Yesterday, Umpbump posted our predictions for the 2009 season. Some of these picks were easier than others – for instance, all five of us chose the Cubs as NL Central champs, and four of us picked the A’s and Dodgers to win their respective divisions. A slim three-person majority also favored the Mets to win the NL East and the Indians to take the AL Central.

But some of these picks were downright tricky. The AL East appears to be a total toss-up between the Rays, Red Sox, and Yankees, and our picks reflect that (2 chose Boston, 2 Tampa Bay, and 1 New York).

Similarly, it was hard to choose an AL Rookie of the Year because at least three candidates – David Price, Matt Wieters, and Travis Snider – all have a legitimate shot at vying for it. Should these three fail to live up to expectations, Elvis Andrus and Austin Jackson are waiting in the wings to claim their hardware. Then there’s always the chance that one of the AL’s younger, high-ceiling prospects – Neftali Feliz? – could force himself onto the big-league club sooner than expected and surprise us all.

But it was hard to pick the NL Rookie for the opposite reason: none of the NL’s most exciting talents are big-league ready. Atlanta’s Jayson Heyward is only 19, and topped out at high-A last year. The Giants’ Madison Bumgardner isn’t slated to make it to the bigs until 2010 at the soonest. And the Mets’ Fernando Martinez has already been rushed, and New York won’t want to hurry him further. So who will it be? In the end, four of us settled for Cameron Maybin, who seemed to figure things out a bit last September, while the fifth chose Colby Rasmus, another valid choice. Beyond that, Jordan Schafer’s torrid spring won him Atlanta’s starting CF gig, while Pittsburgh’s Andrew McCutchen has been returned to Triple A – but probably not for long. But by far the most fun rumor is that the Nats would draft Stephen Strasburg and immediately bring the college pitcher to the majors. According to BP’s Kevin Goldstein, “every scout thinks he’d be fine.”

So, while our AL ROY picks came down to politicking – who’ll get more votes for being on a contender, who’ll get penalized for being a pitcher, who’ll get more support for starting the season with the big-league club – the NL picks all come down to who steps up and does the best job. And when it comes to preseason predictions, there’s nothing more boring than “well, it depends…”

Who did we miss, Umpbumpers? What rookies and prospects are you most excited about? What are your picks? Let us know in the comments!

On Monday, we wrote a post upon noticing that Edinson Volquez finished fourth in NL Rookie of the Year voting despite the fact that he’s not a rookie. And we challenged our readers to “out” those three BBWAA members who didn’t bother to actually inform themselves of this fact.

But before anyone could report back, Keith Law has figured it out over at his personal blog (which, if you like to read novels and/or cook, is a very good place to go).

The three voters who included Volquez were Jeremy Cothran of the Newark Star-Ledger, John Klima of the Los Angeles Daily News, and Jay Paris of the North County Times in San Diego.

So there you go, fair readers.

Clearly, members of the Baseball Writers Association of America do not read UmpBump.

If they did, they would know that EDINSON VOLQUEZ IS NOT A FREAKING ROOKIE.

And yet, Volquez finished 4th in the National League Rookie of the Year voting.

Right.

And it’s the bloggers who don’t know what they’re talking about? We’re the uninformed?

By the way, if any of can find out who the three writers were who gave Volquez those 2nd place votes, please name them in the comments section.

Hi, kids. I’m Paul Moro from UmpBump.com.

Did you know that every year, millions of baseball fans put themselves in harm’s way around this time of the year? It’s true. Because now’s the time when we’re all discussing amongst friends, co-workers and families who should win the MVP, Cy Young, and Rookie of the Year Awards. And we end up sounding like jackasses because we have no idea what we’re talking about.

Take Jim Duquette for example. Now Jim was the general manager of the New York Mets in 2004 and will forever be remembered for his brilliant acquisition of Victor Zambrano at the trade deadline that year in a deal that sent top prospect Scott Kazmir to the Tampa Bay Devil Rays – despite the fact that the Mets were already out of contention by then. So we know that Jim reached the top of his profession by becoming GM. We just don’t know how the hell that happened.

Now Jim does commentary online for MLB.com. And about a month ago, he laid out his top-five National League rookies (you can see video here). And Jim sounded like a jackass. Why? Because he put Edinson Volquez at #1.

Jim, Edinson Volquez IS NOT A ROOKIE. Here’s what the rule book says:

Determining rookie status:
A player shall be considered a rookie unless, during a previous season or seasons, he has (a) exceeded 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the Major Leagues; or (b) accumulated more than 45 days on the active roster of a Major League club or clubs during the period of 25-player limit (excluding time in the military service and time on the disabled list).

Volquez had already thrown 80 innings in his Major League career from 2005-2007. Which means he’s not a rookie. And I know what you’re all thinking. You’re saying, “But Paul, shouldn’t former general managers know these things?” Yes. Yes, they should.

