When the Tampa Bay Rays signed LF/DH Pat Burrell to a 2-year $16 million contract this past off-season, I thought that the defending AL champs had gotten a steal – especially in comparison to the 3-year $31.5 million deal that his replacement in Philadelphia, Raul Ibanez, would garner from Burrell’s old team. And while I won’t make final judgments until these two contracts are completed, it’s looking like I was wrong. Very, very wrong.

While Ibanez was posting career-best numbers as a 37-year old Phillie, Burrell was doing the exact opposite in Tampa. His walk rate is below career norms, he’s striking out more often than he has in several seasons and his power has seemingly disappeared (.385 SLG? Who are you?).

To his credit, the guy isn’t making excuses for himself. But that also means that we don’t quite know if there’s something wrong that can be fixed during the off-season.

There are, however, potential explanations for his dip in performance that could portend a much better season in 2010:

1. The talent gap between the AL East and NL East. Especially over the past few seasons, the quality of pitching in the NL East has been slightly underwhelming. Johan Santana didn’t enter the division until 2008 so the only top-level SP that Burrell had to face consistently over the last few seasons was John Smoltz. Now in the big boys league, he has to face the likes of C.C. Sabathia, Roy Halladay, Jon Lester and Josh Beckett. Can Burrell adjust to the higher quality pitching at the age of 33? I haven’t the faintest.
2. Hiding an injury. You wouldn’t expect a player to have such a dramatic drop in power numbers from one season to another and especially not at Burrell’s age. This is a guy who had slugged over .500 from 2005-2008. How does he become a sub-.400 slugger seemingly overnight? If he had a serious injury, that would explain quite a lot.
3. He’s done this before. The main reason why I don’t believe that Pat Burrell is washed up is because of his 2003 season. A year prior to that, the then-26-year old had a very strong line of .282/.376/.544 with 37 HRs. He had become on of the  better offensive threats in the National League. But he followed it up with a very disappointing season where he batted .209/.309/.404 with 21 HRs. And despite a wrist injury in 2004, his numbers rebounded very well and he was a solid hitter for the rest of his stay in Philadelphia. No actual reason (none that I saw, anyway) was ever really given for his sharp drop in production in 2003.

I am not going to say that any of these potential reasons are correct because at this point, I have no way of knowing anything. But I will say that Burrell most likely is not done, simply because it’s rare for a 33 year old hitter to fall off such a steep cliff. There’s got to be a reason aside from “decline” that ruined Burrell’s 2009 season. I just don’t quite know what that reason may be.

Because people will be upset if I wrote about Burrell and didn't include this photo...

Every season, weird stuff happens. And this season is no exception.

Some of these mysteries are easily solved. Barry Zito, for example, was 2008’s biggest train wreck. Now he’s back, with his best FIP in four seasons, and his best K/9 since 2002. How’s he doing it? Turns out, he learned a slider.

Then there’s the formerly soft hitting Ben Zobrist, who is now a prolific slugger. What’s up with him? Turns out he took some lessons from a hitting guru.

Some mysteries are harder to crack. Here are a few of 2009’s unsolved mysteries. Can you solve them?

How is old man Ibanez this good? You don’t go from a .479 slugging to .716 at the age of 37. It simply isn’t done. What’s going on here?

How does Willy Taveras still have a job? He’s fast. I get that. But outside of his injury-shortened 2007, when he was 29 and at his peak, he’s never been as good as a replacement level center fielder. Now he’s 31 and declining and his OBP is .297.

What happened to Orlando Cabrera’s glove? Last year, his Ultimate Zone Rating was 14. So far this season it’s -7.6. That’s a drastic drop off. According to Fangraphs, Cabrera was worth $15.6MM in both 2008 and 2007. So far this season, he’s cost his team $3.3MM. It’s normal for a player’s range to diminish with age, but not this fast.

When did Marco Scutaro learn how to hit? Not only is the Blue Jays SS hitting for more power and better average, but his plate discipline is also much improved. In 2008 he walked 57 times. So far this season, he’s walked 56 times. That kind of patience is usually not learned over the course of an offseason.

Who are these Mets? Seriously, I’ve never heard of any of them. Argenis Reyes? Pat Misch? Where did they come from? You’re making Paul cry.

Has Billy Beane lost “it”? The A’s have been “rebuilding” for three years now and even with the acquisitions of Matt Holliday and Jason Giambi, this team looks to be getting worse.

What happened to Milton Bradley’s power? His isolated power currently stands at .138, which is his lowest mark since 2001 and is a full .1 lower than either of his last two seasons.

How is Brandon Inge doing this? We have no idea. But the Tigers 3B is on pace to hit 39 HRs with a .360 OBP (both would tower over his previous highs) while playing brilliantly on defense.

Why is Emilio Bonifacio still playing? Clearly, he has Marlins Manager Fredi Gonzalez’s mother tied up in his basement. That’s the only explanation.

What unsolved mysteries are you working on?

Philadelphia Daily News columnist Bill Conlin is, we know, a class act with an open mind. But even Conlin can’t resist the chance to say “I told you so,” and this time he’s bragging about just how right he was about Raul Ibanez.

