It probably comes as a surprise to no one that the Washington Nationals have a pretty abominable team once again this season, and that they are tied with the Texas Rangers for the worst record in baseball at 8-17. That is exactly the sort of performance we have come to expect from the Expos/Nats after so many years of futility.

But need this have been the case? Today I got to thinking about some of the really great talent which has come into the hands of the franchise over the years, only to later slip through its fingers, and I got to wondering, what if the Expos/Nationals had had a real owner instead of being owned by the other 29 teams from 2002-2006? Or what if MLB had hired a competent general manager rather than Omar Minaya, who seemed more intent on padding his own resume for his next job with splashy deals rather than building for the future? What if the team had been able or willing to resign even just its most obvious stars? What kind of team could the Nationals have had today, and how much would it have costed?

Thus I set about on the following thought experiment to come up with the best possible Washington Nationals 25-man roster, out of all the players that have been firmly in the team’s control since 2002. This is what I came up with:

Starting Lineup

CF Grady Sizemore
SS Orlando Cabrera
RF Vladimir Guerrero
LF Jason Bay
2B Brandon Phillips
3B Ryan Zimmerman
1B Brad Wilkerson
C Greg Zaun

Starting Rotation

SP Javier Vazquez
SP Chris Young
SP Jake Westbrook
SP Cliff Lee
SP Ted Lilly

Bench

OF Lastings Milledge
IF Maicer Izturiz
OF/IF Marlon Anderson
C Jesus Flores
OF Endy Chavez

Bullpen

CL John Rauch
RP Chad Cordero
RP Luis Ayala
RP Jesus Colome
RP Saul Rivera
RP Ray King
RP Chris Schroeder

As you can see, this team would easily be the best team in the National League. The lineup is loaded with stars and superstars (the only real hole being at first base, where Javier Vazquez would not have been traded for Nick Johnson), the bench is full of extremely useful parts, and the rotation, while perhaps lacking a true ace, is filled with no. 2s and would easily be the best in baseball (especially the way Cliff Lee is pitching this year). In the lineup, rotation, and bench only third-basemen Ryan Zimmerman and backup catcher Jesus Flores survive from the current team.

As for the bullpen, I decided to keep the entire current Nationals bullpen, which is actually one of the best bullpens the franchise has had in years. The fact is, the Expos/Nats really haven’t let any great relievers slip through their hands, the way they have with the lineup and the rotation, so this pretty much is the best possible bullpen for them.

So looking at this team, it would have to cost a fortune right? Well actually, it’s not too bad. If you add up the current salaries of all of these players, you get a total payroll of only $93.8 million. While that is certainly more than the $55 million the Nationals are paying now, it would actually only be the 14th highest payroll in baseball today, for a team that would easily be one of baseball’s very best.

In my view it would be a team that could easily reach and win the World Series. Paying $94 million for that is a bargain, and sure beats paying $55 million to have the worst record in the game.

The other day I got to asking myself, what would have happened if the Red Sox had somehow matched the Yankees’ offer and resigned Johnny Damon in the fall of 2005? So I did a little thought experiment and here is what I came up with…

I am assuming the the Red Sox would not have been willing to increase payroll above what they eventually did pay in 2006 simply to accomodate Damon’s salary. This means that the Sox would not have been able to take on the salaries of Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, whose combined 2006 salaries with the Sox are exactly equal to Damon’s 2006 salary with the Yankees. Instead, having traded Edgar Renteria to the Braves, the Red Sox would have started Hanley Ramirez and Andy Marte on the left side of the infield. They would have also had to keep Bronson Arroyo to pitch in the rotation, and would have had Anibel Sanchez to pitch in the rotation when the injuries started piling up at the end of 2006.

Without any need for Coco Crisp in centerfield and an opening at third base, the Sox would never have traded away Marte or acquired Josh Bard. Instead, they would have had Kelly Shoppach as their backup catcher. This means that they would not have panicked and traded away Cla Meredith to get back Doug Mirabelli.

There is the famous fable of the butterfly that flaps its wings in China and causes a hurricane to strike in the Carribean, or somesuch. Well, if the Red Sox had decided to do whatever it took to resign Johnny Damon, and then had the vision to give Ramirez and Marte a chance instead of trading away for injury and suckiness-prone Josh Beckett, their projected 2007 lineup and rotation would look like this:

CF Johnny Damon

SS Hanley Ramirez

DH David Ortiz

LF Manny Ramirez

RF JD Drew

1B Kevin Youkilis

2B Julio Lugo

C Jason Varitek

3B Andy Marte

P Curt Schilling

P Bronson Arroyo

P Daisuke Matsuzaka

P Jonathan Papelbon

P Anibel Sanchez/Tim Wakefield

What the Red Sox would have, then, is a team that would be significantly better than the one which they are going to be putting on the field in 2007. Instead of marginal prospect Dustin Pedroia batting ninth, the Red Sox would have super prospect Andy Marte, and mediocre Coco Crisp and Mike Lowell would be replaced by legitimate stars Johnny Damon and Hanley Ramirez. The rotation would also be significantly stronger, with Arroyo replacing Beckett, and Sanchez allowing Wakefield to move back into the sixth man/swing role. As an added bonus, the Sox would still have extremely useful pieces in Kelly Shoppach and Cla Meredith on the bench and in the bullpen. And most amazing of all, the Sox payroll would be several million dollars less than what it is going to be in 2007.

Plus, the Red Sox would almost certainly have done better in 2006 with Sanchez ready to step into the rotation when Wakefield went down, and Shoppach available to step in when Varitek got hurt.

Overall, I am quite pleased with this little thought experiment. My only real regret is that I wasn’t able to magically wish away JD Drew and Julio Lugo in the process. Alas, even if the Sox had re-signed Damon, they still would have seen a need to sign Drew and Lugo…