Last night, two Phillies players tried on new looks. Ryan Howard showed up for the game rocking the playoff beard, and Chase Utley brought back the slicked back hair.

Howard’s new look was somewhat unexpected, as he’s been hot lately and if there’s one thing Crash Davis taught us it’s that you never mess with a winning streak. Howard’s new scruff paid dividends in the first inning, when he stroked a double to right field. He added a single later on, and struck out twice.

Utley’s return to hair gel was a little less surprising, as he struggled in the NLCS, and a change was arguably in order.

I know Sarah cringes whenever Chase slicks back his locks, but I don’t mind. Granted, it’s not his best look. But when Utley globs on the gel, you know it’s business time. It’s what I like to call his Michael Corleone look. Remember how in the beginning of “The Godfather,” Pacino’s Michael is a newly discharged marine, still a little wet behind the ears and more than a little naive about the family business? That’s who this Utley, with the short hair, reminds me of. But by the end of the movie, Michael has been transformed into a cold, ruthless businessman/killer. That’s slicked-back-hair Utley. He’ll make you an offer you can’t refuse. The offer? You’re gonna throw the ball, and he’s gonna hit it out. Capiche?

Say whatever else about the man, but no one can claim that Ryan Howard is not a big-time homerun hitter. Last night, Howard broke a Major League record by hitting his 200th HR in 658 career games, which is the fewest number of games played of anyone who has ever reached that mark. So kudos to Mr. Howard.

But for the sake of keeping things in context, it is important, I think, to remember that Howard got a very late start to his career thanks to Jim Thome, who had been the Phillies first baseman while Howard lingered in the minors (he was 26 years old before he even played his first full season in the bigs). So essentially, Howard was already in his peak years when he arrived on the scene and his power had already developed. Had Thome not been an impediment to Howard’s big league promotion, the guy could have been a big league regular at least a full season earlier, if not two. And chances are, he would not have been such an impact bat from the onset.

For instance, Ralph Kiner, whose record Howard broke last night, was a full two years younger when he hit his 200th. In fact, there have been 79 players in baseball history who have hit their 200th HR during or before the year they turned 29, including less heralded names as Adam Dunn, Troy Glaus, Adrian Beltre, Shawn Green, Eric Chavez, Ruben Sierra, Bob Horner, and Kent Hrbek. And because there are doubts that a player of Howard’s massive size could be a productive hitter for much longer, it’s also worth mentioning that Kiner’s power began to leave him at 29, and a back injury forced an early retirement at the age of 32.

So while it is an accomplishment to even be good enough to hit 200 HRs over a major league career, I have serious reservations when guys like Tim Kurkjian says that “Howard’s gonna go to 500 HRs, at least” like he did last night on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight. There have only been 14 players in the history of the game who hit 300 HRs between the age of 30 and their subsequent retirement – and quite a few of them are regarded as PED-users (Bonds, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sosa, Sheffield, and who knows who else). So Howard’s chances are, well, not good.

Maybe I’m selling Howard short. Maybe he’ll continue to lose weight like he apparently did this off season. Maybe he’ll be incredibly fortunate and stay healthy for another ten-twelve years  and somehow beat the odds.

Piggybacking on Coley’s post yesterday regarding Albert Pujols as MVP, I want to draw attention to another article arguing against the pick – this one from the Washington Post’s Thomas Boswell (hat tip to some unknown blogger named Rob Neyer. Keep trying, Rob. You’ll make it someday).

Out of all the articles I’ve read regarding this topic, this one struck me for three reasons.

For one, I don’t like how a lot of writers refer to OPS as if it was this foreign object that shouldn’t be trusted. It’s just on base percentage plus slugging percentage. It’s not hard. Here’s what Boswell wrote:

This week, Albert Pujols won the NL MVP Award. Why? Mostly because he had a better OPS and VORP (Value Over Replacement Player) than Ryan Howard. Say what? Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Phils’ first baseman had 48 homers and 146 RBI to Pujols’ 37 homers and 116 RBI.