I saw Ibanez play often the past 3 years and didn’t need Pat Gillick to tell me the Phillies were getting one hell of a ballplayer. Yet when I uncurbed my enthusiasm for Raul’s all-around game, despite his age, I was buried by peeved naysayers. “Worse fielder than Pat . . . ” “Horrible arm, can’t run the bases . . . ” “Lacks Pat’s leadership and long-ball threat . . . ” Yadda, yadda, yadda. Weeks and weeks of yadda, yadda and anti-Raul ranting. Maybe it’s too early to say “I told you so,” but, here goes: I told you so. The guy was the Phillies’ best player the first month. Pat Burrell, whose defense also has been perfect, has one homer and 12 RBI for the scuffling Rays.

Baseball Daily Digest’s Bill Baer has already penned an exhaustive post about Ibanez’s performance and what many of us expected, so I’ll spare you the diatribe. But I feel inclined to point out that just because Burrell is off to a slow start in Tampa doesn’t mean he would have started slow had he stayed in Philly. Getting used to a new stadium, a new position and a slightly tougher league isn’t easy. Also, just because Burrell is off to a slow start doesn’t mean he’ll finish slow. He’s a notoriously streaky hitter. Last season, Burrell was the team’s MVP in the first half of the season (.404/.575/.979) and the team’s LVP in the second half (.313/.413/..575). Maybe this year he’ll start slow and finish strong? And maybe Ibanez won’t finish the year with 50 HR and 150 RBI (his current pace). I know that’s going out on a limb, but I think Raul is gonna cool off a bit, at the plate and in the field.

My biggest problem with the contract the Phils gave Ibanez is the length. Ibanez is 37 and Ruben Amaro Jr. gave him a three-year deal. Nobody doubted that Ibanez could continue to cheat time for one more year. Maybe two. But three? If Ibanez is still playing at an elite level when he’s 40, well, I really will owe Amaro and Conlin an apology.

PS. Hey Bill, remember that column you wrote in September of last year when you wished out loud that the Phillies had Gavin Floyd back? You drooled all over Floyd and his 18 wins, neglecting to take into account his unsustainably low babip. How is Floyd doing so far this season? What’s that you say? A 6.29 ERA? An ERA + of 80? Maybe you were wrong about Floyd? Maybe his high win total in 2008 was more luck than skill? Ha ha! Suck it, Conlin! Score one for wishful fan numbers!

Recently, the fans in the left field seats at Citizens Bank Park have taken to bowing to Raul Ibanez everytime he makes a play, “Wayne’s World” we-are-not-worthy style. And who can blame them? Ibanez is off to a scorchingly hot start, with 8 home runs, 21 runs, 21 RBI and a .408 OBP.

While I was listening to the fans chant “Rauuuuuuuul” (which sounds an awful lot like “booooo”), I wondered to myself, what would it take for the fans to actually boo Ibanez.

What do you think?

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Today Philly Daily News columnist Bill Conlin tells us to rest easy — Raul Ibanez is going to be way better than Pat Burrell ever was. And the 2009 Phillies lineup, which is chock full of lefthanded hitters, will be much improved.

From Philly.com:

Manuel will have some flexibility. You could see a lineup against a lefthanded starter that opens with the World Series alignment that flipped Victorino and Werth in the Nos. 2 and 6 holes. Ask CC Sabathia, now in Yankees pinstripes, how that worked out. With Werth establishing himself as a certified power threat, Charlie could bat Shane No. 2, Utley 3, Howard 4, Werth 5 and Ibanez 6. And please don’t start with, “Don’t tell me they’re gonna pay $10 million a year to a No. 6 hitter.” The Phillies just got through paying $14 million a year for a guy who hit .257, struck out a ton, clogged the bases, hasn’t driven in 100 runs since 2005, has never scored 100 runs, and is a seven-inning player.

Crashburn Alley (who you may remember has a bit of a history with Conlin) has taken the time to break Conlin’s column down Fire Joe Morgan-style. But somehow Crashburn neglected to take Conlin to task for accusing Burrell of clogging the bases. And I’m not gonna let that slide.

I’d rather turn this one over to an expert. Here’s what FJM’s Junior (Alan Yang) had to say about base-clogging in April:

The problem is, 99.99463% of the time when writers use “clog the bases” or “clog the basepaths” or some variant thereof, the guy they’re accusing of base-clogging is way better at getting on base, hitting home runs (the opposite of base-clogging — it’s base-Drano-ing!), or both. So it makes little to no sense to complain about their lack of speed.

There’s no debating that Burrell is slow. But it’s not like his replacement, Ibanez, is greased lighting. Moreover, as Junior points out, it doesn’t make any sense to criticize Burrell for base-clogging when he does a better job at getting on base — and clearing them with home runs (.367 OBP/33 HR in 2008) — than Ibanez (.358/23).

The lesson learned here, Bill, is that it’s never a good idea to borrow phrases from Dusty Baker.