So before you open your mouth or type up some words on blogs regarding the NL Rookie of the Year this year, just remember, kids. Edinson Volquez is not a rookie. Don’t be a jackass. Don’t be like Jim.

UPDATE: It just got worse. UmpBump’s Sarah just sent this along. It appears that a player’s poll back in August asked “Which rookie has impressed you the most?” And who was on the list? You betcha. Tied for second with 16% of the votes, Edinson Volquez. Congratulations, MLB players.

Some pretty interesting facts have come to light over the past few days in the reportage and windbaggery surrounding the announcement of the AL and NL Rookies of the Year yesterday…

1. Did we know that Ryan Braun had the highest rookie slugging percentage in the history of baseball? Wow.

2. Troy Tulowitzki saved the Rockies something like 50 runs on defense, no matter which method you use. That is even more amazing, and probably means he’s the best defensive player in the game today. Although I can’t help wondering if Coors Field may be at least slightly skewing those numbers due to more balls in play or something.

3. Did we know Dustin Pedroia played the last 2 months of the season and the playoffs with a broken hand? Gamer!

4. Daisuke Matsuzaka had a higher VORP than Dustin Pedroia. This makes me feel a bit better about me having picked him as AL ROY back in my October 2 post. Still, after watching Pedroia’s amazing performance in the postseason, and now hearing about the broken hand, I realize I should have picked him over Matsuzaka. Giving that I also went knee-jerk with Braun over Tulo without even looking at the defensive stats, this now puts me in the embarrassing situation of having to admit to Sarah that I was wrong and she was right about BOTH Rookie of the Year picks. Ouch.

I’m not here to harp on Dustin Pedroia’s victory in the AL Rookie of the Year voting.  In fact, we picked the diminutive one as the deserving candidate in a previous post. So while I commend the voters for not being swayed by things such as seemingly gaudy power numbers (Delmon Young) or name recognizition (Daisuke Matsuzaka), I do have to question how Jeremy Guthrie isn’t even in the top-8.

The voting went as follows: 1) Pedroia 2) D .Young 3) Brian Bannister 4) Matsuzaka 5) Reggie Willits 6) Hideki Okajima 7) Josh Fields 8) Joakim Soria

 You mean to tell me we couldn’t find a spot for a pitcher who posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP over 175+ innings? Do I need to mention that he had a 2.62 K/BB ratio? The only thing I can think of as to why his name was omitted was that the voters saw he only had seven wins. But that’s not really his fault when he only received twelve decisions in 32 games pitched (26 starts).

In fact, in the months of May and June, the Oriole righty went through a stretch of ten starts during which he pitched 72 2/3 innings (that’s over seven innings per start) and allowed only 14 earned runs (1.73 ERA). He got two wins to show for it.  Sucks for him.

So where do I think he belongs on this list of also-rans? #2. Right behind Dustin Pedroia. Compared to Brian Bannister, Guthrie pitched more innings, had a lower ERA, same WHIP, with a far superior strikeout rate and K/BB ratio. The only area where Guthrie trailed? Wins. So naturally, Bannister is the #3 rookie and Guthrie’s name in nowhere to be found.

And so it goes for year-end awards.

Now that the 2007 season has come to a close, it’s time to parse the 2007 rookie class and separate the wheat from the chaff, the best from the rest, the cookies…from the crumbs.

American League

Cookie: Dustin Pedroia

My picking “Pedro” (as the guys on the team have christened him) should come as no surprise to regular readers of UmpBump. Quite simply, no other rookie has grown up as fast or as completely as the little man with the big swing. After a brutal first month in the majors, Dustin was hitting .182 at the end of April, and the ravening hordes of Red Sox Nation were calling for blood. Worse, veteran players on other teams were audibly laughing at him and his body-wringing swing during his at-bats.

They’re not laughing now. Pedroia finished the season with the best batting average of AL rookies (.317), the best OPS (.822), and the most runs scored (88). Though he only has seven stolen bases, he has the best stolen base percentage (0.88). And he’s one of the hardest batters to strike out in the league (just 42 K’s in 581 plate appearances, for a beautiful walk-to-strikeout rate of 1.12) . Such a rate of contact without a lot of power (just 8 homers on the season) must mean he grounds into a lot of double plays, right? Actually, no—Pedroia has done that just 8 times this season.

Defensively, Pedroia has been solid but not spectacular. This is an area where I believe his diminutive stature has hurt him—many a time I’ve seen him dive after a gapper, his 5′7″ frame fully extended, only to watch the ball sail just an inch past his wee arm. Nevertheless, he plays an acrobatic second base, epitomized by the amazing grab he made to save fellow rookie Clay Buchholz’s no-hitter.

