The emerging consensus around baseball is that former White Sox starting pitcher Jose Contreras is old and just about washed up. Certainly, his traditional stats of a 5-13 ERA and a 5.42 ERA do little to convince you otherwise.

Which is why I was shocked when I looked at Alejandro’s White Sox WAR pie and saw that Contreras has actually been the fifth most productive player on the White Sox this year, with a 2.3 WAR. Clearly some investigation was warranted.

Reports out of Colorado are that GM Dan O’Dowd’s first choice for a replacement starter was Brad Penny, but that manager Jim Tracy, who had had to deal with Penny when he managed the Dodgers, was against acquiring him, so O’Dowd was forced to fall back on Contreras as a second choice.

But looking at Contreras’s FIP this season, it is a mere 4.12, which is significantly better than Brad Penny’s 4.48 FIP when he was signed by the Giants. Indeed, looking at Contreras’s peripherals, they are all right in line with his career norms. In fact, his groundball rate is slightly up, and his line drive and home run rates are slightly down, all of which are good signs for a pitcher.

Well, actually there is one glaring exception. Contreras’s strand rate is at 56.8%, which is one of the lowest strand rates I have ever seen. So basically, Contreras is not letting all that many guys on base, but when he does, almost half of all baserunners score.

Now, some old-school baseball guys might tell you that this is a reflection on the weakness of Contreras’s character, and that he must be somehow “cracking under the pressure” when guys get on base. But given that most stats guys are convinced that strand rate is almost entirely based on luck, and that Contreras’s career mark is a much healthier 67%, a natural conclusion to draw is that the Rockies just got themselves a much better pitcher than they maybe even realized.

The Giants and the Rockies are battling it out for the National League wild card, but both teams are refusing to put their best lineup on the field.

Seth Smith is the second best hitter on the Colorado Rockies. In 251 at-bats, he has compiled a .909 OPS, and his .394 wOBA is second on the team only to Todd Helton’s .397. And yet on most nights Smith rides the pine behind obviously inferior hitters like Ryan Spilborghs and Eric Young Jr.

Fred Lewis is the second best hitter on the San Francisco Giants. In 273 AB, he has compiled a .360 OBP, and his .339 wOBA is second on the team only to Pablo Sandoval’s .395. And yet on most nights Fred Lewis rides the pine behind obviously inferior hitters like Nate Schierholtz and Eugenio Velez.

Both of these players are clearly superior to the other options at hand, at this point in the season, and both are the second best hitters on their team, and it’s not particularly close. Plus both players have the pedigree and the at-bats this season to suggest that their numbers are not just a sample size issue. Lewis’s numbers in particular are almost dead on his career marks across the board.

It’s pure foolishness for these two teams which each harbor playoff hopes to both make their second-best hitters sit in crucial stretch-run games. I can’t remember the last time I saw even one contending team do this kind of thing, let alone two.

I was going to write this big post about how insanely unbelievable it was that Joe Torre didn’t use George Sherrill (or at least Jonathan Broxton) in the 10th inning of yesterday’s opening game of a three-game set with the Colorado Rockies, but the guy over at “Mike Scioscia’s Tragic Illness” has already said everything that needs to be said about as good as it can be said:

http://mikesciosciastragicillness.com/2009/08/25/anyone-want-joe-torre.html

It’s official: the Rockies and Diamondbacks are leaving Tucson and moving to a spring training facility on an Indian reservation.

The new complex, which will feature an 11,000-seat ballpark and 12 practice fields, will be designed by HKS Architects and located in the Salt River Pima-Maricopa Indian Community. HKS also built Camelback Ranch, the new spring training home of the Dodgers and White Sox. And I’ll admit, begrudgingly, Camelback is a beautiful park.

If you live in Tucson, like I do, this is a total bummer. It’s an even bigger bummer for this guy.

The Pima County Sports and Tourism Authority is still trying to bring the Baltimore Orioles and Japanese teams to Tucson. But I’m not holding my breath.

So yeah, shades of 2007, it looks like God has taken a liking to the Colorado Rockies once more, as they are currently in the midst of a 17-1 tear.

