The leaves are changing and the hot stove is beginning to percolate. Pretty soon, we’ll be craving hot chocolate, hot totties, and Hot Shots Part Deux. So it must be time for UmpBump’s What They Need series, which was voted by UmpBump writers as the sixteenth best What They Need type posts on the internet. Let’s kick things off with  our lonely neighbors up north, the Toronto Blue Jays.

The Blue Jays are in quite the pickle. They ought to take some solace in the fact that they won 86 games while playing in what was the toughest division in baseball this year and the overwhelmingly primary reason for their competitiveness was their pitching and defense. As a team, the Jays allowed 3.77 runs per game, which was by far the best in all of baseball. Their pitchers did very well in the three most important aspects of pitching - missing bats, limiting walks, and keeping the ball inside the park.

But it’s highly unlikely that they could repeat such successes. For one, A.J. Burnett became a free agent after opting out of the last two years of his contract that was due to pay him $24MM. Perhaps far worse, their two prized 26-year old pitchers, Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan, are recovering from surgery - Marcum had Tommy John and will miss the entire 2009 season and McGowan’s return date is uncertain following surgery on his labrum, though it’s believed that he won’t be back until the season is well underway. Although this is a team that still boasts ace Roy Halladay and the somewhat promising Jesse Litsch, that’s three starters that will have to be replaced before Opening Day. And I don’t know how they plan on doing this.

One spot is probably going to be filled by David Purcey, a former first-round pick who made his big league debut in 2008 following a very impressive showing in AAA-Syracuse. While Purcey was certainly not immune to struggles in the 12 starts he made for the Jays thanks to a high walk rate, his minor league numbers over the past year or so seems to suggest that he’ll be just fine on that front in due time. But beyond Purcey, it’s anyone’s guess.

It’s certainly possible that the expected return of Casey Janssen could be another piece of the puzzle, but I am skeptical as to how reliable he could be in such a role. In 2007, Janssen surprised many by becoming an effective set-up man just one season after bombing in 17 starts. But he missed all of 2008 after requiring surgery on his labrum. His minor league numbers suggest that his strikeouts could improve, but he’s yet to show that at the big league level.

Below the surface, the Jays do have other promising young pitchers. Coming into 2008, one of their best pitching prospect was 23-year old lefty Ricky Romero. But he struggled quite a bit in the 21 starts he made for AA-New Hampshire before posting a good ERA in AAA-Syracuse. It’s clear that his control remains a major issue, walking over 4.1 hitters per nine innings. There’s also lefty Brett Cecil, but he could use some more development time in AAA and Brad Mills has only notched 32 innings in AA.

I wouldn’t be so down on the Blue Jays’ chances next year if their offense was even decent. But it’s not.  It’s increasingly clear that they made a huge mistake by signing Vernon Wells to a ridiculous 7-year contract that pays him $86MM over the last four years. Wells is going to be 30 come Opening Day and he’s already among the worst defensive center fielders in baseball. He’s going to be a corner outfielder very soon and when that happens, his bat won’t look so special. And Wells was the best bat in the lineup in 2008, which should tell you something.

So here’s what I think the Jays ought to be doing.

1. Explore what value Roy Halladay has in the trade market. With the current state of their rotation, I have a very hard time seeing them competing in 2009, with or without Doc. If they can get a major league ready bat or two (preferably at the infield corner spots) plus a good prospect, they’d be in much better position to compete in 2010. With his comparatively bargain contract ($30MM over two), he has far more value to a contending team than the Jays.
2. Find a DH that can actually hit. I don’t have too much of a problem with teams who fill their DH slot with aging hitters that rotates annually. I do have a problem with teams with DHs that can’t hit. This is the easiest spot on the Jays roster to improve if they feel that prospect Travis Snyder isn’t ready to take over full-time.

As it is currently constructed, the Jays have no positional players that rate above average and I don’t expect that to change all that much in 2009 no matter what they do. Their corner infield spots are taken up by over-the-hill hitters (Overbay and Rolen) whose main value lies in their defense. If those skills slip soon, they’re in serious trouble. I also don’t foresee their two “big” bats, Wells and Alex Rios, to get any better than they already are since they don’t walk nearly enough. I do like Adam Lind and hope that the Jays give him a regular gig to show what he can do. If they can get value back for Halladay, the Jays will still have a good rotation come 2010, with McGowan and Marcum at the top followed by Purcey and Litsch. If prospects Mills and/or Cecil develop well, then they’ll be very good. But all of that will be for naught unless their lineup actually scores some runs, which is why getting hitters in return for Doc is crucial to their future success.

- What They Need Index -

Time for another addition of fantasy fun. In this chapter, Paul returns from Japan, Sarah clinches a playoff birth, Alejandro squeaks by and Coley accepts his fate.

