This should come as no surprise to anyone who knows anything about the Milwaukee Brewers, but this is a team that is still in need of at least one more SP capable of posting league-average numbers.

Despite signing the oft-underrated Randy Wolf to replace Braden Looper (who by the way did his very best to provide yet another example that a W-L record is a bad way to judge a pitcher)  the rotation still has two replacement-level starters in Jeff Suppan and Manny Parra.

Suppan especially has become a thorn in their side (yes, even Prince Fielder’s gut can feel that thorn). The 35-year old Soup was signed to a ridiculous $42M/4 deal in December of 2006 and has followed that up with one decent season (2007) and two gross ones. Assuming that the Brewers hold steady at a roughly $80M payroll in 2010, Jeff Suppan’s salary is going to take up 15.6% of that alone in 2010. And with the track record of 35-year old pitchers turning it around after a 3-year decline, no one should assume that Suppan will be much of an asset.

But there’s just that weird sentiment that seems to pervade the minds of baseball team owners that salary should dictate playing time, which never made much sense to me. And assuming that Suppan is untradeable, he’s going to stay in that rotation. So if any improvement’s going to come, it’s at the expense of Manny Parra, who’s no ace himself and constantly underperforms his FIP.

So who will it be? There seems to be talk of Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, or Jon Garland but unless they sign a deal for far less than what I imagine it would cost to get them (which has been happening this year), I’d say no thanks. Instead, I’d argue for trading Corey Hart, who I believe is overvalued among fans and very possibly some front offices. If Hart can be dealt (he’s a former All Star!) for a decent arm, moving Casey McGehee to right (assuming he can handle it, of course) and signing Miguel Tejada on the cheap to play third would improve the team without sacrificing much offense.

Even without such a move, the team’s defense could very well have improved despite the departures of Mike Cameron and J.J. Hardy. Cam’s replacement will be Carlos Gomez, among the best defensive CFers in the game. It’s clear that Gomez is a worse hitter than some pitchers, but his range in center should help make up for a lot of that. Another addition is prospect Alcides Escobar. He probably won’t be winning any Silver Sluggers anytime soon but his defense at short has been very highly regarded.  While Ryan Braun in left and Casey McGehee at third will still piss pitchers off every now and then, at least they can rely on the guys in center and short to help them out.

The NL Central is winnable although the Cards remain the favorites at this point. The ideal situation would be to somehow get Suppan out of the rotation but I don’t expect that to happen. But finding a cost-effective alternative to Manny Parra should help alleviate that issue some. The Brewers can live with Suppan or Parra as the fifth starter. But they won’t survive if they count on them both.

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The 2009 Tigers finished 9 games over .500 and tied for first place. That’s the good news. The bad news is Detroit lost a one-game playoff to the Twins. What’s worse, the Tigers were lucky to get that far. Detroit won 86 games despite giving up more runs than they scored. That’s not likely to happen again.

This offseason, motivated by a desire to shed payroll, the Tigers parted ways with several of their top players. They traded Edwin Jackson to the Diamondbacks. They sent Curtis Granderson to the Yankees. They declined to offer arbitration to Placido Polanco, Brandon Lyon, and Fernando Rodney, and all departed via free agency.

So far, the Tigers have signed one free agent of note: closer Jose Valverde. They also acquired some talented young players in the aforementioned trades.

Detroit landed RHP Max Scherzer, LHP Daniel Schlereth, LHP Phil Coke, and OF Austin Jackson.

Coke and Schlereth are hard-throwing middle relievers and neither figures to make a huge splash, though both should make the opening day roster. Scherzer is a starter who misses bats and has the potential to be an ace, if he can stay healthy (though most scouts doubt that he will). Meanwhile, Austin Jackson should be a serviceable replacement for Granderson. Here’s what ESPN’s Kieth Law had to say about Jackson:

Jackson is a good-but-not-great athlete. He’s an above-average runner, but not a burner; he’s wiry, but the power that has been projected has yet to materialize. His game played up in the low minors because he controlled the strike zone well for a young, inexperienced hitter. His plate discipline has gotten worse as he’s risen the ladder, and he may need a few years in the majors before he’ll post acceptable OBPs. But he can handle center field defensively and should produce enough at the plate to be an asset even in 2010, during which he’d earn the minimum salary.

