The emerging consensus around baseball is that former White Sox starting pitcher Jose Contreras is old and just about washed up. Certainly, his traditional stats of a 5-13 ERA and a 5.42 ERA do little to convince you otherwise.

Which is why I was shocked when I looked at Alejandro’s White Sox WAR pie and saw that Contreras has actually been the fifth most productive player on the White Sox this year, with a 2.3 WAR. Clearly some investigation was warranted.

Reports out of Colorado are that GM Dan O’Dowd’s first choice for a replacement starter was Brad Penny, but that manager Jim Tracy, who had had to deal with Penny when he managed the Dodgers, was against acquiring him, so O’Dowd was forced to fall back on Contreras as a second choice.

But looking at Contreras’s FIP this season, it is a mere 4.12, which is significantly better than Brad Penny’s 4.48 FIP when he was signed by the Giants. Indeed, looking at Contreras’s peripherals, they are all right in line with his career norms. In fact, his groundball rate is slightly up, and his line drive and home run rates are slightly down, all of which are good signs for a pitcher.

Well, actually there is one glaring exception. Contreras’s strand rate is at 56.8%, which is one of the lowest strand rates I have ever seen. So basically, Contreras is not letting all that many guys on base, but when he does, almost half of all baserunners score.

Now, some old-school baseball guys might tell you that this is a reflection on the weakness of Contreras’s character, and that he must be somehow “cracking under the pressure” when guys get on base. But given that most stats guys are convinced that strand rate is almost entirely based on luck, and that Contreras’s career mark is a much healthier 67%, a natural conclusion to draw is that the Rockies just got themselves a much better pitcher than they maybe even realized.

For the past few days the White Sox have gone through a torturous road trip that all but killed their post-season hopes. As a result, GM Kenny Williams traded a few of his veterans and now the team fades slowly into irrelevance.

Naturally, the next step is to try and make sense of what went wrong up until this point and what better way to do it than with a nice piece of pie. Nick, our master pastry chef, baked this White Sox WAR pie, which tells me a few things:

>> The team relied too much on offensive contributions from players like Gordon Beckham, Jason Nix, and Scott Podsednik. These are guys that never figured in the team’s pre-season plans and were, let’s be honest, overachieving quite a bit.

>> As Nick told me when he baked the pie,

the White Sox have only gotten 9.7 WAR out of their hitters – 2nd worst in the AL, after only the Royals.

BUT, they have gotten 18.5 WAR out of their pitchers, 2nd best in the AL behind only the Red Sox!

In other words, they are the anti-Phillies. The Giants of the AL.  All pitching and no offense.

If there’s one thing I’ve learned about baseball, it’s the idea that if your team is constantly playing low-scoring affairs up until the late innings, your pitching will not hold up. So Nick’s last point  was  certainly evident during their last few games against the Red Sox and Yankees lineups, where they held on to a tie or a slim lead up until the very last at bat. Here’s the pitching vs. offense pie:

>> A bittersweet surprise has been A.J. Pierzynski. I noticed a few weeks ago that he was quietly posting some good offensive numbers, and as his big chunk of pie suggests, he’s the best offensive player on the team. Too bad it’ll be for naught as I doubt he’ll be able to replicate his numbers next year.

>> An unexpected surprise was Alexei Ramirez. Even though he’s posted weaker numbers this year through roughly the same number of at bats than he had last year, his individual WAR is higher than last year’s value.

Knowing now that the White Sox relied too heavily on pitching, it’s no surprising the bottom fell out. The issue is, however, the very little offense they got came from players that have traditionally been mediocre (Podsednik) or are barely in the bigs (Nix, Beckham); and now that Jim Thome is no longer with the team, and Jermaine Dye is a free agent at the end of the year, there’s no question Kenny Williams will have a tough time putting together as potent a line-up as this White Sox once had.

The recent move by Alex Rios from the Blue Jays to the White Sox via a waiver claim is a win for both sides.

The Blue Jays get rid of an albatross of a contract which they had to get out from under if they are going to have any chance of competing going forward, and the White Sox get the one thing they have been searching for in vain for years on end: a viable option in center field.

Sure, the White Sox are overpaying, but unlike the Jake Peavy deal, in which they had to overpay *and* give up premium prospects, to get Rios the Sox did not have to give up any young, cost-controlled talent, so if they play their cards right they will be more than making up for the extra money they are paying Rios by making good use of the talent they did not give up.

