After their lightning-in-a-bottle season in 2007 in which a 21-1 streak took them all the way to the World Series, the Rockies decided their team was much better than it actually was a and stood pat.  The results were highly predictable, as the Rockies crashed down to earth in 2008, falling 14 games below .500 on the season.

Of course it is true that the Rockies were hurt by some injuries to key players like Troy Tulowitzki, Jeff Francis, and Todd Helton, but the main problem was that the Rockies management had overestimated their core level of talent.

It’s been said before, but the Rockies of 2007 had an entirely undeserved aura of being a “young” team, when in fact they were just a team of relative unknowns, but were actually mostly in their peak years.  The idea that the Rockies would be an NL West power for many years to come was thus misguided from the outset, as most of these players were set to enter their post-peak years in which production could not reasonably be expected to do anything other than decline.

In other words, what the Rockies *should* have done after their glorious 2007 was to trade off a lot of their older pieces for younger talent while their value was still sky-high, but of course they instead fell into the common trap of World Series teams of trying to keep all of their players.

However, although the Rockies players have lost a good bit of their luster in the ensuing year, the good news is that it should still be possible to get a decent return for some of them, while everyone still remembers the 2007 run.

Although certainly not what they could have gotten for him a year ago, the Rockies did get a pretty reasonable return on one year of Matt Holiday from the offense-hungry A’s. Carlos Gonzalez is still a very good prospect, and Greg Smith may not be quite as good as the Rockies think he is, but part of winning at Coors is just getting fresh bodies with live arms to throw out their and eat up innings in the never-ending war of attrition with the thin air.

What the Rockies need to do now is keep trading away chips that have perceived value.  They should start out with Garret Atkins, who was always overrated at the plate, with GIGANTIC home/road splits, and was never a good defender anywhere on the diamond. Even more than Holliday, Atkins should have been traded off as soon as the 2007 World Series ended, but he still retains some aura from that run, and should be shipped out of town while he still has any perceived value left around the league. Ian Stewart will be a more than adequate replacement at third.

The Rockies should then look at trading Yorvit Torrealba, who is still highly regarded but made redundant by the arrival of the superior Chris Ianetta, as well as possibly the arbitration-eligible Clint Barmes and Willy Taveras. As always, they should try to cash in these chips for as much pitching as they can get, and maybe another outfield prospect if they opt to trade Taveras.

The Rockies are actually not that far away from contention in a weak NL West.  It’s just that they need to learn and absorb the valuable lesson that to stay on top in the major leagues of today, you can’t rest on your laurels - you have to be constantly adapting, adjusting, and upgrading whereever possible, because the other teams are not going to stop upgrading.  Trading away Matt Holliday was a bold step in this direction, and a sign that the Rockies are aware of this lesson.  They shouldn’t stop now.

– What They Need Index –

Certain English colloquialisms befuddle me. Included among them is the idea of “throwing things against the wall and seeing what sticks”. Why would you want to do this? Why are things that stick to walls good? Pretty much everything I love will do no such thing. A baseball. A steak. “Bull Durham”. Zooey Deschanel. This IO Digital Cable commercial. None of these things will stick to a wall and would actually concern me if they somehow did.

But this mindset really is the only possible explanation for this: The Colorado Rockies claimed pitcher Livan Hernandez off waivers and designated Kip Wells for assignment.

Make no mistake. Wells hasn’t been a very effective pitcher for years, evidenced by his career 4.64 ERA. But really, neither has Livan. And this year, that’s a total understatement. If you read Rob Neyer’s blog (subscription only) over at ESPN regularly, you probably already know that Hernandez is currently on pace to make some history. So far in 2008, he has allowed 206 hits in 142 1/3 innings pitched. That’s 1.45 hits allowed per inning and over 13 hits allowed per nine innings pitched. At this rate, Livan is going to hold the #2 spot on the list on the most hits/9IP in a single season in which the player has thrown enough innings to qualify for the ERA title, beating out Ray Benge’s abysmal 1936 season. While he (for his sake, hopefully) won’t catch Les Sweetland’s 14.6 hits/9IP mark set in 1930, Livan has easily been the most hittable pitcher in baseball. To make matters worse, he’s now averaging only 3.3 strikeouts per nine, which actually makes Carlos Silva’s K-Rate appear astronimically larger.

