolen base totals each of the last three years (10 last year), Castillo serves little to no worth at the 2b position. Oh wait, he’s batting .345 with 20 rbi’s! Are you kidding?!? Do yourself a favor and trade him while he still has some value. Castillo has never had more than 47 rbi’s in a season, so don’t expect his pace for 90+ rbi’s to be sustainable.

Verdict: TRADE HIM…IMMEDIATELY

3. MIKE SWEENEY – Oh Mike, I’ve drafted you in three fantasy leagues over the past two years…oh, sorry Mike, I’ve dropped you in all three of those fantasy leagues. Sweeney’s days of .300+, 25+ hr, 85+ rbi are long gone. This guy has more health problems than Jack Bauer. With bulging discs and tight hammies and broken wrists and whatever else, Sweeney is not worth a roster spot.

Verdict: DROP HIM

4. SHAWN GREEN – Ever since the ‘roid rage days of 2002, Greenie has prided himself on being thoroughly mediocre. In the last three years, he has averaged 23 homeruns and a .278 batting average, fitting in perfectly with the Raul Ibanez’s of the outfield world. Those numbers are fine for a flex outfielder in mixed rotisserie formats, just don’t fool yourself into thinking you’ve found a gem. Verdict: KEEP HIM

5. RAFAEL FURCAL – Furcal has struggled so far in his first year west of the Mississippi, but I can’t remember a season in which he didn’t struggle before June. Although his batting average and power numers are down, Furcal has totaled 29 runs and 9 sb’s through the first six weeks, hardly numbers to complain about. You drafted Fookie for his stolen bases and in that regard he has come through.

Verdict: KEEP HIM

*note: a line in this post was changed to read “west of the Mississippi”, rather than “west of the Mason-Dixon Line.”