It’s been a wild few weeks in Boston Red Sox-land, with Boston axing Mark Kotsay and his beautiful wife Jamie in favor of Adam LaRoche, the steroid revelations about David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez, and the fevered speculation over whether Theo Epstein could — or would — swing a trade for Roy Halladay.

The dust is now at least starting to clear (at least, until Michael Vick signs with the Patriots, but that’s another story). Today, Boston gave up on acquiring Roy Halladay, went after Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez but then gave up on him, too, after Kevin Towers asked for the moon, and ultimately acquired Cleveland’s Victor Martinez (who can play first, catch, and DH) for reliever Justin Masterson and pitching prospect Nick Hagadone, as well as pitcher Bryan Price. This made the newly acquired LaRoche expendable, so Boston swapped him with the Braves for Casey Kotchman.

MLBTR said of the Martinez trade, “Gut reaction: nice haul.” From this I presume they meant that the Indians got a nice haul for Martinez (and this before Price was known to be part of the deal) but my reaction was, not so fast. I think this is a great deal for Boston. They get a versatile player in the switch-hitting Martinez, who is still only and beefs up their flailing offense. They deal a sidearm reliever who seems due to be figured out by opposing hitters and a high-ceiling pitching prospect returning from Tommy John surgery. Yes, Hagadone strikes out a ton of batters (11.7 K/9 over parts of three seasons) but he’s only started 23 games. He’s never pitched above the Sally League. And he throws a lot of walks: a 5.0 BB/9 in low-A this year. I know the Red Sox were high on him, but baseball is littered with high-ceiling prospects who just didn’t work out. This deal not only helps the Red Sox this year, but it helps them next year, too, as it will let them kick their dire catching problem down the road if they have to.

Price is sort of the mystery-man in this deal: a 6′4″, 210-lb righty who’s been pitching for high-A Salem. He was a 1st round (45th overall) pick in the 2008 draft. He’s 1 and 6 in Salem with a 6.54 ERA, but he also strikes out a lot of hitters. In 8 games for the low-A Greenville Drive, he went 3-2 with a 2.45 ERA, and had a more impressive season in his pro debut last year, where he struck out 43 and walked 10 in 12 games.

In the end, despite the urge to pronounce “winners” and “losers” (as Sports Illustrated writers were doing on Twitter within moments of the deadline closing) this may be one of those trades that is a good deal for both teams involved. However, it seems to this observer that the Red Sox managed to buy low on Martinez, who has been slumping, and sell high on Masterson, who got all kinds of good press last season after an impressive MLB debut, but who posted a 5.73 ERA in July.

The Kotchman/LaRoche deal is another smart move by Boston. As a Beantowner, I didn’t really understand why Boston dumped Kotsay for LaRoche in the first place. (While LaRoche is a modest offensive upgrade, Kotsay could play outfield and infield, and was solid defensively.) So I’m glad to see the back of LaRoche, and glad to welcome the defensively skilled Casey Kotchman to Boston. A week or so ago, when I was writing about the alleged struggles of Jon Lester for the Metro, Boston ranked 28th in defensive efficiency. Today, they actually rank dead last — 30th. If Kotchman can sub in as needed for the defensively challenged Martinez and allow Kevin Youkilis to slide over to third, that should materially improve Boston’s defense. No, Youk’s -2.2 UZR at third isn’t great, but it’s substantially better than Mike Lowell’s -9.0 rating. Plus, if Big Papi suddenly loses his steroids power stroke again, Lowell can just DH.

The way I see it, Boston addressed their two biggest challenges: a struggling offense and an execrable defense. And they did it for a fraction of what Roy Halladay would have cost.

So, yes…if I actually ever updated my Twitter feed, I suppose I’d declare them trade deadline winners too.

Man, Buster Olney has been strongly advocating that the Phillies trade for Roy Hallady. I mean, he’s really pushing for it. You’d think he was a Phillies fan. Or maybe he has money riding on this or something?