So what exactly makes the Rockies front office think that he’d do a better job than Wells? I really don’t know the answer, except to assume that a) Livan Hernandez is a recognizable name who has had success in the past and b) they’re hoping he sticks. But I often am against making roster changes just for the hell of it, and this seems like such a case.

I know this seems like I’m trying to kick a team that’s down and it’s really not an intended consequence. The Rockies are 8 games out in the very mediocre NL West and it appears that every starter in AAA Colorado Springs is doing his best to NOT get his shot at a big league rotation. So it’s not like they’re blocking any deserving pitchers and someone has to pitch or else there’s no game. Plus, they’re hardly the first front office ever to do something like this. I suppose I’m just curious as to why they felt that this was the way to go. Do they think that Livan Hernandez will do a better job than Kip Wells? Or are they just hoping that he does?

You know what they say. One man’s trash is another man’s 24-K gold iPhone .

The easy thing to say when considering “what the Rockies need” is to make a snarky faith joke. But readers, I won’t do that to you or our site. Because we all know that you’ve come to expect much more high-browed, intellectually stimulating commentary from us UmpBump writers. And by jove, that’s what you’re going to get.

Poop.

Anyhow, when writing Colorado’s “Hot Offseason Action” post back in February, I wondered to myself if I was being too rough on these guys. Turns out, they’ve been worse that I thought they’d be. The Rockies have a mediocre offense to go along with sub-par pitching. Put those together and the results are rarely pretty.

Consequently, the Rockies are currently 6 games out in the NL West (which I’m thinking is pretty difficult to do) and 13 games under .500. And something tells me that their incredible run to close out the 2007 regular season is not going to repeat itself this year. Why? Because you can only beat “improbable” so many times.

So unless the Diamondbacks and the Dodgers tank big time between now and the trade deadline, the Rockies should be dealing some pieces. And no, I am not going to advocate dealing Matt Holliday. Not this year, anyway. Holliday is still under contract in 2009, albeit at a higher price. If the Rockies have no shot in hell of winning the division next year, then by all means, please do trade him away. But that’s not the case here. With some maneuvering, they could still compete in 2009. And here’s my suggestion.

FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, TRADE GARRETT ATKINS AND PLAY IAN STEWART AT THIRD ALREADY.

This of course is not a novel idea. It’s been said and argued ad nauseum for over a year. It just hasn’t happened yet. And just because it’s been said but ignored, it doesn’t mean it’s a bad idea. At this juncture, there are a couple of teams vying for the playoffs (Milwaukee and Minnesota) who could use offensive help at third. It’s clear that Stewart has earned a shot to be a big league regular. It just makes perfect sense. As a result of the injury to Todd Helton, Stewart was recalled from AAA this past week with Atkins moving to first for the time being, which is all well and good. But what happens when Helton returns? Move Ian Stewart to second base permanently? This seems like an odd thing to do to a young player. And so far this year, Jeff Baker is doing a better job of hitting righties so he might be their solution at second.

The Rockies do, however, need another starting pitcher if they are to compete in 2009. Ubaldo Jimenez and Aaron Cook are solid, and Jeff Francis has been better than his ERA suggests. But Jorge de la Rosa, Greg Reynolds, and Mark Redman have been disasters. Sure, it’s possible that Franklin Morales becomes a solution, but it’s not like the guy’s dominating AAA. How about something like Atkins for Boof Bonser and a B-Prospect? Or Atkins for Carlos Villanueva and a B? Teams like the Rockies really need to maximize the value of each dollar they spend. Continually blocking your best prospect just doesn’t make much sense at this point.