Today the World Champion Philadelphia Phillies signed Raul Ibanez to a three-year, $30MM contract. This means Pat “The Bat” Burrell won’t be back.

Is Ibanez really better than Burrell? Let’s look at the numbers.

Last year Ibanez hit 23 home runs. Burrell hit 33. Over the last three seasons Ibanez has 77 home runs and Burrell has 92. Advantage: Burrell.

Ibanez is pretty much a lock to have an OBP around .350. Burrell, on the other hand, has a career OBP of .367, and last season his OBP was — wait for it — .367. Advantage: Burrell.

Ibanez doesn’t rely on walks to get on base to the same extent that Burrell does. His batting average last season was .293, compared to Burrell’s .250. That helps explain why Ibanez’s RBI totals are consistently above 100, while Burrell couldn’t crack 90 in 2008. Advantage: Ibanez.

Now let’s talk about defense.

Last season, Burrell was last among qualified NL left fielders in Revised Zone Rating (.829), meaning he didn’t get to many balls that were hit near him. Ibanez’s Revised Zone Rating was second among qualified AL left fielders (.893). Advantage: Ibanez.

In 2008, Burrell played 50 fewer innings in left than Ibanez but still had more out of zone plays. Advantage: Burrell.

Over the past three seasons, Burrell has thrown out 25 percent more runners than the average left fielder, but he’s been less successful holding runners — holding two fewer runners than average. Ibanez (who didn’t play the outfield in 2006), threw out almost 28 more runners than the average left fielder (in 2005, 2007 and 2008), but he was just average when it came to preventing runners from advancing. Advantage: Ibanez.

John Dewan’s Fielding Bible says Burrell made 20 fewer plays than the average left fielder in 2008, while Ibanez made 18 fewer plays. Advantage: Nobody.

So what does it all mean?

The good news is that it’s pretty clear that Ibanez is a better defensive player, though Burrell sets the bar pretty damn low. Offensively, Ibanez doesn’t hit for power like Burrell does, nor does he get on base as often, but his higher batting average could lead to more RBIs (though that’s not a given). And logic would dictate that Ibanez will flourish now that he’s departing Seattle’s anemic lineup and landing in the middle of Philly’s high-powered offense.

On the other hand, signing Ibanez will cost the Phillies a draft pick because the Mariners offered Ibanez arbitration. Moreover, Philadelphia won’t gain a draft pick when Burrell signs elsewhere because new GM Ruben Amaro, Jr. didn’t offer Pat “The Bat” arbitration.

Why didn’t Amaro offer Burrell arbitration? Because he was afraid Burrell would accept. But would that have been so bad? Burrell might have made as much as $16MM in 2009. That’s a lot of money and more than Ibanez will make. But signing Burrell to a one-year deal would also free up cash to sign a better LF in 2010, when the market could be flush with corner outfielders like Matt Holiday, Rick Ankiel, Vlad Guerero, Xavier Nady and Jason Bay.

When you boil it down, Ibanez and Burrell are both similar players. And since Ibanez will probably be cheaper than Burrell over the course of the next three years, this signing makes some sense. But when you factor in the loss of a draft pick and the fact that Ibanez will be 37 come June and 39 in the final year of this deal…well, I’m not sure one year of Burrell and a return trip to the free agent market wasn’t the better option.

UPDATE: The 700 Level has this to say about the Ibanez signing:

Already a lefty-heavy lineup, adding another southpaw doesn’t exactly sound like a great idea, despite Ibanez’s overall numbers. But he did hit lefties well last season, better, in fact, than he hit righties. His average against lefties was .305, and his OBP was .371, and he slugged .497. Versus righties, those numbers were .288, .352, and .470, respectively.

However, those splits might be misleading. Over the last three years, here are his numbers against lefties: .269 avg, .325 OBP, and .410 slugging; against righties over that span: .300, .366, .526, respectively.

Rob Neyer, meanwhile, pretty much agrees that Ibanez and Burrell are very similar players.

Adam Dunn could be the bargain of the offseason

Due to a scheduling snaffu (and Nick not reading his email) both he and I wrote posts about what the Angels need. Since we largely agree when it comes to the halos’ shortcomings, I won’t bore you with the post that I wrote. But I will further one point that he made.

Both Nick and I agree that Mark Teixeira probably isn’t worth all the money and years he’ll demand. Nick pointed out that there are cheaper options out there. Let me suggest one in particular. The Angels should sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now, as he may come surprisingly cheap. How cheap? Recently, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to a couple of officials who suggested Dunn might have to settle for a contract in the three-year, $36MM range. And today, Buster Olney says while “there had been talk during the summer of Adam Dunn getting $15 million a year this winter, now his salary range might be little more than half of that.”

If that’s true, that’s an absolute steal. Think about it — $12MM over three years is the same contract Jose Guillen got. $8MM a year is Adam Eaton money. I know Dunn strikes out a ton and he can’t catch a cold, but he’s a mortal lock to hit 40 homers (in the last four seasons he’s hit exactly 40). The Angels need to sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now. Right now. Go! Sign him!