What else do the Tigers need?

Detroit’s pitching was pretty woeful in 2009 (just look at the Tigers’ FIP, which was the third-highest in the AL). The team’s ERA was greatly bolstered by excellent team defense. Scherzer has the potential to improve the team’s staff all by himself in 2010. But the big difference-maker could be Jeremy Bonderman, who has struggled with injuries the past few seasons but could be a number 3 starter if healthy. Bonderman walks a few too many batters, but he’s also capable of racking up strikeouts.

A rotation fronted by Justin Verlander, Rick Porcello, Scherzer and a healthy Bonderman would be an admirable staff, and could help the Tigers keep pace in 2010. A little of the luck they enjoyed in 2009 wouldn’t hurt either.

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The Rangers have a lot of questions entering 2010. Can Josh Hamilton stay healthy? Will Julio Borbon transition smoothly to the majors? Will Neftali Feliz thrive as a starter? Can Vlad Geurero rediscover some of his power? Can Chris Davis hit his weight? Has Khalil Greene overcome anxiety problems? Will the Rangers hitters struggle now that hitting coach Rudy Jaramillo has left for Chicago? And so on.

But Texas has a lot going for it, too. This is a team that finished 12 games over .500 last season, in second place. Moreover, the first-place Angels are unlikely to repeat last season’s success. The Rangers’ time is now.

What does Texas need to get over the hump? Better pitching, but what else is new? Feliz looks primed to be the organization’s first decent home-grown arm in ages, but it’s unclear if he’ll start the year in the rotation. Harden misses a ton of bats when healthy, but he’s hardly ever healthy. Feldman won 17 games in 2009, but everyone projects he’ll regress. Brandon McCarthy? Yeah, he’s got potential — Bill James projects he’ll pitch 163 innings and win 9 games, 2 more than last season. Then there’s Tommy Hunter and Matt Harrison, two young arms that seem destined for mediocrity.

The Rangers have good defense and decent offense that figures to improve if Hamilton stays on the field and Davis lives up to the hype. Texas just needs good production from it’s bench and decent contributions from Feliz and Harden and they could find themselves playing meaningful baseball in October.

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The Rays are having a quiet offseason, making a few small moves so far. They have openly shopped last winter’s main acquisition, Pat Burrell, but have yet to find a taker (though according to this, they came close). So far, the acquisitions of closer Rafael Soriano and catcher Kelly Shoppach have been their biggest moves.

It’s normal for worst-to-first teams (like the Rays in 2008) to fall back to earth a bit the following year (like the Rays in 2009). The Rays still have plenty of talented young players — and the AL East still has plenty of tough teams. The Yankees and Red Sox are both reloading for 2010, the Jays have a new GM who seems to be finally getting the team back on track, and the O’s have a boatload of almost-ready prospects waiting in the wings.

The Rays have a great young infield — Longoria/Bartlett/Zobrist/Pena — except for catcher, where they’ll be hoping for a rebound season from either Dioner Novarro or Shoppach. Plus, Ben Zobrist will have to show that last year’s breakout was no fluke.

In the outfield, the Rays are hoping that a healthy BJ Upton can bounce back from last year’s abysmal .686 OPS. But that’s not a huge leap of faith, given that Upton clearly has the tools, has elite speed, showed power in the past, and is only 25.

Tampa could use an upgrade in right field. Matt Joyce is seemingly primed for a promotion, though he didn’t do much with his cup of coffee last season. But he should get every chance to win the job in spring training, or at least join a platoon.

Tampa’s rotation isn’t as good as New York’s or Boston’s, at least on paper. But it’s a young rotation that should improve this season as the team’s pitchers get a year older and wiser. Price could break through. So could Wade Davis.

Tampa’s big weakness last season was the bullpen, something they clearly focused on fixing this winter. With a tight budget, they don’t have a lot of room to spend, but with all their young talent, they don’t need to. I hate to say it, but what the Rays really need is for the aging Red Sox and Yankees to suffer a few key injuries.

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The Indians finished tied for last place in the AL Central in 2009, tied with Kansas City. So it’s not realistic to think they’ll go worst to first and take the division.

