In tonight’s game between the Reds and the Cubs, Cubs starter Rich Harden had already run up a pitch count of 103 through 4 innings of work, despite only allowing 1 run, so Cubs manager Lou Pinella opted to remove him from the game (wisely, I would say, given Harden’s legendary fragility). Harden left with a 4-1 lead, but obviously could not get the win, since he had not pitched the requisite 5 innings.

Rookie reliever Jeff Stevens thereupon entered the game to start the 5th frame, pitching one inning and earning his first ever career win.

The only problem was, in his one inning of work Stevens gave up two singles and a three run bomb to Johnny Gomes, erasing the Cubs’ lead and leaving the game as a 4-4 tie.

The Cubs promptly came back and scored a run in the bottom half of the fifth, and scoreless relief by three other Cubs relievers, including 2 innings of hitless, 3-strikeout work by Aaron Heilman, preserved a 6-4 victory for Chicago, and saved the “win” for Stevens.

This is one of the worst cases of “vulturing a win” that I’ve seen in a long, long time. Stevens was far and away the worst Cubs pitcher in this game, posting a -.265 WPA whereas all the other four pitchers were positive, and yet he was awarded the win.

I know I’m just beating a long dead horse here, but why again do so many people hang so much of their evaluation of a player (not to mention Cy Young Awards), on this incredibly flawed stat?

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

I’ll state up front that I’m a little more interested in this story than most people, because because I’m from the same part of southeastern Pennsylvania as Ben Davis and he and I have attended the same Super Bowl party in the past.

But I think even somebody who’s never met the former catcher will think it’s interesting that, in his first season as a pitcher, he’s recorded 14 Ks in 11.2 innings, while walking only 2 batters.

Granted it’s single-A and Davis has given up 10 hits, but he’s only allowed 1 HR, and his WHIP is a very healthy 1.03. The Sarasota Reds’ oldest player even has four saves!

It’s still a longshot that this 32-year-old former second overall pick will make it to the big leagues as a pitcher. But so far so good.

Because they sure as hell don’t have any offense.

The Reds’ pitching staff, especially Johnny Cueto, Aaron Harang, and the front end of the bullpen, has somehow kept Cincinnati in the thick of it, just 1.5 games off the pace in the NL Central, despite the fact that pretty much the entire team is hitting .200 or below.

Sucking it - Phillips is batting .174

Indeed, an incredible five starters are below the Mendoza Line – C Ramon Hernandez (.175), 2B Brandon Phillips (.174), 3B Edwin Encarnacion (.159), SS Alex Gonzalez (.111), and LF Jerry Hairston Jr. (.179).  Hairston’s platoon partner Chris Dickerson is barely any better, at .214, and even team star Jay Bruce had to go 2-4 last night to raise his average to .238.

Outside of Joey Votto this team is pretty much praying for errors or hit-by-pitches when they are at bat, because their team OBP is a lowly .317.  It’s not even like they can get some runs back with the long-ball, having hit only 9 dingers so far.

It’s still early, but the Reds’ offense is looking pretty toothless, at 28th in the majors in runs scored. And even though some of these guys are bound to improve, its not as if any of these guys are really all that good to begin with, and this is basically the same team that was 23rd in runs last year.  So just waiting for these guys to revert to career norms is not going to cut it.

With their pitching the Reds have a legitimate chance to stay in contention this year, but they have to find some way to get some more big bats in there, and soon.  This is a team that could have really benefitted from signing a guy like Adam Dunn to a short-term deal.  If only he actually liked to play baseball, am I right?

Two months ago when I wrote up the “What They Need” post for the Cincinnati Reds, I made a claim that they may be  my darkhorse team to make the playoffs in 2009. And since I’ve been assigned to write this “Hot Offseason Action” post, I now have to defend myself. Awesome.

For those of you who are men or women of action and just can’t be bothered to read what I had written earlier, here’s a brief summary:

1. The Reds offense was unlucky and should have been good enough to score more runs.
2. The team has some breakout candidates.
3. Their defense needed much upgrading – especially 3B, SS, and LF.