Today, Olney gives us not one, not two, but eight reasons the Phils should acquire the Toronto ace. I’d like to take issue with this one:

Halladay could help make Hamels even better than he is. Halladay’s workout regimen is legendary, and you hear stories from guys who played with the Blue Jays about how Halladay’s approach rubbed off on them. He was a constant reminder to them of how they could be better, both in their preparation and in their conditioning, and even in how they would conduct themselves.

That reason implies that Hamels could stand to improve his conditioning. But I’d like point you to a post I did before the 2008 season, which linked to a story in the Philadelphia Inquirer about Hamels’ daily routine. From the Inky:

Hamels does his back program seven days a week and he’s obsessive about it. It lasts about two hours, though he may shorten it during the season. In a typical day, Hamels does 500 crunches. (No wonder his body fat is a minuscule 6 percent.) When he’s done working on his back, he moves to the baseball portion of his day and finishes with an ice bath.

“I’ll look in the mirror before bed and ask myself, ‘Did I do all I can do?’ ” Hamels said. “I’ll do 500 crunches and wonder if it’s enough. I feel guilty if I don’t feel like I’ve done enough. I get paranoid.”

500 crunches. Two hours of back exercises. 6 percent body fat.

Maybe Halladay would be good for the Phillies (how could he not be?). But I’d say Hamels’ fitness is not an issue.

Jon Heyman Tweets:

halladay preferences (according to pal): 1. win. 2. quiet. 3. spring in fla.; thinks he’d OK Phil, Stl, NY, Bos, etc. #MLB

Doc wants to go someplace quiet and his four candidates include New York, Boston and Philly? That makes sense.

Yesterday, we learned that the Jays will listen to offers for Roy Halladay, who is pretty much the most bad-ass pitcher on the planet.

I think there are several compelling reasons why the Rays should trade for Halladay, and a couple reasons why they won’t.

Why they should:

1. According to J.P. Ricciardi, via WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford, he apparently wouldn’t hesitate to deal to an AL East competitor. So there’s no barrier there.

2. SI’s Jon Heyman hears that the Jays may want a top SS prospect for the Doc, and the Rays have no shortage os shortstops. There’s Jason Bartlett, Ben Zobrist and the organization’s top prospect, Tim Beckham. So who needs SS Reid Brignac? Why not include him in a deal to land Halladay?

3. Riccardi has insinuated that he wants a bigger package than the Rangers got for Mark Teixeira. That’s probably just posturing, but if any organization is deep enough to put together a comparable package, it’s the Rays. The Braves sent rookie catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and four minor-leaguers to Texas, including slick-fielding shortstop Elvis Andrus and three pitchers: right-hander Neftali Feliz, left-hander Matt Harrison and left-hander Beau Jones. Saltalamacchia and Andrus were rated as the Braves’ top prospects before they were dealt. The Rays could send Brignac and a couple of pitchers — maybe David Price and Jeff Niemann? That would be a pretty great haul, and one that few organizations could match.

4. Even if the Rays lost Price and Niemann, they could promote Wade Davis, who is ready for his shot at the big show having struck out 75 batters in 90 innings in triple-A Durham this season with a 2.90 ERA.

5. The Rays have the best run differential in the AL, yet they’re in third place, 5.5 games behind the first place Red Sox. Acquiring Halladay would help them make up ground in a hurry. Imagine a rotation that boasts Halladay, Shields, Kazmir and Garza. That’s just whacky.

6. The Rays are poised for a big second half. Pat Burrell, Jason Bartlett and Kazmir are back from the DL. BJ Upton’s shoulder is finally healthy. The time is now.

7. Halladay has $7MM left on his 2009 salary, and will make $15MM next season. That’s a lot of money, but the Rays can count on selling a lot of Halladay jerseys once the world’s best pitcher joins the team. Plus, think of all the money they’ll make selling playoff tickets!

Why they won’t:

1. Halladay probably wouldn’t waive his no-trade clause unless the Rays guaranteed him an extension. And the Rays, who are not a big market team, probably don’t want to make that kind of longterm investment.