See what he did there? Had he said that Pujols had a better OBP and SLG, his argument is undercut due to the fact that people are more familiar with those two stats. But say OPS and it’s voodoo. Oh, and by the way, Pujols didn’t just have better OBP and SLG numbers. He CRUSHED Howard in both those categories (and many others, but let’s keep going).

Secondly, there’s this:

True, Howard can’t field (19 errors). And Pujols outhit him by .357 to .251. Howard strikes out a ton while Pujols walks constantly. But none of it outweighs Howard’s RBI total, built on his .320 average with runners in scoring position. For what it’s worth, Howard wasn’t even in the top half dozen in baseball in runners-on-base when he came to the plate. His 146 RBI wasn’t a fluke. He’s Mr. Multi-Run Homer.

I’m not going to point out how many things are wrong with this argument because really, it’s daunting. And if the first three sentences are an argument FOR Howard, you’re in trouble. But I do want to point out how often people bring up Howard’s average with runners on base, which is certainly very good, no doubt. But I don’t understand how you could ethically make the argument that this proves Howard’s superiority over Pujols when Prince Albert hit .339 in those same situations. To say that Howard’s AVG with RISP is an argument for him over Pujols means that you either didn’t do nearly enough research or you purposely hide the facts to boost your own argument. And yes, Pujols also beats Howard in OBP and SLG with RISP too.

“And for what it’s worth”, Howard was 8th in plate appearances with runners on base, so it’s true that “Howard wasn’t even in the top half dozen in baseball in runners-on-base when he came to the plate”. But you know who had less? Yup. Albert Pujols. Howard had 351plate appearances with runners on. Pujols had 322. So please stop hiding stats. It’s really not hard to find.

To his credit, there are damned good reasons as to why he’s writing for the Washington Post and I’m not. And perhaps none bigger is because he’s a far better writer than I am. I’ve been looking for years for a way to properly describe why my view of baseball is so different than what’s conventionally written in the papers. And then Boswell drops this line, which was the third thing that struck me about this article.

When stats WILDLY contradict common sense, always doubts the stats.

Wow. That’s it. That’s why I sometimes think that the SABR crowd and the traditionalist crowd see the world completely differently. We do. I’m the absolute inverse of this Boswell statement. For me, when stats WILDLY contradict common sense, I always doubt common sense. Because my common sense sucks. My common sense tells me that it’s OK to unironically listen to Michael McDonald. My common sense tells me that I should take all the money I have out of my bank account, turn them all into coins, melt them down, and create my own medieval armor out of the metals because it’s a better investment right now. I don’t trust my common sense. Whereas stats tell me that by the time I retire, the economy may have recovered. Stats tell me that I am about thirty years too young and too minority-ish to be listening to Michael McDonald. They help me make the right decisions. Do not be afraid of them.

By the way, I have no idea when Boswell’s worldview changed. He was one of the early trailblazers for the statistical movement we see today. But to me and to many others, data is a major reflection of reality. They’re inseparable.

We’ve got a host of NL MVP-related links today.

DanUpBaby at Viva El Birdos says, “I’ve never been happier to overreact about something, personally.”

Here’s how Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writer Tom Hardricourt voted:

1. Ryan Howard, 2. CC Sabathia,3. Manny Ramirez, 4. Carlos Delgado, 5. Aramis Ramirez, 6. Prince Fielder, 7. Albert Pujols, 8. Ryan Ludwick,9. Ryan Braun, 10. David Wright.

Philadelphia Inquirer reporter Todd Zolecki outs colleague Rich Campbell, who had the nerve not to vote for Howard at all. Campbell has covered the Washington Nationals for the Fredericksburg (Va.) Free Lance-Star for one year. He picked Pujols first, New York Mets third baseman David Wright second, Houston Astros first baseman Lance Berkman third, Phillies second baseman Chase Utley fourth, and Florida Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez fifth. When asked why he didn’t vote for Howard, Campbell said, “I’d rather not comment on it, to be honest with you.”