But the single scariest thing about this whole team is not their ability to beat all comers despite being managed by Jim Tracy.

Nay, it’s the fact that Jason Marquis, of all people, is the “ace” of the staff, and that his current record is a ridiculous 9-4, which puts him on pace to win 21 games.

Yes, you read that right. Jason Marquis. Pitching half his games in Coors Field. On pace to win one score and one games this season.

Yikes. Maybe that’s not God’s doing after all. More like Satan’s.

With the season one-third gone now, it’s become pretty clear which players were only slumping and which players actually just suck at baseball. And yet on every team there is at least one player which for foolish reasons, whether it be an over-developed sense of loyalty, a case of GM-player man-love, a reputation for grit and hustle, or a bloated contract, the team just hasn’t been able to pull the plug on yet. In this post, we have a look at each team in the National League with an eye for the one player who really needs to be cut as soon as possible.

Dodgers – RP Guillermo Mota: This guy looks permanently broken: he gives up too many hits, he doesn’t strike enough guys out, and he walks too many batters. His WHIP is an appalling 1.79 and he needs to be shelved somewhere.

Giants – 1B Travis Ishikawa: The main job of a first baseman is to hit, so when your first baseman is the worst hitter on your team, you are doing something wrong.

Diamondbacks – CF Chris Young: Chris Young was supposed to be one of those guys whose power and speed would somehow make of for his complete lack of any ability to get on base.  Well, now you have a guy whose power and speed have fallen off, but who is even less able to get on base.  It is unbelievable that Young is still on pace for well over 500 at bats this season despite his .220 OBP. He needs to be working out his suckiness in the minor leagues.

Rockies – 3B Garret Atkins: I’ve been advocating that the Rockies trade Atkins for two years now, while there was still some perception that he was a good player, but they waited too long, and now he’s basically untradeable. Few players have benefited more from Coors Field than Atkins, and Atkins also had the benefit of his personal peak coinciding with the Rockies high profile Series run in 2007. But he was always an extremely inadequate defender at third, and now his bat has disappeared as well, even at home.

Padres – 2B David Eckstein: GM Kevin Towers calls David Eckstein the MVP of the team so far this year. He couldn’t be more wrong. Eckstein was only barely adequate defensively and offensively when he was at his peak about 5 or 6 years ago, and now at age 34, he’s pretty much got nothing left.

Cardinals – SP Todd Wellemeyer: Todd Wellemeyer shows that maybe there are limits to what pitching coach Dave Duncan can do. Kind of. Actually, it’s pretty amazing that the Cardinals have gotten as much out of Wellemeyer as they have, considering he was nobody’s idea of good starting pitcher material. But with Mitchell Boggs waiting in the wings, there’s really no reason to keep Wellemeyer around.

Brewers – 3B Bill Hall: Bill Hall couldn’t hit his way out of a paper bag right now. Sure, he hit 35 homers back in 2006, but he’s done nothing at all since then, and he still has no real position defensively. For some reason, Hall still has the image of a youngster who is still developing, but when you actually go look at his age you find out he is already 29 years old, and what you see, which right now is total suckage, is probably what he really is.

Cubs – RP Aaron Heilman: Heilman was once a highly touted prospect, and did manage to throw up a few good seasons, but it’s becoming more and more clear that he’s just not all that good. Nothing about his peripherals suggests that anything is particularly wrong. His velocity is the same as ever, as are his FB/GB rates, his home run rate, his K/9 rate etc., and his BABIP is a very modest .299. Heilman simply walks too many batters, posting an unsightly 6.26 BB/9, and until that changes (if ever), he needs to be in AAA somewhere until he can learn better control.

Reds – SS Alex Gonzalez: Gonzalez was once an elite defender at shortstop, which meant that his extremely weak bat could be somewhat justified, but now he is no longer anywhere near that class, and his bat seems weaker than ever at .209/.250/.302. He needs to be cut.

Erstad is still playing?

Astros – OF Darin Erstad: Yeah, I know, Erstad is supposed to be this super-gritty former football player (except he was only a kicker), but we are a decade removed now from his last actually good season in 2000, and I’m almost surprised to see that he is actually still on a major league roster. He’s hitting .137/.211/.196.  Why is this man still anywhere near a baseball diamond?

