This is what a really good team’s WAR pie looks like:

What immediately jumps out, in looking at the Yankees WAR pie, is how balanced this team is in terms of how many different players have made significant contributions. An amazing 15 players have contributed at least one full win of value so far this season, making most of the slices in this pie nearly equal in size.

The pie also speaks to how lucky the Yankees have been in avoiding injury–only 25 players have combined to provide a ridiculous 48 wins above replacement already this season. Indeed, the Yankees are still on pace to have at least 8 players hit at least 20 home runs this season, which has never happened before in baseball history, and a big reason why is that the starting lineup has been incredibly healthy all year long, with the exception of A-Rod’s hip injury.

The WAR pie also gives lie to the notion that Mark Teixeira has been far and away the obvious MVP candidate this season. Indeed Mark Teixeira hasn’t even been the most valuable player on his own team, and it isn’t even all that close. Derek Jeter’s new flexibility workout regimen and his resultant resurgence on defense plus a hot year at the plate have helped him post MVP-type numbers, and CC Sabathia has been a rock in the rotation.

Another thing this graph underscores is how much more valuable Brett Gardner is in centerfield, over Melky Cabrera. Although their offensive contributions are similar, as Melky has fattened up, he has lost a step or two on defense, whereas Gardiner is one of the premier defenders in center field by most measures.

Finally, a look at the Yankees balance between offense and defense reveals that like the Phillies, the Yankees are heavily reliant on their offense (although not anywhere quite as bad as the Phils’).  However, this chart is heavily affected by the disastrous performance of the Yankees bullpen in the early months of this season, and would probably not look nearly as unbalanced if you based it only on the performances since June…

The Mets and Yankees recently started selling fruit at their new stadiums. Is it about time? Or is it sacrilege? You decide.

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Monday is Hot Baseball Wife Day here at UmpBump, and today’s honoree is Amber Sabathia, the wife of Yankees ace CC Sabathia.  The former Amber Williams was CC’s high school sweetheart when they were both growing up in Vallejo, California. The couple was married in 2003 and now they have three children, son Carsten Charles Sabathia III, and daughters Jaeden Arie and Cyia Cathleen (ie another “CC”).

Amber Sabathia was pressing her husband hard last offseason to sign with the hometown San Francisco Giants, so they would not have to move to another city, and it was rumored that CC only agreed to sign with the Yankees after Brian Cashman had a private sit-down with Amber to convince her that it was possible to raise kids in New York.

In her free time, Amber is pursuing a college degree in history.

More pictures after the jump…

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While all 2Bs pale in comparison this year to Chase Utley, Ben Zobrist, and Ian Kinsler (whose BABIP is only .238, btw, if you’d like to trade for him in your fantasy league) I found myself caught in the midst of a debate the other day over the relative merits of Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia and Yankee middleman Robinson Cano.

So I did what I do in these situations: I looked at a bunch of numbers. (In this case, all these numbers were up-to-date going into last night’s action.)

Cano is hitting .310/.342/.491. Pedroia’s hitting .304/.377/.423. Pedroia takes 3.90 pitches per plate appearance, while Cano takes 3.38; walks-per-K puts Pedroia at 1.56, Cano at .60. They have each grounded into 13 double plays. They each have 58.5 runs created. Edge? I’d call it even. Cano hits more homers, but Pedroia has more patience at the plate and hits a lot of doubles.

What about baserunning? Cano has 4 stolen bases and has been caught 4 times. Pedroia’s swiped 14 bags and has been caught stealing 5 times. But before you hand the crown to Pedroia, take a look at their EQBRR: 0.54 (Pedroia) vs 0.83 (Cano). Pedroia isn’t actually that fast; he steals those bases with his ninja skills. So while Pedey swipes more bags, it seems Cano is actually the better baserunner. Edge? I guess I’ll give it to Cano, since the value of a stolen base is marginal.

Looking at some more advanced metrics, Pedroia’s wOBA is .357 to Cano’s .356, and his wRAA is 10.1 to Cano’s 9.4. And Pedroia’s wRC also outstrips Cano’s by a narrow margin, 59.9 to 57.5. Pedroia’s WAR: 2.8. Cano’s? 2.5. Pedey has a RAR of 27.6, while Cano has a RAR of 25. VORP: Pedroia is at 22.0 to Cano’s 22.5. Perhaps Pedroia has a slight edge overall here, but even so, am I the only one who feels like we’re splitting hairs?