- What They Need Index -

Yesterday afternoon my girlfriend Suz and I went to watch the Mexican National Team play the Colorado Rockies at Hi Corbett Field in Tucson.

Mexico won 2-1. It was the second time in three days that the Rockies squared off against Mexico. Two days earlier the Rockies won 15-2. Fortunately for Mexico, today’s game was a split squad game for Colorado, so the Rox were without loyal Umpbump reader Troy Tulowitzki and a few other key regulars.

Rockies players who did play today included Matt Holliday, Willy Taveras, Brad Hawpe and Todd Helton. Jeff Francis started the game for the Rox. I didn’t recognize any of the Mexican players.

We sat right in the middle of the Mexican fans, behind Mexico’s dugout. I don’t speak Spanish so I missed the meaning behind a ton of heckling. The guys sitting right behind us were drinking Coors Lights and having a blast. Every minute or so a guy in sunglasses and a camouflage hat would shout something and the fans on our side of the stadium would snicker.

At one point, Suz turned to me and said:

“I think I’m losing the hearing in my right ear.”

“What?” I asked.”

“I think I’m losing the hearing in my right ear,” she repeated.

“I can’t hear you,” I said. “The fans behind you are too loud. What did you say?”

“I said I think I’m losing the hearing in my right ear,” she said.

“Oh,” I said. “Yeah.”

As I was leaving the game, the guy in the camouflage hat excitedly high-fived me. I asked him what he had been shouting and he explained to me that he was taunting Mexico’s third base coach, who stands about ten feet to the right of the batters circle, rather than stand in the coach’s box.

“We don’t like him,” he said. “He never stands where he’s supposed to stand. And he blocks our view.”

Other highlights from the game:

• In the fourth inning, the game stopped for a few minutes when strong winds blew dirt from the field into the stands. After the wind died down, everybody in the first ten rows behind home plate stood up and dusted themselves off. Then the game resumed.
• Former Rockies 3B and former Mexican National Team manager Vinny Castilla came out to coach third in the bottom of the ninth inning and got a big standing ovation. I’m pretty sure Vinny could get elected president in Mexico if he were to run.
• A ball hit by one of the Mexico players appeared to clear the left field fence, but was later ruled a ground rule double, much to the dismay of the fans (Note: when Mexico fans disagree with an ump’s call, they whistle. I’d like to see Philly fans give that a try.)
• Throughout the game, kids and adults tossed hats, shirts and balls over the fence to the players in the Mexico dugout. Without fail, the Mexican players signed the items and tossed them back. Very cool.

All in all, it was a great afternoon. And the lesson, as always, is that Mexican fans are the best. Well, except for maybe Japanese fans.

Oh, one last thing…

This season, MLB has decided that first and third base coaches need to wear helmets (much to Larry Bowa’s dismay). But during spring training games, coaches continue to sit in folding chairs set up adjacent to the dugout, with nothing in between them and the hitters. Is it me, or is that a little inconsistent?

UPDATE: For a slideshow of images of one of the Mexico pitchers warming up in the bullpen, click here. For more pics from yesterday’s game, click here.

I live in Tucson. Today and tomorrow in Tucson are “Rodeo days.” All the kids have off from school for the Tucson Rodeo so they can enjoy a long weekend of nonstop riding, roping and wrangling.

Today, there was also a parade. And not just any parade. The Rodeo Parade is the nation’s largest non-motorized parade. And, as luck would have it, the parade starts right in front of the building where I work. So I wasn’t able to get to work until afternoon.

So what did I do this morning, instead of going to work? I went to spring training, of course!

The Colorado Rockies hold spring training at High Corbett Field, which is located inside a public park that also features a gold course and a zoo. I walked down to the facility and watched as the Rockies players took batting and fielding practice. The weather was about 75 degrees and sunny.I talked to Rockies president Keli McGregor, who was quoted this morning in the local paper saying he hoped the Rockies could stay in Tucson, even though the White Sox are angling to skip town.