Pirates – OF Brandon Moss: Lots of people have mentioned how one good side of trading away Nate McLouth was that it has “cleared playing time for blocked prospect Andrew McCutchen.”  But hardly anyone mentions that one of the players who was allegedly “blocking” McCutchen is Brandon Moss, a corner outfielder who has been playing every day this season despite posting a .310 OBP and only a single home run.

Marlins – 3B Emilio Bonifacio: The fact that Emilio Bonifacio, who has no business being in a major league lineup at all, is actually batting leadoff for the Marlins, despite his .294 OBP, is an indictment of the entire Marlins coaching staff and front office.

Bonifacio whiffs again

Mets – C Omir Santos: It’s a joke that the Mets actually traded away Ramon Castro to clear a spot on the roster for this guy. It’s going to be fun watching as the numbers left over from his fluky hot start rapidly sink toward the Mendoza line.

Braves – OF Garrett Anderson: I laughed out loud when I heard that the Braves signed Anderson in the offseason, and I pretty much haven’t stopped laughing since.  The poor old guy has a .289 OBP to go along with a -15 UZR/150 in left field. At this point you could probably drag Bernie Williams out of the recording studio and run him out there for better production.

Nationals – CL Joel Hanrahan: You can anoint a guy your closer, sing the praises of his “live arm,” and run him out there in save situations as much as you want, but that doesn’t mean he is going to pitch like a closer, just because you really really want him to. In what may be the worst bullpen of all time, no reliever has done more damage in more high leverage situations than Hanrahan. His 1.90 WHIP (for an alleged closer!) pretty much says it all.

Phillies – P Chan Ho Park: Park has looked finished for years now, at least when you look at his peripherals. He managed to reinvent himself as a serviceable reliever in the pitcher-friendly NL West last season, fooling the Phillies into taking him on, but it’s kind of an understatement to say that his game does not play well in Citizen’s Bank Ballpark. The Park-as-starter experiment was basically doomed from the get-go, but ironically, Park has pitched even more poorly this year as a reliever than he did as a starter. This man should be enjoying his retirement somewhere, not getting thrown to the wolves every other night.

Matt Holliday has hit two home runs the last three days. So maybe he’s about to go on a tear and what follows is a gross overreaction on my part. Wouldn’t be the first time.

But the Rockies offered Holliday a four-year, $80 million contract at the conclusion of the 2008 season, and I want to say, on the record: Matt, dude, you shoulda taken the money.

Over the last three seasons Holliday averaged 32 HR, 113 RBI, a .330 batting avg., and an OBP around .400. Oh, and last year he swiped 28 bags and only got caught twice. Fangraphs says Holliday was worth $28MM in 2008, $32MM in 2007, and $16MM in 2006. As Stuart Scott might say, that’s big pimpin.

In the first month of 2009, Holliday is hitting .253 with 2 home run and no stolen bases. He’s got a putrid .303 OBP. As Ernest might say: Ewwwwwwwwww.

The other day Dan Szymborski released an updated ZIPS projection that accounts for April data. Zips estimates Holliday will finish 2009 with the following stats: 21 HR, .285 AVG, .361 OBP, 87 RBI and 12 stolen bases. Obviously, these revised projections represent a pretty serious drop from his career averages.

What’s that worth?

Hard to say, exactly. But last season Torii Hunter (21 HR, .278 AVG, .344 OBP, 78 RBI and 19 stolen bases) put together a line similar to what Holliday is projected to hit in 2009 and Fangraphs says it was worth $16MM. (It’s true Hunter and Holliday are different players, especially defensively, but Hunter’s combination of what is now below average defense at a more difficult position is actually valued similarly to Holliday’s above-average defense in left field.)

Is it likely a team is going to pay Holliday $20MM a year if he has a 2009 worth $16-$18MM? No.

Is it likely a team will give Holliday an eight-year contract when he’s already passed his peak and guys like Pat Burrell and Adam Dunn weren’t able to get more than two years this winter? No.

If Holliday thinks he’s going to get an eight-year deal in the neighborhood of $160MM…well, a word of advice: start hacking, Matt.

