The Red Sox finished 7 games behind the Yankees and were swept out of the first round of the playoffs. How can they avoid a similar fate in 2010?

Boston’s biggest problem in 2009 was defense. They had the third-best run differential in baseball, yet ranked dead last in deff eff for much of the year. Their lineup, while certainly not bad, was not good enough. And their starting pitching, while good, was not good enough in the postseason.

Defense, offense, and pitching sounds like a lot (”Other than that, what did you think of the play, Mrs. Lincoln?”) but it’s actually not that bad. Boston has a pretty good team. Their biggest need this winter is the left side of the diamond. They could beef it up with one or more of the following acquisitions:

1. Sign LF Matt Holliday. Theo Epstein has hardly dared to breathe Holliday’s name this winter, and insists loudly to all who will listen that he wants to re-sign Jason Bay. Methinks the gentleman doth protest too much. Of the two, Holliday is clearly the left fielder the Red Sox need, superior on both offense and defense to Bay. (Bay has only once posted a positive UZR; Holliday has only once posted a negative UZR. Bay was worth 33.7 runs on offense, while Holliday’s bat was worth 36. Though some have wondered if Holliday is somehow incapable of hitting in the AL, it’s worth noting that his “terrible” slash line for the A’s was .286/.378/.454. Move him to hitter-friendly Fenway, and I think his righthanded bat will feel right at home. However, it’s worth noting that the Red Sox are loaded up with outfield prospects, so they might not want to commit a lot of money and years to a free agent signing there. (Also, Fire Brand of the American League likes the Jeremy Hermida acquisition.)
2. Sign 3B Adrian Beltre Beltre is another example of a righthanded hitter whose numbers would benefit from moving to Fenway Park, but I’m more interested in another aspect of his game: glovework. Beltre has been outstanding the last TK seasons as a third baseman, and the Red Sox desperately need to improve at third, where Mike Lowell, post-hip surgery, posted an UZR of -10.4. And while Kevin Youkilis can play third, his defense there is neutral, while his defense at first is actually a plus. (I don’t think it’s realistic to expect Boston to trade for a premier first baseman at this time.) If the Red Sox do sign Beltre, what happens to Lowell? I think the Red Sox just need to accept that, for 2010, they’ll have a very expensive DH platoon. To trade either Lowell or Ortiz, the Sox would have to eat a large portion of salary, and I’m doubtful about what they could get in return. Yes, a $25 million platoon is pricey. But those are sunk costs, and both players come off the books after next season — whether the Red Sox win or lose.
3. Acquire a shortstop Theo Epstein already missed out on JJ Hardy, but a girl can dare to dream of Marco Scutaro. Theo supposedly spends his free time scheming of ways to bring Hanley Ramirez back to Boston, but that seems like quite a long shot. Other names that have been bandied about include Yunel Escobar and Stephen Drew (great, so Bostonians can have another Drew brother to dump on?). It’s also worth mentioning that the Sox have defensively talented Cuban defector Jose Iglesias in their system, who they signed to a big-league deal in September. However, he’ll only be 20 in January and has “a swing-at-anything approach” according to Baseball Prospectus.

I’d be remiss if we didn’t at least talk about Boston’s pitching needs. You can never have too much starting pitching, and the Red Sox have diligently inquired with John Lackey’s agent. However, I think it’s unlikely that they’ll make a big push for him. There are also plenty of Type B free agent pitchers and rehab projects on the market, and the latter will be almost irresistible to Theo Epstein. For the GM who signed Bartolo Colon, Brad Penny, and John Smoltz, it will be nearly impossible to layoff the reclamation project crack pipe. With Boston’s superb medical staff, if any of these pitchers can be had at reasonable prices, you can bet Epstein will be in on it.

The Red Sox have the deep pockets to make some free agent signings; plus, their current core of home-grown players — Lester, Youkilis, and Pedroia — are all signed to inexpensive, multi-year deals. If the Red Sox can add one of Holliday, Beltre, or Scutaro to beef up the left side of the diamond, and gamble on a good pitcher (or two) coming back from injury, they’ll have a decent shot at knocking the Yankees off their perch.