In addition to his maturity on the field, Pedroia has also shown maturity off the field: after a brief hubbub early in the season when Alex Rodriguez through a multimilliondollar elbow at him to try and break up a double play, Pedroia’s mild comment (calling it “cheap” but also “no big deal”) got all kinds of airtime. And young Dustin promptly learned a valuable lesson: zip it.

For being the rookie to play the most like a big-leaguer, Dustin Pedroia deserves to be the American League Rookie of the Year.

Crumbs: Delmon Young, Reggie Willits, Josh Fields, Brian Bannister, Jeremy Guthrie.

Not that I think these guys are crummy players—just that it’s the crumbs they’ll get stuck with when Pedroia gets the cookie. Delmon Young has gotten a lot of attention as a potential ROY for knocking in 93 RBI, no mean feat (it doesn’t hurt that his average, which was .288 overall, jumps to .347 with runners in scoring position). However, the Tampa Bay left fielder has a hideous VORP (just 5.7, compared with Pedroia’s 36.0). And while Young gets props for playing in all 162 games this year, he instantly loses those props for failing to run out a grounder and being benched by his manager with just one game left to play. I know it’s hard to run out every ball when it’s the end of September and you play for the Devil Rays, but this is just the kind of immature incident that has gotten Young in trouble in the past. It’s not big-league. It’s bush-league.

Willits, left-fielder for the Angels, gets an honorable mention for having the best eye of the rookie class. Though it’s hard to strike out Pedroia, it’s hard not to walk Willits: a .391 OBP, 69 walks, and 4.44 pitches per plate appearance. Once he gets on, pitchers had better keep their eye on him, too—he had 27 steals this year. But he has absolutely no power—just 20 doubles and no homers.

Josh Fields should be an interesting guy to watch develop. The White Sox third baseman only played 100 games this year, which hurts his ROY status in my mind, but he’s an interesting combination of above-average defensive ability and power hitting. His average was just .244, yet he hit 23 homers and has a .480 slugging percentage. If he can learn some plate discipline (he had 125 strikeouts in those 100 games—yikes) he could be a real threat for Chicago.

As for the pitchers, Guthrie and Bannister, it’s hard to say what these kids would have done if they’d been on better teams (as opposed to the Orioles and the Royals, respectively). Bannister may not strike out a lot of people, but he doesn’t walk a lot of folks either. He was consistently good all year long, but especially effective June through August. Guthrie was a bit more uneven, but finished the year with comparable numbers. I don’t think either of them is the rookie of the year, but I’d sure like to have them on my team.

National League

Cookie: Troy Tulowitzki

The Rockies shortstop has really turned it on in the past week to help his team get to the playoffs, with a grand slam here, a triple there, a couple of doubles over there. But that’s nothing new for the newbie—he’s been playing well all season long. His .287 average, 24 homers, and 98 RBI make him a great offensive shortstop. Lucky for the Rockies, then, that they sacrifice absolutely nothing on defense: Tulowitzki has been the best defensive shortstop in the league this year.

Crumbs: Ryan Braun, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Hunter Pence, James Loney.

Ryan Braun, third baseman for the Brewers, has a drool-worthy amount of offense: .324 average, .634 slugging percentage, 1.004 OPS, and 34 homers. Those homers look even more amazing when you realize he played in just 113 games. Unfortunately, as I mentioned above, I feel bad about giving awards to guys who don’t play on an everyday basis, or close to it. I also feel bad handing out cookies to guys who are the worst at their positions, defensively. And Braun has been, hands down, the worst third baseman in the league this year. Sorry, Ryan. Even your husky VORP (57.2) isn’t enough to save you.

What about Hunter Pence, you ask? The Astros centerfielder put up some very good numbers—.322 average, 69 RBI, 17 homers, and nine triples in 108 games. He uses his speed well in the outfield, where he’s above average defensively, but I feel obliged to note that he has a harmful .69 stolen base percentage. Nevertheless, If he’d played in more games, he could have given Tulowitzki some real competition.

I also considered Kevin Kouzmanoff, the third baseman for the Padres. Alas, poor Kevin! He loses another heartbreaker to his Colorado foe. His offensive numbers are juuust a touch softer than Troy’s across the board. Plus, he’s right down there with Braun as a craptastic corner glove. Nevertheless, he was the only rookie besides Tulowitzki and Diamondbacks CF Chris “.237″ Young to play in more than 140 games, and that, plus his decent numbers, is enough to earn our consideration.

Finally, I feel obliged to give an honorary crumb to James Loney, the young Dodgers first baseman. Like Pence, if he’d played in more games (as opposed to just 96) he could have given Tulowitzki a run for his money. In three important categories, he achieved some impressive numbers: his .331 average, .381 OBP, and 114 runs scored. As two nice peripherals, his walk-to-strikeout rate was the best in the class at 0.58, as was his average with runners in scoring position—a whopping .419. And not that first base is a defensively demanding position, but it’s worth noting that he can hold his own there.

