Today, Rob Neyer says let’s not anoint Pujols just yet, and poses the following question:

Maybe Pujols really is the best player in the National League. He probably is. But there’s a .365-hitting shortstop with power, playing for a contending team. Shouldn’t we at least take a deep breath and think a few thoughts?

Don’t worry, Rob. I’m on it.

The MVP Award is always tricky, because nobody can agree on the best way to measure “value.” One very good way to measure value is to look at a player’s wins over replacement, and his contribution to overall team WAR.

Let’s do this thing.

We’ll start with Pujols, whose WAR is 6.4, which represents 22 percent of the Cardinals WAR.

Then there’s Chase Utley, whose WAR is 6.8, which represents 22 percent of the Phillies WAR.

Finally, there’s Hanley Ramirez. Behold, the Marlins WAR pie. As you can see, Ramirez’s WAR is 6.9, which represents 27 percent of team WAR.

That’s right, Ramirez has the highest WAR in the league among position players, and the highest percentage of team WAR. And that’s a pretty good indication that he’s been the most valuable.

But guess what? There’s another guy worth mentioning. Tim Lincecum and his 7.2 WAR should be in the discussion for NL MVP. He’s responsible for 25 percent of the Giants WAR. Without him, San Fran would be totally screwed.

Of course, Lincecum won’t be a serious candidate despite his league leading WAR, because he’s a pitcher. But he should be.

And Ramirez won’t win the award, because Pujols has more RBI and home runs, and those are stats that voters traditionally care a lot about.

But while Pujols is great and has had a great season, there are clearly more deserving candidates.

NOTE: All WAR values come from the always awesome Fangraphs.

Earlier this week the Arizona Republic’s Paola Boivin made her case that Dan Haren should get the all-star game start instead of Tim Lincecum:

Like Haren, San Francisco’s Lincecum, 25, has pitched brilliantly, but Haren, 28, has a better ERA (2.01 vs. 2.33), better opponent batting average (.219 vs. 270) and better strikeouts-to-walk ratio (8.06 vs. 4.38). Lincecum has a better record (10-2 vs. 9-5) and more strikeouts (149 to 129).

It’s an argument of semantics, a divisive debate about statistics.

After conceding that both pitchers are more or less equally qualified, Boivin proceeded to argue that Haren should get the start because “he’s a reality check” and is unafraid to challenge his teammates when they’re struggling.

But you know what, Paola? Lincecum has an awesome mullet. And when the choice is between two similar pitchers, one who’s a clubhouse leader and one who’s got phenomenal hair that is half ironic fashion statement and half tribute to teammate and 300 game winner Randy Johnson, I’m going with the hair every time.

I’m glad to see Manuel feels the same.

Now, if Haren took a page from teammate Clay Zavada and grew an awesome handle-bar mustache, that might tip the scales a bit.

Since 1999, there has been an annual tradition among a group of my friends whereby I name a preseason list of “Unquestioned Aces” and then everyone questions my list.  This year being the 10th anniversary of this tradition, I thought I would share the list with UmpBump as well.

My personal definition of an “unquestioned ace” differs from the typical usage of calling the best pitcher on each team that team’s “ace” by default, even if they are not that good. “Unquestioned aces” are true number-one starters: pitchers a manager would gladly start against anyone, anytime. In any given year there are only a small handful of such pitchers in all of baseball.

Being named an “unquestioned ace” is about more than just numbers. A pitcher has to have a certain extra something that strikes fear into the hearts of batters.  However, an unquestioned ace is generally a pitcher who can be relied upon to pitch at least 200 innings, win at least 16 games, and post an ERA of at least 3.75 or better.

The “unquestioned” part is the most important criterion, however.  There must be absolutely no question in anyone’s mind that the said pitcher is a true ace.  Even a rumor of injury or loss of velocity in spring training is enough to bump someone from the list, as long as there are any questions about their ability to dominate in the upcoming season. It generally also means that a pitcher has pitched at least two superlative seasons in a row,  as otherwise there will almost surely be questions as to whether the previous season was a just fluke or not.

This years unquestioned aces are:

Roy Halladay
Tim Lincecum
Roy Oswalt
CC Sabathia
Johan Santana
Brandon Webb

So what do you think? Did I leave anyone out? Did I include someone undeserving?