A lot of people are up in arms about what Philadelphia Inquirer sports columnist Phil Sheridan said: “Ryan Howard was the most valuable player in the National League in 2008. That he was not voted MVP by the Baseball Writers’ Association of America says more about the association than about Howard, Albert Pujols or America.”

You can find a rebuttal to Sheridan’s column here.

But my favorite response to Pujols’ win came from the Philadelphia Daily News’ Sam Donnellon, who says Pujols is MVP, but Ryan Howard has greater “presence” — which seems to be an intangible akin to David Eckstein’s grit. Ordinarily, if I read something like this I would send the link to the guys at Fire Joe Morgan. But since the site is no more, I’m going to take it upon myself to break this one down, FJM style.

Here we go…

So how did Howard, with all those punchouts, with that below-average batting average and those late-inning struggles, knock in 30 more runs than Pujols this season?

He hit more home runs, sometimes with runners on base?

How did he manage 48 home runs in a season that so often looked as if it would be his worst?

He swung really hard?

Presence, that’s how.

OOOOOOhhhh. Presence! Of course!

He looks massive up there, looks different than Pujols, more malicious. He swings different than Pujols, too. Whether he struck out, drilled a groundout to the leftside, or hit one of those towering home runs, Howard was, to opposing pitchers, a panic attack, each and every game.

This is a little known fact: striking out Howard is the athletic equivilent of competing in an Ironman race. When they go against the Phillies, opposing pitchers never last more than 2.5 innings, because pitching to Howard is the equivalent of throwing 75 pitches. And that’s when he strikes out. When he gets a single, it’s more like 90 pitches. When he hits a home run, the medical staff breaks out the defibulators and oxygen tank.

And whether he struck out, drilled a groundout to the leftside, or hit one of those towering home runs, he put a dent into the other side, like the fullback who deals out punishment even on a 1-yard gain.

Ordinarily, I’m not wild about mixing sports metaphors. But Donnelly writes in Philly where, unless you compare everything to football you’re speaking Greek. So we’ll let this slide.

Pujols is great. At times, especially when he’s on one of those tears, he probably fits any and all of the above description. The difference is that Howard evokes all that whether he is missing badly or tearing it up.

The formula here is simple: Howard striking out > Pujols getting a hit. And if you don’t believe that, then you’ve obviously never experienced a Ryan Howard strikeout. It’s majestic.

It’s why you might not make that swap for Pujols, even if you could. Because as good as those baseball scientists have become in statistical analysis, they can’t measure presence, not yet anyway.

They can only feel it, just like you and me.

Sports fans, I don’t know about you, but all I feel is fortunate — fortunate that Donnelly isn’t in charge of my favorite baseball team. Because, as Rob Neyer pointed out recently, “Pujols destroyed Howard in baseball’s two more important statistics, on-base percentage (.462 to .339) and slugging percentage (.653 to .543).” And Pujols hit way better with runners in scoring position. And Howard batted just .158/.306/.337 against lefties this year, while Pujols dominated lefties and righties. All Pujols was missing was presence. Maybe he can work on that in the offseason.

Charlie Manuel: He managed the Indians to the playoffs in 2001, but lost to the Mariners in the first round after taking a 2-games-to-1 lead. In his first season, Manuel and the Phillies went 88–74, only one game back of the Wild Card. In 2006, Manuel and the Phillies finished just short of the playoffs once again, this time three games back of the wild card. Last year, the Phillies won the NL East, but were swept in the postseason by the Mets Rockies. Manuel isn’t considered a master tactician, but he’s earned a reputation as a Bobby Cox-style manager who keeps his players on an even keel, even in tough times.

Ryan Howard: He has no home runs and only one RBI in the playoffs this year. And while his OBP is a stellar .438, his batting average is only .185. Simply put, Howard needs to start hitting the ball. He showed signs of breaking out of his slump last night, hitting a double in his first at bat and stroking a ground ball single in his next plate appearance. This could be a sign of big things to come…or just a big tease.