On defense, Cano has turned 6 more DPs than DP, and Pedroia has 5 errors to Cano’s 3. But again, before you declare Cano the victor, keep in mind that Pedroia’s UZR is 5.8, and has been a positive number ever full season in the bigs so far. Cano’s current rating of 0.7 marks only the second time in five seasons (counting this one) that he’s put up a positive UZR. Edge? Pedroia.

One area where Pedroia has Cano handily beat is WPA (win probability added), which puts Pedroia at 0.93 and Cano at -1.92 — the worst of any regular second baseman in MLB.

Pedroia has two All-Star nods, an MVP trophy, a Rookie of the Year award, a Gold Glove, and (somewhat hilariously) a Silver Slugger. He’s 25 and is signed to a $40.5 million, 6-year contract (2009-2014) with a club option for 2015. In three full seasons, he has an OPS+ of 111.

Cano was a ROY runner up, has one All-Star nod, a silver slugger, and came in 22nd in MVP voting in 2006. He’s 26. He’s signed to a 4 year, $30 million contract (2008-2011), with club options for ‘12 and ‘13. In five seasons, Cano has an OPS+ of 110.

Can you tell the difference? I’m not sure I can.

Jon Heyman Tweets:

halladay preferences (according to pal): 1. win. 2. quiet. 3. spring in fla.; thinks he’d OK Phil, Stl, NY, Bos, etc. #MLB

Doc wants to go someplace quiet and his four candidates include New York, Boston and Philly? That makes sense.

I’m not sure whether it’s the new stadium or just a lot of guys peaking at the same time, but assuming current levels of play and no major injuries, all nine members of the Yankees everyday starting lineup are on pace to hit at least 20 home runs this season.

If the Yankees could pull of this feat, they would shatter the previous record of 7 players on a single team with at least 20 homers, shared by the 1996 Orioles, the 2000 Blue Jays, and the 2005 Rangers. Not surprisingly, the Yankees are currently second in the majors with 116 homers, behind only the Rangers, who have 117.

The weakest link out of the starting 9 is Melky Cabrera, but even he already has 8 homers despite being benched for most of April.

At this point it is still probable that at least one or two players will slump or get hurt to the point that they fall short of all nine players hitting 20 bombs or more, but at least for half a season, the Bronx Bombers have lived up to their famous nickname by absolutely crushing the ball.  And that despite the team’s most powerful hitter, A-Rod, missing a month and a half out of the first three.

This past Friday, Nick wrote a post with the simple premise – if you can cut one person from each team in the National League, who would it be? And people got angry. Very, very angry. They called us names. They said that it was “the most pointless story I’ve ever read” and “one of the dumbest things I’ve ever read” and other “I’ve ever read” type comments. But they also said that “David Eckstein makes pitchers work so hard to get him out, that alone has value”. So we stopped paying attention after that.

Naturally, we’re back for more with the same premise applied to the American League. And if any of you brings up “leadership” as a reason Player X ought to stay, I swear to god, I will go back to my room in my mother’s basement, create an Everquest character that looks like you and destroy it.

Texas Rangers – Vicente Padilla: Starting off with an easy one here. From the moment the Rangers re-signed Padilla to a 3 year deal worth $33.75MM deal prior to the ‘07 season, it really was only a matter of time until this would end badly. In addition to posting poor numbers overall in Arlington, he’s had a poor reputation behind the scenes for years. The process for cutting him may have already started as the club put him on waivers this past week.

The Angels of The Angels  – Gary Matthews, Jr: Every time Matthews puts on a uniform, the Angels’ chances of winning seem to decrease. Another poor signing from the ‘06-’07 off season, Little Sarge has since posted a line of .248/.319/.386, which would be awful for a catcher, let alone for an OFer with a $50MM contract. If that weren’t bad enough, Matthews is also a sub-par defensive player, which should really make you wonder why the Angels haven’t cut the cord yet.

Seattle Mariners – Yuniesky Betancourt: When you have a starting shortstop who can’t hit, you tout his defense. When you have a shortstop who can’t hit or field, you have a big problem. Not only has Betancourt posted a .302 OBP in his career with little to no pop, he has also had a negative UZR (Ultimate Zone Rating) over that span. At 27 years old, we’ve already got a very good idea as to what kind of arc his career will take, and that arc is pretty damned flat.