Aces from previous years after the jump…

Read the rest of this entry »

I’m not going to waste your time with a big lead in. Game 2 between the Phillies and Dodgers starts in an hour. So let’s get right to it.

National League

I love Brad Lidge. He’s like a brother to me. And without him the Phillies wouldn’t be playing October baseball right now. But he pitched in 69 innings this season. By comparison, CC Sabathia pitched in 130 innings during his half season in the NL. So I have a hard time giving the award to Lidge, this season’s most dominant reliever, when there are a handful of starters who had equally dominant seasons and pitched in far more innings.

For me, this boils down to a race between three guys: Brandon Webb, Johan Santana and Tim Lincecum. Webb led the NL in wins, which is something he can feel good about. But it’s not something I value particularly highly. Santana led the league in ERA, which is a more important metric, but still not the end-all-be-all. Lincecum was second in wins and ERA, as well as VORP among NL pitchers, and he led the league in strikeouts by a lot, led the league in K/9 by a full run, led the league in pitching win shares and led the league in pitching runs created. He’s got my vote.

American League

In the AL it’s really a two horse race. And it’s a dead heat. Cliff Lee led the league in wins and ERA, was second in WHIP and was ninth in strikeouts. Roy Halladay led the league in WHIP, was second in ERA and wins and third in strikeouts. The two pitchers tied for the league lead in pitching runs created. They both had the same number of quality starts (23).

Maybe one of these pitchers benefited disproportionately from above average defensive support? In a word, no. Lee’s ERA, independent of the defense behind him, was 2.95, good for first in the AL. Halladay’s DIPS was 3.07, second in the league.

Halladay led the league in innings pitched. Lee was a distant second, 23 innings behind Halladay. Lee was also second in complete games, with 4. Halladay led the league in complete games with 9.

This really is a toss up. I’ll give it to Halladay, because he had a lot more strikeouts, which is the best result a pitcher can achieve, and he threw more complete games. But in a perfect world these two guys would share the award.

If you’re a loyal UmpBump reader (thanks!) then you would know that the staff likes sabermetrics. Well I would include myself in that bunch, except I’ve been slacking on the mathematics of it all, and don’t really know much about PECOTA, Runs Created, etc, except to say that it’s dense stuff.

Well, since I’m scheduled to pick my Cy Young candidates, I figured I might as well take a crack at this saber stuff and do some calculatin’ to backup my claims. So as to not diminish the value of my own criteria, I’ll take stats into consideration, but I deem it important to consider the overall success of the team. How will I determine this? Well, simple really, did the team make the playoffs, and/or what percentage did the pitcher’s wins constitute of the overall team victories.

National League

I decided to take a look at the senior circuit first, and from the start, there’s a handful of names constantly atop the stat categories: Tim Lincecum, Johan Santana, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Webb, and near the periphery, Dan Haren and Cole Hamels.

In my (humble) opinion, ERA and Wins (with a 200 IP minimum) are obligatory stat criteria to make a preliminary evaluation of pitchers. So looking at the top three in each, we narrow the list to: Santana (2.53, 16), Lincecum (2.62, 17), Dempster (2.96, 17), and Webb (3.30, 22). To further thin the list, lets take a look at some sabermetrics: Only Webb and Santana are in the top three in positive WPA (with Lincecum at a very close fourth), and in overall Win Probability Added, Lincecum lead the NL with a 4.59 index, followed by Santana, Dempster, and Webb.

With those two breakdowns in mind, we can take Dempster out of the list, and by looking at one more sabermetric, the player leverage index, we can eliminate Santana since his pLI is below 1. And lastly, lets look at each players win total and what percentage of his team’s wins it represents: The Giants won 72 games, meaning Lincecum’s 17 are equivalent to 23% of the wins. The Diamondbacks won 80 games, and Webb’s 22 have a 27.5% share of their wins.

Brad Lidge is my stud pick for NL Cy Young

Now, taking relievers into account, and paying close attention to the closers, out of those with more than 30 saves, only the Phillies’ Brad Lidge cracks the top 3 in WPA (5.37); meaning he’s the only one worthy of Cy Young consideration (again, IMHO).

