In what has otherwise been a disastrous season for the Kansas City Royals, 23-year-old first baseman Billy Butler has had a breakout season, with an .842 OPS. But perhaps most impressively of all, Butler is on pace to hit 49 doubles.

The list of players who have hit at least 49 doubles in their age 23 season or younger is very short, and very exclusive. In fact, only seven players have ever done it. Have a look:

Hank Greenberg
Enos Slaughter
Stan Musial
Alex Rodriguez
Albert Pujols
Grady Sizemore
Miguel Cabrera

As you can see, Nick isn’t the only one at UmpBump who can create a WAR pie. Behold, my Royals WAR pie! Why the Royals? I  wanted to see a WAR pie for a team that is basically a group of replacement level players (and Zack Greinke). Check out how Greinke is carrying this team. He represents 29 percent of the team’s WAR. That’s crazy!

Brian Bannister and David DeJesus come in a very distant second, with 2.4 and 2.5 WAR, respectively. Good for them.

Maybe the most interesting thing about the Royals pie is Joakim Soria’s relatively small slice. He’s been worth only 1.2 WAR, which is pretty low when you consider he’s been his typical dominant self in 2009. He’s been worth so little because he hasn’t pitched much.

Soria spent a couple weeks on the DL in May, but for the most part you can blame Royals manager Trey Hillman for Soria’s lack of innings. Until very recently, Hillman insisted on using Soria in only save situations. And these being the Royals, there aren’t many save situations.

As a result, this season there are 135 pitchers who have made more appearances than Soria, and 138 relievers who have thrown more innings. Considering how desperate the Royals are for talent, that’s unforgivable.

We’ll conclude with a look at the Royals’ position player WAR vs. the team’s pitching WAR. As you can see, Kansas City is pretty much the anti-Phillies — all pitching and little offense.

Well that’s something I’d never seen… In last night’s 10th inning victory over the Royals, the Indians’ Shin-Soo Choo came up to the plate with no outs and runners on first and second. And then, that happened:

I’m sure that pretty soon MLB will take the video down so for those of you late-comers, here’s the deal. Choo lines a shot over the mound into centerfield where a flock of gulls (it is a flock, right?) were just hanging out beyond the infield dirt. Before Royals CFer Coco Crisp could get to the ball, it strikes one of these mellow, “you know, just chillin’” gulls and deflects past Crisp to score the winning run.

Apparently, the Indians still have good karma left in them, despite Chief Wahoo’s mug.

I should also note that the bird was fine. It was stunned briefly and then flew away into that Cleveland night…

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

The White Sox started 2009 with DeWayne Wise playing centerfield. That didn’t work, so the Sox tried Jerry Owens. And when Owens didn’t pan out, Chicago went to Plan C: Scott Podsednik.

For years, the team’s centerfield carousel has been a source of frustration. The Sox haven’t enjoyed a full season of CF goodness since 2004, when Aaron Rowand roamed the middle outfield grass. Since then, in addition to Owens, Podsednik and Wise, they’ve tried Nook Logan, Nick Swisher and Brian Anderson.

The White Sox aren’t the only organization who have struggled to fill a specific position. Far from it.

Let’s take a look at some other organizations and their positions of futility:

Braves (LF): This winter, the Braves signed Garret Anderson to play left field. So far, Anderson has hit .191 with 6 runs and 4 RBI in 16 games. Before Anderson came along the Braves went with a Matt Diaz/other guy platoon in left, and before that Kelly Johnson got a shot, and before that…well whaddya know! Dewayne Wise played a little left for Atlanta in 2004. You have to go back to 2003, when Chipper “Don’t call me Hoss” Jones played there, to find a decent full-time LF in Atlanta.

Red Sox (SS): For the better part of nine seasons the Red Sox had an elite shortstop. His name was Nomar. In 2004 the Sox traded Nomar to the Cubs, and then Boston won its first World Series in nearly 90 years. But they haven’t had a good shortstop since. In fact, they’ve had the opposite of a good shortstop — Julio Lugo.

