Maybe I’m the wrong person to be writing about any team in the AL Central. Going into the season, I was pretty darned sure that the Cleveland Indians would win the division quite handily, and that the Minnesota Twins were a fourth place team. And I totally bashed the Chicago White Sox and Kenny Williams, calling them a third-place team at best. Oh how embarrassingly wrong I was. How incredibly, utterly, hopelessly, know-nothingly wrong I was.

But so far, I think I’ve been fairly accurate in my assessment of the Detroit Tigers (Hazzah!). To me, they were a second place team that was going to miss out on the playoffs. Good, but not good enough. I wasn’t sold on Miguel Cabrera this year. His transition to a new, tougher league wouldn’t be helped by Comerica Park. I felt that both Gary Sheffield and Pudge Rodriguez’ age would eventually catch up with them. Although Pudge has slightly exceeded my expectations, Sheff’s been hurt and hasn’t produced while he was on the field. And I like Magglio Ordonez, but there was simply no way in hell that he was going to duplicate his 2007 season at the plate. Nate Robertson never was a very good pitcher to begin with, Kenny Rogers was 43 years old, and Dontrelle Willis is no one’s answer. Consequently, what we have at the All-Star break is a .500 team that’s 7 games out of first and 8 games out of the Wild Card spot.

So while I do think that the Detroit Tigers will be better than they had been before the All-Star break, I also wouldn’t be very surprised if they never get within 3 or 4 games of the Chicago White Sox for the rest of the season for two reasons - pitching and defense. Justin Verlander’s Ks are down and his walks are up. Same with Jeremy Bonderman but even more so. And although Placido Polanco and Edgar Renteria had been fine defensive options in the past, their Revised Zone Rating indicates that they might be slipping. Combine that with Miguel Cabrera at first and Carlos Guillen (who still hasn’t gotten this third base thing down), you have yourself a pretty weak defensive infield. With the pitchers not striking nearly enough guys out (averaging an MLB worst 5.3 Ks per game), your defense needs to be much better because a lot of batted balls are coming their way.

How to go about accomplishing this? Frankly, I have no idea. Unfortunately, there aren’t too many answers down on the farm. Their top prospect, pitcher Rick Porcello, is a top-ten talent. But he’s also still a teenager and in High-A. And the rest? Not too helpful, especially since they traded away Cameron Maybin to Florida in the Cabrera deal and also sent Jair Jurrjens packing to Atlanta to acquire Renteria (yeah, that one’s worked out quite well, hasn’t it?). So what they’re essentially left with is a decent crop of talent who are all in the lower classes of the minor leagues. I suppose neither Polanco nor Renteria are untradeable, but who would take these guys and give back a better player at the same position?

And here’s also a big problem - this is a team that cannot afford to look into the future right now. Aside from Curtis Granderson and Cabrera, the lineup has no young talent. The Tigers have a very small window to win with veterans the likes of Ordonez, Guillen, Pudge and Sheff.

So basically, here’s what Detroit can do: Hope for the best. Hope that the rotation will be better. Hope that Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney stay healthy and effective. And pray to god that Todd Jones can continue to prove all statistical metrics wrong by successfully closing out games despite allowing way too many runs (the man has successfully converted 86.8% of save opportunities since 2006 - all while sporting a 4.29 ERA. How do you do this???). Although I personally may not think that they can secure a playoff berth, this doesn’t mean that they should go and blow the whole thing up (which may not even be possible at this point). Because as we’ve seen, I’ve been very, very, very, very wrong before. And it’s not like the Tigers have many other options.

- What They Need Index -

As we head into Memorial Day weekend, three American League teams widely predicted to make the playoffs sit in last place in their divisions: the Yankees, the Mariners, and the Tigers. You can’t really say it’s “still early”—we’re roughly a third of the way through the season. June is looming. Soon, “slow starts” will just become “bad teams.”

While their predicament is shared, the exact causes of their suckery are diverse. Detroit’s problem is terrible pitching. The Yankees have suffered mysterious injuries to their older superstars and mysterious ineffectiveness from their young pitchers. The Mariners? Well, they have no defense, they can’t get on base, and their pitching isn’t very good either. (Gee, what else could go wrong?)

Of the three, the Mariners may be in the worst shape. They’re currently under .400. The Angels have been as good as most of us expected, even dealing with some injuries to rotation mainstays John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar. The A’s have proven the computers right. Even the wild n’ crazy Texas Rangers, who are on pace to allow something like 950 runs this season, have still managed to stay out of the cellar thanks to Seattle. It’s hard to see the Mariners making the moves necessary to right this ship during 2008; their to-do list is a mile long, and they’re 9.5 games out of first already.

Detroit’s offense has been the best in the AL Central. Unfortunately, they have one of the worst pitching staffs in the American League. Plus, their infielders are playing “musical bases” as Jim Leyland tries to find places to stick defensive liabilities Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen. But to climb back up the standings, they’ll need to get better pitching. Staff ace Justin Verlander, who struggled early, has been working on his mechanics and seems to be back on track. But Jeremy Bonderman has been a huge disappointment to fans (and fantasy owners) counting on him to be a strong No. 2, and the other starters aren’t really worth wasting the pixels on at this point. To really contend, the Tigers will have to acquire more pitching. But how will they get it? Despite their horrible start, they’re still “only” 6.5 games out of first and just two games behind Cleveland. I don’t expect the White Sox and the Twins to be able to hold off both the Indians and the Tigers much longer.

