Since 1999, there has been an annual tradition among a group of my friends whereby I name a preseason list of “Unquestioned Aces” and then everyone questions my list.  This year being the 10th anniversary of this tradition, I thought I would share the list with UmpBump as well.

My personal definition of an “unquestioned ace” differs from the typical usage of calling the best pitcher on each team that team’s “ace” by default, even if they are not that good. “Unquestioned aces” are true number-one starters: pitchers a manager would gladly start against anyone, anytime. In any given year there are only a small handful of such pitchers in all of baseball.

Being named an “unquestioned ace” is about more than just numbers. A pitcher has to have a certain extra something that strikes fear into the hearts of batters.  However, an unquestioned ace is generally a pitcher who can be relied upon to pitch at least 200 innings, win at least 16 games, and post an ERA of at least 3.75 or better.

The “unquestioned” part is the most important criterion, however.  There must be absolutely no question in anyone’s mind that the said pitcher is a true ace.  Even a rumor of injury or loss of velocity in spring training is enough to bump someone from the list, as long as there are any questions about their ability to dominate in the upcoming season. It generally also means that a pitcher has pitched at least two superlative seasons in a row,  as otherwise there will almost surely be questions as to whether the previous season was a just fluke or not.

This years unquestioned aces are:

Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Roy Oswalt
CC Sabathia
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb

So what do you think? Did I leave anyone out? Did I include someone undeserving?

Aces from previous years after the jump…

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What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

…

Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

He moved in front of me until we were chest to chest and then he shoved me to the ground. When I attempted to get to my feet, he shoved me a second time.

This was not taken from a script of a Lifetime Original Movie starring Joanna Kerns. These are the words of Astros GM Ed Wade describing his encounter with pitcher Shawn Chacon, who was put on waivers yesterday after admitting to putting his hand around Wade’s throat and throwing him down to the ground.

As a follow-up story, The Houston Chronicle’s Jose de Jesus Ortiz wonders what exactly is going on between the Houston pitchers and their coaches, more specifically, pitching coach Dewey Robinson.

De Jesus Ortiz recounts an incident back on May 17 – facing the Texas Rangers, Astros ace Roy Oswalt complained to Robinson of pain in his groin after completing the sixth inning. Instead of being taken out, Oswalt was asked to give the team one more inning, but instead failed to record an out in the seventh (gave up consecutive hits to Ian Kinsler and Michael Young) before being removed. Following the game, Oswalt told reporters:

“”I told (Manager Cecil Cooper and Robinson) I thought (the 6th inning) was it,” he said after the game. “They wanted me to go one more.”

What makes this strange, however, is that Astros manager Cecil Cooper recounted this very differently:

“He just said he thought he could go back out for the seventh,” Cooper said. “We felt we could get one more out of him.”

Sounds like someone’s lying, or to put it more nicely, someone has “communication problems”. Anyhow, back to de Jesus Ortiz’ column. Cecil Cooper obviously denies that there is a communication problem between the pitching corps and their coach. Oswalt, however, uses words that are probably a little too open to interpretation when talking about his first year manager and pitching coach:

“I won’t say it’s a communication problem. Sometimes we see different from them, and they see it different from us. You still have to play no matter what.”

“I think it’s a lot of (it happening to be the) first time they’ve done this job. You worry about too many things at one time instead of just being worried about being focused on the team and know that everybody here is trying to give 100 percent. Sometimes the game is starting to look a little easier from the sideline than it does on the field. Overall, it’s just trying to get accustomed to the job.”

I can’t say that I blame Oswalt if he’s sounding a bit frustrated. I mean, Dewey Robinson seems to endorse the most useless baseball “skill-enhancing” product I have ever seen. Apparently, pitchers’ in-game performances are elevated by 3 bazillion percent when you begin calling the outside corner of the plate “7″.

Thanks goes out to Zvee Geffen for pointing out the Oswalt-part of the story.

Week 11 of UmpBump.com’s fantasy league has come to a close and some trends have come and gone, while others are here to stay. Alejandro lost for the first time in 6 weeks, Paul stays on top edging a few half games more over the rest of the pack, and Utley’s Firm Quads keeps adding to his league-leading 44 moves. The mystery of the week however is the whereabouts of one caitlin grace who managed to pull off a draw (a tie!!) with Swamp Dragons even though she has zero roster moves, and hasn’t altered her line up or rotation in a while.

Alejandro: I knew it! Well, all good things must come to an end, so my winning streak is now over. Though it was good while it lasted, it exposed a major weakness in my team: streaky hitters. My offense went down the tubes this week with all of my “studs” taking a leave of absence in production. I mean, how can I lose to a team with Casey Blake, Placido Polanco, MIke Lowell and Christian Guzman in the infield, and an injured Manny Ramirez? Well, you start with horrible performances by Dan Uggla, Connor Jackson, AJ Pierzynski, Hanley Ramirez, etc, etc, etc. I only had two players with an .OBP higher than .500 this week, and only one of them fits into the “hot” category. My pitching gave me a fighting chance at overcoming the eventual 7-4 defeat, but a particularly disastrous week by one Todd Wellemeyer (a football-score-like 21.60 ERA) did me under. But you wanna know how bad my team was? I actually won in the ERA stat this week, which means Box89RowKKSeat14 caught my Center Field Stud at the wrong time. Ania, you got away this week! Hot: Carlos Lee, Josh Beckett (yes, Lindsay, 1w, 9ks, and 2.77 makes him hot), Tim Lincecum (Mr. Reliable), Kerry Wood. Not: The rest of ‘em.