2. Halladay, a groundball pitcher, must pine for the opportunity to escape Toronto’s turf. So he’d probably be less than excited about moving to the only other turf field in the majors (the Twins will go grass in 2010).

What do you think? Should the Rays trade for Halladay?

Since 1999, there has been an annual tradition among a group of my friends whereby I name a preseason list of “Unquestioned Aces” and then everyone questions my list.  This year being the 10th anniversary of this tradition, I thought I would share the list with UmpBump as well.

My personal definition of an “unquestioned ace” differs from the typical usage of calling the best pitcher on each team that team’s “ace” by default, even if they are not that good. “Unquestioned aces” are true number-one starters: pitchers a manager would gladly start against anyone, anytime. In any given year there are only a small handful of such pitchers in all of baseball.

Being named an “unquestioned ace” is about more than just numbers. A pitcher has to have a certain extra something that strikes fear into the hearts of batters.  However, an unquestioned ace is generally a pitcher who can be relied upon to pitch at least 200 innings, win at least 16 games, and post an ERA of at least 3.75 or better.

The “unquestioned” part is the most important criterion, however.  There must be absolutely no question in anyone’s mind that the said pitcher is a true ace.  Even a rumor of injury or loss of velocity in spring training is enough to bump someone from the list, as long as there are any questions about their ability to dominate in the upcoming season. It generally also means that a pitcher has pitched at least two superlative seasons in a row,  as otherwise there will almost surely be questions as to whether the previous season was a just fluke or not.

This years unquestioned aces are:

Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Roy Oswalt
CC Sabathia
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb

So what do you think? Did I leave anyone out? Did I include someone undeserving?

Aces from previous years after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

The leaves are changing and the hot stove is beginning to percolate. Pretty soon, we’ll be craving hot chocolate, hot totties, and Hot Shots Part Deux. So it must be time for UmpBump’s What They Need series, which was voted by UmpBump writers as the sixteenth best What They Need type posts on the internet. Let’s kick things off with  our lonely neighbors up north, the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are in quite the pickle. They ought to take some solace in the fact that they won 86 games while playing in what was the toughest division in baseball this year and the overwhelmingly primary reason for their competitiveness was their pitching and defense. As a team, the Jays allowed 3.77 runs per game, which was by far the best in all of baseball. Their pitchers did very well in the three most important aspects of pitching – missing bats, limiting walks, and keeping the ball inside the park.

But it’s highly unlikely that they could repeat such successes. For one, A.J. Burnett became a free agent after opting out of the last two years of his contract that was due to pay him $24MM. Perhaps far worse, their two prized 26-year old pitchers, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, are recovering from surgery – Marcum had Tommy John and will miss the entire 2009 season and McGowan’s return date is uncertain following surgery on his labrum, though it’s believed that he won’t be back until the season is well underway. Although this is a team that still boasts ace Roy Halladay and the somewhat promising Jesse Litsch, that’s three starters that will have to be replaced before Opening Day. And I don’t know how they plan on doing this.

One spot is probably going to be filled by David Purcey, a former first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2008 following a very impressive showing in AAA-Syracuse. While Purcey was certainly not immune to struggles in the 12 starts he made for the Jays thanks to a high walk rate, his minor league numbers over the past year or so seems to suggest that he’ll be just fine on that front in due time. But beyond Purcey, it’s anyone’s guess.

It’s certainly possible that the expected return of Casey Janssen could be another piece of the puzzle, but I am skeptical as to how reliable he could be in such a role. In 2007, Janssen surprised many by becoming an effective set-up man just one season after bombing in 17 starts. But he missed all of 2008 after requiring surgery on his labrum. His minor league numbers suggest that his strikeouts could improve, but he’s yet to show that at the big league level.

Below the surface, the Jays do have other promising young pitchers. Coming into 2008, one of their best pitching prospect was 23-year old lefty Ricky Romero. But he struggled quite a bit in the 21 starts he made for AA-New Hampshire before posting a good ERA in AAA-Syracuse. It’s clear that his control remains a major issue, walking over 4.1 hitters per nine innings. There’s also lefty Brett Cecil, but he could use some more development time in AAA and Brad Mills has only notched 32 innings in AA.

