Throughout the offseason, Umpbump has looked at each team and asked, “What do they need?” Yesterday, we wrote about our 30th and final team, the Seattle Mariners. If you missed our take on your favorite team, check out our WTN index.

The Mariners should explore trades, as in trading J.J. Putz... maybe for some run production.

If there was ever a team that needed a fresh start, it’s the Seattle Mariners. The M’s had a disastrous 2008. They were second to last in runs produced, runs scored, and on-base percentage. Their pitching wasn’t golden either, posting a 4.73 ERA, good for fourth worst in the AL, as well a allowing the fourth most runs in the league (754).

Last year’s woes are not foreign to the front office, as they’re plenty aware of these statistics. New GM Jack Zduriencik (try to spell that accurately in one try) put it in perspective before the start of this week’s Winter Meetings:

“We lost 101 games, so there are quite a few areas we can improve on.”

Right on. So where to begin? Well as Ryan Divish from the Tacoma News Tribune writes, you gotta know what you have:

Pitching is not the problem. If anything, the Mariners have a surplus. If Erik Bedard can come back healthy from minor offseason shoulder surgery, the Mariners would have six starters: Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, lefties Jarrod Washburn and Ryan Rowland-Smith and midseason convert Brandon Morrow. Part-time starter Miguel Batista, who led the Mariners in wins in 2007, is also still under contract.

Since pitching isn’t a concern, the Mariners need to focus on run production. They scored 671 runs in 2008 — next to last in the AL. The team’s batting average  was substantially better than their ability to score and have runners on-base, so there’s your problem right there. They need to target middle, or bottom of the order guys that can hit for power and/or players that can get on base with regularity. If they give you 60 or 70 RBIs, then hey, there you go.

The recent signing of Russell Branyan is the first of what will hopefully be a series of moves to improve run production (Branyan collected 20 RBIs), especially so now that Raul Ibañez rejected arbitration all but sealing his departure. Out of the nine regulars, five scored more than 74 runs or more, and Brenyan’s 24 aren’t a vast improvement (Richie Sexson managed to score 27 before he got dealt).

And why not give Jeff Clement a shot, he still has potential (23 RBI in 66 games) and he should get as many at bats this season as possible.

G.M. Jack Zduriencik is open to anything... really... ask him...

So with that in mind, it’s not surprising that Zduriencik let it be known that the Mariners are open to trade discussions, and that almost all of his players are open to suggestions. Zduriencik won’t make a deal just to make a headline; the Mariner’s have been a case study in big-name-itis (see Beltre, Adrian and the aforementioned Sexson). But exploring a trade for Jarrod Washburn (who’s on his final year) could be an option.

Truth be told, Zduriencik is being pragmatic in considering his options. Several teams are calling about J.J. Putz, for instance, but the market for closers is loaded this year, so he won’t make a move unless he gets players that will allow the Mariners to build two, three years out. That seems to be Z’s plan (I’m tired of spelling his name, darn it), and for M’s fans, it’s gotta be a refreshing departure from Bill Bavasi.

In a lot of ways Jack Zduriencik is the Barack Obama of Seattle. He’s got a huge job ahead of him and he’s saddled by his predecessor’s horrible mistakes, like trading the entire farm system for Bedard, signing Kenji Jojima to a huge and inexplicable contract and giving Carlos Silva four years and $48 mil. I have no doubt that Big Z is a smart guy and he’s capable of turning this franchise around, but I don’t think it’ll happen overnight.

- What They Need Index -

This obviously may change by the time spring training rolls around, but if I had to pick a dark horse playoff team in 2009, the Cincinnati Reds would get a lot of consideration.

First and foremost, the Reds offense posted a .278 BABiP in 2008, which was the worst figure in all of baseball. Second baseman Brandon Phillips went from .300 and .304 BABiPs in 2006 and ‘07 to a .277. Edwin Encarnacion from .307 and .322 to a .264. Consequently, both of these key figures posted sub-par numbers in 2008. Expect a rebound.