Huh. That was brief. And to think I wasted all those calories typing up the WTN…

Anyhow, the team dared to not listen to me and appear set to go into 2009 with Edwin Encarnacion firmly entrenched at third base instead of left field. I think that this is a mistake. His offensive potential is too good to keep him out of the everyday lineup, but the man is a disaster at the hot corner.

The team’s shortstop defense should be improved quite a bit as Alex Gonzalez returns from a knee injury that wiped out his entire 2008 season. And left field appears to belong to Chris Dickerson who has shown good plate discipline but won’t help you too much with the glove.

And while I wholeheartedly supported their decision to let Corey Patterson go, I must also vehemently protest their decision to replace him with Willy Taveras in center. This is akin to MTV finally ceasing to bombard me with commercials for “The Hills” and instead giving me a suicide-inducing dose of “The City” ads instead.

Things certainly aren’t all bad in Cincinnati. They upgraded the bat out of the catcher’s spot when they acquired Ramon Hernandez in a trade for utilityman Ryan Freel. And while I still think that Dickerson’s numbers in 2008 were a fluke (he’s too old to be a prospect and never showed that much power in the minors), he deserves a shot if they’re keeping Encarnacion at 3rd. Add in a full season of Jay Bruce and the Reds offense is looking solid even without Adam Dunn.

And I remain bullish on this pitching staff. Edinson Volquez is not going to be as successful as he was in 2008, but in turn I suspect that neither Aaron Harang nor Bronson Arroyo will be as bad as they were. Johnny Cueto can already give you league average numbers and Micah Owings should be just fine as a #5.

OFFSEASON TRANSACTIONS

Add: Willy Taveras, Ramon Hernandez, Arthur Rhodes, Jonny Gomes, Laynce Nix, Aaron Fultz, Ben Davis, Humberto Cota

Lost: Ryan Freel, Corey Patterson, Jeremy Affeldt, Paul Bako, Garey Majewski, Javier Valentin, Matt Belisle, Andy Phillips, Jolbert Cabrera

PROJECTED LINEUP

C: Ramon Hernandez
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Brandon Phillips
3B: Edwin Encarnacion
SS: Alex Gonzalez
LF: Chris Dickerson
CF: Willy Taveras
RF: Jay Bruce

PITCHING:

SP1: Aaron Harang
SP2: Edinson Volquez
SP3: Bronson Arroyo
SP4: Johnny Cueto
SP5: Micah Owings

CL: Francisco Cordero

GRADE: C-

This looks like a team that’s good enough to win at least 82 games. And while I know that the Cubs will trump them for the division crown, it’s not that crazy to think that the Reds will be in the Wild Card hunt come August and September as long as fate doesn’t intervene.  Even though I wasn’t impressed by their offseason, that doesn’t dampen my expectations of them come 2009 since I expect the improvements to come from within.

But I also suspect that their defense is going to cost them a couple of games and am always wary of what kind of lineup manager Dusty Baker is going to trot out there as soon as something goes wrong. He and I are just on two different wavelengths as to what ought to be valued in a ballplayer.

Yet, I look forward to hearing more about the Reds in 2009. They’ve got an interesting team this year, which is something I haven’t said in quite some time.

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

This obviously may change by the time spring training rolls around, but if I had to pick a dark horse playoff team in 2009, the Cincinnati Reds would get a lot of consideration.

First and foremost, the Reds offense posted a .278 BABiP in 2008, which was the worst figure in all of baseball. Second baseman Brandon Phillips went from .300 and .304 BABiPs in 2006 and ‘07 to a .277. Edwin Encarnacion from .307 and .322 to a .264. Consequently, both of these key figures posted sub-par numbers in 2008. Expect a rebound.