I wouldn’t be so down on the Blue Jays’ chances next year if their offense was even decent. But it’s not.  It’s increasingly clear that they made a huge mistake by signing Vernon Wells to a ridiculous 7-year contract that pays him $86MM over the last four years. Wells is going to be 30 come Opening Day and he’s already among the worst defensive center fielders in baseball. He’s going to be a corner outfielder very soon and when that happens, his bat won’t look so special. And Wells was the best bat in the lineup in 2008, which should tell you something.

So here’s what I think the Jays ought to be doing.

1. Explore what value Roy Halladay has in the trade market. With the current state of their rotation, I have a very hard time seeing them competing in 2009, with or without Doc. If they can get a major league ready bat or two (preferably at the infield corner spots) plus a good prospect, they’d be in much better position to compete in 2010. With his comparatively bargain contract ($30MM over two), he has far more value to a contending team than the Jays.
2. Find a DH that can actually hit. I don’t have too much of a problem with teams who fill their DH slot with aging hitters that rotates annually. I do have a problem with teams with DHs that can’t hit. This is the easiest spot on the Jays roster to improve if they feel that prospect Travis Snyder isn’t ready to take over full-time.

As it is currently constructed, the Jays have no positional players that rate above average and I don’t expect that to change all that much in 2009 no matter what they do. Their corner infield spots are taken up by over-the-hill hitters (Overbay and Rolen) whose main value lies in their defense. If those skills slip soon, they’re in serious trouble. I also don’t foresee their two “big” bats, Wells and Alex Rios, to get any better than they already are since they don’t walk nearly enough. I do like Adam Lind and hope that the Jays give him a regular gig to show what he can do. If they can get value back for Halladay, the Jays will still have a good rotation come 2010, with McGowan and Marcum at the top followed by Purcey and Litsch. If prospects Mills and/or Cecil develop well, then they’ll be very good. But all of that will be for naught unless their lineup actually scores some runs, which is why getting hitters in return for Doc is crucial to their future success.

- What They Need Index -

I’m not going to waste your time with a big lead in. Game 2 between the Phillies and Dodgers starts in an hour. So let’s get right to it.

National League

I love Brad Lidge. He’s like a brother to me. And without him the Phillies wouldn’t be playing October baseball right now. But he pitched in 69 innings this season. By comparison, CC Sabathia pitched in 130 innings during his half season in the NL. So I have a hard time giving the award to Lidge, this season’s most dominant reliever, when there are a handful of starters who had equally dominant seasons and pitched in far more innings.

For me, this boils down to a race between three guys: Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Webb led the NL in wins, which is something he can feel good about. But it’s not something I value particularly highly. Santana led the league in ERA, which is a more important metric, but still not the end-all-be-all. Lincecum was second in wins and ERA, as well as VORP among NL pitchers, and he led the league in strikeouts by a lot, led the league in K/9 by a full run, led the league in pitching win shares and led the league in pitching runs created. He’s got my vote.

American League

In the AL it’s really a two horse race. And it’s a dead heat. Cliff Lee led the league in wins and ERA, was second in WHIP and was ninth in strikeouts. Roy Halladay led the league in WHIP, was second in ERA and wins and third in strikeouts. The two pitchers tied for the league lead in pitching runs created. They both had the same number of quality starts (23).

Maybe one of these pitchers benefited disproportionately from above average defensive support? In a word, no. Lee’s ERA, independent of the defense behind him, was 2.95, good for first in the AL. Halladay’s DIPS was 3.07, second in the league.

Halladay led the league in innings pitched. Lee was a distant second, 23 innings behind Halladay. Lee was also second in complete games, with 4. Halladay led the league in complete games with 9.

This really is a toss up. I’ll give it to Halladay, because he had a lot more strikeouts, which is the best result a pitcher can achieve, and he threw more complete games. But in a perfect world these two guys would share the award.

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.