Secondly, there’s that youth movement that’s taking shape in Cincy. In addition to Phillips and Encarnacion, the Reds are stacked with young talent – Joey Votto, Jay Bruce, Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, and Homer Bailey. While it’s highly unlikely that all these players blossom into stars, there’s probably at least two of them who ought to be cornerstones of the franchise for years to come, plus a couple of solid major leaguers. With another year of baseball under their belts, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Volquez wasn’t the only standout in the bunch next season.

But simply waiting for players to mature or rebound won’t be enough. Their team defense was bordering on atrocious in 2008. Not only did their pitchers have to deal with the worst Defensive Efficiency Ratio in MLB (percentage of balls in play that were fielded – basically BABiP from the pitching aspect), the infielders had a .769 Revised Zone Rating (well below the league average .783). When you pitch in a home run happy park like the Great American, you want to keep the ball down. But in the Reds’ case, that wasn’t necessarily a good thing since far too many of the ground balls went through the porous defense.

So the first recommendation would be to find a good defensive shortstop. Jeff Keppinger started 101 games at short and had an OPS+ of 70 and an equally awful .797 RZR and 27 Out of Zone plays. He was hurting them offensively and defensively. With Rafael Furcal spurning Oakland’s offer, he’s still available. If he’s too costly, someone like Cesar Izturis would still be an upgrade.

For left field, the Reds have options. One, they can let Chris Dickerson try and prove that he’s no fluke (he probably is). Two, they can move Edwin Encarnacion there. He was among the worst defensive players in the National League in 2008 but his offensive potential is still too intriguing to give up on him entirely. Moving him to left would allow the Reds to improve defensively in left field (where Adam Dunn started 110 games) and at the hot corner. On the free agent third basemen front, the only name that makes sense is Casey Blake. But I have a feeling he’ll end up signing a deal that exceeds actual value.

There’s also a hole in center field. Mercifully, the Reds decided to just let Corey Patterson go, thus preventing Dusty Baker from giving him another 392 plate appearances despite the fact that the man had an OPS+ of 48. No, that’s not a typo. 48. Jay Bruce also spent some time here in 2008 but his future as I understand it is probably in RF. The future CFer for Cincy could be 24 year-old Drew Stubbs, known for his great range in the outfield. But Stubbs still strikes out too much to project as a star. And although he may one day be ready, he’ll probably struggle big time facing big league pitching. So it makes sense for the Reds to target a defensively capable CFer to a short term deal (Jim Edmonds or Mark Kotsay, anyone?).

And unless they trade Homer Bailey, their rotation should be set – Aaron Harang, Edinson Volquez, Bronson Arroyo, Cueto, and Bailey. I expect Volquez’ numbers to regress a bit, but both Arroyo and Harang (especially if the defense behind them can be improved) should be better. Also, with Jeremy Affeldt signing with San Francisco, the bullpen could use another arm.

Regardless, their primary goal ought to be improving their defense, specifically at short, third, and left. Both the Rays and Brewers were in similar situations last year and a few changes made a big difference for them. So with a bit more luck and better gloves, the Reds could make some noise in the NL Central next year.

- What The Need Index -

Remember when the Brewers’ biggest problem was they had too much starting pitching? CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Dave Bush, Seth McClung and Manny Parra — so many arms and only five rotation spots!

Milwaukee won’t have that problem this year.

The Brewers have shown little interest in brining back the oft-injured Sheets, who is a free agent. And Sabathia is being pursued by the deep-pocketed Yankees. And the Angels. And maybe the Red Sox and Giants.

Milwaukee could simply go with a rotation of Gallardo, Suppan, Bush, McClung and Parra, and that wouldn’t be the end of the world. But would it be enough to get the Brewers back to the playoffs? Doubtful. Milwaukee just barely made the postseason in 2008, and that was with Sabathia doing his best Sandy Koufax impression. Without Sabathia it stands to reason that the Brewers will take a step back. And they can’t afford to take a step back. Not when they play in a division with the Cubs.