But the Tribe does have a few things going for them. First, the Central is a weak division, and neither the Twins nor the White Sox did much to improve this winter, while the Tigers arguably got worse with the departures of Placido Polanco, Curtis Granderson and Edwin Jackson.

Second, Cleveland had some pretty crappy luck in 2009, under-performing their Pythagorean record and watching star CF Grady Sizemore struggle with injuries. Sizemore had season-ending elbow and

abdominal surgeries in September and will be back on the field in 2010, as will pitcher Jake Westbrook, who missed the entire 2009 season after Tommy John elbow surgery.

What else does Cleveland have to look forward to? The best player you’ve never heard of, Shin-Soo Choo, will try to improve on his 20/20 2009 season, and his .393 OBP. Carlos Santana, the Indians’ best prospect, could see a lot of action behind the plate.

Matt LaPorta should get a full season’s worth of action at first base, after struggling a bit as an outfielder during a brief call-up last season. Here’s what ESPN’s Kieth Law had to say about LaPorta (ESPN Insider required):

LaPorta’s power is prodigious, and he gets very good extension through the ball; he’s strong enough to power the ball out the other way but can get too pull-conscious. His swing is a little long, but he hasn’t had trouble making contact through Double-A, fanning in just 19 percent of his plate appearances in pro ball. To the extent that he continues that, he can be more than just a three-true-outcomes player and would elevate himself from “above-average regular” to “potential star.”

Elsewhere on the diamond, Luis Valbuena will likely get another shot at second base, though he’s yet to distinguish himself either with the bat or the glove, and this could be his last shot. Shortstop Jhonny Peralta is looking to rebound from a disappointing season, where he OBP’d just .316 and was also sub par with the glove. Meanwhile, 3B Asdrubal Cabrera is looking to prove that his 2009 was no fluke. And, for what it’s worth, Bill James doesn’t think it was.

Oh, and don’t forget about Pronk. He’ll DH until he hurts himself.

Then there’s the rotation. There’s Westbrook, who might take a while to round into form but has been a valuable innings-eater in the past. Behind Westbrook is a ton of young arms.

Let’s start with Mitch Talbot, 26, who the Tribe acquired this winter when they traded Kelly Shoppach to the Rays. Here’s what MLB Trade Rumors had to say about Talbot:

Talbot, 26, pitched mostly at Triple A this year.  He posted a 4.47 ERA, 6.6 K/9, and 3.0 BB/9 in ten starts.  He missed a few months with an elbow injury, so the Rays had him make six starts in the Arizona Fall League to get more work.  He’s out of options, so he’ll presumably compete for a spot in the Indians’ rotation.

After Talbot there’s Carlos Carrasco, who Cleveland got from Philly in the Cliff Lee trade. Carrasco has shown an ability to miss bats at the minor league level, but he’s been inconsistent. There’s Justin Masterson, who Cleveland got from the Red Sox last season, in the Victor Martinez trade. Masterson has been effective as both a starter and a reliever at the major league level. He’s pretty close to a lock to make the rotation. Then there’s Fausto Carmona, Anthony Reyes, Hector Rondon and Jess Todd — all of whom could make the team out of spring training (though Todd is more likely to land in the bullpen).

Except for the bullpen (which is always a crapshoot) that’s about it. Phew! So what do the Indians need in 2010? A little luck, a little patience, and a really good pitching coach.

In November, former pitcher Tim Belcher was named the Indians’ pitching coach after spending the last eight seasons in the organization as a Special Assistant to Baseball Operations. It’s his first coaching gig of any kind (at least, according to his Wikipedia page). Belcher might be a genius. I don’t know. But one thing’s for sure: he’ll need to get the most out of his young staff if the Indians are going to succeed.

I love this squad. The Indians are loaded with young talent. Sizemore, when healthy, is an all-star. Shin-Soo, though not flashy, is a stud. Santana looks like the second coming of Johnny Bench. And LaPorta, given time, should emerge as a slugger.

Like last year’s Oakland squad, this year’s Indians are a tough team to predict, due to a reliance on untested pitchers. And like last season’s A’s, I expect this Cleveland team to take it’s lumps. But watch out for them in 201o — and beyond!

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We’ve said it before and we’ll doubtless say it again, but KC needs players who can take a walk. The Royals were next to last in OBP and walks in 2009.