Secondly, there’s that youth movement that’s taking shape in Cincy. In addition to Phillips and Encarnacion, the Reds are stacked with young talent – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey. While it’s highly unlikely that all these players blossom into stars, there’s probably at least two of them who ought to be cornerstones of the franchise for years to come, plus a couple of solid major leaguers. With another year of baseball under their belts, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Volquez wasn’t the only standout in the bunch next season.

But simply waiting for players to mature or rebound won’t be enough. Their team defense was bordering on atrocious in 2008. Not only did their pitchers have to deal with the worst Defensive Efficiency Ratio in MLB (percentage of balls in play that were fielded – basically BABiP from the pitching aspect), the infielders had a .769 Revised Zone Rating (well below the league average .783). When you pitch in a home run happy park like the Great American, you want to keep the ball down. But in the Reds’ case, that wasn’t necessarily a good thing since far too many of the ground balls went through the porous defense.

So the first recommendation would be to find a good defensive shortstop. Jeff Keppinger started 101 games at short and had an OPS+ of 70 and an equally awful .797 RZR and 27 Out of Zone plays. He was hurting them offensively and defensively. With Rafael Furcal spurning Oakland’s offer, he’s still available. If he’s too costly, someone like Cesar Izturis would still be an upgrade.

For left field, the Reds have options. One, they can let Chris Dickerson try and prove that he’s no fluke (he probably is). Two, they can move Edwin Encarnacion there. He was among the worst defensive players in the National League in 2008 but his offensive potential is still too intriguing to give up on him entirely. Moving him to left would allow the Reds to improve defensively in left field (where Adam Dunn started 110 games) and at the hot corner. On the free agent third basemen front, the only name that makes sense is Casey Blake. But I have a feeling he’ll end up signing a deal that exceeds actual value.

There’s also a hole in center field. Mercifully, the Reds decided to just let Corey Patterson go, thus preventing Dusty Baker from giving him another 392 plate appearances despite the fact that the man had an OPS+ of 48. No, that’s not a typo. 48. Jay Bruce also spent some time here in 2008 but his future as I understand it is probably in RF. The future CFer for Cincy could be 24 year-old Drew Stubbs, known for his great range in the outfield. But Stubbs still strikes out too much to project as a star. And although he may one day be ready, he’ll probably struggle big time facing big league pitching. So it makes sense for the Reds to target a defensively capable CFer to a short term deal (Jim Edmonds or Mark Kotsay, anyone?).

And unless they trade Homer Bailey, their rotation should be set – Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey. I expect Volquez’ numbers to regress a bit, but both Arroyo and Harang (especially if the defense behind them can be improved) should be better. Also, with Jeremy Affeldt signing with San Francisco, the bullpen could use another arm.

Regardless, their primary goal ought to be improving their defense, specifically at short, third, and left. Both the Rays and Brewers were in similar situations last year and a few changes made a big difference for them. So with a bit more luck and better gloves, the Reds could make some noise in the NL Central next year.

- What The Need Index -

How do you improve the postseason chances of a team that’s 18th in slugging percentage and and 21st on on base percentage? Answer: You trade for Adam Dunn.

That’s exactly what the Arizona Diamondbacks did today, acquiring the lefty slugger for prospect Dallas Buck and two players to be named later.

It’s no secret that Arizona was in dire need of a bat. With Orlando Hudson now out for the remainder of the season, first baseman/left fielder Connor Jackson was the only big offensive threat in the entire lineup. With the left fielder Dunn joining the team, the Diamondbacks can keep Jackson at first for the rest of the season. Moreover, this allows manager Bob Melvin to take Chad Tracy out of the everyday lineup and use him as a lefty bat off the bench or to spell Jackson or third baseman Mark Reynolds on occasion. The D-Backs will also be getting RFer Justin Upton back from the DL any day now, and should also help give the club a nice offensive boost.