-What They Need index-

It’s the post-postseason here in Boston, and Sox fans have been ruminating on what the team should do to produce a better outcome next year. And yet we haven’t heard too many actual, you know, ideas on how to make that happen. It’s just, um, like, try harder, I guess?

But I have two ideas, just for starters:

1. Sign Matt Holliday instead of Jason Bay. Both LFers will be expensive, so the Red Sox should pick the slightly younger one with more defensive ability. Boston can afford Holliday, and anyway, Papi and Lowell will both come off the books after 2010. Before you wave the “but he sucked in the AL!” bloody shirt at me, recall that Holliday’s “shitty” OBP with Oakland was .378 — 8 points better than Bay’s first half-season in the AL. And while his power numbers were down, Oakland is definitely on the pitcher’s park side of things. He wouldn’t have that problem in Fenway.

2. Shop Jonathan Papelbon. The Red Sox need some youth, and their best prospects are all 2-3 years out. They also need infield help. It could be the ideal time to shop Pap, who won’t stay with the Red Sox once he becomes a free agent after the 2011 season anyway. (Plus, his periphs alarm me.)

What are your thoughts, Umpbumpers? Is this crazy-talk? Are there other moves you think Boston should make?

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at Umpbump, and this week we revisit Daisuke Matsuzaka’s wife Tomoyo Matsuzaka.

When we first broke the background story of Matsuzaka and his wife back in 2006, there wasn’t a lot of time to search for pictures, so we just went with what we could find on short notice. Since then, however, we have scoured the internets to find some more photos. Observe what we managed to come up with, after the jump…

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This WAR pie struck me as by turns satisfying and shocking. First, satisfying because it reveals the contributions of Jon Lester — who, earlier this season, was subjected to an embarrassing debate amongst fans over whether he was even a decent No. 3. But even so, it may be a shocking pill to swallow for Sox fans that Lester has contributed more to the team’s performance than Josh Beckett.

That big slices of pie have been gobbled up by Beckett, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia will not surprise observers of the team. But seeing JD Drew so high will come as a surprise to many, I fear; his playing seems to have been very underrated by Red Sox fans.

What shocks me, however, is seeing Brad Penny right behind Tim Wakefield. This is the guy Boston just released? For nothing in return? Oof. And Mike Lowell’s recent hot streak had left me assuming he’d take up more of the pie; same for Jason Bay. But their defense has eroded so much that they give up almost as many runs with their gloves as the produce with their bats. (Much to the chagrin of the aforementioned Mr. Penny.)

What should not come as a surprise, from the nice distribution of position players and pitchers above, is the even split between Boston’s hurlers and hitters in their overall pie:

Clearly, Boston can kill you on both sides of the ball. So why are they stuck 6 games behind New York and clinging to a tenuous Wild Card lead? I blame that crappy, crappy defense. Oh well.

So the rending of garments, tearing of hair, beating of breasts etc has been in full swing in Boston today after last night’s 8-4 loss to the New York Yankees. It’s August and the Red Sox are 7.5 games out of first, and just barely clinging to a tenuous lead in the Wild Card race. Plus the two teams nipping at their heels — Tampa Bay and Texas — seem to be playing with newfound second-half vigor, whereas in Boston it feels like our local nine are staggering to the finish line with all the enthusiasm and verve of the Bataan Death Marchers.

The headlines today proclaim that Josh Beckett was “hammered,” “battered,” “knocked around,” etc. And true, he did give up 5 dingers. But — and this may sound slightly crazy, I know — I really don’t think he pitched that badly. After all, he gave up only 9 hits in 8 innings of work. He struck out 5, while walking 0. And, given the way the Red Sox were scoring runs this weekend, somehow the 4-run deficit never felt insurmountable. And indeed, it’s not as if Beckett labored through the outing — he threw 120 pitches, which is high, but not as high as you would have thought it would be if you’d known he was going to work 8 innings and allow 8 runs to score.

