The leaves are changing and the hot stove is beginning to percolate. Pretty soon, we’ll be craving hot chocolate, hot totties, and Hot Shots Part Deux. So it must be time for UmpBump’s What They Need series, which was voted by UmpBump writers as the sixteenth best What They Need type posts on the internet. Let’s kick things off with  our lonely neighbors up north, the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are in quite the pickle. They ought to take some solace in the fact that they won 86 games while playing in what was the toughest division in baseball this year and the overwhelmingly primary reason for their competitiveness was their pitching and defense. As a team, the Jays allowed 3.77 runs per game, which was by far the best in all of baseball. Their pitchers did very well in the three most important aspects of pitching – missing bats, limiting walks, and keeping the ball inside the park.

But it’s highly unlikely that they could repeat such successes. For one, A.J. Burnett became a free agent after opting out of the last two years of his contract that was due to pay him $24MM. Perhaps far worse, their two prized 26-year old pitchers, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, are recovering from surgery – Marcum had Tommy John and will miss the entire 2009 season and McGowan’s return date is uncertain following surgery on his labrum, though it’s believed that he won’t be back until the season is well underway. Although this is a team that still boasts ace Roy Halladay and the somewhat promising Jesse Litsch, that’s three starters that will have to be replaced before Opening Day. And I don’t know how they plan on doing this.

One spot is probably going to be filled by David Purcey, a former first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2008 following a very impressive showing in AAA-Syracuse. While Purcey was certainly not immune to struggles in the 12 starts he made for the Jays thanks to a high walk rate, his minor league numbers over the past year or so seems to suggest that he’ll be just fine on that front in due time. But beyond Purcey, it’s anyone’s guess.

It’s certainly possible that the expected return of Casey Janssen could be another piece of the puzzle, but I am skeptical as to how reliable he could be in such a role. In 2007, Janssen surprised many by becoming an effective set-up man just one season after bombing in 17 starts. But he missed all of 2008 after requiring surgery on his labrum. His minor league numbers suggest that his strikeouts could improve, but he’s yet to show that at the big league level.

Below the surface, the Jays do have other promising young pitchers. Coming into 2008, one of their best pitching prospect was 23-year old lefty Ricky Romero. But he struggled quite a bit in the 21 starts he made for AA-New Hampshire before posting a good ERA in AAA-Syracuse. It’s clear that his control remains a major issue, walking over 4.1 hitters per nine innings. There’s also lefty Brett Cecil, but he could use some more development time in AAA and Brad Mills has only notched 32 innings in AA.

I wouldn’t be so down on the Blue Jays’ chances next year if their offense was even decent. But it’s not.  It’s increasingly clear that they made a huge mistake by signing Vernon Wells to a ridiculous 7-year contract that pays him $86MM over the last four years. Wells is going to be 30 come Opening Day and he’s already among the worst defensive center fielders in baseball. He’s going to be a corner outfielder very soon and when that happens, his bat won’t look so special. And Wells was the best bat in the lineup in 2008, which should tell you something.

So here’s what I think the Jays ought to be doing.

1. Explore what value Roy Halladay has in the trade market. With the current state of their rotation, I have a very hard time seeing them competing in 2009, with or without Doc. If they can get a major league ready bat or two (preferably at the infield corner spots) plus a good prospect, they’d be in much better position to compete in 2010. With his comparatively bargain contract ($30MM over two), he has far more value to a contending team than the Jays.
2. Find a DH that can actually hit. I don’t have too much of a problem with teams who fill their DH slot with aging hitters that rotates annually. I do have a problem with teams with DHs that can’t hit. This is the easiest spot on the Jays roster to improve if they feel that prospect Travis Snyder isn’t ready to take over full-time.

As it is currently constructed, the Jays have no positional players that rate above average and I don’t expect that to change all that much in 2009 no matter what they do. Their corner infield spots are taken up by over-the-hill hitters (Overbay and Rolen) whose main value lies in their defense. If those skills slip soon, they’re in serious trouble. I also don’t foresee their two “big” bats, Wells and Alex Rios, to get any better than they already are since they don’t walk nearly enough. I do like Adam Lind and hope that the Jays give him a regular gig to show what he can do. If they can get value back for Halladay, the Jays will still have a good rotation come 2010, with McGowan and Marcum at the top followed by Purcey and Litsch. If prospects Mills and/or Cecil develop well, then they’ll be very good. But all of that will be for naught unless their lineup actually scores some runs, which is why getting hitters in return for Doc is crucial to their future success.

- What They Need Index -

It’s a gorgeous late-summer day (at least it is here in New England) and you, young sir (or miss) should be playing outside. But since you’re not, here’s a fresh roundup of links:

Shaun Marcum has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse, swapping roster spots with lefty John Parrish. I figured it was a chance for Toronto’s future No. 2 to recover from his recent struggles and get ready for next year. But no: J.P. Ricciardi is positioning the move as a chance to get Marcum right so that the Jays can make their–excuse me–playoff run. Toronto is 12.5 back in the division and 8 back in the wild card.

Red Sox hurler Clay Buchholz was also recently optioned to the minors–but to Double-A. The Eck says we won’t be seeing The Buck any time soon.

In other AL East-playoff-hunt news, Rays fans are pissed that despite holding a 4.5 game lead over the Red Sox going into today’s action, and a dominating 10.5 game lead over the New York Yankees, they are commanding only a Rodney Dangerfield-esque amount of respect from the Worldwide Leader. Today’s game against the White Sox is also the first time in more than five years that a Tampa Bay game has been featured on Fox. (Some teams have all the luck.)

Management guru Warren Bennis has some stern words for Frank McCourt.