But the bottom line is that beggars can’t be choosers. The Sox desperately needed a centerfielder, and Rios is a legit defender in center, with his career 12.8 UZR/150 as a centerfielder, and his cannon arm: since 2004 only Jeff Francoeur and Alfonso Soriano have more outfield assists than Rios’s 55.

Moreover, Rios’s bat will play in center, given his underappreciated defensive talents. The problem for the Blue Jays is that they were playing him in right, due to the even-more-of-an-albatross contract they’d given to Vernon Wells.

But more than just finally giving the South-siders a CF, the move also gives Kenny Williams all kinds of options.  The money owed to Peavy and Rios isn’t really that big a deal, given that if the Sox want, they can clear tons of salary this offseason by letting both Jim Thome and Jermaine Dye walk as free agents, if they want to.

Given Kenny’s enduring fondness for the kind of veterans who got him a ring in 2005, I see a much more likely scenario as being the Sox picking up Dye’s option and resigning Thome to a cheaper deal, if he’s willing, or else, picking up Dye, letting Thome walk, and moving Dye to DH, and leaving an outfield of Scott Podsednik, Rios, and Carlos Quentin.

But in any case, the Rios acquisition combined with Dye’s option gives Kenny a lot of flexibility this offseason to see what’s out there and pursue a wide variety of pieces which he can then shift around to fit different combinations.  By finally filling the gaping hole in center, Rios makes this possible.

As for the Jays, the problem wasn’t so much Rios’s deal in isolation, as the fact that the team was on the hook for at least *four* seemingly un-movable contracts, at positions that are normally the easiest to fill on the free agent market, severely restricting flexibility and completely hindering the team’s ability to retool. In actuality, Rios’s contract was probably the least bad of the four (the others being Wells, Rolen, and Overbay), but given the overall situation, and the fact that Wells is absolutely never ever going anywhere ever, moving Rios if at all possible can only help the team going forward.

In today’s market, Rios’s annual salary can probably sign 3 players who can put up similar production, and given that the Jays were clearly not going to win with the present model, given the division they play in, breaking up the team in some way, no matter how, is the only way to go.

People may wonder why a deal that was so bad for the Jays could be so good for the Sox, but it all comes down to context – the Sox play in a winnable division in which they already have a relatively strong team, desperately needed a centerfielder, and have upcoming payroll flexibility, whereas the Jays play in the AL East, which now has three other juggernauts, had a lot of bad contracts all at once, and have less payroll flexibility in general due to lower revenues and the Canadian dollar.

Hall -of-famer?

Here are the pitchers from the modern era who have thrown a no-hitter and a perfect game in their careers: Jim Bunning, Randy Johnson, Addie Joss, Sandy Koufax and Cy Young.

All but Randy Johnson are in the Hall of Fame (and the Unit will join them soon enough), which begs the question: has Mark Buerhle solidified his status as a HOF pitcher?

His career numbers are certainly respectable (133-90 over a 10-year career), but are nothing that would make him stand out over other great pitchers of the past decade. Except, of course, for those no-no’s and the fact that he was a central part of a World Series championship in 2005.

For his part, Buehrle doesn’t even want to think about it, from Mark Gonzaelz “Hardball” blog:

“I think I got to do a lot more in this game to be thought of in that category,” Buehrle said. “Obviously it’s an honor for people to even mention that. I got (133) wins now. I need a lot more wins and a lot more stuff in this game to be mentioned there.”

Speaking to the Sun-Times’ Joe Cowley, Guillen said he thinks the bar for Hall of Fame induction will get lower:

“Hall of Fame is going to need people to get in,” Guillen said. “You will see people in with 200 wins, 220 or 250. There’s no doubt. You have to. I don’t think any pitcher is going to last long enough to win 300 games.”

And Rob Neyer agrees that Buehrle is good, but thnks he’s not that good:

Buehrle’s career ERA is roughly 23 percent better than the American League average during his 10 seasons. That’s really, really good. That’s better than Bob Feller, Eddie Plank, Juan Marichal, Don Drysdale, and various other Hall of Famers. It’s better than CC Sabathia,Josh Beckett, Jake Peavy, Andy Pettitte, and John Lackey.

But would Joe Fan or Rob Blogger put Buehrle on the same level with those stars?

Probably not, because Buehrle just hasn’t done the sorts of things that get one mentioned among such notables. He has never won 20 games, and has won more than 16 games just once. He has been mentioned in the Cy Young results just once (finishing a distant fifth in 2005). With two notable exceptions — first the no-hitter, and now this — he’s never been particularly overpowering.

So what do we make of it…

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Update below original post.