The 2008 Rockies led the NL West in runs scored.

They led the NL West in home runs.

They led the NL West in SLG.

They led the NL West in OBP.

But they finished a distant third in the NL West.

Anyone want to guess why?

If you said pitching, or lack thereof, you’re correct!

The 2008 Rockies were next to last in the NL in ERA, ahead of only the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. To address their pitching woes, the Rockies traded for Cubs SP Jason Marquis, who is the dictionary definition of average. The Cubs are expected to eat around $1 million on Marquis’ contract, leaving the Rockies to pay approximately $5 million for one season of the right-hander. And while it’s hard to get excited about a league average pitcher, Rockies fans should know that they’re getting a pretty good deal on Marquis.

More good news for the Rockies pitching staff: the team recently signed SP Ubaldo Jimenez to a contract extension that covers his arbitration years and one free agent year. Ubaldo also came cheap.

Rounding out the Rockies staff is Aaron Cook, who somehow managed to win 16 games last season and keep his ERA under 4.00 despite striking out fewer than one batter every two innings. How’d he do it? A lot of ground balls, that’s how. Only Derek Lowe and Brandon Webb had a better GB/FB ratio.

There’s also Greg Smith, who came over to the Rockies in the Matt Holliday trade (more on that later) and was among the AL ERA leaders in the first half of 2008, before coming back down to earth in the second half. Smith has limited power but good control and uses four pitches to retire batters. He probably isn’t the dominant pitcher he looked like in the first half of 2008, but it’ll probably take NL batters a few months to figure him out, just as it took AL batters a few months last season.

Unfortunately, it’s not all good news for Rockies fans. Jeff Francis’ shoulder still hurts and he says rehab is “slow going at best.” Not what you want to hear. During the first week of January, Francis underwent a magnetic resonance imaging exam, which revealed nothing in the way of damage to his shoulder. But clearly something is wrong. As insurance, the Rockies recently offered a minor league contract to Josh Fogg. He’s mulling the offer.

How about the offense? Colorado traded Holliday to Oakland for Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, and Huston Street. Gonzalez will compete for a roster spot in spring training but making the team is far from certain. He hit just .242 with four homers and 26 RBI in 302 at-bats as a rookie. He wasn’t that impressive in Triple-A either, hitting .283 with four home runs and a .760 OPS. Gonzalez needs to walk more and strikeout less.

Another leftfield possibility is Seth Smith, who OBP’d .350 in limited action in 2008. Meanwhile, Scott Podsednik will battle Ryan Spilborghs for the CF job, but Spilborghs has the inside track after hitting .313 in 2008, albeit in on 233 at bats. Right field surely will go to Brad Hawpe.

The Rockies tried and failed to trade Garrett Atkins this offseason, so he’ll return to play third base, where he’s pretty atrocious with the glove. Or, if Todd Helton’s back problems aren’t cleared up, Atkins can play first. If both Atkins and Helton are healthy, stud prospect Ian Stewart could play second base. Or he’s another left field option.

Additions: Huston Street, Greg Smith, Carlos Gonzalez, Jason Marquis, Alan Embree.

Losses: Matt Holliday, Brian Fuentes, Willy Taveras, Luis Vizcaino.

Projected Lineup, Rotation, and Closer:

CF Ryan Spilborghs
2B Ian Stewart
1B Todd Helton
3B Garrett Atkins
RF Brad Hawpe
LF Carlos Gonzalez
C Craig Iannetta
SS Troy Tulowitzki

SP1 Aaron Cook
SP2 Ubaldo Jimenez
SP2 Jeff Francis
SP4 Greg Smith
SP5 Jason Marquis

CL Huston Street/Manny Corpas

It’s hard to imagine the Rockies can win the NL West with a pitching staff that at best can be described as average. Then again, the NL West is a below-average division. Colorado will need a lot to go right in 2009: Helton will need to be healthy, Stewart will need to be a quick study at second base, and Jimenez will need to take another leap forward in his maturation process. But even if the Rockies don’t win the division in 2009, they’ve at least put themselves in a position to be competitive while focusing on getting younger.

Offseason Grade: B

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