Here’s what McGregor told the AZ Daily Star:

“Two teams is not ideal,” he said. “I’d like to think we would have three teams with an eventual expansion to four or five.” One possibility is that the Reds could replace the White Sox in Tucson.

McGregor told me it was too early to speculate about the Reds coming to Tucson, but that the city seems eager to find a way to keep spring training here. I thanked him for taking the time and gave him a handful of Umpbump stickers.

That’s right, Umpbump has stickers. We had them printed up over a year ago and haven’t done much with them since (though I did stick them all over the subway stations in Manhattan).

Two more people who got Umpbump stickers were baseball card collectors Larry (who didn’t give me his last name) and Jon Hanford. Larry, who is from Huntsville, Ala., says he got his first baseball card in 1950 — an Elmer Valo. He says he owns over 115,000 signed cards and over 2 million total.

Hanford was at spring training with his dad. He is a high school senior and is hoping to attend Hofstra in the fall. He says he wrote his college admissions essay about card collecting. He says he and his dad got to Phoenix on Tuesday and their trip got off to a good start.

“We were getting the rental car at Hertz and we ran into Juan Rivera,” he said. “I had my cards with me so I got him to sign it. He’s generally pretty tough to get, and the Angels are the least fan friendly team when it comes to getting autographs.”

Hanford says he started collecting baseball cards in 2000 and starting collecting autographs a couple of years later. He says he has about 1,000 autographed cards and over 12,000 total cards. He says he enjoys “the thrill of the chase.” Today he got autographs from Marcus Giles, Garrett Atkins and Brian Fuentes. And he got a free Umpbump sticker.

One of the Rockies players walked away with an Umpbump sticker, too. I noticed Troy Tulowitzki leaning up against an outfield fence, having a conversation with one of the other players (they were talking about a new bat they had tried out in batting practice — a B45). So I went up to say hi. I wasn’t sure if I should address Tulowitzki as “Troy” or “Tulo.” Everybody else was calling him Tulo.

“Troy,” I said. “Can I give you something?”

He stared at me. “Okay,” he said.

“I’m a big fan,” I said. (That’s not 100 percent true, but not a total lie.) “I write for a baseball website called Umpbump.com. This is one of our stickers. Check us out sometime. And good luck this season.”

He stared at me some more. Then he stared at the sticker. I started to walk away.

“Umm…thanks,” he said.

“You’re welcome!” I said.

And he was.

This is one of a series of posts in which we grade each team’s wily hot stove maneuvers and tragic offseason blunders.

There’s a strange difficulty that comes with success. After the 2007 Colorado Rockies finished their improbable run to the World Series, the team brass had a decision to make: should they concentrate on adding talent or would that simply be meddling with something that needed no such help?

For better or worse, the Rockies took the latter road. In an offseason generally devoid of help via the free agent market, GM Dan O’Dowd simply went about his business signing his young stars Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki to contract extensions but not much else of note. They lost Jeremy Affeldt, Kaz Matsui, Josh Fogg, Rodrigo Lopez and LaTroy Hawkins to free agency and “added” Josh Towers, Luis Vizacino and Kip Wells. They also struck a deal in early December to acquire Jose Capellan for Jamey Carroll and Denny Bautista. As you can probably tell, none of these were exactly earth shattering moves. But let’s see if there’s something that Colorado overlooked and failed to address.

One thing I love about baseball is the fact that there’s really no limitation on the size of the playing field. As such, we get interesting parks like Coors Field - a place that has become synonymous with the entire franchise. In its brief history, Coors has made good hitters seem great and demolished the ERAs of many pitchers. Although its reputation nowadays is a bit overstated, it still remains a place that favors hitters quite a bit.

To get a clear sense of what we’re talking about here, the chart to the right (yes, me and my charts. Deal with it.) shows the home-road splits of the 2007 Colorado Rockies. Keep in mind that the Rockies ended up playing 163 games - 82 of them at home - in 2007 because of the one-game tie breaker. Anyhow, as you would expect, the Rockies offense did far better at home than not. A portion of the difference in AVG, OBP and SLG can be attributed to the 35 extra home runs that the Rockies hit at Coors, but that’s only part of the explanation. Colorado hit 51 more singles at home than away as well.