Power was a problem, too. Kansas City was last in home runs.

And don’t forget about the defense. Kansas City’s fielders were arguably the worst in the AL.

The truth is Kansas City needs to blow it up and start again, because they’re trying to build a winner around a bunch of mediocre talents (except for Zack Greinke and Soria, of course). For KC to contend in 2010, it’d take a miracle. It’s possible Alex Gordon will finally live up to the hype, Billy Butler will take another big leap forward, Alberto Callaspo will remember how to hit, Jose Guillen will improve his craptastic defense, Yuniesky Betancourt will crack the .300 OBP barrier, and Robinson Tejeda will pick up where he left off last September, but those are a ton of big ifs.

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Oakland fans, your long wait is almost over! Yes, 2010 will be the last year of Eric Chavez’s contract! Hazzah!

But aside from that, I’m not sure there’s going to be too much to celebrate in Oak-Town. With no Matt Holliday or Jack Cust in the lineup, the A’s are lacking some serious punch. Aside from the departed players, no one on their 2009 roster surpassed the league average number for Isolated Power (.155). But with the news that the front office is set to acquire Coco Crisp, I think they’ve made their intentions quite clear – they are not going to concern themselves much with this..

Perhaps that sounds harsh. It’s probably more accurate to say that they feel trying to improve their power isn’t worth what it will inevitably cost them. Instead, they’re targeting Crisp, a strong defensive outfielder. On the days that he will start alongside Rajai Davis and Ryan Sweeney, the A’s outfield will rival any other with the glove.

And that should only help their young pitching staff. Out of the six Oakland pitchers with the most starts in 2009, Dallas Braden will be the oldest among them come Opening Day – at the grandfatherly age of 26. Plus, not only are the others younger, they’re more talented. The trio of Brett Anderson, Gio Gonzalez and Josh Outman are already good enough to post league average numbers or better.

But while their defense and pitching should make them competitive, I’m afraid that’s all they will be in 2010. Unless the young pitchers take huge leaps, I don’t see what Billy Beane can do right now to top both Anaheim and Seattle to take the division crown. The most likely of the potential positive outcomes is that the pitchers get some more big league experience while they somehow find enough ABs for prospects Aaron Cunningham and Michael Taylor in that crowded OF. And once they can shed Eric Chavez’s deal, they may be ready to make a run for it in 2011.

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If Opening Day were tomorrow, I’d peg the Mets to finish 3rd in the NL East behind Philly and Atlanta. And it may not even be that close. They’d be trotting out Omir Santos at Catcher, Daniel Murphy at First, Luis Castillo at Second, Jeff Francoeur in Right, Angel Pagan in Left, and Johan Santana would be followed in the rotation by Mike Pelfrey, John Maine, Oliver Perez, and (maybe) Jonathon Niese. On their own, each of these would not pose much of a problem. Collectively, it’s unacceptable for a team that routinely has one of the highest payrolls in baseball and claims to have playoff aspirations.

How did this happen? How did a team that averaged 91 wins from 2006-2008 fall to such mediocrity in the span of one season? Like most things of this nature, it wasn’t one mistake that caused it, but rather, a series of blunders over a long span of time. And at some point, the responsibility needs to fall on the shoulders of the man who’s supposed to be making the tough decisions. And that man is GM Omar Minaya.

The Mets are currently an organization with no apparent plan. They do not have the prospect pipeline of Texas or Tampa Bay. They don’t have the appreciation for defense exhibited by Seattle, or the pitching depth of Atlanta, nor do they have the offense of the Yankees, Red Sox, or Philadelphia. What the Mets do have, however,  is the market cornered on replacement-level catchers. So that’s something.

I could sit here and tell you that the Mets should sign free agents Matt Holliday and Ben Sheets. I could argue that they need to continue rebuilding their farm system that’s beginning to show some promise. But first, what the Mets really need is someone who understands that paying $2M per year to a player like Alex Cora who can easily be replaced by a number of minor leaguers makes no sense. Or that giving Francisco Rodriguez $37M over 3 years when you have too many other holes to fill is insane. Until there is a change at the top, whomever they sign this offseason will merely be a stopgap until the next round of problems.

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