It’s a close call. For one, neither the Diamondbacks or Giants made the playoffs, and the Phillies did advance to the NLCS, thanks in part to Lidge closing out the Brewers. Lidge did have a 1.95 ERA and pitched 69.3 innings, and even though his 41 saves didn’t lead the league (Jose Valverde had 44), they’re good for a second-place tie with the Giants’ Brian Wilson (oh, and by the way, he blew zero save opportunities).

If we follow our sabermetric gut instinct, he beat out Lincecum in overall WPA, so I think we’ve reached the conclusion that makes the most sabermetric sense: Brad Lidge gets my vote for NL Cy Young, with Lincecum second and Webb third.

American League

Cliff Lee was just that good; he's the AL Cy Young in my camp.

Keeping the dense matter to a minimum, let’s do the math for the junior circuit. So filtering the top three in ERA and Wins we get: Cliff Lee (2.54, 22), Roy Halladay (2.81, 20), John Lester (3.21, 16), and Mike Mussina (3.37, 20). It’s safe to eliminate Lester from the list based on the fact that the other three starters won 20 or more games. To further filter the list, only Lee and Halladay cracked the top three in WPA with 5.96 and 3.47 respective indexes.

Let’s not forget percentage of wins: Lee’s wins represented 27% of the Indians’ wins this year (81-81) while Halladay’s accounted for 23% the Blue Jays’ victories.

Again, to keep relievers in the mix, I’ll take a look at the top closer this year in the American League, Francisco Rodriguez. He set the record for saves in a regular season with 62, had a 2.24 era (only good for fourth best among relievers), but his WPA barely puts him in the top five, with a 3.33 index.

The Angels did make the post season, while the Indians had a very disappointing year, but Lee’s numbers were extremly good, far above the best; he only lost three games and won 71% of his starts. Had it not been for that sheer dominance I’d vote for Rodriguez, but Cliff Lee gets my vote for Cy Young in the AL, with Rodriguez second and Halladay third.

Like I said before, I hadn’t really used sabermetrics to gauge my appreciation of player performance, and considering it was my first time really looking at traditional stats mixed with sabermetrics to make an evaluation, I have to say I’m sold. That stuff does not lie.

In baseball there are two kinds of suckage – ordinary, run-of-the-mill “suckage,” and spectacular, 100-loss level “total suckage.” In the past two weeks, the San Francisco tranwreck express seems to have veered off the track of awesome HD flatscreen total suckage and back onto the track of boring, basic cable suckage.

On one hand, the team is in the throes of a five-game losing streak, but on the other hand, several positive developments have occurred which have made GM Brian Sabean so giddy with optimism that he is now declaring publicly that the Giants are still in contention this year and that he will not be trading away any veterans this season.

Let’s look at what has gone the Giants’ way of late…

- Barry Zito has returned from his 10-day banishment to the bullpen (during which time he did not make a single appearance), and miraculously reeled off three decent starts in a row, all of which he rightly deserved to win (although, of course, the lousy offense behind him insured all three wound up as Giants losses).

- Omar Vizquel made his triumphant return from the disabled list and is off to a blazing start at the plate, posting a .360 batting average and a .907 OPS in his first 8 games.

- Better yet for the team, Vizquel’s return and the “emergence” of Manny Burriss as a middle infielder who can post an on-base percentage of at least .260 means that single-A shortstop Brian Bocock has been optioned to Fresno where he can now be overmatched at the plate by triple-A pitchers rather than major-league pitchers.

- After a magical hamstring injury which helped him magically recover his hitting stroke, Ray Durham has gone on a 10 for 19 tear which has seen his batting average skyrocket from .247 to .300.

- Lone rotational standout Tim Lincecum continues to be one of the awesomest starters in the game, leading the entire major leagues with 63 strikeouts and placing third with a 1.92 ERA. Of course, he has to be nearly perfect with the terrible offense and defense he has playing behind him, but is there any more watchable starting pitcher in the majors right now?

- After spending the first month of the season last in the major leagues in runs per game, the Giants have finally clawed themselves into 29th place, ahead of the even more woeful San Diego Padres.

So with all this good news, can we really call Brian Sabean crazy for thinking the Giants might still have a chance to contend this season?