Paul: In the kind of battle that will forever be compared to the one at Helm’s Deep (I hate myself sometimes), I took on the mighty forces of 2nd-place Utley’s Firm Quads (Scott). Having only been three games ahead going into last week, I began to wonder if my reign atop the standings would come to an end. But Hazzah! ElDuquesInjuryReport squeaked out a 6-5-1 victory. Offensively, there really wasn’t a star, but the players had enough decent performances to carry me through. On the pitching side, Ted Lilly and C.C. Sabathia combined to pitch 29 2/3 innings and gave up only 6 runs while striking out 29 guys and winning all four starts to boot. And I feel like we as a people aren’t doing enough to recognize the work of Justin Duchscherer this year. He’s not going to keep putting up Cy Young numbers, but he’s more than a solid option who deserves attention. Hot: Kevin Youkilis, Ted Lilly, C.C. Sabathia, Justin Duchscherer. Not: Jhonny Peralta, Shane Victorino, Chris B. Young, George Sherrill, Ryan Franklin.

Coley: Sooze and I battled to a tie this week. But we also exchanged a few players. And, I daresay I got the better end of the deal. I sent her Carlos Pena, Jorge Posada and Jay Bruce in exchange for Jack Cust and Mark Teixeira. I love this trade because my team’s OPB needed a boost and Cust is an OBP machine. And I desperately wanted an upgrade over Pena at 1B, and Teixeira fits the bill. Moreover, Tex is a notorious second-half player who’s in a contract year and I expect big things from him as the season winds down. Sure, it hurts to give up on Bruce, but my outfield was stacked (and remains so with the addition of Cust). And I was going to cut Posada anyways. In other news, Rich Harden has been stellar since I traded Todd Helton for him last week, knock on wood. Also Chone Figgins came off the DL and replaced Scott Rolen at third. And Dice-K is getting ready to return to the mound. Things are looking up. Hot: Harden, Brad Lidge, Vlad Guerrero. Not: Benjie Molina, C.J. Wilson, Brett Myers.

Sarah: I took some crap on our league message board this week for leaving Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte on the bench, only to have the two of them both turn in stellar outings. But what was I supposed to do? Last week I sent Pettitte out against the Royals, only to have him get shelled, and Roy Oswalt has been screwing the Somerville Green Sox all season long. As it was, I won, but only 7-5. And in the end, though I lost out on K/BB and strikeouts (by two whiffs!), I did win ERA, WHIP, and Wins. And on the offensive end, there’s been no hotter hitter over the last couple of weeks than JD Drew. He contributed three homers and a .500 OBP to the Green Sox last week. Hot: Drew, Troy Glaus, Matt Cain. Not: Johnny Cueto (what to do, what to do?!), Vernon Wells, Matt Kemp.

Standings (games behind)

1. Paul – ElDuquesInjuryReport ( – )
2. Scott – Utley’s Firm Quads ( 4.5 )
3. Doug – Swamp Dragons ( 5.5 )
4. Alejandro – Center Field Stud ( 9.5 )
5. Sarah – Somerville Green Sox ( 13 )
6. Bryan – Pirates in ‘08! ( 23 )
7. Kirk – Montefusco’s Revenge ( 24.5 )
8. Ania – Box89RowKKSeat14 ( 25.5 )
9. Coley – Crunkball All-Stars ( 29 )
10. Larry – croutchyoldman ( 29 )
11. Sooze – freebase my balls ( 35 )
12. Caitlin – caitlin grace ( 35.5 )

Sunday night is a bittersweet time. You’re all nice and relaxed from the weekend…but then…what’s that noise?! Did you hear something lurking in the shadows? GAAAH! It’s MONDAY MORNING! RUUUNNN!!! So here’s a few links to lull you back into a false sense of security:

Fire Brand of the American League on the Roy Oswalt – to – Boston – at – the – deadline rumors.

The Kansas City Star on all the stuff you can get with a Royals ticket stub (warning: you may need an Excel spreadsheet to keep track of it all).

The Bleacher Report on what the Rangers could do to become contenders—this season.

The Other Fifteen made a heat map to compare Tulo’s range with Jeter’s. Guess who wins!

View from the Cheap Seats is piiiiiiiissed at Tony LaRussa for letting Adam Wainwright chuck 130 pitches when he’s the Cards’ only good, healthy starter. Viva El Birdos is also concerned.

Phil Hughes lets Morgan Ensberg guest blog. The results are sort of like a Jackson Pollock painting.

Keith Law went to a wedding. The DJ played “Sweet Caroline”….and paused for the fans guests to shout BAHM BAHM BAAAHM and SO GOOD! SO GOOD! SO GOOD! How odd.

River Ave Blues gulps and delivers the bad news: Jorge Posada’s shoulder is still not better. Will the Yanks have to bite the bullet and get a backup for their backup? Doug Mirabelli’s available… (DOUGIE’S GOING DEEP!)

Baseball Prospectus on just how insane Cliff Lee has been to start the season.

High Cheese notes that Tom Gorzelanny’s bobblehead is making an obscene gesture.

And finally, Sox and Dawgs has the latest crop of Red Sox charity wines. Last year, we had Schilling Schardonnay, Caberknuckle, and my personal favorite, Manny Being Merlot. I was hoping the Sox would branch out into beer and hard liquor (“Coco’s Crisp IPA: Packed with good hops” or “Varitek Vodka: Intangibly Smooth”) but no such luck. This year’s puns are Sauvignyoouuk (witty), Captain’s Cabernet (yawn), and Vintage Papi (super-yawn). I’m disappointed, quite frankly. What about the Papi Pinot I requested? The Matsu-sake?! Pedroia’s Petite Sirah? Buchholztraminer?!?

What else should I be reading? Email me!