Suffice it to say, it was a curious outing. And I’m curious to know if I sound totally-nuts-suffering-from-Stockholm-Syndrome, or refreshingly sane amidst a sea of Sox fan sturm und drang.

Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at Umpbump, and this week’s honoree is Enza Sambataro, the wife of Boston Red Sox 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis.

A native of Newton, Mass., and a fan of the Red Sox since childhood, Enza first became famous in 2004 for briefly dating fellow Massachussets native Ben Affleck after they met at a charity bowling event organized by Nomar Garciaparra.

Enza then met and became friends with Youkilis through mutual friend (and then Red Sox pitcher) Lenny DiNardo. The couple was friends for several years before getting engaged in 2007 and finally tying the knot this past offseason.

Before her engagement to Youkilis, Enza worked as a sales manager at several television stations in the Boston area. She now works as the CEO of Youkilis’s charitable foundation, “Hits for Kids.”

Enza’s marriage to Youkilis is her second. After she broke up with Affleck she had a brief, 7-month marriage and divorce with a Boston-area car dealer, which produced a son, Mikey, now aged 5.

More pictures after the jump…

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It’s been a wild few weeks in Boston Red Sox-land, with Boston axing Mark Kotsay and his beautiful wife Jamie in favor of Adam LaRoche, the steroid revelations about David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and the fevered speculation over whether Theo Epstein could — or would — swing a trade for Roy Halladay.

The dust is now at least starting to clear (at least, until Michael Vick signs with the Patriots, but that’s another story). Today, Boston gave up on acquiring Roy Halladay, went after Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez but then gave up on him, too, after Kevin Towers asked for the moon, and ultimately acquired Cleveland’s Victor Martinez (who can play first, catch, and DH) for reliever Justin Masterson and pitching prospect Nick Hagadone, as well as pitcher Bryan Price. This made the newly acquired LaRoche expendable, so Boston swapped him with the Braves for Casey Kotchman.

MLBTR said of the Martinez trade, “Gut reaction: nice haul.” From this I presume they meant that the Indians got a nice haul for Martinez (and this before Price was known to be part of the deal) but my reaction was, not so fast. I think this is a great deal for Boston. They get a versatile player in the switch-hitting Martinez, who is still only and beefs up their flailing offense. They deal a sidearm reliever who seems due to be figured out by opposing hitters and a high-ceiling pitching prospect returning from Tommy John surgery. Yes, Hagadone strikes out a ton of batters (11.7 K/9 over parts of three seasons) but he’s only started 23 games. He’s never pitched above the Sally League. And he throws a lot of walks: a 5.0 BB/9 in low-A this year. I know the Red Sox were high on him, but baseball is littered with high-ceiling prospects who just didn’t work out. This deal not only helps the Red Sox this year, but it helps them next year, too, as it will let them kick their dire catching problem down the road if they have to.

Price is sort of the mystery-man in this deal: a 6′4″, 210-lb righty who’s been pitching for high-A Salem. He was a 1st round (45th overall) pick in the 2008 draft. He’s 1 and 6 in Salem with a 6.54 ERA, but he also strikes out a lot of hitters. In 8 games for the low-A Greenville Drive, he went 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA, and had a more impressive season in his pro debut last year, where he struck out 43 and walked 10 in 12 games.

In the end, despite the urge to pronounce “winners” and “losers” (as Sports Illustrated writers were doing on Twitter within moments of the deadline closing) this may be one of those trades that is a good deal for both teams involved. However, it seems to this observer that the Red Sox managed to buy low on Martinez, who has been slumping, and sell high on Masterson, who got all kinds of good press last season after an impressive MLB debut, but who posted a 5.73 ERA in July.