Jimmy Rollins: He’s hitting .375 with a .412 OBP in the playoffs, but in the World Series he’s 0 for 10. That won’t last. It can’t last. Can it?

Brad Lidge: The Phillies’ closer is perfect in save opportunities this year. But how long can he keep this up? He’s got to blow one eventually, right?

Steve Phillips: He picked the Phillies to win in seven games, saying, “The Phillies win because of the quality and predictability of their ace, Cole Hamels, and their bullpen.” Of course, Phillips has been wrong before. Very wrong. Very often. He picked the Mariners to not only win the west this year, but to win 92 games (they won 61). But Phillips is bound to get one right eventually, right? The law of large numbers seems to be in his favor.

Nick and Coley have already given you their MVP picks. Here are mine:

First, the American League. The runners-up:

Grady Sizemore. Smart stats love this guy, despite his crappy average this year: he was second in the AL in VORP and first in Runs Created. He also tied for fifth in homers. But it was all wasted because the Indians were so bad. Oh well.

Carlos Quentin. Let this be a lesson to him next time he wants to break his wrist to spite his bat (or whatever).

Aubrey Huff. If David Ortiz can’t win it as a DH, then Huff won’t. But you know, he finished 4th in the league in VORP, 5th in OPS and RC, and 3rd in SLG. I just thought I’d mention it, because unless you live in the 21201area code, you might have missed it.

Kevin Youkilis. Tell me if I’m wrong, but I think he was the only guy to finish in the top ten in VORP, RC, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. That’s pretty badass. Plus, he plays gold-glove worthy first base and can easily slide across the diamond to play third. Heck, you can even stick him in the outfield. Terrible facial hair, though.

But there can be only one winner, and that person is…..

Dustin Pedroia. No, he’s not the trendy pick–at least, not among the baseball eggheads who are sick of hearing about the Red Sox and their annoyingly good players and just plain annoying (but devoted!) fans. (Screw you too, jerkface!) But Pedroia had 73 extra-base hits this year (including 17 HR) this year to Joe Mauer’s* 44 (including 9 HR). Mauer, the catcher, has 1 stolen base and 1 caught-stealing. Pedroia, no real speedster, has 20 stolen bases and was also caught once. (How did he do that if he doesn’t have real wheels? The old-fashioned way: using his brain.) Pedroia led the league in runs, tied for first in hits (213), came in second by just .004 .002 [edit: after game 163] in batting average, finished third in runs created (while Mauer finished 18th there), and was fourth in total bases (with Mauer tied for 33rd). Pedroia also finished third in the AL in VORP (to Mauer’s 7th-place finish) behind Alex Rodriguez and Grady Sizemore, whose teams failed to make the playoffs this year. He played in 157 games and quietly drove in 140** runs while playing an acrobatic second base and energizing a team that suffered demoralizing injuries to their ace pitcher, cleanup hitter, and 2007 World Series MVP—while also coping with the tantrum and subsequent ouster of their most productive hitter. Without Dustin Pedroia, does anyone seriously think the Red Sox would have even made the playoffs? He’s been just as important to their playoff drive as Mauer*** was to the Twins’–and what’s more, he had a better year than Mauer. Case closed.

* I feel obligated to bring up Mauer here because so many people seems to be picking him over Pedroia, not least my colleagues at UmpBump. And look, I’m not one to undervalue a catcher’s contribution to the team, ever. But I honestly don’t know why we’re seriously talking about Mauer for MVP this year at all. (Yes, nice OBP. Very pretty. Well done. Now run along, and try to reach double digits in homers next time.)

**Now, anyone who reads this blog regularly knows that I tend to pooh-pooh RBI as a stat, but keep in mind the context here: Mauer ranked 21st in MLB in RBI opportunities. Pedroia ranked 40th. But Mauer somehow finished with just 85 RBI to Pedroia’s 140. And those who would tout Mauer’s admittedly admirable ability to take a walk, I’d like to point out that despite this ability, Mauer grounded into 21 double plays–four more than the contact-prone Pedroia. And it’s not like Pedroia just swings at anything; he’s even a bit tougher to strike out than Mauer.

