This post is part of a series in which we lob hosannas in the general direction of any team *with* a sense of direction, and throw scorn-grenades at those teams that wandered aimlessly through the wasteland of the offseason as if waiting for some all-knowing beneficent deity to rain prospects upon them like manna from heaven.

Every year I give the Red Sox a good offseason grade and every year some person (rhymes with “bouchedag”) slams me for being a homer. But you know what? The Red Sox actually have one of the smartest ownership-management teams in baseball, if not the smartest. Take this year, for instance. I thought they should let Jason Bay walk, sign Marco Scutaro, sign Adrian Beltre, and sign Matt Holliday. (Three out of four ain’t bad.) They didn’t sign Holliday — but they did something else that I actually think is even smarter. They signed Mike Cameron to play center, moved Ellsbury to left, and used the extra dough to add another pitcher. And not just any pitcher: John Lackey. Why didn’t I think of that?

(Actually, I did think of signing Lackey; I just didn’t expect the Sox to shell out for an expensive, older, free agent pitcher. But I didn’t think of — masterstroke! — signing Cameron.)

Heading into 2010, the Sox boast what promises to be a smothering defense, coupled with a downright badass rotation: Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, John Lackey, Daisuke Matsuzaka, and Clay Buchholz. For those of you keeping track at home, two guys in that rotation have already thrown no-hitters in the bigs, four have wins in the postseason, and three are named John. One has stolen laptops. Impressive!

The thing everyone in Boston is concerned about is run production. The sports commentariat, in particular, is dismayed at the prospect of a Bayless lineup. This is the same commentariat, however, that has always underrated the contributions of JD Drew, took years to cotton on to Kevin Youkilis, and, prior to a certain infielder’s rookie season, asked, “Is this tiny Dustin Pedroia guy really going to be the starting second baseman for the Boston Red Sox?” Needless to say, the Sox lineup still boasts all three of these players, plus Victor Martinez. Adrian Beltre’s coming off a down year, but away from Safeco — and in front of Fenway’s left wall — his bat promises to play better.

The neat-o thing I like about this lineup is the flexibility it affords manager Terry Francona. (This is especially key considering that Boston’s team is relatively old, and it would behoove Francona to give his veterans regular rest.) Behold the depth:

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer (with backups in parens):

C – Victor Martinez (Jason Varitek)
1B – Kevin Youkilis (Victor Martinez, Mike Lowell)
2B – Dustin Pedroia (Jed Lowrie)
SS – Marco Scutaro (Jed Lowrie)
3B – Adrian Beltre (Mike Lowell, Kevin Youkilis, Bill Hall)
RF – JD Drew (Jeremy Hermida, Bill Hall)
CF – Mike Cameron (Jacoby Ellsbury, Josh Reddick)
LF – Jacoby Ellsbury (Bill Hall, Jeremy Hermida)
DH – Mike Lowell/David Ortiz (Victor Martinez)

SP1 – Jon Lester
SP2 – Josh Beckett
SP3 – John Lackey
SP4 – Daisuke Matsuzaka
SP5 – Clay Buchholz
(SP6 – Tim Wakefield)
(SP7 – Boof Bonser)

CL – Jonathan Papelbon (Daniel Bard)

Significant acquisitions: Marco Scutaro, Adrian Beltre, Bill Hall, Mike Cameron, John Lackey, Boof Bonser, Jeremy Hermida

Losses of note: Jason Bay, George Kottaras, Joey Gathright, Rocco Baldelli, Nick Green, Bill Wagner

Grade: A

This is, as Theo Epstein got slammed for saying, a bridge team. But what a beautiful bridge it is. And the Sox have enough high-ceiling prospects in the lower minors to give me faith in the future, as well.

- Hot Offseason Action index -

Experience has taught us that there is no better time to spot the normally elusive species known as the “Hot Baseball Wife” than when her husband signs a big new free agent contract, as wives are generally expected to appear at press conferences and such.

This year’s free agent signing period brought us new sightings, such as the photo above, of John Lackey’s wife Krista, who had otherwise kept a low profile since the couple wed just over a year ago.  She now takes her rightful place in the hallowed halls of the hot.  (Hat tip at Boston Dirt Dogs.)

More pictures after the jump… Read the rest of this entry »

This morning, Nick Cafardo gives us all the reasons why the Red Sox shouldn’t trade Jacoby Ellsbury — not even for Adrian Gonzalez.