What about the pitchers? Well, see for yourself. Would you believe it if it weren’t true? Colorado pitchers gave up 82 homeruns at Coors in 2007. They also gave up 82 homeruns away from Coors. So figuring that one extra game they had at home, they ended up averaging fewer homeruns in the thin Denver air. Consequently, there was very little difference in the ERA splits. Rockies pitchers were the real deal in 2007.

So now that we have this information, we can pretty much see the team for who they are (i.e. away from the inflated stats of Coors). Their offense had a decent amount of guys who could get on base but ultimately lacked some serious pop, as evidenced by their road slugging percentage. Only the Giants and D-Backs posted worse on the road. Which is kind of odd if you think about it. When we think of the Rockies, we think of guys like Holliday, Tulowitzki, Atkins and Hawpe. As for pitchers… Well… They have Jeff Francis. He’s pretty good. Right? While I expect that their pitching numbers will overall regress a bit in 2008, it’s really the offense that I think they should have been concerned with. Matt Holliday had a career year. After a slow start, Atkins came on very strong during and after June. They learned that they had a shortstop who may already be ready to compete for the crown of the best in the NL. Despite all of this, they still posted lackluster numbers (relatively speaking with Coors in mind) in the power department.

In 2007, the Rockies had Willy Taveras, Kaz Matsui, and Yorvit Torrealba in their every day lineup. All three failed to slug over .400 away from Denver. In fact, so did Tulo (It’s true. Look it up). If you include the pitcher, that’s over half their batting order that didn’t have the muscle to contribute very much in the slugging department. In 2008, all they will have changed is that Matsui will be replaced by some combination of Marcus Giles, Ian Stewart, and rookie Jayson Nix. And signing Scott Podsednik sure isn’t going to help either.

Additions: Marcus Giles, Luiz Vizcaino, Kip Wells, Josh Towers, Jose Capellan

Losses: Kaz Matsui, Jeremy Affeldt, Josh Fogg, Rodrigo Lopez, LaTroy Hawkins, Jamey Carroll, Denny Bautista

Batting Order:

1. Willy Taveras - CF

2. Troy Tulowitzki - SS

3. Matt Holliday - LF

4. Todd Helton - 1B

5. Garrett Atkins - 3B

6. Brad Hawpe - RF

7. Nix/Giles/Stewart - 2B

8. Yorvit Torrealba - C

Rotation:

1. Jeff Francis

2. Aaron Cook

3. Ubaldo Jimenez

4. Franklin Morales

5. Jason Hirsch/Josh Towers

Bullpen:

CL: Manny Corpas

SU: Brian Fuentes

Offseason Grade: C–

I think it’s fair to say that I’m not putting much (and maybe, not enough) stock in what they accomplished in September and October. But what they had accomplished at the end of last season was improbable and you’d be very hard pressed to think that they’d be able to do it again. To me, this looks like a third place team behind Arizona and Los Angeles. I am no fan of Willy Taveras; he had a .370 BABiP last year and when that goes down, so will his OBP and any value his speed brings to the table. I still like Todd Helton, but I completely expect Matt Holliday to regress a bit. Will Tulo grow up fast enough to help fill that gap? Even if so, did their offense improve? I don’t think it did. I understand why the club thought it would be best to stand pat. One thing they are doing is replacing Rodrigo Lopez and Josh Fogg with some younger (and probably more talented) arms, and that’s something that Rockies fans have to look forward to. But I don’t see this team as being able to repeat as NL Champs.

- Hot Offseason Action Index -

San Diego Padres - a left fielder

To say left field was a revolving door for the Friars last season would be generous. It was more like there was no door at all, and anyone could just walk through and play. After trying all manner of flotsam there last year, including castoffs like Jose Cruz, Jr., Paul McAnulty, Russ Branyan, Terrmel Sledge, Rob Mackowiak, the Padres have still not found a solution.