Obviously, the Brewers need a starting pitcher to offset the likely losses of Sabathia and Sheets. Who’s a good fit? Randy Wolf? Oliver Perez?

No, you don’t replace Sabathia. You can’t replace Sabathia.

And therein lies the dilemma. Should the Brewers re-sign Sabathia, they’d be committing roughly a quarter of the team’s payroll to just one player. If Sabathia got hurt, that’d be it for Milwaukee. They’d sink or swim with the big-boned ace.

That’s a gamble. But a wise man once said, “[T]he house always wins. Play long enough, you never change the stakes. The house takes you. Unless, when that perfect hand comes along, you bet and you bet big, then you take the house.”

Does Sabathia represent a perfect hand? I don’t know. Nobody does. Nobody knows if a guy of his girth can continue to pitch at an elite level. But if I were the Brewers I’d pay to find out. Because, as another wise man once said, “You can’t lose what you don’t put in the middle. But you can’t win much either.”*

*See what I did there? I mixed my gambling movie quotes. I started with a quote from “Ocean’s 11″ and ended with a quote from “Rounders.” Mixing movie quotes is a highwire act. A lesser blogger might have bungled it. But you’re in good hands here.

Also, I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Brewers could use a new back-end reliever. For much of 2008 Eric Gagne closed games for Milwaukee. After that project failed, the Brewers turned to Soloman Torres. Now Gagne is gone and Torres is retired. Maybe Brian Fuentes would be a good fit? Or Brandon Lyon? Or Milwaukee could trade Mike Cameron for a power bullpen arm, and move Rickie Weeks to center field.

Finally, I feel obliged to mention that Corey Hart was terrible in 2008 and if he can’t improve on last season’s .300 OBP then the Brewers are totally screwed. Rickie Weeks, meanwhile, had his usual decent OBP and crappy batting average. If the Brewers can find a way to combine Weeks and Hart into one super player (Rickie Hart? Corey Weeks?), then they’ll be in business.

-What They Need Index-

Really, I think this post could end right there.

In fact, I think it does.

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Okay, FINE. I couldn’t do that. I’m sorry.

But the Texas Rangers really do need some freakin’ pitching already. I mean, they were basically first in all the offensive categories, and basically last in all the pitching categories. It doesn’t get much more clear than that.

But fortunately, the Rangers actually have a farm system loaded with pitching, some of which could be ready as early as 2009. I’ll quote Kevin Goldstein at Baseball Prospectus here so you’ll believe me:

…the Rangers have one of the deepest and most talented systems in the minors, especially when it comes to pitching. Neftali Feliz and Derek Holland are both high-ceiling power arms who could be ready as early as mid-to-late 2009. The 2007 draft netted top-level high-school pitchers Michael Main, Blake Beavan, and Neil Ramirez, while a recent focus on international talent produced a stunning rotation at short-season Spokane that included Ramirez and lefty Martin Perez. Their 2008 first-round selection, Justin Smoak, fell into their lap and was far better than the 11^th overall pick that they acquired him with.

Yes, even this kind of pitching.

To acquire perhaps even more pitching (or maybe a corner outfielder), the Rangers also have an excess of something that a bunch of other teams need very badly, something that is all too rare: catching. Legitimate, not-old catching. With upside. Aside from Gerald Laird, who’s the old man of the bunch at 29, they’ve got three kids: Jarrod Saltalamacchia (the youngest), and Taylor Teagarden (the eldest), and Max Ramirez (the well-adjusted middle child). Ker-ching, ker-ching!

One other thought: since they have a ton of pitching prospects in the pipeline, it might be a good idea to find a veteran innings-eater while the young guns are developing. Paul Byrd? Jon Garland, who is expected to decline arbitration? Carl Pavano is looking for a place to prove himself — weeks ago, it was rumored that he and Florida had mutual interest, and recently, the Mets were mentioned, but I think Texas might be a better fit than New York. The Rangers are rumored to be among six teams wooing Randy Johnson — he isn’t my definition of an “innings eater” anymore, but the 45 year old would at least put some butts in the seats and give the kids a mentor. (He seemed to relish the role in Arizona.)