Royals (1B): It seems they’ve had plenty of opportunities to fill the position with somebody capable, but have instead insisted on the likes of Ross Gload and Mike Jacobs. Kansas City hasn’t had a really good 1B since the 2002 version of Mike Sweeney.

Mariners (DH): For a while, the M’s had the best DH — Mr. Edgar Martinez. Since Edgar’s departure, the Mariners have filled the position with a cast of lesser beings, bottoming out with Jose Vidro in 2007-2008.

Tigers (LF): The Tigers suffered through several seasons of Craig Monroe and his consistently sub-.300 OBP. They really haven’t had even a decent LF since Bobby Higginson in 2001.

Giants (1B): Since JT Snow left after 2005, it’s been a total black hole with a parade of incompetents like Lance Niekro, Rich Aurelia, Shea Hillenbrand, post-steroids Ryan Klesko (a mere 6 homers in ‘07), John Bowker, and now Travis Ishikawa.

Can you think of any positions of futility that we missed? Let us know in the comments section.

The recent cagey signing of Adam Kennedy to a minor league deal the other day is yet further evidence that the Rays under Andrew Friedman are just about the best run organization in baseball.

Not only are the Rays stocked up and down the system with an incredible array of talented prospects, but they are also stocked in AAA Durham with an amazing collection of major-league ready talent.

These are not just replacement-level mediocrities playing out the string. Virtually everyone on the team could easily be starting in the majors for the right team, and would have a reasonable shot to perform above replacement level.

Check out the projected 2009 opening day starters and rotation of the Durham Bulls:

C John Jaso – .820 OPS last season in AAA
1B Chris Richard – 26 homers, .922 OPS last year in 467 AAA at-bats
2B Adam Kennedy – solid infield glove and .276 avg for 10 seasons in the Show
3B Morgan Ensberg – former All-Star 3B for the Astros is still only 33 years old
SS Reid Brignac – one of the top prospects in the Rays system
LF Justin Ruggiano – .911 OPS including 11 homers and 20 SB in 66 AAA games last year
CF Fernando Perez – 43 SB at AAA last year
RF Matt Joyce – 116 OPS plus for the Tigers last season

SP1 – David Price – 12-1, 2.30 ERA (minors), 0-0, 1.93 (MLB)
SP2 – Wade Davis – 4-2, 2.72 (9 AAA starts)
SP3 – Jeff Neimann – 9-5, 3.59 (AAA)
SP4 – Mitch Talbot – 13-9, 3.86 (AAA)
SP5 – Ben Hendrickson – 10-9, 4.58 (AAA)

So who would have a better record if this team played the Royals 2009 schedule?

In all honesty it would probably be the Royals, but the point is that the Rays are certainly in good shape with some cheap in-house solutions if they run into any injury woes this year.

I feel like we’re beating a dead horse. Nick said it. I said it. Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli said it. And now I’m saying it again: The Kansas City Royals need more OBP.

The 2008 Royals were twelfth out of 14 AL teams in OBP, and last in walks. But Dayton Moore kicked off the trade season by dealing for Marlins 1B Mike Jacobs, who had a .299 on-base percentage in 2008 and walked just 36 times.

Next, Moore picked up the option on catcher Miguel Olivo, who has a .275 career OBP.

Then he signed free agent infielder Willie Bloomquist, who had one extra base hit in 2008 and a .377 OBP. What’s that  you say? A .377 OBP isn’t half bad? Don’t be fooled. Bloomquist’s high OBP came in only 71 games and 165 at bats — not a very big sample size. His career OBP is a more pedestrian .322. In Bloomquist’s favor, he can play almost every position and would make a decent utility player, but it seems the Royals intend to use him as an everyday second baseman.

Moore’s best transaction was trading for Coco Crisp, whose stellar defense will be an asset, but whose .331 career OBP doesn’t help solve the Royals’ biggest problem.