Sarah: The Somerville Green Sox clinched a playoff spot this week with a resounding 12-0 win over the long-dormant “caitlin grace” squad, who is apparently so lazy she cannot even capitalize her team name, much less be bothered to alter her roster–her active roster still includes Victor Martinez (DL), Khalil Greene (DL), Casey Kotchman (NA), Rafael Furcal (DL), Chris Young (DL), Dustin McGowan (DL), and Franklin Morales (NA). But hey, I ain’t complainin’. My team was smokin’ hot this week, racking up 7 saves, 117 total bases, 52 K’s, and so on. Plus my averages were pretty good too: .352 OBP, 2.51 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 3.25 K/BB. The only scary moment came when Ian Kinsler flirted with season-ending surgery (he’s now set to return to the lineup sometime early in September). I’ve picked up Mike Aviles in the meantime. Hot: Everyone, but especially Vernon Wells. Not: No one. There were only people who were slightly less than totally scorching. It was that kind of week.

Coley: I know how my team is bad. I just can’t figure out why. Why was this the season when Aaron Harang went from reliable horse to hittable mule? Why did Josh Beckett and Carlos Lee have to get injured as soon as I traded for them? Why did Brett Myers and Oliver Perez start so terribly? And why does my team, which is probably the strongest team I’ve ever had on paper, continue to lose? How can a pitching staff with Beckett, Harden, Dice-K and a resurgent Myers be so bad? How can an offense led by Alfonso Soriano, Hanley Ramirez, Mark Teixeira, Connor Jackson and Vlad Guerrero be so meh? I will be forever haunted by this fantasy season. Hot: Bengie Molina, Mark Teixeira, Vlad Guerrero, Rich Harden, Brett Myers. Not: Brandon Lyon, Jason Giambi.

Paul: Be honored. I just got back to my apartment after being in Japan for the last week. And what do I do first? I come to my laptop and type up my (albeit belated) fantasy post. And while I do love my fantasy baseball, I have to admit that I paid no mind at all this past week since I just didn’t have the time to be changing lineups and checking results. And whenever I’m in Japan, my priority first and foremost is food. Lots and lots of food. Anyhow I just saw the results from this past week about ten minutes ago and I was pleasantly surprised that my team didn’t need any attention whatsoever, winning my week 11-1 against Ania and her team with the really long name. But it’s a bummer that both Justin Duchscherer and George Sherrill hit the DL without me knowing. Now I’ve gotta play some catch-up on the waiver wire. Word to your mutha. Hot: Brian Roberts, David Wright, Matt Holliday, Cliff Lee. Not: Kosuke Fukudome, Troy Tulowitzki, my team’s necessity for a manager that pays attention.

Alejandro: Another week, another narrow victory over one of the two cellar-dwelling teams in the UmpBump Fantasy League. Freebase my balls is second to last, and only because caitlin grace (what’s up with inproper capitalization guys?) doesn’t bother anymore. And still, my Center Field Stud barely wins 6-5. It was so bad, I lost in the Stolen Base category 2-1. The offense was there, especially now that I know Alexei Ramirez will win ROTY (yes, Paul, Longoria posted the numbers, but he’s hurt). I have a hole in left field since Carl Crawford went down, and Garret Anderson’s hit streak is useless in our league. A big shout out to Mike Pelfrey who pitched two consecutive complete games (even though the second one counts towards this week). Hot: A.J. Pierzynksi, Alexei Ramirez, Jermaine Dye (live and die by the White Sox, eh CF Stud?), Yunel Escobar, Tim “no contest” Lincecum, Manny Parra, Mike Pelfrey, Kerry Wood, B.J. Ryan. Not: Jon Garland, Vicente Padilla, Garret Anderson, Josh Hamilton, Magglio Ordoñez.

Is there anything more exciting than the baseball free agency period? That was a retorical question. Of course there isn’t.

Let’s take a look at some of the recent signings and what they mean:

1. Gil Meche to the Royals. If Meche tries to explain his decision to sign with Kansas City as being motivated by anything other than money, he should be struck by lightning. He turned down the chance to play in great, historic baseball towns for (presumably) competative teams and make $40 million for the chance to play for the Royals and make an extra $5 million. On the brightside, I hear they’ve got really good bbq in Kansas City, and he’ll have plenty of time to play golf in October.

2. Freddy Garcia to the Phillies. This seems like a good deal for both sides. Phillies fans are no doubt stoked about this trade, because Garcia is a proven starter and the Phils didn’t even have to give up Aaron Rowand, who is beloved in Philly. But there’s a chance this could end up turning into a repeat of the Kevin Millwood trade and the “player to be named” the Phils sent to Chicago will turn into the next Cy Young.

3. Speaking of Gil Meche and the Phillies, let’s talk about the Blue Jays, who lost out on signing Meche and now might want to turn to the Phillies for starting pitching. The Phils are looking to move SP John Lieber and would love to get a big bat in return. The Blue Jays are looking to move Vernon Wells, no matter how often they deny it (they didn’t even put Wells on their promotional materials this year!). The Jays wouldn’t trade Wells for Lieber straight up, but Lieber and a prospect might do it. And Wells and Ryan Howard in the same lineup would be SCARY.