Prior to the trading deadline, SI’s Jon Heyman was reporting that Arizona had at the time offered Tracy to Cinci for Dunn but was unsurprisingly rejected. A couple of weeks and a Manny-to-Dodgers trade later, the Diamondbacks agreed to give up 23-year old Dallas Buck, a righty pitcher with High-A Visalia. Buck was drafted in the third round back in 2006, but underwent Tommy John in 2007 and missed the rest of the season plus the bulk of this one as well. He began his 2008 campaign in Low-A South Bend and had made one start in Visalia thus far. As such, I love this move from Arizona’s perspective. In the deep, prospect-laden Arizona organization, Buck was never considered one of the top prospects. And coming off a major surgery, Buck had missed a great deal of development time for a pitcher his age.

On the Cincinatti side, this one’s a bit tough for me to evaluate. One could argue that they needed to get something for Dunn, who is an upcoming free-agent. However, a hitter of his stature would have probably netted a nice compensation pick or two once he signed elsewhere. So the key becomes who those two “players to be named later” are. And without knowing what kind of offers the Reds had been getting for Dunn prior to the deadline (as I’ve written here before, I’ve never quite understood why there was so little interest in him from contending teams), I don’t know what they missed out on.

But I do think that the race between Arizona and LA just got a little bit more interesting.

Well, this is shaping up to be one of the quieter trade deadlines in recent memory.  Nevertheless, as I have done every year on this blog, I’ll be here all afternoon to give you hasty reactions to each trade as they happen.  Newest trades will be on top

* * *

Boston dumps Manny Ramirez, cash on the Dodgers for Pirates OF Jason Bay.  Pirates receive Andy LaRoche, Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss

Sigh. Yet more confirmation of Ned Colletti’s severe case of big-name-itis and Frank McCourt’s mad quest to acquire as many members of the 2004 Boston Red Sox as he possibly can.  The Dodgers are weakening their defense terribly.  Manny is the worst defensive left fielder in all of baseball by virtually every measure there is.  And it is not even all that close.  The short left field in Fenway was just about the only park in the majors where he was even serviceble. Now the Dodgers have huge defensive holes at third, short, second, and left.  Not to mention the huge logjam in the Dodgers outfield being made even worse.  If the Dodgers play anything other than Manny-Kemp-Ethier most of the time, this deal doesn’t really even help anything.  But you know that Torre is going to be sorely tempted to run Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre out there as much as he possibly can.

As for Boston, this is an insanely good deal.  It is ridiculous that they got JASON BAY, who is locked up through 2009 for just Craig Hansen and Brandon Moss (and Manny).  Those are two guys they didn’t even want!

As for the Pirates, this has to be a bit of a disappointment.  LaRoche has a chance to be good, but this is not anywhere near the return you would have expected for a year and a half of Jason Bay.

Reds ship Griffey Jr to the White Sox for P Nick Masset and 2B Danny Richar

This is a pretty baffling trade for the White Sox, one which smacks of big-name-itis and favorite player obsession.  Griffey can still hit a bit, and of course both 1B Paul Konerko and CF Nick Swisher are struggling at the plate this season, so playing Griffey in center can allow Ozzie Guillen to bench one or the other with Swisher either sliding over to 1B or riding the pine, but Griffey is not *that* much of an improvement over Swisher, and playing him in center is just asking for another groin pull or hamstring tear.  Not a bad deal for the Reds though, as they get out from under Griffey’s salary and buyout to an extent (splitting them with the Sox), and they also get Masset, who is a mediocre but usable swingman, and Richar, who is only 25 and was once heralded as the future 2B of the ChiSox, and may yet become at least a handy piece of the bench or something.

Mariners trade Arthur Rhodes to the Marlins for minor league P Gaby Hernandez

Meh. The Marlins already had a pretty decent bullpen (4th in the league in bullpen ERA), so this is just adding a tiny extra piece. Plus, Arthur Rhodes is old and has only pitched 22 innings this year, so he’s likely to wear down and pitch not quite as well down the stretch. But it does let them get the ball out of Taylor Tankersley’s hands and let him try to rebuild his shattered psyche down at AAA. Gaby Hernandez is a B-grade prospect, but that is not a bad return for a Mariners squad that is always in need of pitching and which was going nowhere this year.