Loney, Pence, and Braun (move him to first base, somebody!) might not be your NL ROYs, but any of them could very well end up being your NL MVPs a few years hence.

Compared to last year, ranking the rookies for this season is pretty boring, since as Coley points out, most of the best rookies were in the NL, but even in the NL the choice is obvious given Ryan Braun’s utter dominance.

But I have been a bit surprised at some of the names that keep getting mentioned, as well as some of the names who haven’t been mentioned much.

So I decided to rank the top 15 rookies together in one group, including players from both leagues. Here is what I came up with:

1. Ryan Braun (NL)

2. Troy Tulowitzki (NL)

3. Daisuke Matsuzaka (AL)

4. Hunter Pence (NL)

5. Dustin Pedroia (AL)

6. Jeremy Guthrie (AL)

7. James Loney (NL)

8. Brian Bannister (AL)

9. Chris Young (NL)

10. Kyle Kendrick (NL)

11. Yovanni Gallardo (NL)

12. Peter Moylan (NL)

13. Reggie Willits (AL)

14. Joakim Soria (AL)

15. Hideki Okajima (AL)

Sure enough, 8 out of my top 12 rookies hail from the National League. Although I’m not sure if this necessarily means good things for inter-league balance, since the Red Sox and the Yankees are probably just going to sign away all these guys as soon as they hit free agency.

Also, as you can see, I agree with Coley’s contention that at least based on pure numbers, Troy Tulowitzki was really unlucky to have his rookie year in the same season as Ryan Braun. But in actuality I don’t really feel too bad for him, given that he benefitted greatly from playing half his games in Coors Field, posting a ridiculous .942/.720 home/road OPS split.

Hunter Pence had a heck of the year, hitting for both average and power and stealing bases as well, and even with his injury woes he still managed to play in 108 games and log 456 at-bats. He’s not the Rookie of the Year, but he has a heck of a future ahead of him.

After Braun, Dodgers first-baseman James Loney was actually the second-best rookie in the National League this season, and did get into 96 games, but couldn’t make as much of a contribution to his team as Pence or Tulowitzki since was pointlessly blocked for the first two months owing to Ned Colletti’s foolish decision to resign Nomar Garciaparra despite the fact that Loney led all of baseball in batting average at AAA in 2006.

Frankly, I don’t understand why anyone is even considering Delmon Young, and as you can see, I’ve left him off my list. In fact, he wouldn’t even make my top 20. Delmon Young led all rookies in at-bats with 654, yet only hit 13 home runs, walked a mere 26 times, and posted a woeful .723 OPS. 10 other rookies hit more home runs, most of them in far fewer at-bats. Out of the eight rookies who qualified for a batting title, five had a higher OBP than Young, including teammate Akinori Iwamura. The bottom line is, if you get 654 at-bats and OPS .723 as a corner outfielder, you are in fact severely hurting your team, even if you are a veteran. You are certainly not anywhere close to being the Rookie of the Year!

I’m also not sure why Hideki Okajima gets mentioned so much. Sure he had a great year, but Peter Moylan was by far the best rookie relief pitcher this year (although he was in the NL), and even in his own league Joakim Soria of the Royals put up nearly identical numbers while posting 17 saves to Okajima’s 5.

A guy who certainly deserves more consideration is D-Backs centerfielder Chris Young. He’s not the Rookie of the Year because his batting average and on-base percentage were atrocious, but he did contribute greatly at a defensive skill position while playing every day, and chipped in 32 home runs along with 27 stolen bases.

I’ve saved perhaps my most controversial call until last: I’m going to have to go with Daisuke Matsuzaka over Dustin Pedroia as my 2007 AL Rookie of the Year. First of all, I don’t buy the whole argument that Japanese players shouldn’t be eligible for ROY consideration given all their experience in Japan. Having watched a lot of Japanese baseball, I can say firsthand that it is nowhere near the level of the Majors. That’s why Matsuzaka’s ERA was 4.40 this year and not 2.35. Also, Matsuzaka was only 26, which isn’t really that old. If an American player gets lots of experience in the minors and then has a breakout season at 27 or 28, we don’t say he should be ineligible for the award.

But more importantly, Matsuzaka had a better year than Pedroia. Sure, he wasn’t *quite* as good as some of the more delierious Boston fans might have expected, but was still one of the better pitchers in the American League, posting 15 wins, pitching over 200 innings, and striking out 201 batters. Sure, Pedroia had a great season, but was he even the most valuable rookie on his own team? Put another way, would the Red Sox rather have played through this past season without Daisuke Matsuzaka, or without Dustin Pedroia? I think it’s clear that Matsuzaka made a greater contribution as a rookie in the AL.