The Kotchman/LaRoche deal is another smart move by Boston. As a Beantowner, I didn’t really understand why Boston dumped Kotsay for LaRoche in the first place. (While LaRoche is a modest offensive upgrade, Kotsay could play outfield and infield, and was solid defensively.) So I’m glad to see the back of LaRoche, and glad to welcome the defensively skilled Casey Kotchman to Boston. A week or so ago, when I was writing about the alleged struggles of Jon Lester for the Metro, Boston ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. Today, they actually rank dead last — 30th. If Kotchman can sub in as needed for the defensively challenged Martinez and allow Kevin Youkilis to slide over to third, that should materially improve Boston’s defense. No, Youk’s -2.2 UZR at third isn’t great, but it’s substantially better than Mike Lowell’s -9.0 rating. Plus, if Big Papi suddenly loses his steroids power stroke again, Lowell can just DH.

The way I see it, Boston addressed their two biggest challenges: a struggling offense and an execrable defense. And they did it for a fraction of what Roy Halladay would have cost.

So, yes…if I actually ever updated my Twitter feed, I suppose I’d declare them trade deadline winners too.

While all 2Bs pale in comparison this year to Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, and Ian Kinsler (whose BABIP is only .238, btw, if you’d like to trade for him in your fantasy league) I found myself caught in the midst of a debate the other day over the relative merits of Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Yankee middleman Robinson Cano.

So I did what I do in these situations: I looked at a bunch of numbers. (In this case, all these numbers were up-to-date going into last night’s action.)

Cano is hitting .310/.342/.491. Pedroia’s hitting .304/.377/.423. Pedroia takes 3.90 pitches per plate appearance, while Cano takes 3.38; walks-per-K puts Pedroia at 1.56, Cano at .60. They have each grounded into 13 double plays. They each have 58.5 runs created. Edge? I’d call it even. Cano hits more homers, but Pedroia has more patience at the plate and hits a lot of doubles.

What about baserunning? Cano has 4 stolen bases and has been caught 4 times. Pedroia’s swiped 14 bags and has been caught stealing 5 times. But before you hand the crown to Pedroia, take a look at their EQBRR: 0.54 (Pedroia) vs 0.83 (Cano). Pedroia isn’t actually that fast; he steals those bases with his ninja skills. So while Pedey swipes more bags, it seems Cano is actually the better baserunner. Edge? I guess I’ll give it to Cano, since the value of a stolen base is marginal.

Looking at some more advanced metrics, Pedroia’s wOBA is .357 to Cano’s .356, and his wRAA is 10.1 to Cano’s 9.4. And Pedroia’s wRC also outstrips Cano’s by a narrow margin, 59.9 to 57.5. Pedroia’s WAR: 2.8. Cano’s? 2.5. Pedey has a RAR of 27.6, while Cano has a RAR of 25. VORP: Pedroia is at 22.0 to Cano’s 22.5. Perhaps Pedroia has a slight edge overall here, but even so, am I the only one who feels like we’re splitting hairs?

On defense, Cano has turned 6 more DPs than DP, and Pedroia has 5 errors to Cano’s 3. But again, before you declare Cano the victor, keep in mind that Pedroia’s UZR is 5.8, and has been a positive number ever full season in the bigs so far. Cano’s current rating of 0.7 marks only the second time in five seasons (counting this one) that he’s put up a positive UZR. Edge? Pedroia.

One area where Pedroia has Cano handily beat is WPA (win probability added), which puts Pedroia at 0.93 and Cano at -1.92 — the worst of any regular second baseman in MLB.

Pedroia has two All-Star nods, an MVP trophy, a Rookie of the Year award, a Gold Glove, and (somewhat hilariously) a Silver Slugger. He’s 25 and is signed to a $40.5 million, 6-year contract (2009-2014) with a club option for 2015. In three full seasons, he has an OPS+ of 111.

Cano was a ROY runner up, has one All-Star nod, a silver slugger, and came in 22nd in MVP voting in 2006. He’s 26. He’s signed to a 4 year, $30 million contract (2008-2011), with club options for ‘12 and ‘13. In five seasons, Cano has an OPS+ of 110.

Can you tell the difference? I’m not sure I can.