Yet another CC-to-NY post. I know money talks, but from everything I’ve seen and heard, Sabathia is not interested in playing in New York. He’s probably not interested in coming to Boston, either, but it’s worth noting that the Red Sox will also have plenty of money to spend this winter with Manny off the books. Since Curt Schilling didn’t throw a meaningful pitch all year, with Buchholz struggling all season, and with Josh Beckett looking like a mere mortal this year, Boston will be almost as motivated as New York to sign the ace. I say “almost” because the Sox still have a shot at making the playoffs.

How do you spell something wrong on a jersey?

UmpBump PSA: One young player at the NYBC is growing his hair long to donate it to Locks of Love. It’s commonly reported that Locks of Love is a charity that uses donated hair to make wigs for kids with cancer, but most of their patients actually suffer from alopecia areata, a genetic condition that results in hair loss. Either way, it sucks to be bald when you’re still only a kid. I’ve donated hair to the group, and their website has a very easy to read FAQ telling you how to do it if you’re interested. If you’re thinking of a post-summer chop and you’ve got 10 inches to spare, why not donate it to someone who can use it?

From the too-good-to-not-share file, Papi on Pedroia:

“He’s the best. He’s the best of the best. He’s the best thing that ever happened to this ballclub,” Ortiz said. “He’s a [expletive] great kid, dude. He’s the best. I love him. It’s great, man. I talk about Pedroia all the time to everybody because of how little he is and the way he plays the game.

“And I’ll be like, ‘Dude, seriously, he’s a bad little kid.’ Pedroia is always going to be like a 16- or 17-year-old because he’s little and he’s got a baby face, but he just rakes. Dude, he comes up with some lines, and you’ll be laughing. He hit a ball off the Green Monster once, and he came back to the dugout and said to me, ‘Hey, Big Punish, you know it’s going to rain, right?’ And I was like, ‘Why?’ He goes, ‘Didn’t you just see the lightning show?’”

Batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is a tool most useful for evaluating pitchers. While batters do show some ability to consistently hit for BABIP above or below league average from year to year, we have almost no evidence that pitchers can control the results of balls put into play against them from year to year. This means that as we approach the end of the first third of the current season, BABIP is useful to help fantasy team owners determine which pitchers are for real and which pitchers are flukes so far.

Looking at pitchers with extreme and utterly unsustainable BABIP stats (over .350 or under .250), we can easily identify 5 pitchers who are performing way above their level, and 5 pitchers who have actually pitched quite well but do not have the stats to show for it. As a fantasy team owner, you should look to trade high on the former, before they inevitably crash back down to earth, and you should look to buy low on the latter, before their luck evens out and their stats return to their actual level of performance.

Sell High – 5 Lowest BABIPs

The chart at right shows the 5 luckiest pitchers in baseball, BABIP-wise.

Shaun Marcum has looked like an ace this season, tossing some absolute gems, such as an 8-inning, 2-hit, 0-run performance against a powerful Indians lineup on May 12, and a near complete game against the even more powerful Rays on May 7. But looking at his ridiculous .194 BABIP tells us that he has actually been the luckiest pitcher in all of baseball, upon which the difference between his 2.64 ERA this season and his 4.24 career ERA prior to this season becomes much more understandable. He’s not worth keeping – trade him if you can.

With a 5-3 record and a sparkling 3.22 ERA this season, Gavin Floyd has White Sox Fans thinking that he is finally blossoming into the ace everyone has long hoped he could become, but his gift-from-the-baseball-gods .198 BABIP suggests that he is actually much closer to the pitcher of prior years who had a career ERA in the high 5’s. Maybe a White Sox fan will bite on him.

Scott Olson has teamed up with Mark Hendrickson to be one of the co-aces of a surprising Marlins team, but Hendrickson has actually been the much better pitcher; Olson’s low BABIP portends an imminent return to mediocrity. Maybe you can get something for him before he crashes and burns.

After a several-year hiatus in the bullpen, Ryan Dempster has made a triumphant return to starting pitching, posting an astonishing 2.56 ERA in 11 starts. But his crazy low BABIP will soon regress, showing Cubs fans why he is just as mediocre a pitcher as he as always been. Sell him off to a Cubs fan now.

Joe Saunders is young and good, but he is not that young, and he is not this good. He’s definitely worth keeping on your team, but lower your expectations the rest of the way. His ERA will probably be in the mid 4’s from here on out.

Buy Low – Guys Who Have Been Unlucky

Here are the five pitchers who have been most snake bitten so far – bloopers falling in or slow rollers finding holes.

Andrew Miller of the Marlins has actually pitched very well this year, but nobody knows it because he has been the unluckiest pitcher in the game so far. He is probably not even owned in your league, so if you need a pitcher, go pick him up. He should give you decent strikeouts, and with that offense and in that park, decent ERA and wins as well the rest of the way.

Bronson Arroyo is another guy who is probably not even owned in your league. But don’t be fooled by his unsightly ERA and WHIP – he is pitching just as well as he did the past two seasons, when he put up near-ace-like numbers.

Ian Snell of the Pirates broke out last year with a strong ace-like season. This year the breakout secretly continues, hidden behind some horrible bad luck. He’s still good, and should be in your fantasy rotation if you can get him.

Ubaldo Jimenez is not as bad as his numbers have shown, but he pitches half his games in Coors Field, and half of the Rockies offense is on the DL right now, so I’d avoid him.

Miguel Batista is still the same old mediocre 4th starter type he’s always been. He’ll turn it around a bit when his luck evens out, but is probably not worth owning except in AL-only leagues, especially with that terrible Mariners defense behind him.

Other guys with low BABIP (Sell, sell, sell!): Daniel Cabrera, Todd Wellemeyer, Tim Redding, Jose Contreras

Other guys with high BABIP (Buy, buy, buy!): CC Sabathia, Andy Pettite, AJ Burnett, Manny Parra