The New York Yankees are also shocked to find themselves in the cellar of the AL East. But maybe it’s not as bad as it seems. A year ago today, they were 9.5 games out of first, yet ended up making a run at the pennant in September. Today they’re just 7.5 back. Not so bad, right? Mmmm, maybe.

Last year, 9.5 games back still got them second place. This year, the landscape of the AL East has changed. The Tampa Bay Rays are five games ahead of New York and while they don’t have a Steinbrennarian budget, they’re playing with a lot of great young talent. While the Yankees do have a great lineup on paper, they may be forced to deal with more injuries than they’re used to this year. It’s one thing to lose A-Rod for a stretch; it’s quite another if they have to keep juggling hurting cornerstones such as Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada. Some of their other guys are struggling at the plate—Jason Giambi just barely clears the Mendoza line, and they only have two guys hitting over .300 (and both are hitting .302).

With their offense on the fritz, they needed to be able to rely on their pitching. Yet their only reliable pitcher has been staff ace Chien Ming Wang, who somehow doesn’t get the respect he deserves—even from his own catcher. If the Yankees want to contend this year, they’ll either have to deal some of their prized chips in a midseason trade. Does anyone really expect Carl Pavano is to be the team’s August savior? Even if by some miracle can be effective when he returns, and even if Kennedy, Hughes, and Joba-as-starter can all pitch well, none of them are going to address the Yankees’ biggest need: innings. In the AL, Yankee starters are dead last in innings pitched. If they want to oust the Rays and the Red Sox, they are going to have to acquire themselves the sort of innings-eater who can give their bullpen a rest every fifth day.

Of the League’s three cellar dwellars, New York has the most potential to claw their way back to the top of the heap. The Tigers are floundering so badly, not even Jim Leyland quite knows what to do other than scream in frustration. The Mariners? They’re just SOL. But the Yankees, on the other hand, they’ve got an owner who doesn’t know the meaning of “wait ’til next year.” They’ve proven themselves practically indestructible. You can never count them out. Even if they’re mathematically eliminated, Derek Jeter could still fly backwards around the earth, turning back time to give them just one more chance. Yes, after the nuclear Armageddon, the only things that will be left on earth are cockroaches, styrofoam cups, and the New York Yankees.

Oh my God. It’s Friday! Finally! To give you a sense of where things stand at UmpBump HQ, en route to the office this morning I took a sharp left turn with my cup o’ Joe not properly secured in the cup holder (evidently). Now I have no coffee to drink, and altogether too much coffee soaked into my pants. Never have I needed some TGIF action so badly, and I trust you, loyal readers, feel the same. And here at UmpBump, “action” = “links.”

Rumors and Rants presents the ten worst contracts in baseball today. Guess who Number 1 is?

We didn’t talk about the John Bale story (pitcher on DL frustrated with how rehab is going, punches door with pitching hand, breaks hand) here on UmpBump because we were satisfied with the level of snark at Can’t Stop the Bleeding. Obviously, he didn’t have the Crash Davis tutorial on not hitting doors with your pitching hand. (I can’t keep giving you these free lessons!)

Rob Parker of the Detroit News says “like him or not, the Tigers need Bonds.” I disagree, given that the Tigers are actually third in the AL in runs scored and in the top five in every important offensive category. The problem for Detroit is that they’ve allowed the most runs of any AL Team—yes, even more than the Rangers. I fail to see how signing Barry Bonds is going to change that. But I guess we have to have thirty different versions of the article, “Team X needs to sign Barry Bonds,” no matter how silly some of those are.

Speaking of Bonds, he helped start this recent trend of using maple bats, which can be dangerous when they shatter (see photo). I’m an ash bat purist, so I was glad to see Jeff Passan’s article calling for the end of maple bats at Yahoo! Sports. (Hat tip to ShysterBall.)

Brawl! Since bench-clearing brawls are officially one of the reasons baseball is awesome, Babes Love Baseball has the video (in slo mo!) of Richie Sexson going after Kason Gabbard for throwing a high pitch. When I saw Sexson fling the helmet at Gabbard, and Gabbard promptly curl up in the fetal position on the pitcher’s mound, I knew I was watching an instant classic. The rest of the brawl is just gravy.

Ladies… has the goods on Carlos Gomez in the wake of his hitting-for-the-cycle performance. How you doin’?

Bill Plaschke tries to clarify whether Vin Scully is retiring or not. I came away with a new determination to watch all the Dodgers games this year on MLB.TV, just in case.

And Pinstripe Alley and River Ave Blues would both like to know why all the fuss about Joba’s fist pump. Seriously, a fist-pump controversy? That seems a bit much, even to this Boston fan. Try getting yourselves a shortstop on pace for 45 errors on the season, then tell me about controversy. I would love to hear the ululating in New York if Julio Lugo played for the Yankees. (Mostly because that would mean Julio Lugo was playing for the Yankees.)

And to wrap it up, Soxaholix presents: Youkalicious!

Know something I should be reading? Let me know!