You can lose your keys. You can lose your iPod. And you can certainly lose your V-card.

But how do you lose a 250lb former Cy Young winner?

Chicago White Sox pitcher Bartolo Colon is scheduled to make a minor league rehab start for Triple-A Charlotte on Thursday.

Problem is, the White Sox don’t know where he is.

“I know where he is supposed to be right now. He’s supposed to be in Charlotte, preparing to start Thursday,” White Sox GM Ken Williams said Tuesday, according to the Chicago Tribune. “Efforts to contact his agent have been successful. Their efforts to contact their client have not been so successful.”

I’m going to refrain from making a joke right now in case it’s something that’s incredibly unfunny. But if it turns out that he’s perfectly fine and was simply wowing the Charlotte locals at a Denny’s with his ability to scarf down 14 Moons Over My Hammies, then it’s sooooo on.

UPDATE: So Colon was located and is supposedly in Charlotte now, having flown in from the Dominican Republic last night. But no one still seems to know why he had gone incommunicado. But Ozzie Guillen has a theory, which is far more entertaining than anything I could have ever dreamed up:

“I worry about Colon because Colon was a big-time Michael Jackson fan,” Guillen said. “He maybe was in LA at his funeral, because I can’t find him. Nobody knows how big of a Michael Jackson fan Colon was. I’m serious. He might be depressed a little bit.”

Of course. Let’s all blame Michael Jackson.

UPDATE TO THE UPDATE: Ok, this is getting ridiculous. Now it’s being reported that Colon was not on the flight to Charlotte last night and is yet to report to the team.  So to Mr. Colon, I have a few questions:

So Bartolo, are you OK?
Are you OK, Bartolo?
So Bartolo are you OK?
Are you OK, Bartolo?
So Bartolo, are you OK?
Are you OK, Bartolo?
You’ve been hit by, you’ve been struck by, a lack of perspective over the death of an individual whom you’ve probably never met (MAYBE).

When a team drafts the General Manager’s son in the fifth round in a huge reach like the White Sox did for Kenny Williams, Jr. in last year’s amateur draft, you should be amused and make cracks about nepotism.

When the same team does the same thing for the General Manager’s OTHER son in the following year… Man, you just have to applaud the size of their balls. They’re HUGE.

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

It’s graduation season! A lot of honors handed out (unless you’re Obama).

So what better time to tackle a topic like Albert Belle’s Hall of Fame candidacy? No better time, says I.

There are two ways to get into the Hall: You’ve got to be very good over a long peroid of time and rack up counting stats, or you’ve got to be dominant.

The chief knock against Belle’s HOF case is that he didn’t play long enough, and therefore didn’t reach any of the milestones that equal automatic HOF induction. No 3,000 hits. No 500 home runs. No 1,500 runs batted in.

But he was pretty dang dominant.

Belle played 12 seasons, longer than Kirby Puckett, Sandy Koufax, and Ralph Kiner. He didn’t quit because he couldn’t hack it. He was forced out by an arthritic hip. He played in 10 full seasons (and parts of two others) and during that peak decade he averaged 37 HR, 120 RBI and a roughly .360 OBP. In 1995 he became the first player to hit 50 doubles and 50 home runs in a season. Even in his last season, when he was hobbling around the bases, he hit .281 with 23 HRs and 103 RBI.

Belle had a better OPS+ than Harmon Kilebrew, Reggie Jackson, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Jim Rice (even if you ignore Rice’s pedestrian final three seasons). And if you’re interested in hardware, Belle made five all-star teams and won five Silver Slugger awards and surely should have won the 1995 AL MVP, except the voters hated him and instead awarded the MVP to Mo Vaughn, who had vastly inferior stats.

I’m not gonna blow smoke up your butts. I know Belle isn’t a slam dunk Hall of Famer. But surely he deserved better than the 3.5% of the vote he got in 2007, which was not enough to even merit another year on the ballot. When Belle retired in 2001, NY Daily News bloviator Bill Madden famously wrote:

Sorry, there’ll be no words of sympathy here for Albert Belle… Belle was a surly jerk before he got hurt and now he’s a hurt surly jerk… Belle’s boorish behavior should be remembered by every member of the Baseball Writers Association when it comes time to consider him for the Hall of Fame.

And they did.

Of course Belle was a jerk. But I don’t care about that. Count me among those who think the Hall of Fame should get rid of its character clause. Sports writers, as Joe Posnanski says, should not be in the business of making character judgments.

Belle should be measured by his on-the-field achievements, and they were numerous.