Yes. Why yes we can. The poor man has clearly lost his marbles and is now living in Magic Happy Land, where chocolate rivers flow clean and sweet, Roger Clemens retired quietly in 1996, and the presently 17-28 San Francisco Giants are going to make a playoff run in 2008. Judging from this picture, apparently they also have a cute white puppy there too.

Park adjusted, the Giants still have the worst offense in baseball. Their defense is also terrible, 26th in the majors in defensive efficiency. Legendary gloveman Omar Vizquel is back, but it is hard to picture him improving the team’s defense, given that their gloves were the only reasons Bocock and Burriss were anywhere near a major league ballpark, and that Vizquel is playing with a knee brace, on the heels of a major knee surgery, at age 42.

The Giants have the second worst record in the majors, and are on pace for 101 losses. But Brian Sabean thinks they are still in contention, and won’t be trading any of his aging veterans for young talent. No wonder he was recently voted the worst general manager in the game today.

Another week of matchups has come and gone in UmpBump’s head-to-head fantasy league. Must be time for our weekly rundown of who’s helping us out and who’s kicking us to the curb.

Sarah: Say what you will about the managerial style of Joe Torre—and here at UmpBump, we have—but I would like to take a minute and thank that good man for putting on the double steal so many times last week. I’ve got three young Dodgers on my team, and largely thanks to Torre telling them to run, run, run like the wind, I racked up 10 steals—and would have had 12 if Jacoby Ellsbury had shown up in the lineup before Sunday’s game (he was a last-minute add when David Ortiz was scratched). Nonetheless, I was content as my offense exploded for 44 runs, 58 RBI, and 112 total bases and carried me to a 7-4 win over Coley and back up to third place in our 12-team league. Not bad, considering that my pitchers’ ERAs looked like this: 1.46, 4.50, 4.50, 5.14, 6.00, 6.00, 7.50 12.00, 32.40. I look forward to coughing up the pitching categories for the foreseeable future, as my ace, Yovani Gallardo, tore his ACL bumping into someone. Hey, at least my staff is still better than Detroit’s. Blazingly hot: Matt Kemp Regular hot: Xavier Nady, Russell Martin, Ryan Braun, Matt Cain Tepid-to-cool: Gallardo, Johnny Cueto, Eric Gagne, Kyle Lohse Ice Cold: Troy Glaus.

Coley: These are dark days indeed for the fantasy team. Nevermind that I got beat by Sarah, a fantasy virgin. I got beat by Sarah – a girl! Now I’m in last place, deep in the cold, dark cellar, grasping desperately for a light switch. It’s all very perplexing. Aside from the recent injury to Jorge Posada, my team has been relatively healthy. Many of them are simply underperforming. I don’t know how Carlos Pena managed to hit .287 last year, I really don’t. Because he swings for the fences on every pitch. And what happened to Vlad Guerrero? Does anybody know? Fortunately, Jose Reyes seems on the verge of emerging from his funk. Maybe he could share some positive vibes with his teammate, Oliver Perez, who fell off the map this week. Oh, and I don’t mean to rant, but can somebody explain how I managed to crush Sarah in ERA, WHIP, and K/BB, but lose Wins? Don’t bother, I’ll tell you how: I got one win, and that came from my closer, Brad Lidge. Pathetic. Hot: Brad Lidge Not: the rest of my team.

Alejandro: Another week, another Center Field Stud win. Don’t look now, but a team that was at one point in the very bottom of the standings is suddenly near the happy middle (a place I’ll probably stay at for a good chunk of the season as I’m six games behind 6th place). This week my offense checked in in all six categories, but my pitching continues to be my weak spot. Can’t expect Tim Lincecum to be a stud every week (no wins, but he did manage to rack up 9 Ks and a 2.08 ERA). I picked up Fred Lewis, Emil Brown and Edwin Jackson, hoping to get something good out of them. So far, only Fred Lewis seems to be paying off, though Brown had a couple of games where he seemed unstoppable. Edwin Jackson got smacked around by the Red Sox, but he may rebound so I’ll hang on to him for now. Hot: Connor Jackson, Chipper Jones, Carlos Lee, Aaron Rowand, Magglio Ordoñez, Fred Lewis. Not: A.J. Pierzynski, Dustin Pedroia, Emil Brown, Alex Gordon, Kerry Wood, Edwin Jackson.