***To me, it’s a wash whether it’s more “valuable” to keep your team from failing when everyone expects them to succeed or to help your team succeed when everyone expects them to fail.

On to the NL. First, the doomed-to-fail runners-up:

Ryan Howard. As Coley pointed out, he led the NL in both homers and RBI, and his team did make the playoffs. But I include him only out of a feeling of obligation.

Hanley Ramirez. As Nick pointed out, he’s the young player every GM and fantasy owner would love to have. He carried the Marlins through a surprisingly good year. His time will come.

Lance Berkman. He had a great year–114 runs scored, second in RC, third in OPS and OBP, fourth in VORP. He also had 29 homers and, somewhat surprisingly, 18 steals. But the funny thing is, there are so many guys ahead of him on the home run list–Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Delgado, etc and etc–that his great year just isn’t good enough.

Chipper Jones. Now here‘s an AVG and OBP worth writing home about: .364 and .470, respectively, plus he was one of only two players in the NL to OPS over 1.000.

And yet there is only one clear winner here. And that is the other guy to OPS over 1.000. Who is…

Albert Pujols, despite his crappy team (hey, they would’ve won the NL West!), he clearly deserves the NL MVP and it’s not even close. He’s first in VORP, first in RC, first in OPS, second in OBP, and [yawn] first in SLG. Really, the guy is sick. There’s just nothing more to say.

Let me start this post by saying that, at this juncture, with less than a month left in the regular season, I tend to throw all predictive stats out the window. With so little time left, very close divisional races such as the ones we still have in the AL Central, NL East, and NL West, could easily be decided on anomalous occurrences. Orlando Cabrera could far surpass career norms and OPS over 1.000 in September, leading the White Sox into the post season. Newly acquired Matt Stairs could start jacking home runs for the Phillies and allow them to overtake the Mets for the second year in a row. And both Brandon Webb and Danny Haren could completely implode over the final few weeks, and the Dodgers could be crowned division champs.

Are any of these specific events likely to occur? Probably not. But every year, instances akin to these do happen and factor heavily into the playoff picture. The unlikely is expected.

So this is not a post where I am going to predict how the NL East is going to play out in the month of September. Frankly, I think it’s a waste of time even trying to do so. But I do want to assess the current situation, and lay out the things we should be looking at over these final 22 games, especially since the Mets and Phils are locking horns for the last time this year in a three-game series starting tonight.

Can They Keep It Up?

METS: I shake my head a bit at the recent chatter regarding whether or not Carlos Delgado is an MVP candidate. For one, he doesn’t deserve it, and two, it’s unbelievable that I even have to argue against it considering where he was just a couple of months ago. As of the morning of June 26th, Delgado had a .229 BA, .306 OBP, and most surprising of all, a .396 SLG. That’s an OPS barely above .700 for a guy with a career OPS of .925. But during the game on the 26th against the Yankees, Delgado exploded for 2 home runs and a team record 9 RBIs. And since then, his line has been a very impressive .298/.391/.627. To me, it’s the difference in isolated power (slugging percentage minus batting average) that’s most encouraging. And surprising based on his performance during the first 3 months of the season.

PHILLIES: One area of the Phillies that I completely underestimated going into the season was their pitching. As a team, they’ve allowed  only 4.17 runs per game, which is top-three in the National League – and they’re doing it in a hitter’s park. But one guy who was not having much success for the better part of the season was Brett Myers. Through his first 17 starts, Myers was awful. He had an ERA of 5.84, had a worse K-rate (7.9/9) and a walk rate (3.9/9) than his career norms, and an incredibly high home run rate (2.12/9) as well. Then the Phillies did something a bit surprising – they optioned him to the minors in early July, and Myers agreed. And since his return to the bigs on July 23rd, Myers has been outstanding, especially in his past five starts. The Ks are back, the walks and homeruns have all but disappeared, and his ERA has reflected these positive changes (1.43 over 37 2/3 IP). I try to never put too much stock in so few innings, but that 37 2/3 IP are also about as many innings as the Phillies are going to get out of any starting pitcher from this point forth any way. So who says he can’t finish strong too? Myers takes the mound tonight against Mike Pelfrey in the series opener.