Anyway, yeah: pitching. Young pitching, old pitching, fat pitching, thin pitching, one pitching, two pitching, red pitching, blue pitching. That’s what Texas needs.

-What They Need Index-

What could I say about the future of the Houston Astros that won’t make me sound like a hater?

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Well…

You can still probably get away with calling Carlos Lee “pudgy” instead of “obese”. Does that count?

The 2008 Houston Astros was the oldest squad in the National League. Out of those who accumulated at least 200 ABs last season, only Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence were younger than 30. Wandy Rodriguez was the only 20-something pitcher who started at least four games – and he was 29. If you’re this old, then you’d better be good. But the Astros weren’t. Sure, they won 86 games but they were outscored by their opponents by 31 runs for the year. This was very much a run-of-the-mill team except for the fact that the vast majority of their roster are on the downsides of their careers. And with their last remaining prospects dealt away in the Miguel Tejada trade, there’s no help in the pipeline. Their short term future is mediocrity, which will be immediately followed by awfulness. Unless, of course, they do what they should have done a year ago and blow up the team.

After a great season, Lance Berkman’s value is not going to be this high ever again. The Big Puma (he looks more like a bear to me… Can we just call him the Bear instead?) turned in one of the best offensive years of his career with a line of .312/.420/.567. That’s not to say that moving him will be easy. Berkman’s contract is guaranteed until 2010 with a team option in 2011. However, he also has a full no-trade clause. Would guaranteeing that 2011 option year plus playing for a contending team be enough to coax Berkman into waiving that no-trade? It’s possible. But whomever takes that deal will pay him $44M over the next three years, so the guy’s not cheap. Furthermore, he’ll be 33 come Opening Day which should give teams pause before pulling the trigger. When it’s all said and done, however, Berkman will be more valuable to another team than he’s going to be in Houston over those three seasons.

A similar case could be made for Ty Wigginton, who unexpectedly had an OPS+ of 128 while primarily playing third base. Unless Chipper Jones becomes a free agent this offseason, Wigginton would probably attract far more interest than any other third baseman on the market.

As for the other big names, taller obstacles would need to be cleared. Ace Roy Oswalt is still among the best in the National League but his contract is long and huge (that’s what she said). The 31 year-old is due $45MM over the next three seasons plus a team option and no-trade. And with his slight frame (listed at 6 feet, 170lbs), there will be questions regarding future durability. Tejada only has one year remaining on his deal, but it’s for $13MM and he hit like an average shortstop as an Astro with subpar defense thrown in. Plus, Carlos Lee is an immovable object, literally and figuratively (although I don’t know which is which). Two years ago, the Astros signed him to an absurd $100MM deal that runs through 2012. Lee is still expected to be an offensive contributor for the near future, but I just cannot fathom someone taking on that contract.

Will this fix everything? Absolutely not. For one, Ed Wade is their GM so I can’t be confident that he’ll be able to get anything worthwhile in return even if he were to wheel and deal. And this is an organization with no young cornerstone players (although Pence has a shot to fill that role) so it’s going to be a long climb back into contention. Perhaps I am being too bullish about the NL Central next season but I just cannot foresee a scenario where the Houston Astros have much of a shot.

If you were to twist my arm, however, and dare me to give this team and their fans a reason to hope in 2009, here’s what must happen.

It would be a given that all of last year’s contributors would have to stay healthy. Ones of the J.R.s – Towles or House – would have to become at least a good option at the catcher’s spot because Brad Ausmus is awful and should not be brought back. Miguel Tejada needs to reverse his decline and prove that his poor season was a fluke. Hunter Pence needs to learn how to take a pitch and raise his OBP above .350 to be considered a good player in my book. And although I’m not a fan of his defense, Pence also ought to be moved back to centerfield. His defense won’t help you much, but his bat will profile better there than at the corner OF spots. Why is the defensive hit worth it? Cuz’ Michael Bourn should never start. Ever. He’s a defensive replacement until he proves otherwise. Or they can go out and sign Jim Edmonds. Although a repeat of his Chicago success is unlikely, the guy’s convinced me that he’s not quite done yet. At the very least, if he can repeat his plate discipline and defense, he’d be an upgrade.

