Continuing our survey of division leaders around baseball, let us turn to the National League…

NL East: New York Mets

The Mets are showing many of the classic signs of an early season fluke; they have had some really good luck with several come-from-behind walk-off wins, they have a ridiculous 17-7 record in one run games, and their win-loss total is higher than their run differential would predect according to the pythagorean expected wins formula.  However, the Mets’ record in one run games and their come-from-behind wins, while certainly involving some luck, are also both indicators of their fantastic bullpen – one of the best in baseball – which keeps them in close games and gives them a chance to come back.  Meanwhile, the Mets have moved to fix their most glaring weakness – the black holes that have been their 4th and 5th starter spots after injuries felled Brian Bannister and Victory Zambrano – by bringing in Orlando Hernandez and Alay Soler to hold the fort until Bannister returns.  With arguably the best everyday lineup in the National League and their nearest rival the Phillies still 4.5 games back and also sporting a win-loss record better than their run differential would predict, the Mets look like a good bet to make the dance in October.  Verdict: For Real

NL Central: Cincinnati Reds

Many observers have been picking the Reds as a fluke this year.  Like the Mets, the Reds have had a tremendous record in one-run games at 13-5, and after all, the thinking goes, the Reds pitching staff has been so awful for so many years that it will have to eventually come down to earth, right? But unnoticed by many, the Reds have significantly improved their pitching staff this year, first by trading for Bronson Arroyo, and then by dumping Dave Williams and calling up Elizardo Ramirez.  Whereas the Reds were last in the National League in ERA last season, this year they have improved to a respectable 7th. Even if Arroyo is not able to maintain his Cy-Young-like numbers all season, the Reds have the more reliable starting five they have had in years.  It is certainly not a great staff by any stretch, but with an already strong hitting attack made even stronger by the emergence of youngsters Felipe Lopez, Brandon Phillips, and David Ross, the offense has been able to cover for the occasional pitching lapse, posting the highest team OPS in the NL.  The Cardinals weakened themselves greatly in the offseason, and although Albert Pujols was able to singlehandedly cancel out the offseason losses for two months, his injury is causing these losses to become more apparent.  The Reds, who have already shown they can play with the big boys by going 6-2 vs. the Cardinals so far, should be able to take advantage and stay in contention all year.  Verdict: For Real

NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamond backs have made a strong showing out west this year.  They just might have the best pitcher on the planet with the astonishingly good sinkerballer Brandon Webb, and their wins and losses exactly matching their expected record of 34-26 and their average 10-11 record in one-run games point to a team that has not been extraordinarily lucky so far.  However, their closest competition, the Dodgers, have been rather unlucky, sporting a run differential significantly better than the that of the Diamondbacks and an expected win-loss of 36-24.  The Dodgers have also suffered through a horrendous amount of injuries to virtually every established player on their team, yet are still only one game behind Arizona.  Meanwhile, an uninspiring Arizona lineup that is 11th in the NL in homers and 12th in walks will find it tough to hang with the rest of the league when it comes to scoring runs.  As the Dodgers get some of their injured stars back into the lineup, they should be able to make a move for control of the division, and San Francisco, Colorado, and San Diego all are within striking range, less than 5 games back, making things tough for a very mediocre Arizona team.  Verdict: Fluke

With the 2006 season just over a third complete, the wheat begins to separate from the chaff and it starts to become clearer which teams might be legitimate playoff contenders and which teams might just be flukes.  So without further ado, let’s have a look at the six current division leaders with an eye towards which teams might still be around in mid October.

AL East: New York Yankees

The Yankees have big pitching problems with the decline of Randy Johnson, the collapse of Aaron Smalls, injuries to Shawn Chacon, Carl Pavano, and Jaret Wright, and one of the weakest bullpens they have ever assembled behind Mariano Rivera.  In addition, serious injuries to Gary Sheffield and Hideki Matsui have depleted the best lineup in either league. But the bottom line is, the Yankees lineup was so ridiculously strong to start the year that it has been able to absorb the losses of Sheffield and Matsui and still continue to make up for the occasional pitching meltdown.  Meanwhile, the Yankees have both outscored and allowed fewer runs than the Red Sox.  Although the Yankees are definitely not a lock to win the division, they will certainly stick around to the very end.  Verdict: For Real

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers have certainly made a strong impression in the first two months, surprising everyone by posting the best record in the Major Leagues as well as the best team ERA.  A few weeks ago, it would have been tempting to say the Tigers were for real. However, the Tigers had built up their amazing numbers by playing almost entirely against teams with losing records. The last 10 games, in which they have gone 3-7 against their main playoff competition in the Yankees, Red Sox, and White Sox, has been a wake-up call, and has shown that the tigers have a ways to go before they can be considered legit.  At this point, to win 95 games, the Tigers would have to go 57-45 the rest of the way, which seems like a pretty tall order with several games left to play against the Yanks, Soxes, and Blue Jays. Verdict: Fluke

AL West: Texas Rangers

The Rangers have surprised a lot of people by pulling ahead in a division many thought would be dominated by the A’s and Angels.  The Rangers have always had a powerful lineup, but this year there have been some pleasant surprises from the pitching staff, including some nice outings by rookies Kameron Loe and John Koronka, and three dazzling starts by recent call-up John Rheinecker. But on the whole, pitching continues to be the achilles heel of the Rangers. Offseason acquisitions Kevin Millwood and Vicente Padilla have been busts, and the Rangers certainly regret trading Chris Young, who has blossomed in San Diego, for Adam Eaton, who has yet to pitch an inning. Meanwhile the lineup, although solid, has definitely been missing the big bat and sparkplug play of Alfonso Soriano (even if not missing his defense at second), and things are going to get a lot tougher once the A’s begin to mount their usual late-season charge and the Angels wake up and remember they are the Angels.  Verdict: Fluke