Paul: (Just for kicks, I think I’m going to file my fantasy report pretending to be Mr. Jacopo “J” Peterman. So here we go.) Elaine, do you know what it’s like to look up and see nothing? It’s ab-so-lute-ly damning. No mountains to climb, no sky to gaze at, no rufous-bellied eagles to inspire you… When you’ve achieved perfection – total and un-com-pro-mised per-fection – all you can do is sigh. That’s exactly what it’s like being in first place of the UmpBump.com fantasy baseball league, Elaine. Here I am, wearing my Mongolian-themed mocassins, knowing full well that this road I travel can only lead me to some place that’s already all too familiar, or worse. Yes, it’s true. ElDuquesInjuryReport was victorious once again this week, vanquishing the comically named Pirates in 08! (how delightfully absurd!). My heroic pitching staff had performed admirably. Why, not even the most accomplished musketeer in all of Hongwu Emperor’s armies could have been more precise! Greg Smith was just brilliant in both of his outings (14 IP, 6H, 3R, 15Ks), and Andy Sonnanstine was equally stellar (8IP, 6H, 1R, 5K) in his lone appearance. And a hearty welcome back to Scott Kazmir. While I was correct to leave you on the bench for your first start of the season, I’ll be counting on you to help lead the club to Xanadu! Hot: Geovany Soto, Andy Sonnanstine, Greg Smith. Not: Jhonny Peralta, Jim Thome, C.C. Sabathia.

This is another in our occasional series of posts wherein we update you on the status of the nonstop schadenfreude express which is the 2008 San Francisco Giants…

As virtually everyone knows by now, $126 million man Barry Zito has been summarily banished to the bullpen after beginning the season 0-6. But what I still don’t get is why the Giants would do this, as it seems like the worst possible option. By all accounts Zito is fully healthy, and given that the Giants have no chance whatsoever of contending this season, the best way to get any return on their investment is to let him eat innings as a starter. Just put him on a 100-pitch count and run him out there, no matter how many runs he gives up. On the other hand, if they want Zito to work on his mechanics in a less pressurized environment, then they should get him to agree to go down to the minor leagues, where he can start every 5th day against AAA hackers and get his confidence back. And if he won’t go down, a third option would be to just do what every other team does and make up an injury so you can DL him and then give him “rehab starts” in the minors. But the last place you want a pitcher with an 80-mph fastball is in your bullpen, where he is going to be useless in anything other than once-a-week mop-up relief, won’t get enough work to work out his mechanics, and will be eating up a spot on the roster.

In other rotation news, Kevin Correia has gone down with an oblique strain which will sideline him until at least the end of May, and Noah Lowry’s recovery from a nerve injury in his forearm is going much slower than expected. Originally he was expected back in mid-April, but now Giants athletic trainer Dave Groeschner is saying, “We’re probably going to have to shut him down for a significant amount of time,” and his return date is indefinite. Pat Misch has been called up to replace Correia, but it is uncertain who will replace Zito.

Meanwhile, lone rotational standout Tim Lincecum was handed what should be the first of many losses this year, losing to the Rockies despite a strong 7-inning, 3 ER performance, because his offense could only muster 2 runs behind him.

As for that Giants offense, they remain last in the Major Leagues at 3.2 runs scored per game. Although they have somehow been able to compile a record of 13-16 so far, good for third place in the NL West, their run differential would produce an expected 19 losses, tied for worst in the game with the Padres, so the Giants have been lucky so far to do as well (?) as they have.

The bloom is off the rose for emergency minor-league call-up John Bowker. After a blistering major league debut in which he batted .364 with 3 homers and 9 RBI in his first 9 games, inspiring hope in Giants fans that they might have secretly had a hitting prospect they never knew about, the guy who had never played above AA before this year fell off a cliff, going 3 for his next 31, and is now batting .193/.217/.404 as reality reasserts itself.

Your obligatory Brian Bocock batting update – .157/.280/.171 for a mind-bogglingly low .452 OPS.

In steroid-related news, one of the lone bright spots in the Giants organization this season – catcher Eliezer Alfonzo – who had been on the verge of a call-up after batting .306 with 3 homers and 14 RBI for AAA Fresno, was suspended by MLB for 50 games for testing positive for taking a banned substance, which Alfonzo has admitted doing.