Oakland A’s – Eric Chavez: It’s always sad when promising careers get derailed by injuries. But it’s worse when it drags on. Chavez has been off the field more than actually on it since 2007 and even when healthy enough to play, his performance has been on the decline since 2005. Having admitted that one more back injury would end his career, it’d be a great story if he were to show that he’s not done yet. Chavez is determined to do so, but one has to wonder if that’s actually in his best interest long term. I’m obviously not in a position to tell a player – especially one that’s only 31 years old – to walk away forever. But as a human being, I would hate to see his condition worsen and I fear that a return to the field will cause just that.

Detroit Tigers – Magglio Ordonez: If you consider this one to be heartless, I can’t really blame you since this is entirely driven by money. Magglio’s contract states that if he makes 213 more trips to the plate this year, his 2010 option worth $18MM becomes guaranteed (there’s a similar option for 2011). At this point in his career, Ordonez is not an $18MM player, nor is he all that close to that. His power is nowhere to be seen as he’s been unable to hit the ball into the air (56% of his batted balls have been grounders). I’m sure that the Players Association lawyers would have a field day with this cut though. Luckily enough, I don’t have to deal with such things (why can’t GMs cut players for financial reasons? I don’t get it).

Minnesota Twins – Alexi Casilla: While neither should be given a bat, both Carlos Gomez and Nick Punto at least have value as defensive replacements. And it’s probably too early to give up on a talent like Delmon Young, who really needs to learn how take ball four. But Casilla? The man has logged over 800 ABs in AAA and AA, during which time he has shown that neither his bat nor his glove is good enough to compensate for the other. His biggest asset as a minor league player was his ability to take a walk (which wasn’t exactly eye-popping to begin with). But thus far in his MLB career, Casilla has only gotten on base 30% of the time while slugging .318. Unless you’re saving dozens of runs with the glove, it’s impossible to swallow that. Sure, he’s still cheap. But there are better options out there for the same cost.

Chicago White Sox – Jimmy Gobble: Gobble has pitched in parts of seven major league seasons thus far in his career and his ERA in those years reads thusly: 4.61, 5.35, 5.70, 5.14, 3.02, 8.81, and 7.00 (so far in ‘09). Them’s ain’t pretty. Presumably, he keeps finding work because he’s a lefty. Problem is, lefties have a line of .266/.323/.460 against him so he’s not even useful against them. So I ask you, why does this man have a job? And for the record, I could have also picked anyone who has logged an inning in CF this year for the South Siders. But I’d be damned if I could pick one.

Kansas City Royals – Jose Guillen: I really could’ve put every Royal who’s 26 years old or over (not named Gil) into a hat for this one. Sidney Ponson? Absolutely. David DeJesus? If the man did not bat lefty, he may not have a job in baseball (kids, learn how to bat from the left side). And while I’m no Mike Jacobs fan (and Kila Ka’aihue is clearly more than ready to replace him as DH), he could at least serve as a cheap power bat off the bench.  Guillen, however, is by far the highest-paid hitter on the team and puts up numbers that simply aren’t good enough to let you ignore the headaches he causes within the clubhouse. And while he’ll continue to be among the top RBI guys on the Royals (which says more about the Royals lineup than it does Guilen) due primarily to his spot in the batting order, his glove gives up as many runs as his bat creates. If I were a Royals player, I’d probably resent the fact that the highest paid guy doesn’t offer much in terms of production nor seems to give a rat’s ass.

Cleveland Indians – Jeremy Sowers: In Single-A, Sowers struck out an impressive 9.5 batters per 9 innings pitched. In AA, that number dropped to a still-respectable 7.7. In AAA, down to a slightly worrisome 5.8. Notice a trend here? Then it really should come as no surprise that in the Majors, Sowers is striking out merely 4.1/9IP in the 300+ innings he’s logged. When you miss so few bats, batted balls tend to find the outfield grass more often (or worse). He had success in his rookie year winning 7 out of his 14 starts to go along with a 3.57 ERA. But his peripherals were poor (3.6 K/9IP, .259 BABiP), and therefore no one should be surprised to learn that his career ERA has been trending down ever since. Sowers just doesn’t seem to have the stuff to consistently get guys out at the big league level. And Cleveland would be better off giving someone else – anyone else – a start in his place.

Boston Red Sox – Julio Lugo: Take it away, Sarah Green!

New York Yankees – Angel Berroa: If you’re a SS, one good season buys you a career of job security as a utility infielder. Back in 2003, Berroa popped 17 dingers and has been living off that accomplishment ever since. Problem is, the man seems to have no idea how to play 3rd base, where the Yankees have been using him as a backup. Lord knows that you’re not keeping the guy around for his offense (career weighted-OBP of .297). So if he can’t do the job you’re asking him to do, why are you keeping him around at all?