What it all comes down to, as Jazayerli describes, is the Royals simply have too many low OBP guys to compete:

Baseball rewards balance, and punishes redundancy. One Jack Cust in your lineup is an asset, because he mashes the ball and you can hide him at DH – but if you’ve got four Jack Custs in your lineup, then you have no defense at three positions, and pretty soon you’re giving up runs faster than you can score them. Similarly, if you’ve got one low-OBP hitter in your lineup, he can bat ninth and compensate for his low OBP in other ways. But when you’ve got five low-OBP hitters in your lineup, then by definition some of them are going to have to lead off or bat in the middle of the order, and the liability of each additional low-OBP hitter has a multiplier effect.

Amen, Rany. Amen.

Added: Mike Jacobs, Coco Crisp, Kyle Farnsworth, Willie Bloomquist.

Lost: Ramon Ramirez, Leo Nunez, Kip Wells.

Projected lineup, rotation, and closer:

CF Coco Crisp
SS Mike Aviles
RF Jose Guillen
DH Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
LF David Dejesus
1B Mike Jacobs
2B Willie Bloomquist
C Miguel Olivo

SP Zack Greinke
SP Gil Meche
SP Brian Bannister
SP Luke Hochevar
SP Kyle Davies/ Jorge Ramirez

CL Joakim Soria

Conclusion: The Royals have a decent pitching staff, led by Meche, Greinke and Bannister. They’ve got a top flight closer and potential star hitters in Billy Butler and Alex Gordon. But until they address the team’s total and complete lack of OBP, they’re screwed.

Grade: F

-Hot Offseason Action index -

The 2008 Royals were twelth out of 14 AL teams in OBP. So what did the Royals do to address the problem? They kicked off the trade season by dealing for Marlins 1B Mike Jacobs, that’s what. Jacobs hit a career-high 32 homers this season in 141 games, although he batted just .247 with a .299 on-base percentage.

How bad is Jacobs at getting on base? He walked just 36 times last year, and his .299 on-base percentage was the seventh-lowest in baseball among players with 500 or more plate appearances.

Here’s what Rob Neyer, a Royals fan, had to say about Jacobs:

Mike Jacobs is not a good baseball player. He’s just not. Jacobs’ career OPS+ is 110. That number almost perfectly describes Jacobs’ current abilities, as he has been quite consistent. Here are his OPS+ numbers for the past three years: 106, 100, 109. Good for a hitter, but not for a hitter who plays first base.

Yes, he did hit 32 home runs last season. To be a good hitter with a .299 on-base percentage, you have to hit at least 40 homers. Maybe 50.

Jacobs’ acquisition should lead to more homers, which couldn’t hurt, since Kansas City was 13th in the AL in homers in 2008. But odds are he’ll be hitting a lot of solo shots, because Kansas City isn’t very good at getting on base, and adding Jacobs won’t change that.

Hey, don’t get me wrong. Jacobs represents an improvement over Ross Gload and his three home runs and 37 RBI. But if you’re only objective is to find somebody better than Gload, then you’ve set the bar pretty low.

If you get past Kansas City’s OBP troubles the team isn’t so bad. Not so good, either. But not awful. Kansas City gave up the fifth most runs in the AL last season and the team’s defense was middle of the pack.

The Royals would need a lot to go right in order to contend in 2009. A lot. Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen and Butler would have to realize their potential and become the stars the Royals believe they can be. Gil Meche has to have a bounce-back year. Zack Greinke has to continue to pitch like an ace. Ditto Joakim Soria.

A free agent like Jason Giambi could help the Royals, but Giambi is limitted to DH/1B and the Royals have a glut of players that play that position, including Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, Gload and Kila Ka’aihue. Giambi would just add to that glut.

The Royals will no doubt look to trade some of their 1B/DH depth. Butler has the most trade value, but the Royals would be selling low on a guy who only a year ago was considered one of the league’s brightest hitting talents. Ka’aihue has career numbers of .262/.382/.448 in seven minor league seasons, but he could start the year back in triple-A.

What’s troubling about the Jacobs acquisition is that it suggests that the organization isn’t serious about improving the team’s OBP. And it needs to be serious about OBP, but the Royals’ OBP is a serious problem.

- What They Need Index -