Although Scott Hairston did hit like a man on fire after coming over from the D-Backs in a late season trade (.981 OPS in 87 AB), and is the putative starter if the season were to start today, before coming to the Pads he had an awful .659 OPS in 176 at-bats with the Snakes, so it’s hard to have any confidence in him.

Another reason it would be useful for the Padres to add at least one more capable player to their outfield mix is that their starting centerfielder is the aging and injury prone Jim Edmonds, who is highly unlikely to make it through a whole season without several trips to the DL.

Arizona Diamondbacks - a fourth outfielder

After an offseason in which they did just about everything right, the team’s only discernable hole is in the outfield. The Snakes seem committed to going with youngster Justin Upton as their everyday rightfielder, despite his unsightly .221/.283/.364 line last season. But now that Arizona has traded away its two best outfield prospects in Carlos Quentin and Carlos Gonzalez, if Upton falters or if either of the other two guys go down for any extended period, the D-Backs’ only replacement option off the bench is some 28-year-old 4-A dude named Jeff Salazar, a guy who nobody would want to see playing in the outfield every day.

Colorado Rockies - a left-handed reliever

Like the Diamondbacks, the Rockies are another team with very few holes left, having fulfilled their promise to the fans to return last year’s World Series squad virtually intact. They did “lose” Kazuo Matsui to the Astros, but that may well be a blessing, as it opens up a spot for top infield prospect and purported defensive wizard Jayson Nix, and even if Nix falters, the Rocks still have several other options to choose from at the keystone, including prospects Omar Quintanilla, Jeff Baker, and Ian Stewart, and former Braves star Marcus Giles, whom they just inked to a minor-league deal.

The Rockies are set to turn over half their bullpen, however, with LaTroy Hawkins having already bolted for the Yankees and free agents Jorge Julio and Jeremy Affeldt set to depart as well. Although the Rockies were able to sign Luis Vizcaino to fill Hawkins’ shoes, they probably need to sign at least one more reliever, especially a left-hander to fill the situational lefty role Affeldt handled last season, as they have no particularly appealing internal options to replace him.

Los Angeles Dodgers - continue resisting the temptation to trade away their young guns

A good argument could be made that the Dodgers could have improved their team dramatically by making no moves whatsoever this offseason, and just letting their highly touted, major-league ready prospects have a chance to show what they can do.

Of course, Ned Colletti being Ned Colletti, he had to go out and sign at least a few big names, giving fairly outrageous contracts to outfielder Andrew Jones and Japanese import Hiroki Kuroda. But so far he has resisted the deluge of trade offers for coveted young players like Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, and James Loney, and if he can keep on resisting those offers, as well as the temptation to block them any further with free agent signings, the Dodgers should be in pretty good shape to make a run at the playoffs this season.

San Francisco Giants - EVERYTHING

Here is a short list of the things the Giants need: a first baseman, a second baseman, a third baseman, a starting pitcher, a closer, and three other relievers of any ability. Outside of the outfield (Rowand, Roberts, Randy Winn), and the young arms in the rotation (Cain, Lowry, Lincecum), this team is going to be absolutely terrible, and they have no promising prospects of any real note on the way either. The Giants are well nigh a stone cold lock to have the worst offense in the National League this year.

Via Mudville.

Colorado’s Rookie League team in Casper, Wyoming, has changed its name.

The Casper Rockies are now the Casper Ghosts.

If you’re worried that Casper, who is a friendly ghost, isn’t tough enough to instill fear in opponents, don’t. The team has placed menacing looking ghosts on its caps. And better yet, the ghost emblems glow in the dark. Truly awesome.

I’m not sure how I feel about the Casper name change. But I suppose there are some towns that just demand certain names (see: Macon Whoopee). The ghosts were, I suspect, inevitable. Are the Butte (Idaho) Pirates next?