The Sox need Ellsbury, Cafardo says. The only question is, where should he play? Center field or left field?

The only consideration in such a move would be leg preservation. Do you preserve Ellsbury’s legs and move him to left field so he can be more effective on the base paths and not wear himself out with diving catches in center, or do you preserve Cameron’s legs, which would allow him to concentrate on his offense?

Never mind that+/- and UZR hated Ellsbury in 2009. Never mind that some scouts say Ellsbury struggles with depth perception. Never mind that just about everyone agrees that, right now, Cameron is the better defender. The only consideration is leg preservation.

Now, I’ve never heard the phrase “leg preservation” before, in a baseball context or otherwise. But I don’t spend as much time around players, managers and execs as Cafardo, so I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt that he didn’t invent it.

I’m also going to assume that he knows that there are only 30 teams in the major leagues, despite the fact that he wrote in his column, “(Ellsbury)’s a young player who wants to be the best, and 31 other teams would love to have him.”

Hey, there are a lot of teams and sometimes it’s hard to keep track.

Regardless, “leg preservation” is a pretty stupid concept. It would be one thing if Cafardo was suggesting that left fielders are less likely to get injured than center fielders, since center fielders make more plays and therefore have more opportunities to hurt themselves. That would make some sense.

But Cafardo isn’t saying that. He’s saying that playing center field makes guys tired, and Ellsbury will steal more bases if he’s in left, and Cameron will hit the ball harder if he’s in left.

I’m not aware of any study that suggests that’s true. Moreover, common sense doesn’t suggest it would be true.

Is there going to be an occasion next season when Ellsbury gets to first base and says to himself, “Gee, I’d really like to steal second but I had to run for a fly ball in the gap in the top of the inning and now my legs are like rubber”? I doubt it.

I think I’m going to skip Cafardo’s column next time. For the sake of brain preservation.

Marco Scutaro is a member of the Red Sox, and it only took two years and a total of $12.5 million. Sure, there’s a “mutual option” tacked on the end of that, but the odds that Theo will pick it up are slim.

As Keith Law points out, the steepest part of this deal for the Sox was the first-round pick they had to part with. And if the Sox sign another Type A free agent who ranks higher than Scutaro — as they are reasonably like to — that gets downgraded to a second-round pick.

And down in the minors, Jose Iglesias remains unblocked.

Score this one a win for the Red Sox.

The Red Sox finished 7 games behind the Yankees and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How can they avoid a similar fate in 2010?

Boston’s biggest problem in 2009 was defense. They had the third-best run differential in baseball, yet ranked dead last in deff eff for much of the year. Their lineup, while certainly not bad, was not good enough. And their starting pitching, while good, was not good enough in the postseason.

Defense, offense, and pitching sounds like a lot (“Other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”) but it’s actually not that bad. Boston has a pretty good team. Their biggest need this winter is the left side of the diamond. They could beef it up with one or more of the following acquisitions:

1. Sign LF Matt Holliday. Theo Epstein has hardly dared to breathe Holliday’s name this winter, and insists loudly to all who will listen that he wants to re-sign Jason Bay. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much. Of the two, Holliday is clearly the left fielder the Red Sox need, superior on both offense and defense to Bay. (Bay has only once posted a positive UZR; Holliday has only once posted a negative UZR. Bay was worth 33.7 runs on offense, while Holliday’s bat was worth 36. Though some have wondered if Holliday is somehow incapable of hitting in the AL, it’s worth noting that his “terrible” slash line for the A’s was .286/.378/.454. Move him to hitter-friendly Fenway, and I think his righthanded bat will feel right at home. However, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox are loaded up with outfield prospects, so they might not want to commit a lot of money and years to a free agent signing there. (Also, Fire Brand of the American League likes the Jeremy Hermida acquisition.)
2. Sign 3B Adrian Beltre Beltre is another example of a righthanded hitter whose numbers would benefit from moving to Fenway Park, but I’m more interested in another aspect of his game: glovework. Beltre has been outstanding the last TK seasons as a third baseman, and the Red Sox desperately need to improve at third, where Mike Lowell, post-hip surgery, posted an UZR of -10.4. And while Kevin Youkilis can play third, his defense there is neutral, while his defense at first is actually a plus. (I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Boston to trade for a premier first baseman at this time.) If the Red Sox do sign Beltre, what happens to Lowell? I think the Red Sox just need to accept that, for 2010, they’ll have a very expensive DH platoon. To trade either Lowell or Ortiz, the Sox would have to eat a large portion of salary, and I’m doubtful about what they could get in return. Yes, a $25 million platoon is pricey. But those are sunk costs, and both players come off the books after next season — whether the Red Sox win or lose.
3. Acquire a shortstop Theo Epstein already missed out on JJ Hardy, but a girl can dare to dream of Marco Scutaro. Theo supposedly spends his free time scheming of ways to bring Hanley Ramirez back to Boston, but that seems like quite a long shot. Other names that have been bandied about include Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (great, so Bostonians can have another Drew brother to dump on?). It’s also worth mentioning that the Sox have defensively talented Cuban defector Jose Iglesias in their system, who they signed to a big-league deal in September. However, he’ll only be 20 in January and has “a swing-at-anything approach” according to Baseball Prospectus.