On the mound, the Astros have two above-average pitchers in Oswalt and Wandy. But beyond that, there’s not much. Bringin Randy Wolf back is a possibility, but his past performances indicate that his numbers in Houston last year are simply unrepeatable. Chris Sampson is an underrated arm and he can solidify the back of a rotation. For the other spots, Wade should be looking for pitchers who can keep the ball down against right-handed hitters since the short left field porch at Minute Maid Park is a killer (another reason why Wolf is probably a bad match). Why not take a crack at Brad Penny on a one-year deal? Their division hopes are a roll of the dice anyway. May as well make this one a high-risk pick.

- What They Need Index -

Adam Dunn could be the bargain of the offseason

Due to a scheduling snaffu (and Nick not reading his email) both he and I wrote posts about what the Angels need. Since we largely agree when it comes to the halos’ shortcomings, I won’t bore you with the post that I wrote. But I will further one point that he made.

Both Nick and I agree that Mark Teixeira probably isn’t worth all the money and years he’ll demand. Nick pointed out that there are cheaper options out there. Let me suggest one in particular. The Angels should sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now, as he may come surprisingly cheap. How cheap? Recently, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to a couple of officials who suggested Dunn might have to settle for a contract in the three-year, $36MM range. And today, Buster Olney says while “there had been talk during the summer of Adam Dunn getting $15 million a year this winter, now his salary range might be little more than half of that.”

If that’s true, that’s an absolute steal. Think about it — $12MM over three years is the same contract Jose Guillen got. $8MM a year is Adam Eaton money. I know Dunn strikes out a ton and he can’t catch a cold, but he’s a mortal lock to hit 40 homers (in the last four seasons he’s hit exactly 40). The Angels need to sign Adam Dunn. They should do it now. Right now. Go! Sign him!

The one thing that is keeping the Angels from another World Series title more than anything – more than even their sad devotion to Garret Anderson and Gary Matthews Jr. – is their inability to win in the postseason.  The Angels won 100 games last year in the regular season, but flamed out yet again in the first round of the playoffs, getting routed by the Red Sox.

I don’t think the Angels have to worry too much about the regular season.  Their division only has four teams, and the other three – the A’s, Rangers, and Mariners – are all in varying states of disarray ranging from total to utter.

Doitdoitdoit! You know you want to!

I also don’t think the Angels need to resign their impending free agents.  Texiera is good, but 1B is the easiest hole to fill and at the price he is going to command he will not be worth it.  K-Rod will also not be worth the price and the years required, given his visibly declining skills. And I don’t think I even have to get into why its unnecessary to try to resign guys like Jon Garland or Anderson.

No, what the Angels should spend all their money on is the one quantity that you need more than any other in the playoffs, which is pitching acery.  I strongly advise that they take all of the money they save on K-Rod and Texiera, plus add in the money Arte Moreno always manages to dig out of his couch every year to sign some lame veteran, and use it to sign Derek Lowe and CC Sabathia.

Sabathia is the best pitcher on the market, and Lowe is a near-ace who rarely gets injured.  Slot them in front of Joe Saunders, John Lackey, and Jered Weaver and you will have the ass-kickinest rotation anybody ever saw.

No need to sign position players. You can just fill in holes with all those juicy position player prospects you kept blocking for all those years with Gary Matthews.  You know – your Brandon Woodses, Reggie Willitses, and Kendry Morali.

Now that the rest of the AL West sucks so hard, this is a golden opportunity for you.  You don’t even have to be that good to win 95 games in the regular season, so just build your roster for the postseason.

- What They Need Index -