Can They Turn It Around?

METS: Pedro Martinez is a totally different pitcher these days, and the change hasn’t  been positive. When he arrived in Flushing back in 2005, he dominated. The following season, he walked a few more hitters and gave up more home runs. It was also during the 2006 campaign that the injuries began. First, it was a hip injury. Then it was his right calf. Then his left calf was torn. Finally, a torn rotator cuff. Season over. There was still some optimism in 2007 when Pedro returned. Despite a serious drop in velocity (couldn’t hit 90 mph any more), the strikeouts were still there, and the walks remained manageable. Yet, even though he had a 2.57 ERA in the five starts he made last year, his line drive % was telling a different story. Hitters were on him, evidenced by the .284 BAA. Predictably, Pedro missed significant time in 2008 as well. When he returned in June, his velocity was higher than last year (88-91mph), but the line drive % remained high – only this time, the strikeouts were down, walks were up, and he’s been giving up homeruns at a career high rate. As of this writing, his ERA is 5.07 and it’s no fluke. Can Pedro stay healthy and keep the ball down? Pedro is scheduled to get the ball on Saturday.

PHILLES: In 2007, the Phils averaged a whopping 5.51 runs scored per game. This year, they’re at 4.83, which is still good, but is also a noticeable drop. From here in New York, it seems that the media and fans are mostly attributing the decrease in production to Jimmy Rollins. But the bigger problem has been with Ryan Howard. His BA, OBP, and SLG have all decreased quite a bit for two consecutive seasons now. His sufficient HR (39) and RBI (119) numbers appear to be masking his .325 OBP. And although a .502 SLG is nothing to scoff at, it is a cause for concern when he had a .584 last year and .659 the season before that. Add it all together and his adjusted OPS is a 109 – which is a bit low for a first baseman, and especially so for a guy with Howard’s reputation. Unless he is hiding an injury, I don’t think that this is a decline just yet. He could very realistically go berserk in September.

Will They Get Noticed?

METS: I’m continually amazed at how little appreciation Carlos Beltran receives from Mets fans. Perhaps some false expectations were created by his career year in 2006 when he crushed 41 home runs in his second season in a Mets uniform. Or perhaps it’s because he’s been put into the clean-up spot 108 times this year and we’ve come to expect more power from that position in the batting order. Beltran may never hit 40 dingers again, but here’s what you can count on him for – one of the top defensive centerfielders in the game with good pop, a very strong ability to get on base and plus speed. As viewers, it’s easy to be impressed by diving catches and leaping grabs at the wall. They guys who are underappreciated are those who are so good they get to the ball fast enough so they don’t have to dive. Beltran’s one of those guys. And he’s also one of those guys who can appear to be able to win games all by himself. We haven’t seen that Beltran yet in 2008.

PHILLIES: When most people think of the Phillies lineup, the names that immediately come to mind are Howard, Rollins, Utley, and Burrell. But Jayson Werth is the guy who has impressed me most so far this year. This is a gentleman that walks, is slugging over .500, manages to steal bases without getting caught, and still somehow finds a way to give a stray badger shelter below his lower lip. Multi-tasking. Werth hasn’t been great against righties (.790 OPS) but absolutely kills lefties (1.051 OPS and 1 HR every 8.87 ABs). If he could get that OPS vs. righties up just a bit, he’d really be something pretty special.

I’ve got about an hour until game time, so I’ve gotta go on my way. Enjoy the series, UmpBumpers!

Via The fightins comes this absolute masterpiece from Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.