I’d be remiss if we didn’t at least talk about Boston’s pitching needs. You can never have too much starting pitching, and the Red Sox have diligently inquired with John Lackey’s agent. However, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll make a big push for him. There are also plenty of Type B free agent pitchers and rehab projects on the market, and the latter will be almost irresistible to Theo Epstein. For the GM who signed Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz, it will be nearly impossible to layoff the reclamation project crack pipe. With Boston’s superb medical staff, if any of these pitchers can be had at reasonable prices, you can bet Epstein will be in on it.

The Red Sox have the deep pockets to make some free agent signings; plus, their current core of home-grown players — Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia — are all signed to inexpensive, multi-year deals. If the Red Sox can add one of Holliday, Beltre, or Scutaro to beef up the left side of the diamond, and gamble on a good pitcher (or two) coming back from injury, they’ll have a decent shot at knocking the Yankees off their perch.

-What They Need index-

It’s the post-postseason here in Boston, and Sox fans have been ruminating on what the team should do to produce a better outcome next year. And yet we haven’t heard too many actual, you know, ideas on how to make that happen. It’s just, um, like, try harder, I guess?

But I have two ideas, just for starters:

1. Sign Matt Holliday instead of Jason Bay. Both LFers will be expensive, so the Red Sox should pick the slightly younger one with more defensive ability. Boston can afford Holliday, and anyway, Papi and Lowell will both come off the books after 2010. Before you wave the “but he sucked in the AL!” bloody shirt at me, recall that Holliday’s “shitty” OBP with Oakland was .378 — 8 points better than Bay’s first half-season in the AL. And while his power numbers were down, Oakland is definitely on the pitcher’s park side of things. He wouldn’t have that problem in Fenway.

2. Shop Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox need some youth, and their best prospects are all 2-3 years out. They also need infield help. It could be the ideal time to shop Pap, who won’t stay with the Red Sox once he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season anyway. (Plus, his periphs alarm me.)

What are your thoughts, Umpbumpers? Is this crazy-talk? Are there other moves you think Boston should make?

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at Umpbump, and this week we revisit Daisuke Matsuzaka’s wife Tomoyo Matsuzaka.

When we first broke the background story of Matsuzaka and his wife back in 2006, there wasn’t a lot of time to search for pictures, so we just went with what we could find on short notice. Since then, however, we have scoured the internets to find some more photos. Observe what we managed to come up with, after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

This WAR pie struck me as by turns satisfying and shocking. First, satisfying because it reveals the contributions of Jon Lester — who, earlier this season, was subjected to an embarrassing debate amongst fans over whether he was even a decent No. 3. But even so, it may be a shocking pill to swallow for Sox fans that Lester has contributed more to the team’s performance than Josh Beckett.

That big slices of pie have been gobbled up by Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia will not surprise observers of the team. But seeing JD Drew so high will come as a surprise to many, I fear; his playing seems to have been very underrated by Red Sox fans.

What shocks me, however, is seeing Brad Penny right behind Tim Wakefield. This is the guy Boston just released? For nothing in return? Oof. And Mike Lowell’s recent hot streak had left me assuming he’d take up more of the pie; same for Jason Bay. But their defense has eroded so much that they give up almost as many runs with their gloves as the produce with their bats. (Much to the chagrin of the aforementioned Mr. Penny.)

What should not come as a surprise, from the nice distribution of position players and pitchers above, is the even split between Boston’s hurlers and hitters in their overall pie:

Clearly, Boston can kill you on both sides of the ball. So why are they stuck 6 games behind New York and clinging to a tenuous Wild Card lead? I blame that crappy, crappy defense. Oh well.