Toronto Blue Jays – Kevin Millar: I initially had Vernon Wells here, but  after posting great numbers upon his return from a hamstring injury last August, he deserves a chance to prove once again that he’s not done (though moving him to LF IMMEDIATELY is a good idea). So I decided to go with a less controversial pick in Millar, a guy who looks to be about done at the age of 37. Sure, he may be entertaining in the clubhouse, but so’s the equipment manager (see enough jockstraps and I’m sure you develop a sense of humor). Millar’s defense is not nearly good enough to justify using him as a defensive replacement, nor is his bat useful enough as a pinch hitter. I’m sure it’s not easy to cut guys you like as human beings. But the point of the game is to win and Millar doesn’t help you accomplish that goal.

Tampa Bay Rays – Troy Percival: With a fastball that barely hits 90-91 mphs these days, Percival’s days as a reliable reliever are gone. In his younger years, his teams could live with him walking roughly 4 batters per nine innings because he struck out so many more. Nowadays, that’s getting harder and harder as his body begins to break down (Now go back and reread this paragraph replacing Percival’s name with Jason Isringhausen’s. Still makes perfect sense).

Baltimore Orioles – Mark Hendrickson: Centuries from now, when historians discover that there used to be a sport called “baseball” (and that there used to be something called “land”, but that’s another topic), I’d like to think that they’ll stumble across Hendrickson’s career numbers and immediately think “Holy %(*@ing mother of God! How the ^!#* did this guy keep finding teams willing to pay him &*($-loads of money?” With Scott Elarton still unsigned, Hendrickson has the highest career ERA (5.10) of any active pitcher who has logged over 800 innings or made 125+ starts. And the NBA community is forever left wondering how good this career 41.6% shooter could have been… (Here’s a hint. Not very.)

Ya got any problems with these, punk? Well, do ya? That’s what the comments section is for. Just remember. I can annihilate you in Everquest.

The rate at which home runs have been flying out of the new Yankee Stadium has been a hot topic since the first weeks of the season, but up to now the statheads have been urging caution and calm. “Small sample size” they have cried.

But as we close in on the two month mark, it is becoming increasingly more clear that New Yankee Stadium is one of the greatest home run parks of all time.

Indeed, in only its first season, the stadium is already on pace to smash the mark for most home runs hit at a ballpark in a single season.  The current record was set at pre-humidor Coors Field in 1999, when 303 homers were bashed (making Coors only stadium ever to surpass 300 thus far). But with 82 homers hit at Yankee Stadium already in only 22 games, the stadium is on pace for a ridiculous 317 homers this year.

Averaged out, an astounding 3.91 homers per game have been hit in the Bronx so far this season. By comparison, 1.98 homers were hit per game at Old Yankee Stadium last season, which is right around the typical American League average of about 2.00 per game.

What went wrong

So what exactly is wrong with New Yankee Stadium?  Well, recent wind studies have demonstrated that the new ballpark is about 20% more likely than the old one on any given day to have a wind blowing out to the outfield of 10 mph or more, with the likelihood increasing even further in the spring and fall. Given that a tail wind of 10 miles per hour will cause a typical borderline homerun ball to travel about 25 feet further, a significant assist that is only increased as the windspeed goes up.

Just watching the highlights of the homers hit out of New Yankee Stadium so far, this wind assist is plain to see. Anything hit fairly high in the air takes off once it gets into the wind, especially to right field. Guys are hitting home runs one handed, or even when they get jammed or get too far under the ball.  And when players actually do hit the ball right on the screws, they are hitting monstrous bombs.

Only adding to the homer woes, the stadium designers pulled a fast one with the dimensions in right field.  Although the most often cited dimensions, such as down the foul lines and to straightaway center are the same as the old park, thus preserving “Yankee tradition,” the designers flattened out the sharp dogleg in the right field wall, meaning that in some places, the right field wall is as much as nine feet closer to home plate in the new stadium.

This is pretty huge, and very significant when the old stadium was already legendary for having one of the shortest right field porches in the entire game (allegedly designed for the Babe).  Already this season somewhere in the region of ten homers have been hit out to right field that would not have gone out in the old stadium, just judging by distance alone, before wind is even taken into account.

What to do now

It’s obviously a little too late to go back and fix a $1.5 billion stadium.  And I’m actually of the opinion that having different stadiums that play differently is one of baseball’s charms, unlike football or basketball where the dimensions are always identical.

But what the Yankees do need to do is build a team that will be best suited to their stadium. And they need to start now.  Here are my recommendations:

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